Modified Jones-Faddy skew t-distribution captures asymmetry in stock returns.
problem Negative skew and positive mean in stock returns due to broken symmetry of stochastic volatility.
method Modified Jones-Faddy skew t-distribution applied to split gains and losses, using stochastic differential equations for stock returns and volatility.
result The modified distribution effectively captures the asymmetry in daily S&P500 returns, including its tails.
Realized moments of higher order computed from intraday returns are introduced in recent years. The literature indicates that realized skewness is an important factor in explaining future asset returns. However, the literature mainly focuses on the whole market and on the monthly or weekly scale. In this paper, we cond…
Study shows economic policy uncertainty increases stock market crash risk during pandemic.
problem Impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock market crashes during the pandemic.
method Used GARCH-S model to estimate daily skewness as a proxy for crash risk, analyzed data from US stock market.
result Significantly negative correlation between economic policy uncertainty and stock market crash risk, stronger during pandemic.
Distributions of assets returns exhibit a slight skewness. In this note we show that our model of endogenous price formation \cite{Reimann2006} creates an asymmetric return distribution if the price dynamics are a process in which consecutive trading periods are dependent from each other in the sense that opening price…
Analyzes multi-day stock returns, showing linear volatility and mean dependence.
problem Linear dependence of volatility and mean in accumulated stock returns.
method Modified Jones-Faddy skew t-distribution analysis.
result Linear dependence of volatility and mean on the number of days of accumulation.
Study shows COVID-19 increases stock market crash risk in China.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on stock market crash risk in China.
method Estimated conditional skewness using GARCH-S model and constructed fear index from Baidu Index data.
result Conditional skewness reacts negatively to daily growth in total confirmed cases, indicating increased crash risk.
Model accurately calibrates FX market skew for exotic options.
problem Inconsistent prices from different models for FX derivatives.
method Fully parameterized local volatility model with numerical methods.
result Model provides reliable prices for daily trading.
This paper formulates dynamic density functions, based upon skewed-t and similar representations, to model and forecast electricity price spreads between different hours of the day. This supports an optimal day ahead storage and discharge schedule, and thereby facilitates a bidding strategy for a merchant arbitrage fac…
There are some statistical anomalies in the Chinese stock market, i.e., positive return skewness, anti-leverage effect (positive returns induce higher volatility than negative returns); and reverse volatility asymmetry (contemporaneous return-volatility correlation is positive). In this paper, we first confirm the exis…
All too often measuring statistical dependencies between financial time series is reduced to a linear correlation coefficient. However this may not capture all facets of reality. We study empirical dependencies of daily stock returns by their pairwise copulas. Here we investigate particularly to which extent the non-st…
Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk and Conditional Autoregressive Expectile have become two popular approaches for direct measurement of market risk. Since their introduction several improvements both in the Bayesian and in the classical framework have been proposed to better account for asymmetry and local non-l…
Regression Trees analyze stock returns, revealing market excess return as the most informative factor.
problem Understanding informational content of three factors in stock returns.
method Joint regression tree analysis of daily stock return data for 5 major US corporations.
result The market excess return factor is always the most informative in all cases (solo and joint).
We propose a model for price formation in financial markets based on clearing of a standard call auction with random orders, and verify its validity for prediction of the daily closing price distribution statistically. The model considers random buy and sell orders, placed following demand- and supply-side valuation di…
The study models and forecasts natural gas prices using skewed, heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Modeling and forecasting natural gas prices with heavy tails and conditional heteroscedasticity.
method State-space time series models under skewed, heavy-tailed distributions.
result The proposed model reduces out-of-sample CRPS by 13% for Day-Ahead and 9% for Month-Ahead forecasts.
Cross-sectional signatures of market panic were recently discussed on daily time scales in [1], extended here to a study of cross-sectional properties of stocks on intra-day time scales. We confirm specific intra-day patterns of dispersion and kurtosis, and find that the correlation across stocks increases in times of …
The paper defines MTCov for skewed elliptical distributions.
problem No specific problem stated, but dealing with skewed elliptical distributions.
method Defined MTCov for generalized skew-elliptical distributions and compared with skewed and non-skewed normal distributions.
result Special formula for MTCov of generalized skew-elliptical distributions.
The paper analyzes skewness and kurtosis measures for skew-elliptical distributions.
problem Examining skewness and kurtosis measures for skew-elliptical distributions.
method Deriving exact expressions for skewness and kurtosis measures for skew-elliptical distributions, constructing test statistics, and comparing measures through simulations and real data analysis.
result Exact expressions and test statistics for skewness and kurtosis measures for various skew-elliptical distributions.
The paper calculates moments and conditional risks for skewed elliptical distributions.
problem Estimating moments and tail conditional risks for skewed elliptical distributions.
method Derives explicit expressions for multivariate doubly truncated moments and conditional risks for generalized skew-elliptical distributions.
result Explicit formulas for multivariate doubly truncated moments and conditional risks are derived for various skewed elliptical distributions.
New model predicts ICU patient stays more accurately.
problem Efficient ICU bed allocation under resource constraints.
method Temporal Pointwise Convolutional Networks (TPC) combining temporal and pointwise convolutions.
result Significant performance improvements over LSTM and Transformer models.
Proposes a method to identify elements in a skewness matrix for multivariate skew-elliptical distributions.
problem Label switching issue in Bayesian estimation of skewness matrix.
method Imposes a positive lower-triangular constraint and uses Bayesian sparse estimation with horseshoe prior.
result Successfully estimates the true structure of skewness dependency.
Enhances knot counting invariant using skew braces.
problem Counting invariant for virtual knots and links.
method Introduces new invariants using skew brace structures.
result New invariants not determined by the counting invariant.
Study the geometry and dynamics of skew evolutes and involutes, related to bicycle kinematics.
problem Understanding the geometry and dynamics of skew evolutes and involutes.
method Investigate the skew evolute and involute maps, comparing them to bicycle kinematics.
result The skew evolute and involute maps have properties analogous to bicycle kinematics.
Study on simplicity of Lie skew braces, proving new results for compact cases.
problem Simplicity of Lie skew braces, focusing on compact connected cases.
method Reviewing correspondence, investigating ideals and rigidity, proving main result for compact Lie skew braces.
result Compact connected simple Lie skew braces are either trivial or have simple underlying Lie groups.
The paper examines smoothness in graded skew Clifford algebras.
problem Smoothness of graded skew Clifford algebras.
method Investigation of differential smoothness.
result Results on the differential smoothness of graded skew Clifford algebras.
The paper introduces a new method for forecasting financial risk using quantile-based modeling.
problem Forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for financial returns.
method Semiparametric approach using restricted quantile regression to model the conditional scale of financial returns.
result The method provides robust, distribution-free estimates of extreme losses and captures risk dynamics.
A skew loop is a closed curve without parallel tangent lines. We prove: The only complete surfaces in euclidean 3-space with a point of positive curvature and no skew loops are the quadrics. In particular, ellipsoids are the only closed surfaces without skew loops. We also prove results about skew loops on cylinders an…
Simple method solves Quanto Skew problem.
problem Quanto Skew problem in Equities and FX.
method Analytical method that accommodates Equity and FX volatility skew.
result Highly efficient and fast performance.
Skewness dispersion predicts future stock market returns, especially in months with monetary policy announcements.
problem Predicting future stock market returns using skewness dispersion.
method Cross-sectional analysis of firm-level realized skewness and stock market returns.
result Skewness dispersion is a significant predictor of future stock market returns, robust to various estimation methods.
New topological biquandles created using skew braces.
problem Creating nontrivial topological biquandles.
method Using the concept of skew braces.
result Constructs nontrivial examples of topological biquandles.
Examines differential smoothness in a specific skew PBW extension family.
problem Differential smoothness in skew PBW extensions.
method Investigates a specific family of skew PBW extensions.
result Results on differential smoothness of the family.
We simulate a series of daily returns from intraday price movements initiated by microstructure elements. Significant evidence is found that daily returns and daily return volatility exhibit first order autocorrelation, but trading volume and daily return volatility are not correlated, while intraday volatility is. We …
New condition ensures submanifolds are skew in small areas.
problem Ensuring submanifolds are skew in Euclidean space.
method Introduces a third-order differential condition.
result Constructs improved totally skew embeddings for Rn. A skew brane is an immersed codimension 2 submanifold in affine space, free from pairs of parallel tangent spaces. Using Morse theory, we prove that a skew brane cannot lie on a quadratic hypersurface. We also prove that there are no skew loops on embedded ruled developable discs in 3-space. The paper extends recent wo…
This paper classifies 4D spin manifolds with skew Killing spinors.
problem Classifying 4D Riemannian spin manifolds with skew Killing spinors.
method Analyzing skew Killing spinors with skew-symmetric endomorphisms A, considering both degenerate and non-degenerate cases.
result In the degenerate case, the manifold is locally isometric to R x N with N having a skew Killing spinor.
Complete classification of quaternionic skew-Hermitian symmetric spaces found.
problem Classifying quaternionic skew-Hermitian symmetric spaces.
method Proving the existence of a torsion-free mSO∗(2n)mSp(1)-structure and showing that any homogeneous space is symmetric. result A complete classification of quaternionic skew-Hermitian symmetric spaces for arbitrary n>1. Study refracted skew Brownian motion, find densities and asymptotics.
problem Modeling and analyzing refracted skew Brownian motion.
method Perturbation approach to find potential densities, transition density, and asymptotic behaviors.
result Expressions and asymptotic behaviors of refracted skew Brownian motion.
Following recent work by Ghomi, Solomon and Tabachnikov, we study geometry and topology of skew branes. A skew brane is a codimension 2 submanifold in affine space such that the tangent spaces at any pair of distinct points are not parallel. We prove that if an oriented closed manifold has a non-zero Euler characterist…
New RESK distributions improve robust clustering of skewed data.
problem Robustly clustering non-symmetric, heavy-tailed data clusters.
method Proposes RESK distributions and an EM algorithm with robust skew-Huber M-estimator.
result Numerical experiments confirm the effectiveness of the proposed methods.
The paper examines differential smoothness in skew PBW extensions over polynomial rings.
problem Differential smoothness in skew PBW extensions over polynomial rings.
method Investigation of skew PBW extensions over commutative polynomial rings.
result Results on differential smoothness for skew PBW extensions over polynomial rings.
A parsimonious model reduces over-parameterization in skewed matrix variate mixtures.
problem Over-parameterization in skewed matrix variate mixtures.
method Parsimonious family of 256 models using bilinear factor analyzers constrained over clusters, with AECM algorithm for estimation.
result Extensive simulations and real-world datasets (MNIST, Olivetti faces) demonstrate the method's effectiveness.
Study various submanifolds in quaternionic skew-Hermitian spaces.
problem Characterize submanifolds in almost quaternionic skew-Hermitian manifolds.
method Construct explicit examples of submanifolds in semisimple quaternionic skew-Hermitian symmetric spaces.
result Explicit examples of submanifolds for each type considered.
Optimizes option portfolios for skewed-t returns using VaR and variance measures.
problem Optimizing portfolios for skewed-t returns with heavy tails and skewness.
method Uses variance and VaR measures, departing from normal returns, and provides explicit portfolio weights.
result Optimal portfolio weights differ significantly from variance optimal weights due to skewness.
New divergence measures improve KL approximation.
problem Improving KL divergence approximation without AC condition.
method Introduced α-geodesical skew divergence. result Properties of α-geodesical skew divergence studied. Study finds time-varying volatility and multifractality in Bitcoin, with asymmetry weakening as market efficiency increases.
problem Investigating time-varying properties of Bitcoin's volatility and multifractality.
method Rolling window method to examine daily Bitcoin returns and multifractal properties over time.
result Volatility asymmetry in Bitcoin changes over time, becoming less pronounced as market efficiency increases.
We study the various sectors of the Bombay Stock Exchange(BSE) for a period of 8 years from April 2006 - March 2014. Using the data of daily returns of a period of eight years we make a direct model free analysis of the pattern of the sectorial indices movement and the correlations among them. Our analysis shows signif…
The paper improves asset allocation using a skew-normal distribution in the Black-Litterman model.
problem Improving asset allocation under skewed return distributions.
method Using the Black-Litterman model with hidden truncation skew-normal distribution and Simaan's three-moment risk model.
result Optimal portfolios have less risk and higher skewness compared to classical BL model.
A new clustering method for functional data using skewed distributions.
problem Clustering functional data with skewed distributions.
method Mixtures of functional linear regression models and three skewed multivariate distributions (variance-gamma, skew-t, normal-inverse Gaussian).
result The proposed method funWeightClustSkew performs well on simulated and real data.
The paper characterizes curvature of quaternionic skew-Hermitian manifolds and constructs related geometric structures.
problem Characterizing the curvature of quaternionic skew-Hermitian manifolds.
method Holonomy theory of symplectic connections and bundle constructions.
result Existence and integrability of almost hypercomplex skew-Hermitian structures on Swann bundles.