A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Currency volatility shocks predict lower excess returns, and buying weak transmitters outperforms selling strong ones.
Deep learning predicts currency volatility accurately.
Develops a new model for multi-currency volatility using CBI-time-changed Lévy processes.
We suggest an intermediate currency approach that allows us to price options on all FX markets simultaneously under the same risk-neutral measure which ensures consistency of FX option prices across all markets. In particular, it is sufficient to calibrate a model to the volatility smile on the domestic market as, due …
Study shows cryptocurrency price fluctuations become more similar to national currencies over time.
The paper identifies key macroeconomic events affecting exchange rate volatility.
Study examines Bitcoin's volatility and returns using stochastic volatility model.
Study shows variance gamma model outperforms Black-Scholes for USD-INR currency options.
Study proposes a method to construct copulas using corrected Hermite polynomial expansion for estimating foreign exchange volatility.
Novel method for estimating currency option parameters with improved accuracy.
We introduce a tractable multi-currency model with stochastic volatility and correlated stochastic interest rates that takes into account the smile in the FX market and the evolution of yield curves. The pricing of vanilla options on FX rates can be performed effciently through the FFT methodology thanks to the affinit…
This work studies the valuation of currency options in markets suffering from a financial crisis. We consider a European option where the underlying asset is a foreign currency. We assume that the value of the underlying asset is a stochastic process that follows a modified Black-Scholes model with an augmented stochas…
This study deals with the problem of pricing European currency options in discrete time setting, whose prices follow the fractional Black Scholes model with transaction costs. Both the pricing formula and the fractional partial differential equation for European call currency options are obtained by applying the delta-…
This paper offers a mathematical framework to manage inventory risk in FX cash markets.
Intuitively, the default risk of a single borrower is higher when her or his assets and debt are denominated in different currencies. Additionally, the default dependence of borrowers with assets and debt in different currencies should be stronger than in the one-currency case. By combining well-known models by Merton …
In this paper, we establish a market model for the term structure of forward inflation rates based on the risk-neutral dynamics of nominal and real zero-coupon bonds. Under the market model, we can price inflation caplets as well as inflation swaptions with a formula similar to the Black's formula, thus justify the cur…
Stablecoins promise to bridge fiat currencies with the world of cryptocurrencies. They provide a way for users to take advantage of the benefits of digital currencies, such as ability to transfer assets over the internet, provide assurance on minting schedules and scarcity, and enable new asset classes, while also part…
Option written on several foreign exchange rates (FXRs) depends on correlation between the rates. To evaluate the option, historical estimates for correlations can be used but usually they are not stable. More significantly, pricing of the option using these estimates is usually inconsistent to the traded vanilla contr…
We extend Dupire's formula for stochastic interest rates and local volatility.
Machine learning models predict EUR/USD currency direction with 58.52% accuracy.
Digital currencies exhibit multifractality due to heavy-tailed returns and temporal correlations.
Study compares models for pricing multi-strike quanto call options with SV, SC, and SER.
Study compares GARCH, EWMA, and IV models for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP currency pairs.
Paper examines two methods for FX market volatility modeling.
Survey of stablecoins to reduce cryptocurrency volatility.
We show how bad and good volatility propagate through forex markets, i.e., we provide evidence for asymmetric volatility connectedness on forex markets. Using high-frequency, intra-day data of the most actively traded currencies over 2007 - 2015 we document the dominating asymmetries in spillovers that are due to bad r…
The problem of non-stationarity in financial markets is discussed and related to the dynamic nature of price volatility. A new measure is proposed for estimation of the current asset volatility. A simple and illustrative explanation is suggested of the emergence of significant serial autocorrelations in volatility and …
Novel OTT method for cryptocurrency trading offers high annualized profit.
A key challenge for Bitcoin cryptocurrency holders, such as startups using ICOs to raise funding, is managing their FX risk. Specifically, a misinformed decision to convert Bitcoin to fiat currency could, by itself, cost USD millions. In contrast to financial exchanges, Blockchain based crypto-currencies expose the ent…
VHVM models financial time series with varying volatility.
We introduce a novel multi-factor Heston-based stochastic volatility model, which is able to reproduce consistently typical multi-dimensional FX vanilla markets, while retaining the (semi)-analytical tractability typical of affine models and relying on a reasonable number of parameters. A successful joint calibration t…
A Bayesian procedure is developed for multivariate stochastic volatility, using state space models. An autoregressive model for the log-returns is employed. We generalize the inverted Wishart distribution to allow for different correlation structure between the observation and state innovation vectors and we extend the…
Trading bubbles form when traders adapt to price mismatches.
The multi dimensional string objects are introduced as a new alternative for an application of string models for time series forecasting in trading on financial markets. The objects are represented by open string with 2-endpoints and D2-brane, which are continuous enhancement of 1-endpoint open string model. We show ho…
In 'A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options', Heston proposes a Stochastic Volatility (SV) model with constant interest rate and derives a semi-explicit valuation formula. Heston also describes, in general terms, how the model could be extended to inc…
New method clusters financial time series into volatility regimes.
We revisit the problem of pricing and hedging plain vanilla single-currency interest rate derivatives using multiple distinct yield curves for market coherent estimation of discount factors and forward rates with different underlying rate tenors. Within such double-curve-single-currency framework, adopted by the market…
We present a simple hybrid dynamical model as a tool to investigate behavioral strategies based on trend following. The multiplicative symbolic dynamics are generated using a lognormal diffusion model for the at-the-money implied volatility term structure. Thus, are model exploits information from derivative markets to…
New risk measure uses Fourier analysis of stock prices.
AMSAs adaptively manage crypto-currency trading by selecting multiple strategies based on market conditions.
In this paper we forecast daily returns of crypto-currencies using a wide variety of different econometric models. To capture salient features commonly observed in financial time series like rapid changes in the conditional variance, non-normality of the measurement errors and sharply increasing trends, we develop a ti…
Study improves cryptocurrency volatility forecasting using multiple data sources.
We propose a novel and generic calibration technique for four-factor foreign-exchange hybrid local-stochastic volatility models with stochastic short rates. We build upon the particle method introduced by Guyon and Labordère [Nonlinear Option Pricing, Chapter 11, Chapman and Hall, 2013] and combine it with new variance…
We study the Heston-Cox-Ingersoll-Ross++ stochastic-local volatility model in the context of foreign exchange markets and propose a Monte Carlo simulation scheme which combines the full truncation Euler scheme for the stochastic volatility component and the stochastic domestic and foreign short interest rates with the …
We present a simplistic model of the competition between different currencies. Each individual is free to choose the currency that minimizes his transaction costs, which arise whenever his exchanging relations have chosen a different currency. We show that competition between currencies does not necessarily converge to…
This study empirically re-examines fat tails in stock return distributions by applying statistical methods to an extensive dataset taken from the Korean stock market. The tails of the return distributions are shown to be much fatter in recent periods than in past periods and much fatter for small-capitalization stocks …
By analyzing the foreign exchange market data of various currencies, we derive a hierarchical taxonomy of currencies constructing minimal-spanning trees. Clustered structure of the currencies and the key currency in each cluster are found. The clusters match nicely with the geographical regions of corresponding countri…
This thesis applies entropy as a model independent measure to address three research questions concerning financial time series. In the first study we apply transfer entropy to drawdowns and drawups in foreign exchange rates, to study their correlation and cross correlation. When applied to daily and hourly EUR/USD and…