A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Automated market-making for CBDCs and stable coins on blockchain.
Study analyzes risks and opportunities in blockchain currency markets.
Abstract framework for cross-currency interest rate contracts.
The study reveals the hierarchical structure of the international FOREX market using currency fluctuation distribution similarities.
Develops a new model for cross-currency derivatives pricing.
A new approach for pricing FX options that uses a single model for all markets.
Study applies market microstructure to Cuban informal currency market, finding market makers improve liquidity.
This paper offers a mathematical framework to manage inventory risk in FX cash markets.
Gold and currency markets form a unique pair with specific interactions and dynamics. We focus on the efficiency ranking of gold markets with respect to the currency of purchase. By utilizing the Efficiency Index (EI) based on fractal dimension, approximate entropy and long-term memory on a wide portfolio of 142 gold p…
We present a general derivation of the arbitrage-free pricing framework for multiple-currency collateralized products. We include the impact on option pricing of the policy adopted to fund in foreign currency, so that we are able to price contracts with cash flows and/or collateral accounts expressed in foreign currenc…
Study shows demonetization strengthened Indian currency and stock market.
The key characteristic of a true free market economy is that exchanges are entirely voluntary. When there is a monopoly in the creation of currency as we have in today's markets, you no longer have a true free market. Features of the current economic system such as central banking and taxation would be nonexistent in a…
We analyze structure of the world foreign currency exchange (FX) market viewed as a network of interacting currencies. We analyze daily time series of FX data for a set of 63 currencies, including gold, silver and platinum. We group together all the exchange rates with a common base currency and study each group separa…
Study improves early warning models for currency and stock market crises.
By analyzing the foreign exchange market data of various currencies, we derive a hierarchical taxonomy of currencies constructing minimal-spanning trees. Clustered structure of the currencies and the key currency in each cluster are found. The clusters match nicely with the geographical regions of corresponding countri…
There are many studies dealing with the analysis of similarity among currencies in foreign exchange market by using network analysis approach. In those studies, each currency is represented by a univariate time series of exchange rate return. This is the standard practice to analyze the underlying information in the fo…
New method detects currency contagion sources using causal inference.
If financial markets displayed the informational efficiency postulated in the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH), arbitrage operations would be self-extinguishing. The present paper considers arbitrage sequences in foreign exchange (FX) markets, in which trading platforms and information are fragmented. In Kozyakin et …
Study multi-currency markets with multiple interest rates and collateral.
Model shows triangular arbitrage key to cross-currency correlations in forex markets.
For the purpose of elucidating the correlation among currencies, we analyze daily and high-resolution data of foreign exchange rates. There is strong correlation for pairs of currencies of geographically near countries. We show that there is a time delay of order less than a minute between two currency markets having a…
The production and consumption of information about Bitcoin and other digital-, or 'crypto'-, currencies have grown together with their market capitalisation. However, a systematic investigation of the relationship between online attention and market dynamics, across multiple digital currencies, is still lacking. Here,…
We quantify how co-jumps impact correlations in currency markets. To disentangle the continuous part of quadratic covariation from co-jumps, and study the influence of co-jumps on correlations, we propose a new wavelet-based estimator. The proposed estimation framework is able to localize the co-jumps very precisely th…
The so called "globalization" process (i.e. the inexorable integration of markets, currencies, nation-states, technologies and the intensification of consciousness of the world as a whole) has a behavior exactly equivalent to a system that is tending to a maximum entropy state. This globalization process obeys a collec…
This work studies the valuation of currency options in markets suffering from a financial crisis. We consider a European option where the underlying asset is a foreign currency. We assume that the value of the underlying asset is a stochastic process that follows a modified Black-Scholes model with an augmented stochas…
Collateralization with daily margining has become a new standard in the post-crisis market. Although there appeared vast literature on a so-called multi-curve framework, a complete picture of a multi-currency setup with cross-currency basis can be rarely found since our initial attempts. This work gives its extension r…
Develops a new model for multi-currency volatility using CBI-time-changed Lévy processes.
Bitcoins have emerged as a possible competitor to usual currencies, but other crypto-currencies have likewise appeared as competitors to the Bitcoin currency. The expanding market of crypto-currencies now involves capital equivalent to US Dollars, providing academia with an unusual opportunity to study the em…
Machine learning models predict EUR/USD currency direction with 58.52% accuracy.
The cross-correlations between the exchange rate fluctuations of 74 currencies over the period 1995-2012 are analyzed in this paper. The eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix exhibits a bulk which approximately matches the bounds predicted from random matrices constructed using mutually uncorrelated t…
Central bank strategy to maintain currency exchange rate within limits.
China uses two Renminbi markets to hedge cross-border risks, leading to a price discrepancy.
Digital currencies exhibit multifractality due to heavy-tailed returns and temporal correlations.
This paper examines pricing and hedging strategies for cross-currency equity protection swaps.
High-frequency financial data of the foreign exchange market (EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/NOK, EUR/SEK, EUR/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, USD/NOK, and USD/SEK) are analyzed by utilizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between two normalized spectrograms of the tick frequency and the generalized Jensen-Sha…
There is intense interest in understanding the stochastic and dynamical properties of the global Foreign Exchange (FX) market, whose daily transactions exceed one trillion US dollars. This is a formidable task since the FX market is characterized by a web of fluctuating exchange rates, with subtle inter-dependencies wh…
Power spectrum densities for the number of tick quotes per minute (market activity) on three currency markets (USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and JPY/EUR) for periods from January 1999 to December 2000 are analyzed. We find some peaks on the power spectrum densities at a few minutes. We develop the double-threshold agent model and …
We examine the problem of dynamic reserving for risk in multiple currencies under a general coherent risk measure. The reserver requires to hedge risk in a time-consistent manner by trading in baskets of currencies. We show that reserving portfolios in multiple currencies are time-consistent when (and only…
We investigate quotation and transaction activities in the foreign exchange market for every week during the period of June 2007 to December 2010. A scaling relationship between the mean values of number of quotations (or number of transactions) for various currency pairs and the corresponding standard deviations holds…
The currency carry trade is the investment strategy that involves selling low interest rate currencies in order to purchase higher interest rate currencies, thus profiting from the interest rate differentials. This is a well known financial puzzle to explain, since assuming foreign exchange risk is uninhibited and the …
In this paper, we establish a market model for the term structure of forward inflation rates based on the risk-neutral dynamics of nominal and real zero-coupon bonds. Under the market model, we can price inflation caplets as well as inflation swaptions with a formula similar to the Black's formula, thus justify the cur…
Paper uses GNNs to efficiently detect profitable triangular arbitrage opportunities.
We revisit the problem of pricing and hedging plain vanilla single-currency interest rate derivatives using multiple distinct yield curves for market coherent estimation of discount factors and forward rates with different underlying rate tenors. Within such double-curve-single-currency framework, adopted by the market…
This study investigates that a characteristic time scale on an exchange rate market (USD/JPY) is examined for the period of 1998 to 2000. Calculating power spectrum densities for the number of tick quotes per minute and averaging them over the year yield that the mean power spectrum density has a peak at high frequenci…
This paper explores IT governance for CBDC adoption in financial markets.
The pricing and hedging of a general class of options (including American, Bermudan and European options) on multiple assets are studied in the context of currency markets where trading is subject to proportional transaction costs, and where the existence of a risk-free numéraire is not assumed. Constructions leading t…
This paper uses crypto derivatives data to estimate yield curves for cryptocurrencies.
We consider a stochastic game between a trader and a central bank in a target zone market with a lower currency peg. This currency peg is maintained by the central bank through the generation of permanent price impact, thereby aggregating an ever increasing risky position in foreign reserves. We describe this situation…