A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper improves asymmetric causality tests by addressing inefficiencies and statistical significance issues.
problem Inefficiencies and statistical significance issues in asymmetric causality tests.
method Improved asymmetric causality tests via partial cumulative sums for positive and negative components, explicitly testing differences between causal parameters.
result Efficiently tested hypotheses on asymmetric causal interaction between financial markets.
Cumulant expansion is used to derive accurate closed-form approximation for Monthly Sum Options in case of constant volatility model. Payoff of Monthly Sum Option is based on sum of N caped (and probably floored) returns. It is noticed, that 1/N can be used as a small parameter in Edgeworth expansion. First …
This article develops a statistical test for the null hypothesis of strict stationarity of a discrete time stochastic process in the frequency domain. When the null hypothesis is true, the second order cumulant spectrum is zero at all the discrete Fourier frequency pairs in the principal domain. The test uses a window …
A new family of nonparametric statistics, the r-statistics, is introduced. It consists of counting the number of records of the cumulative sum of the sample. The single-sample r-statistic is almost as powerful as Student's t-statistic for Gaussian and uniformly distributed variables, and more powerful than the sign and…
We introduce a new type of graphical model called a "cumulative distribution network" (CDN), which expresses a joint cumulative distribution as a product of local functions. Each local function can be viewed as providing evidence about possible orderings, or rankings, of variables. Interestingly, we find that the condi…
In this article, inspired by Shi, et al. we investigate the optimal portfolio selection with one risk-free asset and one risky asset in a multiple period setting under cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Compared with their study, our novelty is that we consider a stochastic benchmark, and portfolio constraints. We test …
The multi-armed bandit problem has been extensively studied under the stationary assumption. However in reality, this assumption often does not hold because the distributions of rewards themselves may change over time. In this paper, we propose a change-detection (CD) based framework for multi-armed bandit problems und…
In this paper we provide a valuation formula for different classes of actuarial and financial contracts which depend on a general loss process, by using the Malliavin calculus. In analogy with the celebrated Black-Scholes formula, we aim at expressing the expected cash flow in terms of a building block. The former is r…
The stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem is a common model for sequential decision problems. In the standard setup, a decision maker has to choose at every instant between several competing arms, each of them provides a scalar random variable, referred to as a "reward." Nearly all research on this topic consider…
The cumulant analysis plays an important role in non Gaussian distributed data analysis. The shares' prices returns are good example of such data. The purpose of this research is to develop the cumulant based algorithm and use it to determine eigenvectors that represent investment portfolios with low variability. Such …
Study of correlated Wigner matrices with BBP transitions.
problem Understanding spectral transitions in correlated Wigner matrices.
method Analyzes a Wigner-type matrix with row/column correlations, decomposes into bulk and outliers, and uses integral operators to model transitions.
result Correlated Wigner matrices exhibit multiple BBP transitions at critical points.
problem Deciding on the unimodality of a dataset for better data analysis.
method UU-test operates on the empirical cumulative density function (ecdf) to build a piecewise linear approximation that models the data as a Uniform Mixture Model.
result The UU-test provides a statistical model of the data in the form of a Uniform Mixture Model.
The goal of Ordinal Regression is to find a rule that ranks items from a given set. Several learning algorithms to solve this prediction problem build an ensemble of binary classifiers. Ranking by Projecting uses interdependent binary perceptrons. These perceptrons share the same direction vector, but use different bia…
The attack intensity of distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks is increasing every year. Botnets based on internet of things (IOT) devices are now being used to conduct DDoS attacks. The estimation of direct and indirect economic damages caused by these attacks is a complex problem. One of the indirect damage of …
We study nonzero-sum hypothesis testing games that arise in the context of adversarial classification, in both the Bayesian as well as the Neyman-Pearson frameworks. We first show that these games admit mixed strategy Nash equilibria, and then we examine some interesting concentration phenomena of these equilibria. Our…
We consider the problem of stochastic comparison of general Garch-like processes, for different parameters and different distributions of the innovations. We identify several stochastic orders that are propagated from the innovations to the Garch process itself, and discuss their interpretations. We focus on the convex…
The paper addresses evaluating survival predictions using discrimination measures, finding a robust method to convert distributions to risks.
problem Evaluating survival distribution predictions with discrimination measures is challenging and often leads to unfair comparisons.
method The paper surveys existing methods and recommends summing over the predicted cumulative hazard as the most robust method to convert distributions to risks.
result Summing over the predicted cumulative hazard is the most robust method to convert distribution predictions to risk predictions.