Cumulant expansion is used to derive accurate closed-form approximation for Monthly Sum Options in case of constant volatility model. Payoff of Monthly Sum Option is based on sum of caped (and probably floored) returns. It is noticed, that can be used as a small parameter in Edgeworth expansion. First …
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,694 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “cumulative sum”
Rectified Pessimistic-Optimistic Learning for Stochastic Continuum-armed Bandit with Constraintscs.LG
Paper tackles constrained bandit problems with a new learning framework.
problem Optimizing a black-box reward function subject to a black-box constraint function over a continuous space.
method Rectified Pessimistic-Optimistic Learning (RPOL) framework, incorporating optimistic and pessimistic GP bandit learning.
result RPOL achieves sublinear regret and minimal cumulative constraint violation.
We introduce a new type of graphical model called a "cumulative distribution network" (CDN), which expresses a joint cumulative distribution as a product of local functions. Each local function can be viewed as providing evidence about possible orderings, or rankings, of variables. Interestingly, we find that the condi…
This work extends reinforcement learning to handle non-cumulative objectives.
problem Optimizing functions of rewards rather than their sum in decision processes.
method Mapping NCMDPs to standard MDPs for reinforcement learning.
result Reinforcement learning techniques can be applied to NCMDPs.
Paper defines the payback period for nonconventional cash flows using axioms.
problem Defining the payback period for nonconventional cash flows is challenging.
method Used axiomatic approach to define the payback period.
result The last break-even point of the project balance is the only definition consistent with axioms.
In this paper we provide a valuation formula for different classes of actuarial and financial contracts which depend on a general loss process, by using the Malliavin calculus. In analogy with the celebrated Black-Scholes formula, we aim at expressing the expected cash flow in terms of a building block. The former is r…
Paper tackles online DR-submodular maximization with stochastic constraints.
problem Maximizing utility while adhering to a cumulative resource constraint in an online setting.
method Proposes OLFW algorithm to solve the problem of online continuous DR-submodular maximization with linear stochastic constraints.
result Obtains sub-linear regret and constraint violation bounds.
Paper optimizes change detection in unnormalized distributions.
problem Detecting changes in unnormalized pre- and post-change distributions.
method Log-Partition Approximation Cumulative Sum (LPA-CUSUM) algorithm based on thermodynamic integration.
result Asymptotically optimal performance achieved through unbiased estimation of CUSUM statistics.
The paper improves asymmetric causality tests by addressing inefficiencies and statistical significance issues.
problem Inefficiencies and statistical significance issues in asymmetric causality tests.
method Improved asymmetric causality tests via partial cumulative sums for positive and negative components, explicitly testing differences between causal parameters.
result Efficiently tested hypotheses on asymmetric causal interaction between financial markets.
Boost-R uses gradient boosted trees for analyzing recurrence data.
problem Analyzing recurrence data with static and dynamic features.
method Gradient boosted additive trees with time-dependent functions.
result Estimates the cumulative intensity function of recurrent event processes.
The stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem is a common model for sequential decision problems. In the standard setup, a decision maker has to choose at every instant between several competing arms, each of them provides a scalar random variable, referred to as a "reward." Nearly all research on this topic consider…
New algorithms achieve near-optimal cumulative loss in nonparametric online learning and games.
problem Fast rates of convergence in nonparametric online regression and classification.
method Randomized proper learning algorithms, hierarchical aggregation, multi-scale extension, stability proof.
result Achieved near-optimal cumulative loss bounds for real-valued and binary games.
Study of correlated Wigner matrices with BBP transitions.
problem Understanding spectral transitions in correlated Wigner matrices.
method Analyzes a Wigner-type matrix with row/column correlations, decomposes into bulk and outliers, and uses integral operators to model transitions.
result Correlated Wigner matrices exhibit multiple BBP transitions at critical points.
The goal of Ordinal Regression is to find a rule that ranks items from a given set. Several learning algorithms to solve this prediction problem build an ensemble of binary classifiers. Ranking by Projecting uses interdependent binary perceptrons. These perceptrons share the same direction vector, but use different bia…
New algorithm minimizes cumulative loss in dynamic linear bandits without prior knowledge of comparator switches.
problem Minimizing cumulative loss in dynamic linear bandits with unknown number of switches.
method Combining several bandit algorithms to adapt to unknown number of switches without prior knowledge.
result First algorithm achieving optimal regret guarantee of up to poly-logarithmic terms.
The paper prices energy spread options using a complex stochastic model.
problem Pricing energy spread options with specific stochastic dynamics.
method Uses an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by variance gamma processes, applying the Esscher transform and FFT method.
result Derives an analytical formula for pricing forwards and spread options.
A method to monitor probability predictions for calibration loss in image classification models.
problem Maintaining calibration in machine learning predictions over time.
method Cumulative sum-based approach with dynamic limits for early detection of miscalibration.
result Early detection of operational context changes impacting image classification performance.
New monitoring method detects ML risk models' performance changes in medical interventions.
problem Monitoring ML risk models in healthcare is complicated by confounding medical interventions.
method Developed a new score-based CUSUM monitoring procedure with dynamic control limits.
result Valid inference is possible if conditional exchangeability or time-constant selection bias hold.
Algorithm learns from changing zero-sum games with no regret.
problem Learning in time-varying zero-sum games.
method Developed a single parameter-free algorithm with three performance measures.
result Algorithm recovers best known results for fixed games and adapts to non-stationarity.
A new trading model uses deep reinforcement learning to optimize portfolio weights.
problem Optimizing portfolio weights with risk and return considerations.
method Improved deep reinforcement learning with actor-critic architecture, quantile regression, and asset short selling.
result The proposed model outperforms benchmark strategies in backtesting.
Study on parity of singular set components of maps to surfaces.
problem Parity of the number of components of singular set of maps to oriented surfaces.
method Cumulative winding number and invariant I(f) defined to study parity under homotopy.
result Parity of the number of components of singular set does not change under homotopy under certain conditions.
The paper proves local laws for non-separable sample covariance matrices.
problem Analyzing non-separable sample covariance matrices with dependent or nonlinearly transformed data.
method Tensor network framework for analyzing fluctuation averaging in the presence of higher-order cumulant structure.
result Optimal averaged local law and full anisotropic local law for non-separable sample covariance matrices.
Boosts change-point detection power with optimal sub-sampling.
problem Power loss in sequential change-point detection from large history data.
method Optimal sub-sampling of history data before kernel-based detection procedures.
result Improved detection performance in extensive experiments.
KCUSUM detects abrupt changes in real-time data streams efficiently.
problem Detecting abrupt changes in high-volume scientific data streams.
method Kernel-based Cumulative Sum (KCUSUM) algorithm using Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD).
result KCUSUM outperforms traditional CUSUM in online change point detection.
We consider the problem of stochastic comparison of general Garch-like processes, for different parameters and different distributions of the innovations. We identify several stochastic orders that are propagated from the innovations to the Garch process itself, and discuss their interpretations. We focus on the convex…
Avoiding C-hacking when evaluating survival distribution predictions with discrimination measuresstat.ML
The paper addresses evaluating survival predictions using discrimination measures, finding a robust method to convert distributions to risks.
problem Evaluating survival distribution predictions with discrimination measures is challenging and often leads to unfair comparisons.
method The paper surveys existing methods and recommends summing over the predicted cumulative hazard as the most robust method to convert distributions to risks.
result Summing over the predicted cumulative hazard is the most robust method to convert distribution predictions to risk predictions.
New learning dynamics adapt to corrupted games, improving performance in real-world scenarios.
problem Learning dynamics in games are limited to honest players, ignoring real-world corruption.
method Adaptive learning dynamics that adapt to player deviations from prescribed algorithms.
result Learning dynamics achieve better performance in corrupted games, matching honest regime bounds.
Online distributional prediction with latent cluster geometry
problem Predicting the full data-generating distribution in non-stationary streams
method Representing candidate laws as latent cluster geometry and using Gibbs quasi-posterior
result Achieving sublinear cumulative Wasserstein regret under bounded support and stable latent geometry
Study quantifies how LLMs capture higher-order statistical structure using cumulant expansion.
problem Understanding how LLMs internalize statistical structure during next-token prediction.
method Cumulant-expansion framework treating softmax entropy as perturbation around center distribution.
result Cumulants reveal distinct signatures for mathematical vs. general text prompts, quantifying feature-learning dynamics.
New method for RL with general utilities using variational policy gradient.
problem Optimizing policies with general concave utility functions in RL.
method Derives Variational Policy Gradient Theorem, develops variational Monte Carlo gradient estimation algorithm.
result Global convergence to optimal policy for general objectives, exponential convergence under strong convexity.
In this study, a numerical quadrature for the generalized inverse Gaussian distribution is derived from the Gauss-Hermite quadrature by exploiting its relationship with the normal distribution. The proposed quadrature is not Gaussian, but it exactly integrates the polynomials of both positive and negative orders. Using…
In this paper, we consider the problem of sequentially optimizing a black-box function based on noisy samples and bandit feedback. We assume that is smooth in the sense of having a bounded norm in some reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), yielding a commonly-considered non-Bayesian form of Gaussian process …
The CSA-ES is an Evolution Strategy with Cumulative Step size Adaptation, where the step size is adapted measuring the length of a so-called cumulative path. The cumulative path is a combination of the previous steps realized by the algorithm, where the importance of each step decreases with time. This article studies …
Significance of log-periodic signatures in cumulative noisecond-mat.stat-mech
Using methods introduced by Scargle in 1978 we derive a cumulative version of the Lomb periodogram that exhibits frequency independent statistics when applied to cumulative noise. We show how this cumulative Lomb periodogram allows us to estimate the significance of log-periodic signatures in the S&P 500 anti-bubble th…
We introduce a new online learning framework where, at each trial, the learner is required to select a subset of actions from a given known action set. Each action is associated with an energy value, a reward and a cost. The sum of the energies of the actions selected cannot exceed a given energy budget. The goal is to…
A parameter-free PGD algorithm for convex optimization.
problem Minimizing convex functions over convex sets.
method A fully adaptive AdaGrad variant of PGD without parameters or restarts.
result Optimal convergence rates for cumulative regret.
New method detects strong calibration in ML models, even for small poorly calibrated subgroups.
problem Auditing machine learning models for strong calibration is difficult, especially for small poorly calibrated subgroups.
method Reorder observations by expected residuals and use changepoint detection for score-based cumulative sum (CUSUM) test.
result The proposed adaptive CUSUM test consistently achieved higher power and more than doubled power in auditing mortality risk prediction models.
Kernelized cumulants improve statistical analysis in high-dimensional spaces.
problem Statistical analysis in high-dimensional spaces with low variance estimators.
method Extending cumulants to RKHS using tensor algebra and kernel trick.
result Kernelized cumulants provide new all-purpose statistics with computational tractability.
We consider a stochastic linear bandit problem with multiple users, where the relationship between users is captured by an underlying graph and user preferences are represented as smooth signals on the graph. We introduce a novel bandit algorithm where the smoothness prior is imposed via the random-walk graph Laplacian…
Neural networks can learn from higher-order cumulants efficiently, requiring quadratic samples.
problem Learning from higher-order cumulants in high-dimensional data.
method Spiked cumulant model, polynomial time algorithms, neural networks, random features.
result Neural networks require quadratic samples to learn from higher-order cumulants efficiently, while random features require more samples.
The paper calculates bounds for risk metrics and entropies under partial information constraints.
problem Analyzing risk metrics and entropies for unimodal, symmetric distributions with limited information.
method Develops lower and upper bounds for worst-case distortion riskmetrics and weighted entropy for unimodal, symmetric distributions with known mean and variance.
result Sharp upper bounds for distortion riskmetrics and weighted entropy for symmetric distributions.
Cumulant GANcs.LG
A new GAN loss function based on cumulant generating functions improves stability and robustness.
problem Improving the stability and performance of GANs.
method Cumulant GAN loss function based on variational R{é}nyi divergence.
result Cumulant GAN achieves linear convergence to Nash equilibrium and superior performance in image generation.
One- and two-sample nonparametric tests for the signal-to-noise ratio based on record statisticsstat.ME
A new family of nonparametric statistics, the r-statistics, is introduced. It consists of counting the number of records of the cumulative sum of the sample. The single-sample r-statistic is almost as powerful as Student's t-statistic for Gaussian and uniformly distributed variables, and more powerful than the sign and…
We propose a new online algorithm for cumulative regret minimization in a stochastic linear bandit. The algorithm pulls the arm with the highest estimated reward in a linear model trained on its perturbed history. Therefore, we call it perturbed-history exploration in a linear bandit (LinPHE). The perturbed history is …
Bayesian methods improve inference for cumulative probit models on large datasets.
problem Challenges in Bayesian inference for large cumulative probit models.
method Proposed scalable algorithms using Variational Bayes and Expectation Propagation.
result Superior computational performance and accuracy compared to MCMC.
The problem of an arbitrary truncated Levy flight description using the method of cumulant approach has been solved. The set of cumulants of the truncated Levy distribution given the assumption of arbitrary truncation has been found. The influence of truncation shape on the truncated Levy flight properties in the Gauss…
We study a special case of the problem of statistical learning without the i.i.d. assumption. Specifically, we suppose a learning method is presented with a sequence of data points, and required to make a prediction (e.g., a classification) for each one, and can then observe the loss incurred by this prediction. We go …
CENNSurv models cumulative effects of time-dependent exposures on survival outcomes.
problem Challenges in modeling cumulative effects of time-dependent exposures on survival outcomes.
method CENNSurv, a novel deep learning approach that captures dynamic risk relationships from time-dependent data.
result CENNSurv reveals multi-year lagged and short-term behavioral shifts in survival outcomes.