A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes a new sampling method for online learning with cumulative oversampling.
The CSA-ES is an Evolution Strategy with Cumulative Step size Adaptation, where the step size is adapted measuring the length of a so-called cumulative path. The cumulative path is a combination of the previous steps realized by the algorithm, where the importance of each step decreases with time. This article studies …
New method corrects bias in datasets using cumulative distribution functions.
New method identifies structural parameters without assuming uncorrelated errors.
Cumulant expansion is used to derive accurate closed-form approximation for Monthly Sum Options in case of constant volatility model. Payoff of Monthly Sum Option is based on sum of caped (and probably floored) returns. It is noticed, that can be used as a small parameter in Edgeworth expansion. First …
Exponential dispersion model is a useful framework in machine learning and statistics. Primarily, thanks to the additive structure of the model, it can be achieved without difficulty to estimate parameters including mean. However, tight conditions on cumulant function, such as analyticity, strict convexity, and steepne…
Constructs classifiers for neural networks with specific data configurations.
CENNSurv models cumulative effects of time-dependent exposures on survival outcomes.
In this article, inspired by Shi, et al. we investigate the optimal portfolio selection with one risk-free asset and one risky asset in a multiple period setting under cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Compared with their study, our novelty is that we consider a stochastic benchmark, and portfolio constraints. We test …
New method identifies latent variables with causal dependencies from observed data.
New algorithms minimize simple and cumulative regret in contextual bandits.
We provide evidence that cumulative distributions of absolute normalized returns for the American companies with the highest market capitalization, uncover a critical behavior for different time scales . Such cumulative distributions, in accordance with a variety of complex --and financial-- systems, can be m…
We develop a method that relates the truncated cumulant-function of the fourth order with the Lévian cumulant-function. This gives us explicit formulas for the Lévy-parameters, which allow a real-time analysis of the state of a random-motion. Cumbersome procedures like maximum-likelihood or least-square methods are unn…
Optimal algorithm for high-dimensional stochastic linear bandits with sparse parameters.
Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are a popular framework to express multivariate probability distributions. Acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs) are generalizations of DAGs that can succinctly capture much richer sets of conditional independencies, and are especially useful in modeling the effects of latent variables im…
ECOD detects outliers without parameters, fast and simple.
A new model uses neural networks to efficiently learn multivariate temporal point processes.
New algorithm for identifying optimal arms in stochastic bandit problems.
The study examines neural networks with random weights and biases, finding that depth-to-width ratio controls fluctuations and correlations.
Artificial neural networks face the well-known problem of catastrophic forgetting. What's worse, the degradation of previously learned skills becomes more severe as the task sequence increases, known as the long-term catastrophic forgetting. It is due to two facts: first, as the model learns more tasks, the intersectio…
The paper improves asymmetric causality tests by addressing inefficiencies and statistical significance issues.
Symmetry in neural networks affects generalization, as shown by CLT and RG transformations.
We consider estimating a low-dimensional parameter in an estimating equation involving high-dimensional nuisances that depend on the parameter. A central example is the efficient estimating equation for the (local) quantile treatment effect ((L)QTE) in causal inference, which involves as a nuisance the covariate-condit…
In this work, a statistical analysis of the distribution of daily fluctuations of the IPC, the Mexican Stock Market Index is presented. A sample of the IPC covering the 13-year period 04/19/1990 - 08/21/2003 was analyzed and the cumulative probability distribution of its daily logarithmic variations studied. Results sh…
Study quantifies how LLMs capture higher-order statistical structure using cumulant expansion.
Using methods introduced by Scargle in 1978 we derive a cumulative version of the Lomb periodogram that exhibits frequency independent statistics when applied to cumulative noise. We show how this cumulative Lomb periodogram allows us to estimate the significance of log-periodic signatures in the S&P 500 anti-bubble th…
The paper tackles best arm identification with minimal regret in experiments.
The stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem is a common model for sequential decision problems. In the standard setup, a decision maker has to choose at every instant between several competing arms, each of them provides a scalar random variable, referred to as a "reward." Nearly all research on this topic consider…
New algorithms for efficient causal interventions with budget constraints and without constraints.
The paper tackles causal bandits for SEMs, proposing algorithms that avoid estimating reward distributions.
Bayesian optimisation has gained great popularity as a tool for optimising the parameters of machine learning algorithms and models. Somewhat ironically, setting up the hyper-parameters of Bayesian optimisation methods is notoriously hard. While reasonable practical solutions have been advanced, they can often fail to …
Paper tackles transfer learning for contextual multi-armed bandits under covariate shift.
Kernelized cumulants improve statistical analysis in high-dimensional spaces.
A parameter-free PGD algorithm for convex optimization.
Neural networks can learn from higher-order cumulants efficiently, requiring quadratic samples.
The paper calculates bounds for risk metrics and entropies under partial information constraints.
A new GAN loss function based on cumulant generating functions improves stability and robustness.
Paper improves Thompson Sampling for linear contextual bandits.
Estimates financial market impacts of COVID-19 using time-varying kernel density.
Bayesian methods improve inference for cumulative probit models on large datasets.
The problem of an arbitrary truncated Levy flight description using the method of cumulant approach has been solved. The set of cumulants of the truncated Levy distribution given the assumption of arbitrary truncation has been found. The influence of truncation shape on the truncated Levy flight properties in the Gauss…
The paper studies estimation of parameters of diffusion market models from historical data. The standard definition of implied volatility for these models presents its value as an implicit function of several parameters, including the risk-free interest rate. In reality, the risk free interest rate is unknown and need …
We consider the problem of stochastic comparison of general Garch-like processes, for different parameters and different distributions of the innovations. We identify several stochastic orders that are propagated from the innovations to the Garch process itself, and discuss their interpretations. We focus on the convex…
We consider a stochastic bandit problem with infinitely many arms. In this setting, the learner has no chance of trying all the arms even once and has to dedicate its limited number of samples only to a certain number of arms. All previous algorithms for this setting were designed for minimizing the cumulative regret o…
We analyze the (unconditional) distribution of a linear predictor that is constructed after a data-driven model selection step in a linear regression model. First, we derive the exact finite-sample cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the linear predictor, and a simple approximation to this (complicated) cdf. We t…
Estimates causal effects using machine learning for binary treatment and mediator.
New algorithm minimizes cumulative loss in dynamic linear bandits without prior knowledge of comparator switches.
We leverage neural networks as universal approximators of monotonic functions to build a parameterization of conditional cumulative distribution functions (CDFs). By the application of automatic differentiation with respect to response variables and then to parameters of this CDF representation, we are able to build bl…