Algorithm for cryptoasset arbitrage exploiting Bitcoin's leading momentum.
problem Finding profitable trading opportunities in cryptoassets.
method Statistical arbitrage based on mean-reversion and momentum factors.
result Significant altcoin-Bitcoin arbitrage alpha identified.
We propose factor models for the cross-section of daily cryptoasset returns and provide source code for data downloads, computing risk factors and backtesting them out-of-sample. In "cryptoassets" we include all cryptocurrencies and a host of various other digital assets (coins and tokens) for which exchange market dat…
Study examines how crypto arbitrage affects XRP price and network correlation.
problem Impact of crypto arbitrage on XRP price and network correlation.
method Examined XRP price fluctuations and correlation tensor spectra of transaction networks across crypto exchanges.
result Arbitrage opportunities across crypto exchanges anti-correlate with XRP price during bubble periods.
Study finds cryptoasset markets inefficient due to capital reallocation frictions.
problem Inefficiency in cryptoasset markets due to capital reallocation frictions.
method Examined investments with dominant and secondary risk factors, derived equilibrium restrictions, and tested empirically.
result Empirical results strongly reject necessary equilibrium restrictions, indicating market inefficiency.
Research predicts XRP price anomalies using graph topologies.
problem Forecasting extreme price movements in XRP cryptoasset.
method Analyzed topological features of XRP transaction graphs.
result Topological features indicate extreme price surges.
The paper assesses VASPs' solvency using multiple data sources.
problem Insolvency risk in VASPs without systematic auditing.
method Cross-referencing cryptoasset wallets, balance sheets, and supervisory data.
result Inconsistent data between DLT transactions and balance sheets for some VASPs.
Investors in Bitcoin exhibit the disposition effect, selling winners and holding losers.
problem The disposition effect in cryptoassets, specifically Bitcoin.
method Using transaction data from cryptoasset exchanges, the study investigated Bitcoin investors' behavior.
result Bitcoin investors exhibit the disposition effect, with intensity varying over time.
Novel AMM model for pegged cryptoassets using nested OU processes.
problem Liquidity and risk management in markets for pegged cryptoassets.
method Multi-level nested Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) processes for exchange rate dynamics, calibrated and filtered AMM model.
result Consistent efficient quotes and improved liquidity provision for pegged cryptoassets.
Study examines cryptoasset service providers in Austria, revealing global integration and distinct responses to market shocks.
problem Understanding cryptoasset integration and stress behavior in national economies.
method Directly identified on-chain addresses of Austrian crypto-asset service providers, reconstructing transaction activity across multiple cryptocurrencies.
result Austrian crypto-asset service providers are globally integrated, with distinct responses to market shocks.
Study shows XRP price correlates with transaction network metrics.
problem Understanding the relationship between cryptoasset price and network metrics.
method Analysis of correlation tensor spectra, random matrix theory comparison, singular values investigation.
result Distinct correlation between XRP price and singular values during bubble and non-bubble periods.
The study analyzes XRP transaction networks to understand market dynamics.
problem Understanding market dynamics of XRP through transaction data.
method Weekly weighted directed networks are embedded into a vector space using network embedding techniques. A correlation tensor is calculated and analyzed using singular value decomposition.
result The correlation tensor provides insights into the system's behavior and dependence on model parameters.
Study analyzes financial intermediation costs in decentralized lending protocols.
problem Understanding the cost of financial intermediation in decentralized lending protocols.
method Analysis of publicly available data on rates, supply, borrow activity, and accounts.
result Ex-post margins are 1% and lower for stablecoin markets.
New algorithm finds more arbitrage opportunities in DEXs.
problem Detecting arbitrage loops and non-loops in decentralized exchanges.
method Combining line graph and modified Moore-Bellman-Ford algorithm.
result Found more arbitrage loops and non-loops compared to existing methods.
Established a relation between short-term and long-term arbitrage measures.
problem Non-equilibrium effects in financial markets.
method Geometric Arbitrage Theory and Stochastic Portfolio Theory.
result A connection between short-term and long-term arbitrage measures.
This paper introduces strategies to maximize arbitrage profits in decentralized exchanges.
problem Maximizing profits from arbitrage loops in decentralized exchanges.
method Three strategies: MaxPrice, MaxMax, and Convex Optimization.
result The Convex Optimization strategy yields the highest monetized arbitrage profit in theory and practice.
Study upper hedging prices for contingent claims in models with various types of arbitrage.
problem Valuation of contingent claims in market models with different types of arbitrage.
method Analysis of market models with increasing profit, strong arbitrage, and arbitrage of the first kind.
result Option prices are reduced when increasing profit is present, and corporate stock price processes can be derived from issuance and repurchase plans.
The paper explores arbitrage in financial markets under uncertainty using Wasserstein distance.
problem Investigating arbitrage in financial markets with distributional uncertainty.
method Using Wasserstein distance, the paper considers weak and strong forms of arbitrage conditions and introduces a relaxation called statistical arbitrage.
result The paper derives dual formulations of robust arbitrage conditions and conducts computational experiments to answer questions about ambiguity and statistical arbitrage.
The paper investigates cyclic arbitrage opportunities in decentralized exchanges.
problem Price discrepancies in decentralized exchanges lead to arbitrage opportunities.
method Theoretical framework and analysis of transaction-level data.
result Traders have executed over 292,606 cyclic arbitrages over eleven months, exploiting more than 138 million USD in revenue.
This note develops an arbitrage theory for a discrete-time market model without the assumption of the existence of a numéraire asset. Fundamental theorems of asset pricing are stated and proven in this context. The distinction between the notions of investment-consumption arbitrage and pure-investment arbitrage provide…
We construct and study market models admitting optimal arbitrage. We say that a model admits optimal arbitrage if it is possible, in a zero-interest rate setting, starting with an initial wealth of 1 and using only positive portfolios, to superreplicate a constant c>1. The optimal arbitrage strategy is the strategy for…
Geometric arbitrage theory uses quantum mechanics to model market dynamics and arbitrage opportunities.
problem Modeling and managing arbitrage opportunities in financial markets.
method Quantum mechanical approach to geometric arbitrage theory, solving the Schroedinger equation.
result Results from quantum mechanics align with classical stochastic models, providing consistency.
We generalize the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) to include the contribution of virtual arbitrage opportunities. We model the arbitrage return by a stochastic process. The latter is incorporated in the APT framework to calculate the correction to the APT due to the virtual arbitrage opportunities. The resulting relatio…
No-arbitrage constraints on implied variance slope are weak, leading to almost guaranteed arbitrage in many cases.
problem Weak constraints on implied variance slope in the Black-Scholes model lead to arbitrage opportunities.
method Analysis of constraints on implied variance slope and their implications for arbitrage.
result Arbitrage is almost always guaranteed in a wide range of slope values where constraints are enforced.
We refute Taleb's claim that election forecasts are arbitrage-violating.
problem The validity of probabilistic election forecasts using no-arbitrage pricing techniques.
method We use mild assumptions to show all forecasts are arbitrage-free.
result Taleb's heuristic for evaluating forecasts is incorrect.
We have embedded the classical theory of stochastic finance into a differential geometric framework called Geometric Arbitrage Theory and show that it is possible to: --Write arbitrage as curvature of a principal fibre bundle. --Parameterize arbitrage strategies by its holonomy. --Give the Fundamental Theorem of Asset …
We apply Geometric Arbitrage Theory to obtain results in mathematical finance for credit markets, which do not need stochastic differential geometry in their formulation. We obtain closed form equations involving default intensities and loss given defaults characterizing the no-free-lunch-with-vanishing-risk condition …
New method finds better arbitrage opportunities in AMMs.
problem Finding optimal arbitrage trades in multi-token AMMs.
method Closed-form solutions using convex optimisation.
result Better arbitrage opportunities than traditional methods.
We explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in hedging financial derivatives. We extend the asymptotic pricing theory presented by Fedotov and Panayides [Stochastic arbitrage return and its implication for option pricing, Physica A 345 (2005), 207-217] for the case of hedging a derivative when arbitrag…
Deep learning models reconstruct volatility surfaces from noisy data under no-arbitrage constraints.
problem Reconstructing implied volatility surfaces from sparse and noisy option quotes.
method Compared multiple neural architectures including Transformers, U-Nets, and variational autoencoders.
result Transformer and U-Net architectures achieve strong reconstruction accuracy, especially under sparse observation regimes.
In frictionless financial markets, no-arbitrage is a local property in time. This means that a discrete time model is arbitrage-free if and only if there does not exist a one-period-arbitrage. With capital gains taxes, this equivalence fails. For a model with a linear tax and one non-shortable risky stock, we introduce…
Extends Black-Scholes model to include arbitrage.
problem Formulating finance models without stochastic geometry.
method Geometric Arbitrage Theory applied to Black-Scholes PDE.
result Equivalence between market dynamics and utility maximization.
We obtain a deterministic characterisation of the \emph{no free lunch with vanishing risk}, the \emph{no generalised arbitrage} and the \emph{no relative arbitrage} conditions in the one-dimensional diffusion setting and examine how these notions of no-arbitrage relate to each other.
New characterisation of no-arbitrage condition in discrete time with multiple-priors.
problem Characterizing no-arbitrage in a multiple-priors setting.
method Proposed a new characterisation equivalent to existing no-arbitrage conditions.
result The new characterisation is equivalent to several no-arbitrage conditions and allows proof of important results.
A stock market is called diverse if no stock can dominate the market in terms of relative capitalization. On one hand, this natural property leads to arbitrage in diffusion models under mild assumptions. On the other hand, it is also easy to construct diffusion models which are both diverse and free of arbitrage. Can o…
Reflected geometric Brownian motion models are not arbitrage-free.
problem No-arbitrage condition violation in financial markets.
method Analysis of reflected geometric Brownian motion models.
result Models violate even the weakest no-arbitrage condition.
Develops a deep learning approach for statistical arbitrage.
problem Temporal price differences between similar assets.
method Constructs arbitrage portfolios using latent asset pricing factors and a convolutional transformer for time series signals.
result High risk-adjusted returns and Sharpe ratios with optimal trading policy.
New method finds arbitrage opportunities in fluctuating asset bands.
problem Finding arbitrage opportunities in fluctuating asset bands.
method Formulate as maximizing volatility within a price band, using convex-concave optimization.
result Approximately solves non-convex optimization problem for moving-band arbitrage.
In a model independent discrete time financial market, we discuss the richness of the family of martingale measures in relation to different notions of Arbitrage, generated by a class S of significant sets, which we call Arbitrage de la classe S. The choice of S reflects into the int…
We introduce the concept of spontaneous symmetry breaking to arbitrage modeling. In the model, the arbitrage strategy is considered as being in the symmetry breaking phase and the phase transition between arbitrage mode and no-arbitrage mode is triggered by a control parameter. We estimate the control parameter for mom…
Crypto-assets perform better than gold as safe-havens during market crashes.
problem Evaluating safe-haven properties of crypto-assets and gold during the 2020 market crash.
method Comparative analysis of Crypto-assets (Tether, Cardano, Dogecoin, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple) and gold for European indices.
result Tether, Cardano, and Dogecoin exhibited hedging properties similar to gold, while gold was not more efficient as a safe-haven.
New method for pricing financial products without no-arbitrage condition.
problem Pricing financial products without relying on no-arbitrage conditions.
method Convex duality and Fenchel conjugate for estimating super-replication cost.
result Endogenous weak no-arbitrage condition (AIP) leads to finite prices.
We investigate triangular arbitrage within the spot foreign exchange market using high-frequency executable prices. We show that triangular arbitrage opportunities do exist, but that most have short durations and small magnitudes. We find intra-day variations in the number and length of arbitrage opportunities, with la…
In the context of a general continuous financial market model, we study whether the additional information associated with an honest time gives rise to arbitrage profits. By relying on the theory of progressive enlargement of filtrations, we explicitly show that no kind of arbitrage profit can ever be realised strictly…
Study calculates arbitrage gains between two markets with limited liquidity.
problem Arbitrage gains between markets with limited liquidity.
method Modeling arbitrage gains using relative liquidity and trading volume, assuming quadratic trading costs.
result Arbitrage gains depend on relative liquidity and trading volume between markets.
Short selling is key to exploiting arbitrage opportunities in financial markets.
problem Theoretical basis for differences in financial service regulations.
method Analyzing semimartingales to show arbitrage opportunities require short selling.
result Arbitrage opportunities can only be exploited through short selling.
No arbitrage in financial markets with special semimartingales.
problem Proving the absence of arbitrage in non-numéraire financial markets.
method Proving the absence of arbitrage using a multiplicative special semimartingale deflator.
result The market is free of arbitrage if and only if there exists a multiplicative special semimartingale deflator.
This paper studies the concept of instantaneous arbitrage in continuous time and its relation to the instantaneous CAPM. Absence of instantaneous arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of a trading strategy which satisfies the CAPM beta pricing relation in place of the market. Thus the difference between the arbitrag…
Faster Ethereum slots boost CEX-DEX arbitrage by 535% and 203%.
problem Reducing Ethereum slot time impacts CEX-DEX arbitrage opportunities.
method Developed a trading model to simulate and compare agent behavior under different slot times.
result Faster slot times increase CEX-DEX arbitrage activity and returns.