arXiv research

Wisdom of the crowd, the collective intelligence derived from responses of multiple human or machine individuals to the same questions, can be more accurate than each individual, and improve social decision-making and prediction accuracy. This can also integrate multiple programs or datasets, each as an individual, for…

The average portfolio structure of institutional investors is shown to have properties which account for transaction costs in an optimal way. This implies that financial institutions unknowingly display collective rationality, or Wisdom of the Crowd. Individual deviations from the rational benchmark are ample, which il…

Crowdsourced wisdom improves causal learning.

Sentiment Analysis of microblog feeds has attracted considerable interest in recent times. Most of the current work focuses on tweet sentiment classification. But not much work has been done to explore how reliable the opinions of the mass (crowd wisdom) in social network microblogs such as twitter are in predicting ou…

The Wisdom of Crowds is a phenomenon described in social science that suggests four criteria applicable to groups of people. It is claimed that, if these criteria are satisfied, then the aggregate decisions made by a group will often be better than those of its individual members. Inspired by this concept, we present a…

This contribution discusses in what respect Econophysics may be able to contribute to the rebuilding of economics theory. It focuses on aggregation, individual vs collective learning and functional wisdom of the crowds.

Study predicts Euroleague basketball games with simple models, less accurate than crowds.

Lower bounds show OLS outperforms basis pursuit in overparameterized linear regression.

The Wisdom of Crowds (WOC), as a theory in the social science, gets a new paradigm in computer science. The WOC theory explains that the aggregate decision made by a group is often better than those of its individual members if specific conditions are satisfied. This paper presents a novel framework for unsupervised an…

The paper proposes a new method for learning reward models from ordinal feedback, improving upon binary feedback.

Allowing members of the crowd to propose novel microtasks for one another is an effective way to combine the efficiencies of traditional microtask work with the inventiveness and hypothesis generation potential of human workers. However, microtask proposal leads to a growing set of tasks that may overwhelm limited crow…

New method identifies informed traders in prediction markets.

Ensemble methods get better with more models if loss function is convex.

Ensembles of neural networks learn better by sharing information.

Mobile sensing is an emerging technology that utilizes agent-participatory data for decision making or state estimation, including multimedia applications. This article investigates the structure of mobile sensing schemes and introduces crowdsourcing methods for mobile sensing. Inspired by social network, one can estab…

When dealing with subjective, noisy, or otherwise nebulous features, the "wisdom of crowds" suggests that one may benefit from multiple judgments of the same feature on the same object. We give theoretically-motivated `feature multi-selection' algorithms that choose, among a large set of candidate features, not only wh…

Crowdsourcing utilizes the wisdom of crowds for collective classification via information (e.g., labels of an item) provided by labelers. Current crowdsourcing algorithms are mainly unsupervised methods that are unaware of the quality of crowdsourced data. In this paper, we propose a supervised collective classificatio…

The unprecedented demand for large amount of data has catalyzed the trend of combining human insights with machine learning techniques, which facilitate the use of crowdsourcing to enlist label information both effectively and efficiently. The classic work on crowdsourcing mainly focuses on the label inference problem …

Wisdom of the crowd revealed a striking fact that the majority answer from a crowd is often more accurate than any individual expert. We observed the same story in machine learning--ensemble methods leverage this idea to combine multiple learning algorithms to obtain better classification performance. Among many popula…

Crowdsourcing has become a popular method for collecting labeled training data. However, in many practical scenarios traditional labeling can be difficult for crowdworkers (for example, if the data is high-dimensional or unintuitive, or the labels are continuous). In this work, we develop a novel model for crowdsourcin…

Crowdsourcing platforms emerged as popular venues for purchasing human intelligence at low cost for large volume of tasks. As many low-paid workers are prone to give noisy answers, a common practice is to add redundancy by assigning multiple workers to each task and then simply average out these answers. However, to fu…

BaMANI uses ensemble learning to improve Bayesian network inference.

In spite of the many advantages of aerial imagery for crowd monitoring and management at mass events, datasets of aerial images of crowds are still lacking in the field. As a remedy, in this work we introduce a novel crowd dataset, the DLR Aerial Crowd Dataset (DLR-ACD), which is composed of 33 large aerial images acqu…

Social media communications are becoming increasingly prevalent; some useful, some false, whether unwittingly or maliciously. An increasing number of rumours daily flood the social networks. Determining their veracity in an autonomous way is a very active and challenging field of research, with a variety of methods pro…

It is common for CCTV operators to overlook inter- esting events taking place within the crowd due to large number of people in the crowded scene (i.e. marathon, rally). Thus, there is a dire need to automate the detection of salient crowd regions acquiring immediate attention for a more effective and proactive surveil…

Eliciting labels from crowds is a potential way to obtain large labeled data. Despite a variety of methods developed for learning from crowds, a key challenge remains unsolved: \emph{learning from crowds without knowing the information structure among the crowds a priori, when some people of the crowds make highly corr…

We found that factors decay over time, with momentum fitting best.

In evaluating prediction markets (and other crowd-prediction mechanisms), investigators have repeatedly observed a so-called "wisdom of crowds" effect, which roughly says that the average of participants performs much better than the average participant. The market price---an average or at least aggregate of traders' b…

Bayesian approach improves crowdsourcing predictions.

Machine learning outperforms crowd investors in predicting loan defaults and investment returns.

Crowding is most likely an important factor in the deterioration of strategy performance, the increase of trading costs and the development of systemic risk. We study the imprints of \emph{crowding} on both anonymous market data and a large database of metaorders from institutional investors in the U.S. equity market. …

We propose a Multi-Task Learning (MTL) paradigm based deep neural network architecture, called MTCNet (Multi-Task Crowd Network) for crowd density and count estimation. Crowd count estimation is challenging due to the non-uniform scale variations and the arbitrary perspective of an individual image. The proposed model …

The paper interprets financial markets as crowds during booms and busts.

A model-free hedging method using stock crowding scores.

Traffic flow prediction is crucial for urban traffic management and public safety. Its key challenges lie in how to adaptively integrate the various factors that affect the flow changes. In this paper, we propose a unified neural network module to address this problem, called Attentive Crowd Flow Machine~(ACFM), which …

Remembering our day-to-day social interactions is challenging even if you aren't a blue memory challenged fish. The ability to automatically detect and remember these types of interactions is not only beneficial for individuals interested in their behavior in crowded situations, but also of interest to those who analyz…

Investment herding can reduce household consumption, a phenomenon called crowding-out effect.

Gatherings of thousands to millions of people frequently occur for an enormous variety of events, and automated counting of these high-density crowds is useful for safety, management, and measuring significance of an event. In this work, we show that the regularly accepted labeling scheme of crowd density maps for trai…

This paper proposes a general model for synchronized crowding behavior. An order parameter is introduced to quantify the level of synchronization which is shown a function of percentage of agents in reactive state. Further, synchronization is shown to be driven by the most active agents with the highest volatility. A t…

Evidence shows that in a significant number of cases the current methods of research do not allow for reproducible and falsifiable procedures of scientific investigation. As a consequence, the majority of critical decisions at all levels, from personal investment choices to overreaching global policies, rely on some va…

The new digital revolution of big data is deeply changing our capability of understanding society and forecasting the outcome of many social and economic systems. Unfortunately, information can be very heterogeneous in the importance, relevance, and surprise it conveys, affecting severely the predictive power of semant…

WISDoM (Wishart Distributed Matrices) is a new framework for the quantification of deviation of symmetric positive-definite matrices associated to experimental samples, like covariance or correlation matrices, from expected ones governed by the Wishart distribution WISDoM can be applied to tasks of supervised learning,…

Enhances crowd safety through AI and data-driven models.

Crowded trades by similarly trading peers influence the dynamics of asset prices, possibly creating systemic risk. We propose a market clustering measure using granular trading data. For each stock the clustering measure captures the degree of trading overlap among any two investors in that stock. We investigate the ef…

Low dimensional embeddings that capture the main variations of interest in collections of data are important for many applications. One way to construct these embeddings is to acquire estimates of similarity from the crowd. However, similarity is a multi-dimensional concept that varies from individual to individual. Ex…

Study improves forecasting of ED crowding using advanced ML models.

Market crowd trading behavior and volume impact stock prices in China.

Reviews six finance topics, including 'radical complexity'.