The paper interprets financial markets as crowds during booms and busts.
problem Understanding market irrationality during booms and busts.
method Integrates crowd psychology into behavioural finance.
result Markets behave like psychological crowds during booms and busts.
Firm foundation theory estimates a security's firm fundamental value based on four determinants: expected growth rate, expected dividend payout, the market interest rate and the degree of risk. In contrast, other views of decision-making in the stock market, using alternatives such as human psychology and behavior, bou…
MRCNet tackles crowd counting and density mapping in aerial imagery.
problem Accurate crowd counting and density estimation in aerial imagery.
method MRCNet is a novel encoder-decoder CNN that combines VGG-16 with FPN-inspired lateral connections.
result MRCNet outperforms state-of-the-art methods in aerial and CCTV-based crowd counting.
It is common for CCTV operators to overlook inter- esting events taking place within the crowd due to large number of people in the crowded scene (i.e. marathon, rally). Thus, there is a dire need to automate the detection of salient crowd regions acquiring immediate attention for a more effective and proactive surveil…
Eliciting labels from crowds is a potential way to obtain large labeled data. Despite a variety of methods developed for learning from crowds, a key challenge remains unsolved: \emph{learning from crowds without knowing the information structure among the crowds a priori, when some people of the crowds make highly corr…
We found that factors decay over time, with momentum fitting best.
problem Understanding how factors decay over time and their impact on performance.
method Derived a hyperbolic decay model for factors, tested against linear and exponential alternatives.
result Momentum exhibits hyperbolic decay, outperforming linear and exponential models.
Study shows how 'crowding' in equity trading affects performance and costs.
problem Deterioration of strategy performance, increased trading costs, and systemic risk due to equity factor crowding.
method Direct metrics of crowding based on imbalances of trades executed on the market, analyzing U.S. equity market data.
result Significant signs of crowding in well-known equity signals, especially Momentum, affecting order flow and portfolio rebalancing.
Wisdom of the crowd, the collective intelligence derived from responses of multiple human or machine individuals to the same questions, can be more accurate than each individual, and improve social decision-making and prediction accuracy. This can also integrate multiple programs or datasets, each as an individual, for…
The author suggests using non-Euclidean geometry for psychometric models.
problem Current psychometric models lack geometric insights.
method Illustrates how non-Euclidean geometry can be applied to psychometrics.
result Geometric concepts may improve psychometric model understanding.
Crowd opinions in microblogs can predict event outcomes, matching with expert opinions.
problem Utilizing crowd wisdom for event outcome prediction in microblogs.
method Multi-label sentiment classification of tweets to gauge crowd opinion and compare with expert predictions.
result Crowd opinions in microblogs often match with expert opinions, especially in non-debate events.
AI models assess psychological risks in currency trading.
problem Identifying psychological risks in currency traders.
method Developed a decision tree model to identify patterns in historical data.
result Enhanced decision-making through real-time alerts.
Crowded trades cluster investors, affecting stock price stability.
problem Crowded trades lead to price instability and systemic risk.
method Market clustering measure using granular trading data.
result Market clustering has a causal effect on stock return distribution tails, especially positive tail.
The book explores essential stats and psychology for quantitative trading.
problem Developing a quantitative trading system.
method Logical progression through articles on statistics, quantitative trading, and psychology.
result Essential elements for quantitative trading systems.
Machine learning outperforms crowd investors in predicting loan defaults and investment returns.
problem Determining if machine learning can outperform human decision-making in crowd lending.
method Using data from Prosper.com, a sophisticated ML algorithm was trained to predict loan defaults and investment returns.
result The ML algorithm outperforms crowd investors in predicting loan defaults and investment returns, especially for risky loans.
The cognitive framework of conceptual spaces bridges the gap between symbolic and subsymbolic AI by proposing an intermediate conceptual layer where knowledge is represented geometrically. There are two main approaches for obtaining the dimensions of this conceptual similarity space: using similarity ratings from psych…
We propose a Multi-Task Learning (MTL) paradigm based deep neural network architecture, called MTCNet (Multi-Task Crowd Network) for crowd density and count estimation. Crowd count estimation is challenging due to the non-uniform scale variations and the arbitrary perspective of an individual image. The proposed model …
A model-free hedging method using stock crowding scores.
problem Designing costless portfolio strategies to hedge market risk.
method Network analysis of fund holdings to compute crowding scores, constructing long-short portfolios without numerical optimization.
result Long-short portfolios provide protection against both small and large market price fluctuations.
New model explains price dynamics of Bitcoin with psychological factors.
problem Understanding price variations in cryptocurrency markets with psychological factors.
method Extended agent-based model with heterogeneous psychological parameters.
result Model shows diverse dynamics based on psychological correlation.
Crowdsourced wisdom improves causal learning.
problem Improving causal learning through collective intelligence.
method Crowdsourcing, expert knowledge elicitation, aggregation techniques, and LLMs.
result Collective contributions enhance global causal structure.
Traffic flow prediction is crucial for urban traffic management and public safety. Its key challenges lie in how to adaptively integrate the various factors that affect the flow changes. In this paper, we propose a unified neural network module to address this problem, called Attentive Crowd Flow Machine~(ACFM), which …
Remembering our day-to-day social interactions is challenging even if you aren't a blue memory challenged fish. The ability to automatically detect and remember these types of interactions is not only beneficial for individuals interested in their behavior in crowded situations, but also of interest to those who analyz…
The average portfolio structure of institutional investors is shown to have properties which account for transaction costs in an optimal way. This implies that financial institutions unknowingly display collective rationality, or Wisdom of the Crowd. Individual deviations from the rational benchmark are ample, which il…
Investment herding can reduce household consumption, a phenomenon called crowding-out effect.
problem Investment herding's impact on household consumption.
method Optimal control theory to model and solve for household investment and consumption decisions.
result Existence of crowding-out effect due to investment herding.
Gatherings of thousands to millions of people frequently occur for an enormous variety of events, and automated counting of these high-density crowds is useful for safety, management, and measuring significance of an event. In this work, we show that the regularly accepted labeling scheme of crowd density maps for trai…
Evidence shows that in a significant number of cases the current methods of research do not allow for reproducible and falsifiable procedures of scientific investigation. As a consequence, the majority of critical decisions at all levels, from personal investment choices to overreaching global policies, rely on some va…
This paper proposes a general model for synchronized crowding behavior. An order parameter is introduced to quantify the level of synchronization which is shown a function of percentage of agents in reactive state. Further, synchronization is shown to be driven by the most active agents with the highest volatility. A t…
New framework for forecasting psychological processes from ILD.
problem Forecasting psychological processes at the individual level from ILD.
method A novel modeling framework addressing challenges in ILD.
result Improved forecasting of psychological processes at the individual level.
Study uses AI to simulate stock market behavior, revealing how trader psychology affects market stability.
problem Understanding how trader psychology impacts stock market stability at the mesoscale.
method Developed a multi-agent system with reinforcement learning, incorporating trader psychology traits.
result Agents with traits of delay discounting and greed lead to more stable markets.
New method addresses crowding in high-dimensional data visualization.
problem Crowding issue in visualizing high-dimensional data.
method Adjusting capacity of high-dimensional balls and estimating correlation dimension.
result Mitigates crowding in various distance metrics.
Enhances crowd safety through AI and data-driven models.
problem Improving crowd safety during events.
method Innovative data collection, AI, and machine learning.
result Accurate multi-day forecasts for event planning.
Low dimensional embeddings that capture the main variations of interest in collections of data are important for many applications. One way to construct these embeddings is to acquire estimates of similarity from the crowd. However, similarity is a multi-dimensional concept that varies from individual to individual. Ex…
Study improves forecasting of ED crowding using advanced ML models.
problem Improving forecasting of emergency department crowding.
method Advanced machine learning models (N-BEATS, LightGBM, DeepAR) using multivariable input data.
result N-BEATS and LightGBM outperform benchmarks in forecasting ED occupancy.
Cost forecasting helps crowdsourcers manage growing task sets efficiently.
problem Crowdsourcers face resource overwhelm with growing task sets.
method Cost forecasting to decide between new tasks or existing ones based on cost efficiency.
result Cost forecasting improves accuracy and efficiency in crowdsourcing.
Market crowd trading behavior and volume impact stock prices in China.
problem Little known about the role of trading volume in market behavior.
method Adaptive hypotheses tested on Chinese stock market data.
result Market crowd trades efficiently and achieves agreement on prices.
Paper reviews intrinsic motivations and their role in open-ended learning.
problem Understanding intrinsic motivations and their role in open-ended learning.
method Defining intrinsic motivations, presenting psychological/neuroscientific and computational models.
result Links between psychological/neuroscientific and computational models of intrinsic motivations.
IPGP framework improves psychological assessment by integrating shared and unique traits.
problem Tackles the debate on shared vs unique personality traits across individuals.
method Uses Gaussian process coregionalization model for non-Gaussian ordinal data, with stochastic variational inference for scalability.
result Improves prediction and estimation of individualized factor structures compared to existing methods.
The Wisdom of Crowds is a phenomenon described in social science that suggests four criteria applicable to groups of people. It is claimed that, if these criteria are satisfied, then the aggregate decisions made by a group will often be better than those of its individual members. Inspired by this concept, we present a…
Bayesian method predicts individual and crowd preferences from small data.
problem Difficult to predict preferences from limited personal data and noisy labels.
method Combines matrix factorization with Gaussian processes for scalable inference.
result Method predicts preferences for new users and items not in training set.
Dual Variable Learning Rates improve neural network training efficiency.
problem Training neural networks efficiently and effectively.
method DVLR uses different learning rates for correct and incorrect responses, and adjusts rates based on network performance.
result DVLR consistently improves neural network accuracy across different types and domains.
Reviews six finance topics, including 'radical complexity'.
problem None explicitly stated, focuses on research directions.
method Informal review and discussion of open questions.
result No specific key result mentioned, focuses on research directions.
New method accurately reconstructs Russell 3000 index, revealing crowded portfolios.
problem Crowding in index portfolios during reconstitution events.
method Developed a Python package for accurate index reconstruction using CRSP US Stock data.
result Annual Russell 3000 portfolios are more crowded than quarterly ones, suggesting lower transaction costs.
PsychFM predicts individual gambling choices using psychological and machine learning models.
problem Predicting individual gambling choices with high precision.
method PsychFM combines machine learning and psychological theories.
result PsychFM outperforms existing models like random forest and factorization machines.
Bayesian deep learning counts crowds robustly despite occlusions and scale variations.
problem Accurately counting individuals in crowded scenes with occlusions and varying sizes.
method Proposes a Bayesian multi-scale neural network with a ResNet feature extractor, dilated convolutions, and a Perspective-aware Aggregation Module.
result Achieves superior performance on crowd counting benchmarks with uncertainty estimates.
Lower bounds show OLS outperforms basis pursuit in overparameterized linear regression.
problem Excess risk of sparse interpolating procedures in overparameterized linear regression.
method Proved lower bounds on excess risk for OLS and basis pursuit.
result Excess risk of basis pursuit can converge at an exponentially slower rate than OLS.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved unprecedented performance on a wide range of complex tasks, rapidly outpacing our understanding of the nature of their solutions. This has caused a recent surge of interest in methods for rendering modern neural systems more interpretable. In this work, we propose to address th…
Method learns behavioral states from wearable sensor data.
problem Understanding behavioral patterns from sensor data.
method Non-parametric Bayesian approach to model sensor data.
result Learned behavioral states cluster participants into meaningful groups and predict psychological states.
Study predicts Euroleague basketball games with simple models, less accurate than crowds.
problem Predicting Euroleague basketball games with machine learning.
method Extracted features from Euroleague data, applied supervised machine learning techniques.
result Simple machine learning models achieve accuracy of less than 67% on test sets, outperformed by crowds.
A new model of learning corrects for chance to improve learning outcomes.
problem The importance of chance-corrected measures in learning.
method Developed two models: Informatron and AdaBook, based on empirical psychological results.
result Chance correction facilitates learning, as shown by computational results.