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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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70141211281 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for cross-sectional dynamics

Set-Sequence model learns cross-sectional dynamics directly from time series data.

problem Predicting large cross-sections of time series data with latent cross-sectional dynamics.
method A model that learns cross-sectional structure directly, enhancing expressivity and eliminating manual feature engineering.
result Significantly outperforms strong baselines in equity portfolio optimization and loan risk prediction.

PRISM-VQ combines financial priors with vector quantization for better stock prediction.

problem Predicting cross-sectional stock returns is hard due to low signal-to-noise ratios and changing market conditions.
method Integrates expert priors, vector-quantized latent factors, and dynamic factor loadings.
result Consistent improvements in cross-sectional return prediction and portfolio performance.

Modeling how individuals evolve over time is a fundamental problem in the natural and social sciences. However, existing datasets are often cross-sectional with each individual observed only once, making it impossible to apply traditional time-series methods. Motivated by the study of human aging, we present an interpr…

2018-07-12abs ↗pdf ↗

CLSB models system dynamics from cross-sectional data with population-level regularization.

problem Challenges in modeling system dynamics from limited cross-sectional samples and heterogeneous individual behaviors.
method Introduces CLSB framework for learning dynamics, regularized for population-level temporal variations.
result Empirically superior in single-cell sequencing data analyses, e.g., simulating cell development and drug response.

The paper finds stocks with higher dynamic network risk have lower returns.

problem Understanding and pricing short-term and long-term dynamic network risk in stock returns.
method Examined the relationship between stock sensitivities to dynamic network risk and expected returns, using economic theory and empirical analysis.
result A one-standard deviation increase in long-term network risk loadings associates with a 7.66% drop in annualized expected returns.

The paper defines cross-section continuity for angular momentum definitions and finds the CWY definition valid.

problem Defining angular momentum at null infinity and ensuring its continuity across different cross-sections.
method Introducing cross-section continuity as a criterion and proving it for specific angular momentum definitions.
result The Chen-Wang-Yau definition of angular momentum satisfies cross-section continuity, while the Compere-Nichols modification does not.

We resolve parts (A) and (B) of Problem 1.100 from Kirby's list by showing that many nontrivial links arise as cross-sections of unknotted holomorphic disks in the four-ball. The techniques can be used to produce unknotted ribbon surfaces with prescribed cross-sections, including unknotted Lagrangian disks with nontriv…

2018-01-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Study analyzes market co-movements in critical mineral investments using change point detection and cross-sectional analysis.

problem Market dynamics in critical mineral investments during significant global events.
method Combines change-point detection (PELT algorithm) with cross-sectional analysis on ESG-ranked ETFs.
result Investors herded during market downturns and shifted to anti-herding after positive news and geopolitical shocks.

The study identifies flat manifolds with unique cusp cross-sections in arithmetic hyperbolic manifolds.

problem Characterizing flat manifolds that have unique cusp cross-sections in arithmetic hyperbolic manifolds.
method Algebraic characterization of cusp cross-sections in arithmetic hyperbolic manifolds.
result Construction of flat manifolds with unique cusp cross-sections and proof of their existence in all dimensions n32n \geq 32.

New algorithm improves asset ranking for better cross-sectional portfolios.

problem Sub-optimal ranking of assets in cross-sectional systematic strategies.
method Learning-to-rank algorithms to enhance portfolio construction.
result Modern machine learning ranking algorithms boost Sharpe Ratios by approximately threefold.

Conditions for flat manifolds as cusp cross-sections in arithmetic hyperbolic manifolds.

problem Determining when a flat manifold can be a cusp cross-section in arithmetic hyperbolic manifolds.
method Analyzing rational representations of holonomy groups and quasi-arithmetic manifolds.
result Conditions for a flat manifold to appear as a cusp cross-section in every commensurability class of arithmetic hyperbolic manifolds.

TQA improves prediction intervals for time series data by adjusting quantiles for both cross-sectional and longitudinal coverage.

problem Constructing reliable prediction intervals for cross-sectional time series data.
method Temporal Quantile Adjustment (TQA) method that adjusts the quantile in Conformal Prediction to account for both cross-sectional and longitudinal coverage.
result TQA improves longitudinal coverage while preserving cross-sectional coverage, as validated through extensive experimentation.

The paper evaluates forecast accuracy of realized volatility measures in large cross-sections.

problem Forecast evaluation of realized volatility measures in large cross-sections of financial data.
method Equal predictive accuracy testing procedures, LASSO shrinkage, measurement error correction, cross-sectional jump component measures.
result The augmented HAR model outperforms the standard HAR model in forecasting realized volatility.

CPTD improves prediction intervals in time series regression with cross-sectional data.

problem Constructing valid prediction intervals in time series regression with a cross-section.
method Conformal Prediction with Temporal Dependence (CPTD) for post-hoc, light-weight approach.
result CPTD maintains cross-sectional validity while improving longitudinal coverage.

Unified model learns from both time-series and cross-sectional momentum features.

problem Separate time-series and cross-sectional momentum strategies do not consider concurrent relationships.
method Spatio-Temporal Momentum strategies using neural networks to combine both types of momentum.
result Simple neural network with single fully connected layer generates trading signals for all assets.

We discuss a simple, exactly solvable model of stochastic stock dynamics that incorporates regime switching between healthy and distressed regimes. Using this model, which is analytically tractable, we discuss a way of extracting expected returns for stocks from realized CDS spreads, essentially, the CDS market sentime…

2019-10-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Study on stability of surfaces in null cones under area-preserving variations.

problem Investigating stability of spacelike cross sections of null cones.
method Area-preserving variations, Hawking energy analysis, spherical cross sections.
result Only round spheres are stable cross sections of the standard Minkowski lightcone.

A new model decomposes equity returns and volatilities into memory components.

problem Understanding long-term equity dynamics and volatility patterns.
method Proposes a multivariate generalization of the variance ratio to decompose long-horizon equity dynamics.
result Identifies a five-factor model capturing persistent, antipersistent, and multi-scale memory in returns and volatility.

EPD method accurately captures parameter distributions from RCS data.

problem Limitations of traditional methods in estimating parameter distributions from RCS data.
method EPD method generates synthetic trajectories, estimates parameters, and selects parameters based on discrepancy.
result EPD provides accurate distribution of parameters without data loss.

We propose a simple discrete time semi-supervised graph embedding approach to link prediction in dynamic networks. The learned embedding reflects information from both the temporal and cross-sectional network structures, which is performed by defining the loss function as a weighted sum of the supervised loss from past…

2016-10-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Motivated by a question of Hirzebruch on the possible topological types of cusp cross-sections of Hilbert modular varieties, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for a manifold M to be diffeomorphic to a cusp cross-section of a Hilbert modular variety. Specialized to Hilbert modular surfaces, this proves that e…

2007-06-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Model liquidity premia using a risk-sharing economy with quadratic costs.

problem Understanding the cross-section of liquidity premia earned by assets with different trading costs.
method Developed a risk-sharing economy model with quadratic transaction costs, leading to matrix-valued Riccati equations for equilibrium.
result Calibrated model to time series data, revealing liquidity premia across assets with varying trading costs.

Classifies Nil 3-manifolds as cross-sections of complex hyperbolic surfaces.

problem Identifying Nil 3-manifolds as cross-sections of complex hyperbolic surfaces.
method Comprehensive classification of commensurability classes of cusped, arithmetic, and non-arithmetic complex hyperbolic 2-manifolds.
result Some Nil 3-manifolds are cross-sections in every commensurability class, while others are cross-sections in only one.

ULES embeds dynamic networks with stability guarantees.

problem Stability of time-varying node embeddings in evolving networks.
method Unfolded Laplacian Spectral Embedding (ULSE) using normalized Laplacian operators.
result ULES satisfies cross-sectional and longitudinal stability under dynamic stochastic block model.

Machine learning portfolios perform well with simple imputation of missing data.

problem Handling missing values in machine learning portfolios constructed from cross-sectional return predictors.
method Simple imputation with cross-sectional means compared to rigorous expectation-maximization methods.
result Simple imputation performs well due to the structure of missing data.

The paper examines how long-memory dynamics, rough-volatility, and persistence affect equity volatility forecasting.

problem The study investigates how long-memory dynamics, rough-volatility, and persistence impact equity volatility forecasting.
method The paper combines semiparametric long-memory estimation, rough-volatility diagnostics, and structured forecasting regressions.
result Persistence measures improve out-of-sample volatility forecasts, particularly during periods of elevated market volatility and in volatility-managed portfolio applications.

Simple bounds show most cross-sectional predictability findings are likely true.

problem Determining the validity of cross-sectional return predictability findings.
method Developed simple and intuitive bounds on the false discovery rate (FDR).
result Bounds show the FDR is small, indicating most findings are likely true.

Weyl's tube formula holds for various cross-sections under symmetry conditions.

problem Can the volume of tubes around submanifolds be calculated for non-round cross-sections?
method Investigated the volume of tubes with general cross-sections D under symmetry conditions.
result The volume of tubes around submanifolds can be calculated for general cross-sections under symmetry conditions.

Pipeline integrates cross-sectional and longitudinal multi-omics data for IBD research.

problem Integrating diverse data types from the same individuals for disease understanding.
method Statistical and deep learning methods for variable selection, feature extraction, and joint integration.
result Identified microbial pathways, metabolites, and genes discriminating IBD status.

A new model explains asset returns with a single factor, improving cross-sectional performance.

problem Understanding the cross-section of asset returns with complex models.
method Proposes a non-linear single-factor asset pricing model with a nonparametric link function estimated jointly with sieve-based estimators.
result The model delivers superior cross-sectional performance with a low-dimensional approximation of the link function.

Study shows different types of volatility and skewness changes affect stock prices.

problem Different types of volatility and skewness changes affect stock prices.
method Used intraday data for individual stocks to analyze cross-section of asset returns.
result Idiosyncratic transitory and persistent shocks to volatility and skewness are priced differently in stock returns.

LPCI provides valid prediction intervals for longitudinal data.

problem Current conformal prediction methods for time series data lack cross-sectional coverage when applied to longitudinal datasets.
method Modeling residual data as a quantile fixed-effects regression problem, constructing prediction intervals with a trained quantile regressor.
result LPCI achieves valid cross-sectional coverage and outperforms existing benchmarks in terms of longitudinal coverage rates.

Study on identifying and inferring nonlinear dynamics on unknown networks.

problem Identifying network structure in nonlinear dynamic systems with unknown interactions.
method Showed network structure is not generically identified, requiring sufficient spectral heterogeneity. Developed necessary and sufficient conditions for identification and proposed a semiparametric estimator.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for identification of network structure in nonlinear dynamic systems.

New method tests Granger non-causality in panel data with cross-sectional dependencies.

problem Testing Granger non-causality in panel data with cross-sectional dependencies.
method Proposes a new approach to aggregate p-values from panel members to test Granger non-causality, showing lower FDR.
result Our approach discovers true causal relations in panel data, unlike state-of-the-art methods.

Proposes a graph neural network for futures price prediction.

problem Challenges in high-frequency trading of futures prices.
method Heterogeneous Continual Graph Neural Network (STGNN) integrating multi-factor pricing theories.
result Outperforms other models in prediction accuracy on 49 commodity futures.

Study on stock market volatility and return dispersion during COVID-19.

problem Impact of COVID-19 on stock market volatility and return dispersion.
method Used Google index to proxy epidemic impact, modeled volatility, and analyzed influencing factors of log-return.
result Volatility significantly affected by epidemic and cross-sectional return dispersion, with positive coefficients.