A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Grey-box model combines GP with motion data to analyze skiing forces.
Project uses machine learning to identify skiers' techniques from power meter data.
It is shown that if is a strongly causal free of naked singularities space-time, then its causal structure is completely characterized by a partial order in the space of skies defined by means of a class non-negative Legendrian isotopies. It is also proved that such partial order is determined by the class of futur…
A new GP inference method using simplices for high-dimensional data.
We introduce a new structured kernel interpolation (SKI) framework, which generalises and unifies inducing point methods for scalable Gaussian processes (GPs). SKI methods produce kernel approximations for fast computations through kernel interpolation. The SKI framework clarifies how the quality of an inducing point a…
SKI accelerates GP inference with sparse grids to handle higher dimensions.
This paper analyzes error in SKI for Gaussian Processes, providing conditions for linear time inference.
Study examines diversification of mid-mountain ski tourism.
We consider a variant of the classic Ski Rental online algorithm with applications to machine learning. In our variant, we allow the skier access to a black-box machine-learning algorithm that provides an estimate of the probability that there will be at most a threshold number of ski-days. We derive a class of optimal…
A reconstruction theorem in terms of the topology and geometrical structures on the spaces of light rays and skies of a given space-time is discussed. This result can be seen as part of Penrose and Low's programme intending to describe the causal structure of a space-time in terms of the topological and geometrical…
Efficiently maps indoor magnetic fields with SKI and D-SKI.
Using data from a sample of 28 representatives countries, we propose a classification of currency crises consequences based on the ultrametric analysis of the real exchange rate movements time series, without any further assumption. By using the matrix of synchronous linear correlation coefficients and the appropriate …
This paper deals with the stability properties of a closed market, where capital and labour force are acting like a predator-prey system in population-dynamics. The spatial movement of the capital and labour force are taken into account by cross-diffusion effect. First, we are showing two possible ways for modeling thi…
The study examines cross-border lending behavior from G7 countries, showing changes in driving factors after the 2008 financial crisis.
The recent financial crisis has stressed the need to understand financial systems as networks of interdependent countries, where cross-border financial linkages play the fundamental role. It has also been emphasized that the relevance of these networks relies on the representation of changes follow-on the occurrence of…
SoftKI combines SKI and variational methods for scalable GP regression.
We study the international interbank market through a geometrical and a topological analysis of empirical data. The geometrical analysis of the time series of cross-country liabilities shows that the systematic information of the interbank international market is contained in a space of small dimension, from which a to…
Recent work shows that inference for Gaussian processes can be performed efficiently using iterative methods that rely only on matrix-vector multiplications (MVMs). Structured Kernel Interpolation (SKI) exploits these techniques by deriving approximate kernels with very fast MVMs. Unfortunately, such strategies suffer …
The evolution of personal income distribution (PID) in four countries: Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the USA follows a unique trajectory. We have revealed precise match in the shape of two age-dependent features of the PID: mean income and the portion of people with the highest incomes (2 to 5% of the working age po…
This paper investigates the statistical properties of within-country GDP and industrial production (IP) growth rate distributions. Many empirical contributions have recently pointed out that cross-section growth rates of firms, industries and countries all follow Laplace distributions. In this work, we test whether als…
Contrary to conventional economic growth theory, which reduces a country's output to one aggregate variable (GDP), product diversity is central to economic development, as recent 'economic complexity' research suggests. A country's product diversity reflects its diversity of knowhow or 'capabilities'. Researchers propo…
Analyzed banking crises across 66 countries, showing interconnections and clustering patterns.
The paper proposes calibration to improve algorithm performance using machine learning predictions.
Transformer model outperforms classical methods in childhood anemia prediction across diverse countries.
SKI speeds up Toeplitz Neural Networks by avoiding explicit decay bias and using frequency response.
This paper investigates how economic shocks propagate and amplify through the input-output network connecting industrial sectors in developed economies. We study alternative models of diffusion on networks and we calibrate them using input-output data on real-world inter-sectoral dependencies for several European count…
Paper uses HPCA for better stock correlation modeling.
The paper examines properties of self-affine Sierpiński sponges using metric invariants.
We present a methodology to extract the backbone of complex networks based on the weight and direction of links, as well as on nontopological properties of nodes. We show how the methodology can be applied in general to networks in which mass or energy is flowing along the links. In particular, the procedure enables us…
Model for cross-border markets with limited transmission capacities.
We consider the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on the global stock market before, during, and after the crisis. We generate complex networks from a cross-correlation matrix such as the threshold network (TN) and the minimal spanning tree (MST). In the threshold network, we assign a threshold value by using…
Applying a theorem due to Belopol'ski and Birman, we show that the Laplace-Beltrami operator on 1-forms on endowed with an asymptotically Euclidean metric has absolutely continuous spectrum equal to .
We analyse a multiplex of networks between OECD countries during the decade 2002-2010, which consists of five financial layers, given by foreign direct investment, equity securities, short-term, long-term and total debt securities, and five environmental layers, given by emissions of N O x, P M 10 SO 2, CO 2 equivalent…
The objective of this paper is to measure the degree of home bias (HB) within holdings portfolio and to identify their determining factors. By following literature and an international capital asset pricing model, we have chosen quite a number of susceptible factors that impact HB. This model is, hence, estimated for 2…
A society or country with income equally distributed among its people is truly a fiction! The phenomena of socioeconomic inequalities have been plaguing mankind from times immemorial. We are interested in gaining an insight about the co-evolution of the countries in the inequality space, from a data science perspective…
We study cross-country GDP losses due to financial crises in terms of frequency (number of loss events per period) and severity (loss per occurrence). We perform the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) to estimate a multi-country aggregate GDP loss probability density function and the percentiles associated to extreme eve…
We propose a modified time lag random matrix theory in order to study time lag cross-correlations in multiple time series. We apply the method to 48 world indices, one for each of 48 different countries. We find long-range power-law cross-correlations in the absolute values of returns that quantify risk, and find that …
Study shows credit expansion in mortgage markets influenced U.S. business cycle.
The study analyzes sentiment of European tweets during the pandemic.
The global financial system is highly complex, with cross-border interconnections and interdependencies. In this highly interconnected environment, local financial shocks and events can be easily amplified and turned into global events. This paper analyzes the dependencies among nearly 4,000 stocks from 15 countries. T…
To mitigate potential contagion from future banking crises, the European Commission recently proposed a framework which would provide for the of bank creditors in the event of failure. In this study, we examine this framework retrospectively in the context of failed European banks during the global f…
This paper forecasts renewable energy prospects in South America through cross-border interconnection.
The paper uses RMT to analyze global banking network changes since 2000.
For the purpose of elucidating the correlation among currencies, we analyze daily and high-resolution data of foreign exchange rates. There is strong correlation for pairs of currencies of geographically near countries. We show that there is a time delay of order less than a minute between two currency markets having a…
New method tests Granger non-causality in panel data with cross-sectional dependencies.
In this article, we investigate whether exchange rate risk is priced. We use a multivariate GARCH-in-Mean specification and test alternative conditional international CAPM versions. Our results support strongly the international asset-pricing model that includes exchange rate risk for both developed and emerging stock …
Energy policy in Europe has been driven by the three goals of security of supply, economic competitiveness and environmental sustainability, referred to as the energy trilemma. Although there are clear conflicts within the trilemma, member countries have acted to facilitate a fully integrated European electricity marke…
Improved AI patent classifier measures U.S. and China's AI patenting.