We develop a topology data analysis-based method to detect early signs for critical transitions in financial data. From the time-series of multiple stock prices, we build time-dependent correlation networks, which exhibit topological structures. We compute the persistent homology associated to these structures in order…
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48 results for “critical transitions”
Critical slowing down associated with critical transition and risk of collapse in cryptocurrencyq-fin.ST
The year 2017 saw the rise and fall of the crypto-currency market, followed by high variability in the price of all crypto-currencies. In this work, we study the abrupt transition in crypto-currency residuals, which is associated with the critical transition (the phenomenon of critical slowing down) or the stochastic t…
The paper models market crashes as phase transitions, finding dynamic transitions offer better predictions.
problem Understanding and predicting extreme financial events like market crashes.
method Employing phase transition theory, focusing on endogenous crashes, and comparing DPT, CPT, and SPT.
result Dynamic phase transitions provide more accurate predictions of market crashes compared to critical and stochastic models.
Predicting Critical Transitions in Multiscale Dynamical Systems Using Reservoir Computingphysics.comp-ph
We study the problem of predicting rare critical transition events for a class of slow-fast nonlinear dynamical systems. The state of the system of interest is described by a slow process, whereas a faster process drives its evolution and induces critical transitions. By taking advantage of recent advances in reservoir…
Curiosity-Critic improves world model training by focusing on cumulative prediction error.
problem Training world models with intrinsic rewards that consider cumulative prediction error.
method Curiosity-Critic uses a surrogate reward based on the difference between current and asymptotic prediction errors, estimated online by a co-trained critic.
result Curiosity-Critic outperforms other methods in training speed and final world model accuracy.
We study the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) in the context of critical transitions modelled by fast-slow stochastic dynamical systems. We establish a new link between the dynamical theory of critical transitions with the statistical aspects of the MMD. In particular, we show that a formal approximation of the MMD near …
Ultralow-dimensionality reduction for identifying critical transitions by spatial-temporal PCAstat.ML
A new method identifies critical transitions in high-dimensional data.
problem Challenges in identifying critical transitions in high-dimensional time-series data.
method Spatial-temporal Principal Component Analysis (stPCA)
result Identifies tipping points before critical transitions reliably.
Proves transitivity of a specific class of quadratic polynomials.
problem Transitivity of pure Hurwitz classes of post-critically finite quadratic polynomials.
method Uses mapping classes of the sphere with finitely many marked points.
result Establishes transitivity for pure Hurwitz classes of post-critically finite quadratic polynomials.
Generative diffusion models exhibit phase transitions in statistical mechanics, impacting their performance.
problem Understanding the performance and capabilities of generative diffusion models.
method Reformulating generative diffusion models using statistical mechanics, focusing on phase transitions and symmetry breaking.
result Generative diffusion models undergo second-order phase transitions with mean-field universality, critical instability, and mean-field critical exponents.
New model shows natural language exhibits phase transition similar to physics.
problem Understanding critical properties in natural language models.
method Created a context-sensitive random language model.
result Demonstrated a Berezinskii--Kosterlitz--Thouless phase transition.
Defines crisis transitions in pure exchange economies rigorously.
problem Understanding crises in economic equilibrium models.
method Uses mathematical concepts like branching, envelopes, and intrinsic derivative.
result Establishes criteria to distinguish crises from other equilibria.
Modeling financial markets as gas molecules, the paper predicts phase transitions similar to water and steam.
problem Understanding the dynamics of financial markets through phase transitions.
method Developed a lattice gas model equivalent to the Ising model on a social network, analyzing critical exponents and auto-correlations.
result Financial market dynamics exhibit phase transition-like behavior, with critical exponents analogous to water and steam.
We analyze the time series of four major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple) before the digital market crash at the end of 2017 - beginning 2018. We introduce a methodology that combines topological data analysis with a machine learning technique -- -means clustering -- in order to automatical…
Determination of the critical points for systems of directed percolation class using machine learningcond-mat.stat-mech
Machine learning predicts critical points for directed percolation models.
problem Determining critical points for directed percolation models.
method Supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms (CNN and DBSCAN) were used.
result Machine learning accurately predicts critical points for both models.
TOLD++ improves convergence of diffusion models by critically damping the forward transition matrix.
problem Improving the convergence of Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models.
method Critically damping the Third-Order Langevin Dynamics (TOLD) forward transition matrix using eigen-analysis.
result TOLD++ converges faster than TOLD, verified on toy and real datasets.
Emergence of a finite-size-scaling function in the supervised learning of the Ising phase transitioncond-mat.stat-mech
A neural network model predicts the critical point of the Ising phase transition.
problem Predicting the critical point of the Ising phase transition using supervised learning.
method Proposed a minimal one-free-parameter neural network model to describe the supervised learning problem for the Ising model.
result Just one free parameter is enough to describe the universal finite-size-scaling function in the network output.
We show that for three dimensional gravity with higher genus boundary conditions, if the theory possesses a sufficiently light scalar, there is a second order phase transition where the scalar field condenses. This three dimensional version of the holographic superconducting phase transition occurs even though the pure…
In this paper, we study the sensitivity of the spectral clustering based community detection algorithm subject to a Erdos-Renyi type random noise model. We prove phase transitions in community detectability as a function of the external edge connection probability and the noisy edge presence probability under a general…
Machine learning detects regime shifts in online game-experiments with high accuracy.
problem Detecting regime shifts in online social systems.
method Gradient-boosted decision trees with memory-retaining features.
result Significantly outperforms standard early warning indicators.
We address the problem of necessary conditions and topological obstructions for the existence of robustly transitive maps on surfaces. Concretely, we show that partial hyperbolicity is a necessary condition in order to have robustly transitive endomorphisms with critical points on surfaces, and the only surfaces …
Study on a pinning model with random walk increments, showing convergence to a critical disordered pinning measure.
problem Understanding the critical behavior of a disordered pinning model.
method Analyzing a disordered pinning model induced by a random walk with specific moment conditions, showing convergence to a limiting measure.
result Convergence of point-to-point partition functions to the critical disordered pinning measure in the critical window.
Critical volatility triggers log-normal to power-law transitions in interconnected systems.
problem Understanding the transition from log-normal to power-law distributions in interconnected systems.
method Analyzing an infinite option-on-option chain model, deriving a critical volatility threshold.
result A critical volatility threshold of approximately 250.66% for unconditional cases, dropping to 125.3% with selective survival.
Predicting labels of nodes in a network, such as community memberships or demographic variables, is an important problem with applications in social and biological networks. A recently-discovered phase transition puts fundamental limits on the accuracy of these predictions if we have access only to the network topology…
CNMs detect tipping points in complex systems using causal network markers.
problem Identifying tipping points ahead of critical transitions in complex systems.
method Introducing CNMs that incorporate causality indicators to detect tipping points.
result CNMs show higher predictive power and accuracy than traditional DNB indicators.
Study on complexity of random polynomials with deterministic spikes, identifying phase transitions.
problem Complexity of random Gaussian polynomials with deterministic spikes on a sphere.
method Variational formulas, Kac-Rice formula, determinant asymptotics of finite-rank perturbation of Gaussian Wigner matrices.
result Identification of a topological phase transition in the complexity function.
Continuous phase transitions identified in Doi-Onsager, noisy transformer, and Hegselmann-Krause models.
problem Phase transitions in multimodal models and their properties.
method Sharp coercivity estimate and constrained Lebedev--Milin inequality.
result Continuous phase transitions at critical coupling strengths for Doi-Onsager, noisy transformer, and Hegselmann-Krause models.
Machine learning detects tipping points in complex systems.
problem Detecting abrupt shifts in complex dynamical systems.
method Equilibrium-informed neural networks (EINNs) trained on candidate equilibrium states.
result EINNs can identify critical thresholds in nonlinear systems.
High-dimensional models become unstable when sample size falls below a critical level, leading to a phase transition.
problem Instability in high-dimensional learning models when sample size is insufficient.
method Proved the necessity of a Fisher eigenvalue threshold for stability, introduced Fisher floor for verification.
result A sharp phase transition between reliable concentration and inevitable failure in high-dimensional learning.
A simple model explains phase transition in large language models.
problem Understanding the emergence of abilities in large language models.
method Modeling LLM as a sequence-to-sequence random function and using a list decoder.
result A critical threshold exists where the expected number of erroneous sequences grows exponentially.
Study of correlated Wigner matrices with BBP transitions.
problem Understanding spectral transitions in correlated Wigner matrices.
method Analyzes a Wigner-type matrix with row/column correlations, decomposes into bulk and outliers, and uses integral operators to model transitions.
result Correlated Wigner matrices exhibit multiple BBP transitions at critical points.
We derive the exact solution of a one-dimensional Markov functional model with log-normally distributed interest rates in discrete time. The model is shown to have two distinct limiting states, corresponding to small and asymptotically large volatilities, respectively. These volatility regimes are separated by a phase …
We study the feasibility and noise sensitivity of portfolio optimization under some downside risk measures (Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and semivariance) when they are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution on a finite sample of asset returns. We find that the existence of the optimum is a probabilistic …
We fill a void in merging empirical and phenomenological characterisation of the dynamical phase transitions in complex systems by identifying three of them on real-life financial markets. We extract and interpret the empirical, numerical, and semi-analytical evidences for the existence of these phase transitions, by c…
Tyler's M-estimator's phase transition at DS-SNR = 1 is resolved.
problem Robust Subspace Recovery
method Tyler's M-estimator
result TME converges exactly to the true subspace for DS-SNR >= 1 under a new stability condition.
The study of the critical dynamics in complex systems is always interesting yet challenging. Here, we choose financial market as an example of a complex system, and do a comparative analyses of two stock markets - the S&P 500 (USA) and Nikkei 225 (JPN). Our analyses are based on the evolution of crosscorrelation struct…
WRAAC uses Wasserstein distance for robust reinforcement learning.
problem Lack of quantified robustness to system dynamics in existing reinforcement learning algorithms.
method Leverages Wasserstein distance to connect state disturbance to transition kernel disturbance, reducing infinite-dimensional optimization to a finite-dimensional problem.
result Designs a novel algorithm, WRAAC, that achieves robust reinforcement learning.
This study investigates self-organizing dynamics in a stochastic exponential DAM model using Temporal Complexity.
problem Understanding self-organizing behavior in artificial neural systems.
method Investigation of a stochastic exponential DAM model through Temporal Complexity analysis.
result The model exhibits regimes of complex intermittency with nontrivial temporal correlations and scale-free behavior.
The paper studies dynamical systems with evolving geometric structure using numerical methods.
problem Qualitative behavior of ODEs with varying geometric structure.
method Fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme for numerical analysis.
result Qualitative transitions in system dynamics as rotation parameter varies.
TDA detects financial bubbles through early warning signals.
problem Detecting financial bubbles early.
method Using Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model to fit financial time series data.
result TDA generates early warning signals when LPPLS model fits the data.
This paper identifies and estimates the label noise transition matrix without ground truth labels.
problem Learning with noisy labels and identifying the noise transition matrix.
method Building on Kruskal's identifiability results, the paper characterizes the identifiability of the label noise transition matrix for the generic case at the instance level.
result The necessity of multiple noisy labels in identifying the noise transition matrix for the generic case at the instance level.
We discuss a simple model based on the Minority Game which reproduces the main stylized facts of anomalous fluctuations in finance. We present the analytic solution of the model in the thermodynamic limit and show that stylized facts arise only close to a line of critical points with non-trivial properties. By a simple…
Catapult phase in neural nets shows exponential loss growth before quick decrease.
problem Understanding phase transitions in neural networks during training.
method Analyzing weight norm and loss behavior for super-critical learning rates.
result Proven existence of catapult phase in quadratic models and two-layer nets.
Deep neural networks near edge of chaos show universal scaling laws.
problem Understanding the behavior of deep neural networks near critical points.
method Analogy to absorbing phase transitions in statistical mechanics, deterministic propagation dynamics, mean-field and directed percolation universality classes.
result Deep neural networks exhibit universal scaling laws near the edge of chaos.
New framework analyzes SGD dynamics in large samples and dimensions.
problem Analyzing stochastic gradient descent in large-scale settings.
method Inspired by random matrix theory, new framework for fixed stepsize and finite sum settings.
result SGD dynamics become deterministic in the large sample and dimensional limit, governed by a Volterra integral equation.
HOFLON automates process start-ups and grade-changes using offline RL and online optimization.
problem Manual operation of start-ups and grade-changes by experts is declining, leaving plant owners without the necessary tacit know-how.
method HOFLON combines offline RL to learn a latent manifold and long-horizon Q-critic, and online optimization to maximize Q-critic while penalizing deviations and excessive variable changes.
result HOFLON outperforms standard offline RL in industrial case studies, delivering better cumulative rewards than historical data.
Multilayer graphs are commonly used for representing different relations between entities and handling heterogeneous data processing tasks. New challenges arise in multilayer graph clustering for assigning clusters to a common multilayer node set and for combining information from each layer. This paper presents a theo…
Gradient flow in phase retrieval escapes spurious minima with high probability.
problem Understanding gradient-based optimization in high-dimensional non-convex functions.
method Analytical and numerical study of gradient dynamics in phase retrieval.
result Gradient flow avoids spurious minima by drifting along unstable directions.
Study proposes a new early-warning framework for high-dimensional complex systems.
problem Predicting critical transitions in complex systems like epileptic seizures.
method Integrates manifold learning with stochastic dynamical system modeling, using Schrödinger bridge theory.
result Demonstrates higher sensitivity and robustness in epilepsy prediction.