Detects the backbone of Japanese credit market relationships over 30 years.
problem Understanding the structure of credit relationships in the Japanese market.
method Adapting a method for weighted networks to detect a backbone, validating against a null hypothesis of uniform diversification.
result Identifies changes in network size, credit fraction, and bank/firm attributes over time.
Study uses geometric algebra to analyze credit cycles, revealing dangerous feedback loops.
problem Understanding and predicting dangerous feedback loops in credit cycles.
method Represent economic states as multi-vectors in Clifford algebra, focusing on bivector elements for rotational coupling.
result Geometric relationship between unemployment and credit contraction shifts from simple correlation to dangerous rotational dynamics during crises.
We present a new approach to understanding credit relationships between commercial banks and quoted firms, and with this approach, examine the temporal change in the structure of the Japanese credit network from 1980 to 2005. At each year, the credit network is regarded as a weighted bipartite graph where edges corresp…
The article presents calculations that prove practical importance of the earlier derived theoretical relationship between the interest rate on the interbank credit market, volume of investment and the quantity of securities tradable on the stock exchange.
The credit crisis of 2007 and 2008 has thrown much focus on the models used to price mortgage backed securities. Many institutions have relied heavily on the credit ratings provided by credit agency. The relationships between management of credit agencies and debt issuers may have resulted in conflict of interest when …
We give a comprehensive review of credit term structure modeling methodologies. The conventional approach to modeling credit term structure is summarized and shown to be equivalent to a particular type of the reduced form credit risk model, the fractional recovery of market value approach. We argue that the corporate p…
We present an analysis of the credit market of Japan. The analysis is performed by investigating the bipartite network of banks and firms which is obtained by setting a link between a bank and a firm when a credit relationship is present in a given time window. In our investigation we focus on a community detection alg…
Paper proposes a method to evaluate SME credit risk using meta paths.
problem Evaluate credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises with limited data.
method Exploits the representative power of information networks and meta paths to infer SME financial status.
result Meta path feature effectively identifies SMEs with credit risks.
We model a network economy with three sectors: downstream firms, upstream firms, and banks. Agents are linked by productive and credit relationships so that the behavior of one agent influences the behavior of the others through network connections. Credit interlinkages among agents are a source of bankruptcy diffusion…
Complex network theory models China's credit system to control systemic risk.
problem Insufficient understanding of China's credit network structure during financial crises.
method Constructed bipartite financial institution-firm network and analyzed its typological properties.
result Credit network structure can amplify local risks to the whole economy.
Neural network uses local credit assignment to learn distant cause-effect relationships.
problem Learning distant cause-effect relationships in sequential data.
method Sparse coding in a recurrent neural network memory with local and immediate credit assignment.
result Network can predict partially-observable higher-order sequences and navigate mazes.
Study finds economic cycle affects bank loan recovery rates.
problem Understanding how economic conditions impact bank loan recovery rates.
method Used a two-state Markov switching mechanism to model credit cycle states and analyze recovery rates.
result Recovery rates and their determinants differ between good and bad economic times.
The paper introduces ESE scores for farmers to assess climate change risks.
problem Assessing climate change risks in individual farmers' credit evaluations.
method Integrating ESG variables into joint liability models and using a mean-variance utility function.
result Optimal group sizes and individual-ESE score relationships under various climatic conditions.
Unified valuation theory for credit risk, defaults, and funding costs.
problem Valuation under credit risk, defaults, and funding costs.
method Unified valuation theory expanding replication approach to incorporate credit risk, defaults, and funding costs.
result Clarifies the relationship between the adjusted cash flows approach and the replication approach.
Study uses generative models to assess credit risk and determine loan sizes in e-commerce supply chain finance.
problem Credit risk assessment and loan size determination for small- and medium-sized sellers in e-commerce supply chain finance.
method Proposes a unified framework using Quantile-Regression-based Generative Metamodeling (QRGMM) integrated with Deep Factorization Machines (DeepFM) to capture complex covariate interactions in e-commerce sales data.
result Validates the model's efficacy for credit risk assessment and loan size determination on synthetic and real-world data.
Paper models transition risk using jump-diffusion model to price credit swaps.
problem Capturing transition risk in financial markets.
method Calibrated jump-diffusion model to CDS term structure, using quantile regression.
result Jump-diffusion model captures transition risk, jumps represent green policies.
Unified framework models credit cycles and systemic risk.
problem Inadequate classical models for bubbles, crises, and credit cycles.
method Marshall-Walras price formation process and mathematical formalism.
result Unified framework reflects different economic states and systemic risk.
Study finds key subgraphs in Chinese guarantee networks.
problem Understanding the structure of Chinese guarantee networks.
method Analysis of 2- and 3-node subgraphs considering financial heterogeneity.
result Mutual, 2-out-stars, and triangle sub-patterns are common motifs.
This study examines how supplier and customer networks affect credit spreads.
problem Current models assume all networks are the same and ignore partner credit risk.
method Supply-chain data from Bloomberg analyzed to control for credit risk and size.
result Well diversified customer networks lower CDS spreads, while stable partners increase them.
VAE clusters customer segments for better credit scoring.
problem Improving credit scoring accuracy in retail banking.
method Variational Autoencoder (VAE) with Weight of Evidence (WoE) transformation.
result Clusters with different risk profiles can improve credit scoring.
The role of credit rating agencies has been under severe scrutiny after the subprime crisis. In this paper we explore the relationship between credit ratings and informational efficiency of a sample of thirty nine corporate bonds of US oil and energy companies from April 2008 to November 2012. For that purpose, we use …
Paper examines constraints on cryptocurrency networks to improve liquidity and capital costs.
problem Improving liquidity in cryptocurrency networks with limited capital deposits.
method Introduces constraints to bound loss in default scenarios and simplifies network structure.
result Achieves optimal tradeoff between liquidity and capital costs in payment networks.
This study analyzes how carbon pricing affects credit risk measures in a portfolio.
problem Impact of carbon pricing on credit risk measures in a portfolio.
method Adapted stochastic multisectoral model to account for GHG emissions costs and carbon prices.
result Carbon pricing distorts firm value distributions, increases banking fees, and reduces profitability.
Meta-learning framework for credit risk assessment of SMEs, aligning financial statement dates with evaluation dates.
problem Temporal misalignment of credit scoring models leading to bias and inconsistent predictions.
method Two-step temporal decomposition: static model for annual PDs, dynamic model for monthly PDs; stacking architecture to aggregate multiple models.
result Framework effectively captures credit risk evolution over time, improving temporal consistency and predictive stability.
Study shows credit expansion in mortgage markets influenced U.S. business cycle.
problem Lack of causal evidence in cross-country business cycle studies.
method Unique research design combining cross-metropolitan U.S. data.
result Credit expansion caused stronger booms and busts in house-related industries.
Paper finds political networks reduce bond issuance costs in China.
problem The financial value of within-government political networks in China.
method Using municipal leaders' working experience to measure political networks, the study examines the effect on bond issuance yield spreads.
result Political networks reduce bond issuance yield spreads by improving issuer credit ratings, especially in less developed financial markets.
Graph neural networks improve SME credit risk assessment.
problem Improving credit risk assessment for small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
method Graph neural networks were used to model the relationships between financial indicators of enterprises, creating a graph structure and embedding representations for credit risk prediction.
result The proposed model accurately predicts enterprise credit levels, demonstrating robustness and effectiveness.
The paper shows how variable discretization and cost-sensitive logistic regression improve credit scoring models on imbalanced data.
problem Bias in classification models on imbalanced datasets.
method Variable discretization and cost-sensitive logistic regression.
result Improves model performance on imbalanced credit scoring data and other domains.
We present a detailed analysis of interest rate derivatives valuation under credit risk and collateral modeling. We show how the credit and collateral extended valuation framework in Pallavicini et al (2011), and the related collateralized valuation measure, can be helpful in defining the key market rates underlying th…
Modeling interest rates for multiple tenors considering rollover risk.
problem Tackling the risk of borrowing at a shorter tenor and lending at a longer tenor.
method Constructing a stochastic model framework with endogenous frequency basis, incorporating credit and liquidity risks.
result The model can be calibrated to market data and used for pricing interest rate derivatives.
New models reduce bias in machine learning for credit risk.
problem Bias in machine learning models for credit risk analysis.
method Sum Product Networks (SPNs) to identify and remove independent variables.
result Significant reduction in disparate treatment of male and female applicants.
Shapley Flow interprets model predictions using a graph-based approach to feature importance.
problem Existing feature importance methods ignore or hide feature dependencies.
method Shapley Flow considers the entire causal graph and assigns credit to edges.
result Shapley Flow provides a deeper, graph-based view of feature importance.
The study calculates securities lending haircuts and indemnification costs.
problem Managing borrower default risk in securities markets.
method Repo haircut model applied to securities lending transactions; quantifies haircuts and indemnification costs.
result Computed borrower-dependent haircuts and indemnification costs for US Treasuries and equities.
The study examines how climate risk influences sovereign debt default decisions.
problem The relationship between climate risk and sovereign debt default decisions.
method Calibration of a model to analyze the credit spreads of sovereign bonds and the impact of climate vulnerability on bond spreads.
result Climate risk does not significantly influence the decision to default on sovereign debt.
We investigate financial market correlations using random matrix theory and principal component analysis. We use random matrix theory to demonstrate that correlation matrices of asset price changes contain structure that is incompatible with uncorrelated random price changes. We then identify the principal components o…
Study shows how to better estimate credit provisions and economic capital.
problem Estimating credit provisions and economic capital accurately.
method Using supermodularity ordering properties and elliptically distributed latent factors.
result Convex risk measures of credit losses are nondecreasing w.r.t. various covariances.
Study uses JLS model to predict financial market reactions to Brexit/Bremain referendum.
problem Detecting financial market reactions to Brexit/Bremain referendum.
method Applied Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model with Genetic Algorithms for calibration.
result Equity and currency markets do not expect crashes, while rates, credit, and real estate markets show instability.
Survey examines types of systemic risk in financial networks.
problem Understanding systemic risk in financial networks.
method Taxonomy of systemic risk types and regulatory measures.
result Different types of systemic risk identified.
Study shows how macroprudential policies affect credit growth in Israel, especially in housing and business sectors.
problem Impact of macroprudential policies on credit growth in Israel.
method Bank-level panel data analysis for Israel, 2004-2019; interaction of monetary and macroprudential policies.
result Accommodative monetary policy interacts with macroprudential policies to increase total credit growth.
Unified view on selective credit assignment for reinforcement learning.
problem Efficient credit assignment in reinforcement learning.
method Unified temporal-difference algorithms with selective weightings.
result New algorithms for backward credit assignment and off-policy learning.
We apply Geometric Arbitrage Theory to obtain results in mathematical finance for credit markets, which do not need stochastic differential geometry in their formulation. We obtain closed form equations involving default intensities and loss given defaults characterizing the no-free-lunch-with-vanishing-risk condition …
This paper develops a machine learning model to assess credit risk in UAE commercial banks.
problem Lack of precision in conventional credit rating tools for accurate credit risk prediction.
method Constructs a credit risk assessment model using Linear Discriminant Analysis.
result Demonstrates improved accuracy in predicting good and bad creditors compared to conventional methods.
Paper analyzes pricing model for bonds with early redemption.
problem Analyzing pricing of bonds with early redemption features.
method Structural approach for mathematical modeling of bond prices.
result Existence and uniqueness of default and early redemption boundaries proved.
Study evaluates SHAP for credit card default model consistency.
problem Model transparency and fairness in credit card default prediction models.
method Evaluates SHAP stability in credit card default prediction models via a case study.
result SHAP consistency is related to variable importance level.
Large corporate credit models may be adapted for small business risk assessment.
problem Limited data and lack of credit analysts for small businesses.
method Adapting large corporate credit risk models for small businesses.
result Adapted models can predict small business credit risk effectively.
Credit scores misclassify borrowers, especially minorities, leading to inequitable access.
problem Misclassification of borrowers by credit scores, particularly minorities.
method Benchmarked a widely used credit score against a machine learning model.
result Machine learning model improves predictive accuracy for low-quality data, leading to more equitable access.
This study models credit default swap premiums with a stochastic recovery rate.
problem Analyzing credit default swap premiums with varying recovery rates.
method Develops a model using stochastic recovery rates.
result Models credit default swap premiums effectively with a stochastic recovery rate.
Extracts credit-relevant information from earnings calls.
problem Investors do not fully internalize credit-relevant information from earnings calls.
method Develops a novel technique to extract credit-relevant information from earnings call text.
result The extracted information forecasts future credit spread changes and firm profitability.