Study shows how to better estimate credit provisions and economic capital.
problem Estimating credit provisions and economic capital accurately.
method Using supermodularity ordering properties and elliptically distributed latent factors.
result Convex risk measures of credit losses are nondecreasing w.r.t. various covariances.
Methodology measures financial impacts using existing credit loss infrastructure.
problem Measuring the impact of financial scenarios on expected credit losses.
method Captures scenario effects through changes in default probabilities; uses existing provisioning infrastructure.
result Methodology validated through standardized climate scenario exercise in Canada and Quebec.
Paper analyzes pricing model for bonds with early redemption.
problem Analyzing pricing of bonds with early redemption features.
method Structural approach for mathematical modeling of bond prices.
result Existence and uniqueness of default and early redemption boundaries proved.
New model predicts credit spreads using stochastic CIR++ intensities.
problem Lack of continuous stochastic credit spread models and limited term structure models.
method Stochastic CIR++ model for default intensities in risk-neutral space.
result Model produces realistic credit spread term structure curves and consistent diffusion over time.
Credit risk management in Italy is characterized, in the period June 2008 to June 2012, by frequent (frequency=0.5 cycles per year) and intense (peak amplitude: mean=39.2 billion Euros, s.e.=2.83 billion Euros) quarterly contractions and expansions around the mean (915.4 billion Euros, s.e.=3.59 billion Euros) of the n…
Develops a PD estimation model using Lévy-driven processes for credit risk.
problem Estimating Probability of Default under new IFRS 9 regulations.
method Lévy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with multiple latent variables, Integral Equation and PIDE formulation.
result Existence of weak and strong solutions for PD function, numerical schemes developed.
This study analyzes how carbon pricing affects credit risk measures in a portfolio.
problem Impact of carbon pricing on credit risk measures in a portfolio.
method Adapted stochastic multisectoral model to account for GHG emissions costs and carbon prices.
result Carbon pricing distorts firm value distributions, increases banking fees, and reduces profitability.
Study examines credit risk's impact on Vietnamese banks' financial performance.
problem Impact of credit risk on commercial banks' financial performance in Vietnam.
method Dynamic Difference Generalized Method of Moments (dynamic Difference GMM) approach to address autocorrelation, non-constant variance, and endogeneity issues.
result ROE and NIM persist from one year to the next, while NPLR negatively affects ROA and ROE.
Study analyzes factors affecting profits in crypto liquidity provision.
problem Liquidity providers lack guidance for developing profitable strategies.
method Developed a measurement model based on impermanent loss to analyze key parameters.
result Uncovered influences of key parameters on LPs' profits.
After the release of the final accounting standards for impairment in July 2014 by the IASB, banks will face the next significant methodological challenge after Basel 2. In this paper, first methodological thoughts are presented, and ways how to approach underlying questions are proposed. It starts with a detailed disc…
Study uses RL to optimize credit card limits, achieving better results than traditional methods.
problem Optimizing credit card limit adjustments in banking.
method Reinforcement learning with offline learning strategy.
result Double Q-learning agent outperforms other strategies in generating optimal policy.
The dependency structure of credit risk parameters is a key driver for capital consumption and receives regulatory and scientific attention. The impact of parameter imperfections on the quality of expected loss (EL) in the sense of a fair, unbiased estimate of risk expenses however is barely covered. So far there are n…
Optimizes liquidity provision in decentralized exchanges with utility indifference market makers.
problem Impermanent loss in decentralized exchanges without transaction fees.
method Mathematical formulation of liquidity provision, focusing on utility indifference market makers.
result No-arbitrage conditions and optimal arbitrage strategies are established.
Paper predicts international trade flows using machine learning and factorization models.
problem Predicting international bilateral trade flows with PTAs.
method Two-stage approach combining SHAP Explainer and Factorization Machine models.
result Enhanced predictive accuracy and deeper insights into trade dynamics.
Optimizes liquidity provision intervals for profitable AMM participation.
problem Financial losses from poor liquidity provision intervals and reallocation costs.
method Developed a tractable stochastic optimization problem.
result Computes optimal liquidity provision intervals for profitable liquidity concentration.
We calculate the dynamics of tax evasion within a multi-agent econophysics model which is adopted from the theory of magnetism and previously has been shown to capture the main characteristics from agent-based based models which build on the standard Allingham and Sandmo approach. In particular, we implement a feedback…
Paper optimizes liquidity provision in decentralized finance markets.
problem Strategic LPs face predictable losses and concentration risk in CL pools.
method Derive optimal liquidity provision strategy based on fees, PL, and concentration risk.
result Optimal strategy increases fee revenue and profit from marginal rate changes.
Tick-by-tick liquidity provision aims to maximize fees and reserves.
problem Maximizing fees and reserves in concentrated liquidity.
method Convex optimization for tick-level liquidity provision.
result Concentrating liquidity around current price is not always best.
Geopolitical and geoeconomic shocks affect sovereign risk differently, with distinct transmission channels.
problem Understanding how geopolitical and geoeconomic shocks impact sovereign credit risk.
method Daily panel data of 42 economies over 2018-2025; semistructural framework; Shapley-Taylor decomposition; machine learning predictions; placebo and sign-restricted SVAR evidence.
result Geopolitical shocks primarily increase sovereign credit spreads through direct repricing, while geoeconomic shocks mainly affect spreads through financial conditions and policy uncertainty.
The article provides formulas to hedge impermanent loss in decentralized markets.
problem Impermanent loss in concentrated liquidity provision in decentralized markets.
method Analytical characterizations and static replication formulas using European calls or puts.
result Static replication formulas accurately hedge impermanent loss.
Model analyzes debt recycling strategies under various fiscal regimes and jurisdictions.
problem Understanding debt recycling dynamics and their impact on repayment times and equity growth.
method Developed a calibrated model incorporating mortgage interest rates, borrowing costs, and tax shields.
result Introducing positive interest rates without tax shields contracts success regions and lengthens repayment times, but tax shields partially reverse these effects.
This paper uses DRL to optimize liquidity in DeFi protocols, making markets more accessible.
problem Optimizing liquidity provisioning in decentralized finance protocols.
method Modeling liquidity provisioning as an MDP, training an agent with PPO to dynamically adjust positions.
result DRL-based strategy outperforms traditional heuristics in fee maximization and impermanent loss mitigation.
Study liquidity provision in decentralized exchanges considering risk aversion and replication costs.
problem Economic viability of liquidity provision in decentralized exchanges (DEXs).
method Formulated strategic interactions as a sequential game with risk-averse LP, traders, and arbitrageurs.
result DEX liquidity depth is crucial for risk management, influenced by risk aversion and replication costs.
Study liquidity provision with exogenous competition using a reference market maker.
problem Liquidity provision in the presence of exogenous competition.
method Model a reference market maker who optimizes posted depths, competing market makers using a rule of thumb.
result Model admits approximate closed-form solution for a linear-quadratic goal functional.
Forward hedging reshapes incentive provision in firms.
problem How does forward hedging affect incentive provision in firms?
method We consider a CARA framework to jointly characterize optimal production, compensation, and static hedging in equilibrium.
result Delegation and external hedging are partial substitutes, and delegation can increase firm value even when the agent is more risk averse.
Sunshine trading theory predicts lower execution costs and liquidity provision through explicit preannouncements, but evidence is scarce in traditional markets.
problem Adverse selection on liquidity provision
method Reconstructing metaorders and comparing them with visible TWAP executions
result Visible TWAPs face lower execution costs and leave a smaller permanent price impact compared to hidden metaorders.
Study on liquidity providers' performance in decentralized exchanges.
problem Unclear profitability of liquidity providers in decentralized exchanges.
method Reconstructing LP PnL dynamics from on-chain events, introducing a new metric.
result Only about one out of six LPs avoids losses, suggesting open questions about LP participation motives.
Pricing Chinese convertible bonds using Monte Carlo simulation and dynamic programming.
problem Pricing Chinese convertible bonds accurately.
method Monte Carlo simulation and dynamic programming with regression and backward induction.
result An underpriced strategy significantly outperforms benchmarks.
Study scaling of optimal solutions for reliability constraints in resource provisioning.
problem Achieving high reliability in resource provisioning under stringent requirements.
method Chance-constrained optimization, distributionally robust optimization, f-divergence balls, line search.
result Correct scaling properties of optimal decisions are preserved by using appropriate f-divergence balls, leading to conservative yet near-optimal solutions.
Traditional market makers are losing their importance as automated systems have largely assumed the role of liquidity provision in markets. We update the model of Glosten and Milgrom (1985) to analyze this new world: we add multiple securities and introduce an automated market maker who uses the relationships between s…
The paper develops a new framework for pricing and hedging liquidity in crypto markets.
problem Arbitrage and risk management in crypto market making.
method Developed a new mathematical framework using a coordinate system defined by price and intrinsic liquidity.
result Established a linear dependence of asset reserves and value functions on intrinsic liquidity, facilitating arbitrage-free pricing and delta hedging.
CFM fee income is insufficient to hedge market risk, study finds.
problem Inefficiency of CFM fee income in hedging market risk.
method Analysis through continuous-time financial mathematics and multi-agent simulations.
result Fee income is insufficient to compensate for market risk.
Exchange improves liquidity by using different bid and ask tick sizes.
problem Improving liquidity quality in financial markets.
method Model with uncertainty zones to analyze bid and ask side-specific tick sizes.
result Suitable side-specific tick sizes enhance liquidity provision.
This paper improves capital efficiency in AMM protocols with leverage.
problem Improving capital efficiency in Automated Market Makers (AMM).
method Formalizes leveraged liquidity provisioning, defines margin level, assets, and debt.
result Leveraged liquidity positions are safe and possess desirable properties.
Enhances crypto-asset AMM with deep learning for better liquidity and efficiency.
problem Reduced slippage and improved liquidity in decentralized finance.
method Deep reinforcement learning for predicting market equilibrium and optimizing liquidity.
result Improved capital efficiency and reduced slippage for crypto-asset traders.
Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) innovations are being introduced at such a rapid pace that model owners and evaluators are hard-pressed analyzing and studying them. This is exacerbated by the complicated procedures for evaluation. The lack of standard systems and efficient techniques for specifying and pro…
Replicates and improves Uniswap V3 model using DDQN and Mamba.
problem Improving liquidity provision in Uniswap V3 with reinforcement learning.
method Combines DDQN with Mamba and introduces a new reward function.
result Shows stronger theoretical support and better performance than original model.
Study shows how macroprudential policies affect credit growth in Israel, especially in housing and business sectors.
problem Impact of macroprudential policies on credit growth in Israel.
method Bank-level panel data analysis for Israel, 2004-2019; interaction of monetary and macroprudential policies.
result Accommodative monetary policy interacts with macroprudential policies to increase total credit growth.
Novel method reconstructs liquidity data for CLMMs, optimizing dynamic liquidity strategies.
problem Challenges in evaluating and optimizing CLMMs due to lack of historical liquidity data.
method Reconstructs historical liquidity states from swap transaction data using machine learning.
result Identifies outperformance of dynamic liquidity strategies over uniform allocation benchmarks.
Unified view on selective credit assignment for reinforcement learning.
problem Efficient credit assignment in reinforcement learning.
method Unified temporal-difference algorithms with selective weightings.
result New algorithms for backward credit assignment and off-policy learning.
We apply Geometric Arbitrage Theory to obtain results in mathematical finance for credit markets, which do not need stochastic differential geometry in their formulation. We obtain closed form equations involving default intensities and loss given defaults characterizing the no-free-lunch-with-vanishing-risk condition …
This paper develops a machine learning model to assess credit risk in UAE commercial banks.
problem Lack of precision in conventional credit rating tools for accurate credit risk prediction.
method Constructs a credit risk assessment model using Linear Discriminant Analysis.
result Demonstrates improved accuracy in predicting good and bad creditors compared to conventional methods.
Study evaluates SHAP for credit card default model consistency.
problem Model transparency and fairness in credit card default prediction models.
method Evaluates SHAP stability in credit card default prediction models via a case study.
result SHAP consistency is related to variable importance level.
Financial exchanges provide incentives for limit order book (LOB) liquidity provision to certain market participants, termed designated market makers or designated sponsors. While quoting requirements typically enforce the activity of these participants for a certain portion of the day, we argue that liquidity demand t…
Large corporate credit models may be adapted for small business risk assessment.
problem Limited data and lack of credit analysts for small businesses.
method Adapting large corporate credit risk models for small businesses.
result Adapted models can predict small business credit risk effectively.
Credit scores misclassify borrowers, especially minorities, leading to inequitable access.
problem Misclassification of borrowers by credit scores, particularly minorities.
method Benchmarked a widely used credit score against a machine learning model.
result Machine learning model improves predictive accuracy for low-quality data, leading to more equitable access.
Unified methods for hedging impermanent loss in decentralized exchanges.
problem Hedging impermanent loss in liquidity provision at decentralized exchanges.
method Static and dynamic approaches using arbitrage-based methods for valuation and risk management.
result Unified valuation and hedging formulas for IL protection claims.
Extracts credit-relevant information from earnings calls.
problem Investors do not fully internalize credit-relevant information from earnings calls.
method Develops a novel technique to extract credit-relevant information from earnings call text.
result The extracted information forecasts future credit spread changes and firm profitability.