NetDP predicts loan defaults using network data, addressing cold-start issues.
problem Cold-start problem in default prediction for new users.
method Combines unsupervised and supervised network representations, using parameter-server for scalability.
result Effectiveness in cold-start problem, especially for new users.
Bayesian and simulation methods predict credit default probabilities.
problem Assessing credit risk in large customer portfolios.
method Two-phase approach: Bayesian estimation followed by Monte Carlo simulations.
result Estimation of true default rates through simulations.
This paper proposes a deep learning model combining CNN and Transformer for improved credit default prediction.
problem Traditional machine learning models struggle with complex financial data and risk patterns.
method Combines CNN for local feature extraction and Transformer for global dependency modeling.
result The CNN+Transformer model outperforms traditional models in accuracy, AUC, and KS value.
Paper proposes a framework for precise daily default risk prediction of Chinese credit bonds.
problem Inadequate and inaccurate bond information disclosure creates risk of default for investors.
method Framework includes summarizing factors impacting defaults, constructing a risk index system, and using ConvLSTM neural network for prediction.
result The model provides more responsive and accurate daily default risk predictions than authoritative ratings.
The paper analyzes Lending Club's loan applicants to predict default risk.
problem Predicting default risk in loan applicants of Lending Club.
method Exploratory data analysis and machine learning (Logistic Regression, Random Forest) were used.
result A credit derivative based on Credit Default Swap was designed to hedge default risk.
Paper simplifies default process modeling and credit valuation.
problem Modeling and pricing derivative securities with credit risk.
method Integrates default process, probability, and correlation into a unified framework.
result Risky valuation is Martingale in the proposed model.
KACDP model improves credit default prediction with enhanced interpretability.
problem Insufficient interpretability and limited performance in credit default prediction.
method Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) for handling complex multi-dimensional data.
result KACDP model outperforms mainstream models in performance metrics.
Study evaluates SHAP for credit card default model consistency.
problem Model transparency and fairness in credit card default prediction models.
method Evaluates SHAP stability in credit card default prediction models via a case study.
result SHAP consistency is related to variable importance level.
Study optimizes classifiers for credit card mail campaigns and default prediction.
problem Optimizing classifiers for credit card mail campaigns and default prediction.
method Three distinct models: response, risk, and response-risk. Optimized various performance metrics.
result Random Forest classifier achieves highest accuracy (83.2%) in multi-class response-risk model.
Study integrates climate and text data to improve credit default prediction.
problem Improving credit risk assessment for mSEs with limited financial histories.
method Multimodal framework using LSTM, GRU, and transformer models.
result Integration of multiple data modalities improves credit default prediction.
This paper builds a machine learning model to predict credit defaults for unsecured lending.
problem High credit defaults and delinquency rates in unsecured lending due to imbalanced data.
method Employing machine learning techniques, particularly SMOTE for imbalanced data, and evaluating models like LGBM Classifier.
result LGBM Classifier model outperforms other models in predicting credit defaults.
The study develops a machine learning system for credit scoring and default prediction.
problem Developing a robust credit rating and default prediction system.
method Combines NLP, AE, GBM, DE, and SHAP/LIME for model interpretability.
result Obtained excellent out-of-sample performance in credit rating and default prediction.
Paper evaluates different models for predicting credit default swap volatility.
problem Predicting the Implied Volatility of credit default swaps.
method SVM, Gradient Boosting, and Attention-GRU Hybrid model.
result Identifies strengths in classical and SOTA machine learning methods.
Study predicts firm defaults using machine learning on Italian credit data.
problem Predicting firm defaults to inform bank lending policies.
method Used large granular credit data from Italian Central Credit Register, combined with public balance sheet data, and applied ensemble techniques and random forest models.
result Ensemble techniques and random forest provide the best results for predicting firm defaults.
Study uses AI to refine loan assessments, improving credit default predictions.
problem Improving credit default prediction accuracy using AI-refined text.
method Comparative analysis of human-written and AI-refined loan assessments using deep learning techniques.
result AI-refined texts significantly enhance credit default predictions, especially when combined with structured data.
Workflow improves credit default prediction using machine learning.
problem Assessing creditworthiness and risk management in lending.
method Data preprocessing with Weight of Evidence, ensemble learning, and hyperparameter optimization.
result Enhanced accuracy in predicting credit default.
Model predicts default risk based on company's financial forecasts and credit conditions.
problem Estimating the risk of a company defaulting on its financial obligations.
method Developed an equilibrium model linking interest rates to corporate performance and credit supply.
result Estimates idiosyncratic default risk and provides forward-looking probability of default (PD).
We obtain an explicit formula for the bilateral counterparty valuation adjustment of a credit default swaps portfolio referencing an asymptotically large number of entities. We perform the analysis under a doubly stochastic intensity framework, allowing for default correlation through a common jump process. The key ins…
Deep Evidence Regression improves credit risk prediction uncertainty.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in credit risk predictions.
method Applying Deep Evidence Regression to credit risk settings.
result Demonstrated improved prediction of Loss Given Default.
Credit risk modelling is an integral part of the global financial system. While there has been great attention paid to neural network models for credit default prediction, such models often lack the required interpretation mechanisms and measures of the uncertainty around their predictions. This work develops and compa…
This paper compares ML algorithms for PD prediction, finding XGBoost to be the most effective.
problem Predicting the probability of default in loan portfolios.
method Comparison of five ML algorithms (Random Forests, Decision Trees, XGBoost, Gradient Boosting, AdaBoost) with logistic regression.
result XGBoost outperforms other ML algorithms for PD prediction.
Meta-learning framework for credit risk assessment of SMEs, aligning financial statement dates with evaluation dates.
problem Temporal misalignment of credit scoring models leading to bias and inconsistent predictions.
method Two-step temporal decomposition: static model for annual PDs, dynamic model for monthly PDs; stacking architecture to aggregate multiple models.
result Framework effectively captures credit risk evolution over time, improving temporal consistency and predictive stability.
This paper proposes a two-stage scoring approach to help lenders decide their fund allocations in the peer-to-peer (P2P) lending market. The existing scoring approaches focus on only either probability of default (PD) prediction, known as credit scoring, or profitability prediction, known as profit scoring, to identify…
This paper uses graph neural networks to predict SME default risk using transaction and ownership networks.
problem Predicting credit risk for SMEs facing limited financial histories and collateral constraints.
method Graph Neural Networks applied to multilayer network data of SME transactions and ownership.
result Combining network data with traditional data improves credit scoring and models contagion risk.
This paper improves credit risk analysis by incorporating state-dependent recovery rates into a factor model.
problem Accurate default forecasting in credit risk analysis.
method Extends a one-factor Gaussian copula model to include state-dependent recovery rates and a common factor.
result The proposed model outperforms other models in default prediction, especially during hectic periods.
XGBoost predicts bank loan defaults with improved accuracy.
problem Predicting bank loan defaults to reduce bad loans.
method Used XGBoost algorithm on loan data.
result Improved accuracy metrics in loan default prediction.
Model predicts loan default risk using dynamic multilayer graph neural networks.
problem Credit risk assessment through borrower connections.
method Dynamic multilayer graph neural network with attention mechanism.
result Attention mechanism improves model performance.
New model predicts credit spreads using stochastic CIR++ intensities.
problem Lack of continuous stochastic credit spread models and limited term structure models.
method Stochastic CIR++ model for default intensities in risk-neutral space.
result Model produces realistic credit spread term structure curves and consistent diffusion over time.
The paper uses daily bond price data to estimate corporate default spreads, improving credit risk assessment.
problem Outdated credit risk information from quarterly accounting items.
method Adapting classic yield curve estimation methods to corporate bonds, using Bayesian estimation.
result High-frequency credit risk proxy via corporate default spreads improves model stability and prediction uncertainty.
This paper develops a two-dimensional structural framework for valuing credit default swaps and corporate bonds in the presence of default contagion. Modelling the values of related firms as correlated geometric Brownian motions with exponential default barriers, analytical formulae are obtained for both credit default…
Paper offers a simple CDS approximation formula with high accuracy.
problem Lack of CDS levels for market appreciation of companies' default risk.
method Developed a global and transparent Equity-to-Credit (E2C) formula using random forest regression.
result Random forest regression with E2C formula achieves 87.3% out-of-sample accuracy in CDS approximations.
Optimal credit and consumption strategies in a switching market with default contagion.
problem Optimal portfolio and consumption decisions in a credit market with default contagion.
method Cobb-Douglas utility, recursive ODE system, backward solution from all-default state.
result Existence and uniqueness of optimal feedback controls, verification theorem.
Paper uses ML to predict SME defaults with interpretability.
problem Lack of interpretability in ML models for SME default prediction.
method Model-agnostic approach using Accumulated Local Effects and Shapley values.
result eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm provides highest classification power with interpretability.
Model improves mortgage credit risk prediction with spatio-temporal machine learning.
problem Improving accuracy of default probabilities and loan portfolio loss distributions in mortgage credit risk.
method Combines tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model.
result Predictive models outperform conventional methods due to non-linear and spatio-temporal effects.
The mixed-fractional CEV model improves CDS pricing by accounting for default risk.
problem Improving the pricing of Credit Default Swaps (CDS) by accounting for default risk.
method Using a mixed-fractional Brownian motion to model the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model.
result The mixed-fractional CEV model yields more realistic CDS spreads and default probabilities.
Method determines credit transition matrix from cumulative default probabilities.
problem Quantifying changes in bond credit ratings.
method Setup an ill-posed, linear inverse problem with entropy minimization.
result Method successfully determines CTM from cumulative default probabilities.
A multi-dimensional extension of the structural default model with firms' values driven by diffusion processes with Marshall-Olkin-inspired correlation structure is presented. Semi-analytical methods for solving the forward calibration problem and backward pricing problem in three dimensions are developed. The model is…
Many households in developing countries lack formal financial histories, making it difficult for firms to extend credit, and for potential borrowers to receive it. However, many of these households have mobile phones, which generate rich data about behavior. This article shows that behavioral signatures in mobile phone…
Proposes a motif-preserving Graph Neural Network for financial default prediction.
problem Weak connectivity and imbalance in motif patterns in graph-based models.
method MotifGNN with curriculum learning to capture higher-order topology structures.
result Significantly improved financial default prediction accuracy on public and industrial datasets.
Paper extends credit portfolio valuation under model uncertainty for multiple default times.
problem Valuation of credit portfolio derivatives under model uncertainty for multiple default times.
method Introduces a sublinear conditional operator for a family of probability measures.
result Generalizes results for single default time to multiple default times.
There are many studies on development of models for analyzing some derivatives such as credit default swaps .
This study compares logistic regression and XGBoost for predicting credit risk.
problem Predicting credit risk in financial services.
method Advanced machine learning techniques (logistic regression and XGBoost) with data preprocessing.
result XGBoost outperforms logistic regression in predicting credit risk.
New method for valuing and hedging credit risk when defaults cannot be hedged.
problem Valuation and hedging of counterparty credit risk when there's no protection available.
method Local risk-minimization approach via BSDE (Backward Stochastic Differential Equation)
result Optimal strategy computed for valuing and hedging credit risk.
We provide analytical pricing formula of corporate defaultable bond with both expected and unexpected default in the case with stochastic default intensity. In the case with constant short rate and exogenous default recovery using PDE method, we gave some pricing formula of the defaultable bond under the conditions tha…
FSL-BDP models time-to-default without centralizing data, improving privacy mechanisms in federated settings.
problem Traditional credit risk models ignore default timing and violate data-protection rules.
method Federated Survival Learning with Bayesian Differential Privacy (FSL-BDP).
result FSL-BDP improves privacy mechanisms in federated settings, outperforming classical DP in most clients.
We compare observed corporate cumulative default probabilities to those calculated using a stochastic model based on an extension of the work of Black and Cox and find that corporations default as if via diffusive dynamics. The model, based on a contingent-claims analysis of corporate capital structure, is easily calib…
This paper benchmarks monotone-constrained models for credit PD across datasets and finds constraints are mostly costless.
problem Aligning machine learning model behavior with domain knowledge in credit risk.
method Benchmarked monotone-constrained versus unconstrained gradient boosting models across five datasets and three libraries, defining the Price of Monotonicity (PoM) as the relative change in AUC.
result Monotonicity constraints are almost costless on large datasets and most costly on smaller datasets, with PoM ranging from essentially zero to about 2.9 percent.
The paper models default probabilities and total defaults in credit portfolios using a contagion process with self-exciting jumps.
problem Modeling default probabilities and total defaults in credit portfolios to mitigate credit risk.
method Developed a contagion process with self-exciting jumps to model credit events and derive closed-form expressions for default probabilities and total defaults.
result The proposed framework captures the feedback effect and can be used to price synthetic CDOs.