Paper solves portfolio optimization with fuzzy risk and credibility theory.
problem Optimizing investment in risky assets with fuzzy risk and credibility theory.
method Formulated as an optimization problem with credibilistic expected utility. Derived formulas for optimal allocation using various moments and utility function parameters.
result Different formulas for optimal allocation of risky assets are derived, considering fuzzy risk and utility function parameters.
This paper solves a coinsurance problem using fuzzy numbers and expected utility operators.
problem Formulating a coinsurance problem in the possibilistic setting of expected utility operators.
method Developed a framework using expected utility operators to model risk aversion and solve the coinsurance problem.
result Various formulas for the optimal T-coinsurance rate are derived for specific utility functions and fuzzy numbers. Theory integrates loss aversion into expected utility for monetary returns.
problem Modeling loss aversion in expected utility theory.
method Develops state-dependent linear utility functions incorporating loss aversion.
result Contracts from monopolists in insurance markets.
GBC methods compute expected utility without needing the model's density.
problem Computing expected utility in complex models.
method Density-free generative method using quantile neural estimator.
result Efficient estimation of expected utility from simulated data.
The paper confirms a conjecture about optimal expected utility in discrete-time markets approaching a continuous-time model.
problem Analyzing the convergence of optimal expected utility in discrete-time markets to a continuous-time model.
method Examined a sequence of discrete-time economies generated by scaled random walks, and compared their optimal expected utilities to the continuous-time Black-Scholes-Merton model.
result The conjecture holds for utility functions with asymptotic elasticity strictly less than one, but fails for elasticity equal to one.
Abstract: A possibilistic portfolio choice problem using expected utility operators.
problem A possibilistic portfolio choice problem in the framework of expected utility operators.
method Using expected utility operators, the paper formulates a possibilistic choice problem and derives two approximate calculation formulas for optimization.
result Two approximate calculation formulas for optimization of possibilistic portfolio choice problem.
Study examines how risk tolerance impacts long-term investment returns.
problem Understanding the impact of risk tolerance on investment returns over time.
method Used Malliavin calculus and Hansen--Scheinkman decomposition.
result Risk aversion affects long-term investment utility through eigenvalues and eigenfunctions.
Active inference minimizes expected free energy for optimal behavior.
problem Understanding and optimizing behavior in complex systems.
method Combines Bayesian decision theory, optimal Bayesian design, and the free energy principle.
result Active inference emerges as a unified framework for information-seeking, utility maximization, and goal-directed behavior.
Study optimal investment and consumption in incomplete markets with nonlinear expectations.
problem Utility maximization in incomplete markets with general constraints.
method Utilizes g-martingale method to solve optimization problem for various utility functions. result Characterizes optimal investment-consumption strategy through quadratic BSDE solutions.
Investigates conditions for risk or utility functionals to be sensitive to large losses.
problem Conditions for risk or utility functionals to be sensitive to large losses.
method Analyzes sensitivity to large losses for various risk and utility functionals.
result Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall generally fail to be sensitive to large losses, but expected utility functionals and certain adjusted versions are sensitive.
The paper analyzes how sensitive long-term utility of optimal portfolios is to changes in market models.
problem Sensitivity of long-term expected utility of optimal portfolios to market model changes.
method Analyzes utility maximization problem with long-time horizon under incomplete market given by a factor model, focusing on eigenpairs of operators.
result Eigenpairs determine long-term sensitivity of optimal expected utility to market model changes.
The paper confirms a conjecture about optimal expected utility in markets with insider information.
problem Optimal expected utility in markets with insider information.
method An extension of the Black-Scholes-Merton model with a sequence of discrete-time economies.
result Optimal expected utility converges to the classic model when conditions are met.
We demonstrate a limitation of discounted expected utility, a standard approach for representing the preference to risk when future cost is discounted. Specifically, we provide an example of the preference of a decision maker that appears to be rational but cannot be represented with any discounted expected utility. A …
Loss-calibrated EP improves Bayesian decision-making by focusing on utility-sensitive posterior approximations.
problem Bayesian decision-making under asymmetric utility functions.
method Loss-calibrated expectation propagation (Loss-EP) that tilts the posterior towards higher utility decisions.
result Loss-EP can capture useful information for decision-making under asymmetric penalties.
Optimal portfolios are found for a wide range of utility functions under hyperbolic returns.
problem Portfolio optimization under expected utility criterion for large portfolios.
method Analytical expressions for optimal portfolios under hyperbolic return distributions and various utility functions.
result The two-fund separation holds true for a broad class of utility functions.
Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in monetary wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes. Utility functions aim to capture individual psychological characteristics, but thei…
Study finds cheapest possible payoff under ambiguity, linking to maxmin expected utility.
problem Finding cost-efficient payoffs in uncertain market conditions.
method Developed a new concept of robust cost-efficient payoff and linked it to maxmin expected utility.
result Solutions to maxmin robust expected utility are robust cost-efficient.
We provide an economic interpretation of the practice consisting in incorporating risk measures as constraints in a classic expected return maximization problem. For what we call the infimum of expectations class of risk measures, we show that if the decision maker (DM) maximizes the expectation of a random return unde…
Optimizes portfolios with utility theory, diversification, and leverage.
problem Finding optimal portfolio allocation strategies.
method Utility theory, exponential and logarithmic utilities, compound probability distributions, maximum expected utility, generalized mean-variance.
result Enhanced portfolio allocation strategies with natural explanations.
We consider an infinite dimensional optimization problem motivated by mathematical economics. Within the celebrated "Arbitrage Pricing Model", we use probabilistic and functional analytic techniques to show the existence of optimal strategies for investors who maximize their expected utility.
This paper discusses an alternative explanation for the empirical findings contradicting the positive relationship between risk (variance) and reward (expected return). We show that these contradicting results might be due to the false definition of risk-perception, which we correct by introducing Expected Downside Ris…
Proves weak convergence equals mean convergence in GGC.
problem Proving convergence in GGC distributions.
method Using generalized gamma convolution (GGC) and expected utility maximization.
result Weak convergence implies mean convergence in GGC.
Study examines insurance demand under ambiguity aversion.
problem Demand for insurance indemnification under ambiguity aversion.
method Characterizes optimal indemnity functions using Maxmin-Expected Utility model.
result Optimal indemnity functions involve full insurance on low-probability events.
Diversification represents the idea of choosing variety over uniformity. Within the theory of choice, desirability of diversification is axiomatized as preference for a convex combination of choices that are equivalently ranked. This corresponds to the notion of risk aversion when one assumes the von-Neumann-Morgenster…
The paper tackles optimal policy learning with asymmetric counterfactual utilities in healthcare decisions.
problem Learning optimal policies from observed data with asymmetric counterfactual utilities.
method The approach involves identifying and minimizing the maximum expected utility loss using statistical decision theory and solving intermediate classification problems.
result One can learn minimax loss decision rules from observed data.
The paper resolves a counterexample showing convergence of expected utility in binomial models.
problem The convergence of expected utility under binomial models was previously shown to fail in certain cases.
method The paper provides a positive result on convergence using fine estimates from the Central Limit Theorem.
result A general positive result of convergence of expected utility is provided in symmetric binomial models.
We consider market players with tail-risk-seeking behaviour as exemplified by the S-shaped utility introduced by Kahneman and Tversky. We argue that risk measures such as value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are ineffective in constraining such players. We show that, in many standard market models, product d…
In this paper we study a robust expected utility maximization problem with random endowment in discrete time. We give conditions under which an optimal strategy exists and derive a dual representation for the optimal utility. Our approach is based on a general representation result for monotone convex functionals, a fu…
A new method extends Bayesian optimization to more models and utilities.
problem Extending Bayesian optimization to a broader class of models and utilities.
method Likelihood-free Bayesian Optimization (LFBO) which directly models the acquisition function without separate inference.
result LFBO outperforms state-of-the-art black-box optimization methods on real-world problems.
Motivated by the AIG bailout case in the financial crisis of 2007-2008, we consider an insurer who wants to maximize the expected utility of the terminal wealth by selecting optimal investment and risk control strategies. The insurer's risk process is modelled by a jump-diffusion process and is negatively correlated wi…
Optimal financial strategies minimize risk under uncertain models.
problem Maximizing utility in financial markets with model uncertainty.
method Optimized strategies converge to those with minimal norm as uncertainty increases.
result Optimal strategies with minimal norm emerge as uncertainty grows.
Expands Bayesian experiment design framework to account for model discrepancies.
problem Model misspecification in Bayesian optimal experiment design.
method Introduces Expected General Information Gain and Expected Discriminatory Information criteria.
result Demonstrates improved robustness and detection capabilities in experiment design.
Study optimizes insurance investment to maximize utility across all capital levels.
problem Maximizing expected utility across all capital levels in an insurance company's investment strategy.
method Dynamic Programming Principle and Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation to prove existence of optimal strategy.
result Existence of optimal investment strategy proven under certain conditions.
A new, computationally friendly formula for a class of risk-averse preferences.
problem Characterizing a class of risk-averse preferences called uniformly weighted divergence preferences.
method Introducing a new formula that characterizes UWDP as the translation-invariant hull of state-independent expected utility.
result UWDP are the translation-invariant hull of state-independent expected utility over L0. Gradient noise improves privacy-protected optimization performance.
problem Improving privacy in convex optimization while maintaining utility.
method We analyze the effect of gradient perturbation on differentially private convex optimization, focusing on expected curvature.
result Gradient perturbation can achieve a significantly improved utility guarantee for differentially private convex optimization.
Investor optimizes portfolio to manage risk with heavy-tailed stock returns.
problem Managing risk in portfolios with heavy-tailed stock returns.
method Markov Decision Process and dynamic programming for optimal strategies and value function.
result Optimal strategies and value function maximizing expected utility for both parametric and non-parametric distributions.
Investor finds a fair outcome in complex financial markets.
problem Finding a fair outcome in complex financial markets.
method Recalled and proved the existence of personal equilibrium in a multistep, generically incomplete financial market model.
result Personal equilibrium exists in a multistep, generically incomplete financial market model under appropriate assumptions.
Study preferences over uncertain time payments, finds growth-optimality better than expected utility theory.
problem Understanding how people make decisions with uncertain timing of payments.
method Normative model of growth-optimality, revisiting experimental evidence on time lotteries.
result Growth-optimality better explains experimental data on time lotteries than expected discounted utility theory.
Paper formalizes Simon's satisficing through FFSD, proving its equivalence to expected utility theory.
problem Formalizing Herbert Simon's bounded rationality concept in economic decision-making.
method Developed FFSD framework using Lean 4 theorem prover, proving equivalence to expected utility theory.
result Equivalence theorem linking FFSD to expected utility maximization for approximate indicator functions.
Investment and consumption strategy optimized under uncertain conditions.
problem Optimal investment and consumption under logarithmic utility and uncertainty model.
method Characterized using quadratic BSDE.
result Optimal solution found.
We develop a general theory of convex duality for certain singular control problems, taking the abstract results by Kramkov and Schachermayer (1999) for optimal expected utility from nonnegative random variables to the level of optimal expected utility from increasing, adapted controls. The main contributions are the f…
Assuming that agents' preferences satisfy first-order stochastic dominance, we show how the Expected Utility paradigm can rationalize all optimal investment choices: the optimal investment strategy in any behavioral law-invariant (state-independent) setting corresponds to the optimum for an expected utility maximizer w…
Bayesian Parametric Portfolio Policies corrects overestimation of utility and risk in traditional PPP.
problem Traditional Parametric Portfolio Policies ignore policy risk, leading to overestimation of expected utility and understatement of portfolio risk.
method Developed Bayesian Parametric Portfolio Policies (BPPP) by placing a prior on policy coefficients to correct the decision rule.
result BPPP delivers higher Sharpe ratios, lower turnover, larger investor welfare, and lower tail risk compared to traditional PPP.
We study the dynamic indifference pricing with ambiguity preferences. For this, we introduce the dynamic expected utility with ambiguity via the nonlinear expectation--G-expectation, introduced by Peng (2007). We also study the risk aversion and certainty equivalent for the agents with ambiguity. We obtain the dynamic …
In this paper we will provide a representation of the penalty term of general dynamic concave utilities (hence of dynamic convex risk measures) by applying the theory of g-expectations.
Formalizes vNM utility theorem using Lean 4, proving existence and uniqueness.
problem Formalizing and proving the von Neumann-Morgenstern utility theorem.
method Implement classical axioms in Lean 4, formalizing preference relations over lotteries.
result Machine-verified proofs of existence and uniqueness of utility representations.
Proposes a new VIX futures trading strategy based on term structure modeling.
problem Optimizing VIX futures trading based on term structure.
method Assumes VIX futures term structure follows a Markov model. Uses a deep neural network to model the functional dependence between VIX futures curve, positions, and expected utility.
result Backtests show reasonable portfolio performance and optimal long/short positions.
We consider the problem of maximizing expected utility from terminal wealth in models with stochastic factors. Using martingale methods and a conditioning argument, we determine the optimal strategy for power utility under the assumption that the increments of the asset price are independent conditionally on the factor…