Proposes a method for credal prediction using relative likelihood.
problem Representing epistemic uncertainty with sets of probability distributions.
method Credal prediction based on relative likelihood and ensemble learning techniques.
result Superior uncertainty representation without compromising predictive performance.
Efficient method predicts plausible probability ranges for credal sets.
problem Computational complexity in training credal predictors for complex models.
method Grounded in relative likelihood, decalibration technique.
result Yields credal sets with strong performance across diverse tasks.
A method for predicting credal sets in classification tasks using conformal prediction.
problem Designing methods for learning credal set predictors in machine learning.
method Incorporates conformal prediction for predicting credal sets in classification tasks.
result Conformal credal sets are guaranteed to be valid with high probability.
New framework compares credal sets for hypothesis testing with epistemic uncertainty.
problem Comparing distributions with partial ignorance and epistemic uncertainty.
method Credal two-sample testing framework for convex sets of probability measures.
result Direct integration of epistemic uncertainty in hypothesis testing.
CREDO combines credal and conformal methods to create interpretable prediction intervals.
problem Overconfident prediction intervals in regions of model extrapolation.
method CREDO uses a credal envelope to widen intervals in weak evidence regions and then applies conformal calibration.
result CREDO prediction intervals are interpretable and maintain target coverage.
Structured credal learning separates covariate shift and label disagreement.
problem Uncertainty in real-world learning tasks due to covariate shift and noisy labels.
method Introduces a structured credal learning framework that explicitly separates these sources.
result Geometric bounds and decomposition reveal how covariate shifts affect label disagreement contributions.
New method uses conformalization to create classification regions from ambiguous labels.
problem Creating provable guarantees in classification with uncertain labels.
method Conformal methods applied to credal regions for classification problems.
result New method provides smaller and more disentangled prediction sets.
CreDRO learns credal ensembles via distributionally robust optimization, improving EU quantification.
problem Quantifying predictive epistemic uncertainty in credal models.
method Distributionally robust optimization to capture EU from training randomness and potential distribution shifts.
result Empirically, CreDRO outperforms existing credal methods on various tasks.
Paper proposes a new method to quantify uncertainty in machine learning models.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in multiclass classification models.
method Distance-based approach using Integral Probability Metrics (IPMs).
result Effective uncertainty measures for multiclass classification.
The volume of a credal set correlates with epistemic uncertainty in binary classification but not in multi-class.
problem Representing and quantifying epistemic uncertainty in machine learning.
method Examined the geometric representation of credal sets as d-dimensional polytopes and their volume as a measure of uncertainty. result The volume of a credal set is a meaningful measure of epistemic uncertainty in binary classification but not in multi-class.
Adapts self-supervised learning using probabilistic sets with validity guarantees.
problem Lack of validity guarantees in pseudo-labels from self-supervised learning.
method Uses conformal prediction to provide validity guarantees for probabilistic labels.
result Valid probabilistic labels improve calibration and performance.
New framework improves model reliability under distribution shifts.
problem Lack of formal guarantees connecting shift magnitude to prediction reliability in TTA methods.
method Develops a PAC-Bayesian framework interpreting MMD-balls as credal sets.
result Establishes generalization bounds and provides epistemic uncertainty quantification.
The paper analyzes when credal sets stabilize under iterative updates in machine learning.
problem When do credal sets stabilize under iterative updates in machine learning?
method Fixed-point theorems for credal set updates.
result The paper provides the first analysis of credal set stability.
New theory uses probability sets for data variability, improving machine learning.
problem Variability in data distribution causes learning issues.
method Uses convex sets of probabilities (credal sets) to model data variability.
result Derives bounds for risk of models learned from multiple training sets.
A new multi-armed bandit framework with credal sets for uncertain outcomes.
problem Optimizing decisions under uncertainty with unknown outcomes.
method Introduces a novel multi-armed bandit framework with credal sets and defines regret as lower prevision.
result Upper bounds on regret for certain hypothesis classes and lower bounds for special cases.
A method for selecting pseudo-labeled data in semi-supervised learning using generalized Bayes and soft revision.
problem Selecting pseudo-labeled data for semi-supervised learning with robustness to uncertainty.
method Using credal sets and the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision to update priors and select pseudo-labeled data.
result The Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision can achieve promising results, especially in scenarios with low labeled data proportions.
Improved self-supervised learning using credal sets.
problem Lack of precise knowledge in pseudo-labels.
method Using credal sets (sets of probability distributions) for labeling unlabeled data.
result Competitive to superior performance in low-label scenarios.
New method calibrates ambiguity sets for robust decision-making under contamination.
problem Minimizing worst-case expected loss over distributional shifts in out-of-sample environments.
method Bulk-calibrated credal ambiguity sets that learn a high-mass bulk set from data and bound tail contributions.
result Closed-form, finite robust objective and tractable optimization for various losses and geometries.
CBDL uses credal sets to improve uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
problem Uncertainty in predictions and robustness to distribution shifts in deep learning.
method Train an infinite ensemble of Bayesian Neural Networks using credal sets.
result CBDL distinguishes between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties and quantifies them better than single BNNs.
Two strategies extend multi-label chaining for imprecise probability estimates.
problem Handling imprecise probability estimates in multi-label classification.
method Adapting multi-label chaining to use convex sets of distributions (credal sets).
result Adapted approaches produce relevant cautiousness on hard-to-predict instances.
The paper tackles multi-label ranking with uncertain probabilities.
problem Making skeptical inferences for multi-label ranking with sets of probabilities.
method Assumes a convex set of probabilities (credal set) over labels and seeks set-valued predictions.
result Developed methods for making skeptical inferences in multi-label ranking with uncertain probabilities.
We focus on credal nets, which are graphical models that generalise Bayesian nets to imprecise probability. We replace the notion of strong independence commonly used in credal nets with the weaker notion of epistemic irrelevance, which is arguably more suited for a behavioural theory of probability. Focusing on direct…
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is the state of the art approach for overcoming model uncertainty. Yet, especially on small data sets, the results yielded by BMA might be sensitive to the prior over the models. Credal Model Averaging (CMA) addresses this problem by substituting the single prior over the models by a set …
Conformal Prediction Regions match Imprecise Highest Density Regions under consonance.
problem Matching conformal prediction regions with highest density regions.
method Using consonance and the Imprecise Probability theory of clouds.
result Imprecise Highest Density Regions are equivalent to Conformal Prediction Regions under consonance.
Probabilistic representations, such as Bayesian and Markov networks, are fundamental to much of statistical machine learning. Thus, learning probabilistic representations directly from data is a deep challenge, the main computational bottleneck being inference that is intractable. Tractable learning is a powerful new p…
The paper introduces new measures for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning.
problem Uncertainty representation and quantification in machine learning.
method Proper scoring rules for aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification.
result Established a natural bridge between credal set and second-order distribution representations of uncertainty.
A test assesses the calibration of set-based epistemic uncertainty representations.
problem Evaluating the accuracy of set-based representations of epistemic uncertainty in machine learning.
method Proposes a novel statistical test to determine if a convex combination of predictions is calibrated, allowing instance-level variability.
result Demonstrates the benefits of capturing instance-level variability on synthetic and real-world experiments.
Optimal transport adapted for contaminated probabilities, showing equivalence under specific conditions.
problem Adapting optimal transport for ε-contaminated sets. method Generalized optimal transport problems with lower probabilities, showing equivalence under ε-contaminations. result Monge's and Kantorovich's problems coincide under ε-contaminated sets, but not always. The paper improves self-training in semi-supervised learning by selecting more robust pseudo-labeled data.
problem Improving the reliability of pseudo-labeled data selection in self-training for semi-supervised learning.
method Proposes a multi-objective utility function to select pseudo-labeled data that maximizes reliability, considering model selection, accumulation of errors, and covariate shift uncertainties.
result Robustness towards model choice can lead to substantial accuracy gains in self-training.
Empirical model tackles decision problems without specifying states of the world.
problem Decision problems under uncertainty with inaccessible states of the world.
method Empirical approach using observed act--consequence pairs as model primitives.
result Optimality in empirical decision problems addressed using protocol-based empirical choice functions.
Paper discusses optimal CP for second-order predictions.
problem How to incorporate second-order predictions into conformal prediction.
method Introduces Bernoulli prediction sets (BPS) for second-order predictions and applies conformal risk control for compromised validity.
result BPS provides the smallest prediction sets with conditional coverage.
FST.ai 2.0 improves Taekwondo decision-making with AI, reducing review time and increasing trust.
problem Fair, transparent, and explainable decision-making in Taekwondo.
method Pose-based action recognition, epistemic uncertainty modeling, interactive dashboards.
result 85% reduction in decision review time, 93% referee trust in AI-assisted decisions.
Improved iterative methods for risk parity portfolio weights.
problem Solving for portfolio weights in risk parity allocation.
method Enhanced CCD and Newton methods, including a rescaling step and improved initial guess.
result Improved CCD method is the best, three times faster with 40% fewer iterations.
We describe a novel optimization method for finite sums (such as empirical risk minimization problems) building on the recently introduced SAGA method. Our method achieves an accelerated convergence rate on strongly convex smooth problems. Our method has only one parameter (a step size), and is radically simpler than o…
A new method combines Laplace and Variational Bayes for scalable inference.
problem Complex models and large datasets make exact inference infeasible.
method Low-Rank Variational Bayes Correction (VBC) using Laplace method and Variational Bayes correction in a lower dimension.
result The method ensures scalability in both model complexity and data size.
Unified framework for model explanation methods based on feature removal.
problem Unclear relationships and preferences among various model explanation methods.
method Characterizes removal-based explanations along three dimensions.
result Unified 26 existing methods, including widely used approaches.
This work reviews and evaluates methods for predicting prediction intervals in regression problems.
problem Calibration of prediction intervals in regression problems.
method Four classes of methods: Bayesian, ensemble, direct interval estimation, and conformal prediction.
result Conformal prediction can be used as a general calibration procedure.
Derives kernel PCA with Nyström method for scalability.
problem Scalability of kernel PCA.
method Nyström method for kernel PCA.
result Provides scalable alternative to full kernel PCA.
In this paper, the author considers the numerical computation of CVA for large systems by Mote Carlo methods. He introduces two types of stochastic mesh methods for the computations of CVA. In the first method, stochastic mesh method is used to obtain the future value of the derivative contracts. In the second method, …
New method combines spectral and sparse methods for Gaussian processes.
problem Efficiently fitting Gaussian processes to large datasets.
method Orthogonally decoupled variational Fourier features.
result Competitive performance on synthetic and real-world data.
A comprehensive benchmark of 15 scRNA-seq imputation methods across various datasets and analyses.
problem Imputation of single-cell RNA sequencing data to recover latent transcriptional signals.
method Evaluation of 15 imputation methods across 30 datasets and 6 downstream analyses.
result Traditional methods generally outperform DL-based methods in scRNA-seq data analysis.
New methods using natural gradient for structured optimization.
problem Structured optimization problems.
method Structured second-order methods via natural gradient descent.
result Efficiency demonstrated on non-convex and deep learning problems.
Recently, {\it stochastic momentum} methods have been widely adopted in training deep neural networks. However, their convergence analysis is still underexplored at the moment, in particular for non-convex optimization. This paper fills the gap between practice and theory by developing a basic convergence analysis of t…
We investigate methods for pricing American options under the variance gamma model. The variance gamma process is a pure jump process which is constructed by replacing the calendar time by the gamma time in a Brownian motion with drift, which makes it a time-changed Brownian motion. In general, the finite difference me…
A new method speeds up deep neural network training.
problem Nonconvex optimization in deep neural networks.
method Scaled conjugate gradient method for nonconvex optimization.
result The method converges faster and achieves lower scores in practical applications.
We propose a new stochastic dual coordinate ascent technique that can be applied to a wide range of regularized learning problems. Our method is based on Alternating Direction Multiplier Method (ADMM) to deal with complex regularization functions such as structured regularizations. Although the original ADMM is a batch…
NCG methods improve shape optimization efficiency.
problem Shape optimization problems
method Nonlinear conjugate gradient methods
result NCG methods are efficient for shape optimization
Geometric methods study 3-manifold splittings.
problem Studying Heegaard splittings of 3-manifolds.
method Geometric approaches.
result Recent advances in geometric methods.