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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,878 papers · 148 categories

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316192122 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for covariate overlap

New method improves covariance estimation for weighted samples.

problem Improving covariance estimation for weighted sample data.
method Asymptotic non-linear shrinkage formulas for covariance and precision matrix estimators of weighted sample covariances.
result Asymptotic non-linear shrinkage formulas for covariance and precision matrix estimators of weighted sample covariances.

Study on overlaps of singular vectors in Gaussian matrix submatrices.

problem Analyzing overlaps of singular vectors in submatrices of Gaussian matrices.
method Utilizes dynamics of singular vectors and specific resolvents for Brownian trajectories.
result Explicit forms for limiting rescaled mean squared overlaps in the bulk of spectra.

New method handles correlated responses and interaction effects in multi-response regression.

problem Handling correlated responses and interaction effects in multi-response regression.
method MADMMplasso, an ADMM-based approach for multi-response regression with overlapping groups and interaction effects.
result The proposed method outperforms in prediction and variable selection for correlated responses and interaction effects.

Deconfounding scores improve causal effect estimation with weak overlap.

problem Poor overlap in treatment and control groups makes causal effect estimators brittle.
method Introduces feature representations that improve overlap without introducing bias.
result Deconfounding scores satisfy a zero-covariance condition that is identifiable in observed data.

This study evaluates cluster search algorithms using Gaussian mixture models.

problem Determining the optimal number of clusters in data sets generated by Gaussian mixture models.
method Examined centroid- and model-based cluster search algorithms in various cases.
result Model-based algorithms are more robust to cluster overlap and covariance type than centroid-based methods.

Optimal classifiers derived from GMMs are approximated by deep neural networks.

problem Binary classification of high-dimensional overlapping Gaussian mixtures.
method Closed-form expressions for Bayes optimal decision boundaries derived from GMMs' eigenstructure. Empirical validation through synthetic and real-world data.
result Deep neural networks approximate optimal classifiers for GMMs, with decision thresholds related to covariance eigenvectors.

New method handles uncertainty in causal effect estimation for better decision-making.

problem Handling uncertainty in causal effect estimation, especially in high-dimensional data and covariate shift.
method Integrates uncertainty estimation into neural network methods for individual-level causal estimates.
result Uncertainty-aware methods improve decision-making by alerting when predictions are not reliable.

Gaussian Processes offer a flexible method for modeling and predicting outcomes with uncertainty estimates.

problem Capturing uncertainty in predictions at new data points, especially with poor overlap and extrapolation.
method Gaussian Processes model a posterior distribution over outcomes, reflecting the range of plausible models.
result GPs provide a principled approach to handling extrapolation and uncertainty in predictions.

Paper extends causal inference methods beyond unconfoundedness and overlap assumptions.

problem Treatment effect identification in studies violating unconfoundedness and overlap.
method Statistical learning theory approach to identify ATE and ATT.
result General conditions for identifying ATE and ATT, including scenarios like Regression Discontinuity designs.

A method uses decision trees to detect and characterize positivity violations in causal inference.

problem Detecting and characterizing positivity violations in causal inference datasets.
method Decision trees dividing covariate space into regions for automatic detection of subspaces violating positivity.
result Scalable and interpretable characterization of subspaces with positivity violations.

The paper tackles uncertainty quantification in multi-source settings.

problem Uncertainty quantification under covariate shift is challenging in multi-source settings.
method The paper addresses this by proposing two extensions of weighted conformal prediction: merge-based aggregation and data-pooling.
result Theoretical guarantees are provided for the proposed approaches, and experiments validate their effectiveness.

Study improves machine learning for estimating survival treatment effects.

problem Estimating heterogeneous survival treatment effects in observational data.
method Flexible machine learning methods in the counterfactual framework, including AFT-BART-NP.
result AFT-BART-NP consistently yields best performance in terms of bias, precision, and frequentist coverage.

Paper explores Bayes rule for Gaussian mixtures with missing data, outperforming supervised classifiers.

problem Improving classification accuracy in partially classified samples with missing data.
method Generative model framework with missing-data mechanism, Bayes rule allocation.
result Bayes rule classifier with missing-data mechanism outperforms fully supervised classifiers in various conditions.

Develops a deep survival model for causal inference in longitudinal studies.

problem Estimating treatment effects on time-to-event outcomes in observational studies with time-dependent covariates.
method TCS model using potential outcomes framework and ensemble of recurrent subnetworks.
result Identifies conditional average treatment effects and individual treatment effect heterogeneity over time.

New methods resolve conflicting treatment effect estimates in health tech assessments.

problem Conflicting conclusions from different sponsors analyzing the same data.
method Arbitrated indirect treatment comparisons (ArMAIC) targeting a common target population.
result Estimates treatment effects in a common target population, resolving the MAIC paradox.

A new covariance estimator reduces dimensionality in high-dimensional undersized samples.

problem Challenges in estimating covariance matrices for high-dimensional data with fewer samples.
method Maximum Entropy Covariance (MEC) estimator that combines covariance matrices from different response categories.
result MEC estimator improves efficiency in dimension reduction methods like SIR and SAVE.

Study improves covariance estimation for SGD under Markovian data, matching best rates.

problem Improving covariance estimation for SGD in Markovian data settings.
method Online overlapping batch-means covariance estimator for SGD under Markovian sampling.
result Established convergence rates for covariance estimation under Markovian sampling.

Undersampling often outperforms other methods in nonparametric classification.

problem Distribution shift challenges in nonparametric binary classification.
method Proved undersampling is minimax optimal in worst-case scenarios.
result Undersampling is a robustness intervention with theoretical guarantees.

New shrinkage estimator for GMV portfolio reduces risk in high-dimensional asset settings.

problem Estimating the global minimum variance portfolio in high-dimensional settings with limited data.
method Dynamic shrinkage of the GMV portfolio using previous data as a target.
result The new estimator outperforms traditional methods in high-dimensional asset settings.

Method estimates treatment effects with continuous values, correcting for confounding.

problem Estimating treatment effects with continuous values, dealing with confounding.
method Two-stage kernel ridge regression: first stage learns response, second stage corrects for distribution shift.
result Optimal learning bounds achieved without estimating treatment density, adapts to unknown overlap and kernel spectral decay.

Overlapping clustering problem is an important learning issue in which clusters are not mutually exclusive and each object may belongs simultaneously to several clusters. This paper presents a kernel based method that produces overlapping clusters on a high feature space using mercer kernel techniques to improve separa…

2012-11-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Deconfounding scores improve causal effect estimation with weak overlap.

problem Challenges in causal treatment effect estimation due to weak overlap in high-dimensional data.
method Propose deconfounding scores to preserve identification and target estimation while improving overlap.
result Prognostic scores are overlap-optimal under a broad family of generalized linear models with Gaussian features.

Adaptive designs achieve strong Neyman regret guarantees for ATE estimation.

problem Estimating unbiased average treatment effect in sequential experiments.
method Proposed adaptive designs with O~(logT)\widetilde{O}(\log T) Neyman regret under boundedness assumptions and O~(T)\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{T}) multigroup Neyman regret in covariate-based settings.
result Adaptive designs outperform non-adaptive designs in terms of Neyman regret, especially in covariate-based settings.

A new method speeds up overlapping group lasso computations.

problem Time-consuming optimization of overlapping group lasso on large-scale problems.
method Non-overlapping statistical approximation to overlapping group lasso.
result The proposed penalty is statistically equivalent to overlapping group lasso.

Proposes a sensitivity framework to handle limited overlap in causal inference.

problem Limited overlap between treated and control groups in observational studies.
method Sensitivity framework based on worst-case confidence bounds on bias introduced by trimming.
result Protects against spurious findings by quantifying uncertainty in regions with limited overlap.

New method provides valid confidence intervals for spatial associations.

problem Limited insight into covariate-response relationships in spatial settings.
method Lipschitz-driven uncertainty quantification for spatial association.
result Valid frequentist confidence intervals for associations in spatial settings.

Producing overlapping schemes is a major issue in clustering. Recent proposed overlapping methods relies on the search of an optimal covering and are based on different metrics, such as Euclidean distance and I-Divergence, used to measure closeness between observations. In this paper, we propose the use of another meas…

2012-11-29abs ↗pdf ↗

The study simplifies assessing overlap in logistic regression models using empirical likelihood.

problem Assessing overlap in multidimensional logistic regression models.
method Translation of Silvapulle's condition to empirical likelihood maximization, mechanized with R code.
result Minimal overlapping structures are cataloged in dimensions less than four, providing rules for higher dimensions.

The paper develops a theory for random forests, separating variance components and providing methods for estimating prediction intervals.

problem Understanding the variance and uncertainty in random forest predictions.
method Design-based theory, Monte Carlo averaging, PASR resampling.
result The floor of prediction uncertainty is positive and persists even without observation overlap, providing conservative prediction intervals.

Proposes a method to use external machine-learning predictions in multinomial logistic regression.

problem Improving statistical inference using summary-level external machine-learning predictions.
method Empirical-likelihood framework incorporating moment constraints from external nonparametric machine-learning predictions.
result Fused estimator achieves strict efficiency gain over primary-only estimator under mild conditions.

The paper calibrates shrinkage covariance estimators for spectral functionals in high dimensions.

problem Calibrating shrinkage covariance estimators for spectral functionals in high dimensions.
method Derives first-order null laws, distribution-free Davis-Kahan bands, and calibrated tests for spectral functionals under shrinkage.
result Calibrated tests and intervals for spectral functionals are provided, addressing the issue of estimation noise and shrinkage bias.

Recently, to solve large-scale lasso and group lasso problems, screening rules have been developed, the goal of which is to reduce the problem size by efficiently discarding zero coefficients using simple rules independently of the others. However, screening for overlapping group lasso remains an open challenge because…

2014-10-25abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper tackles uncertainty in multi-objective decision-making.

problem Learning Pareto-efficient decisions with statistical confidence in uncertain outcomes.
method Adapting Pareto-efficient decisions to uncertainty, using conformal prediction.
result Statistical guarantees for efficient decisions in uncertain contexts.

Community detection is a fundamental problem in network analysis which is made more challenging by overlaps between communities which often occur in practice. Here we propose a general, flexible, and interpretable generative model for overlapping communities, which can be thought of as a generalization of the degree-co…

2014-12-10abs ↗pdf ↗

RISA improves VFL by using imputed samples with low uncertainty.

problem Limited overlapping samples constrain VFL performance.
method Imputing non-overlapping samples and using evidence theory to select reliable imputed samples.
result Significant performance gains achieved, especially with limited overlapping samples.

New method estimates latent gene expression factors without overlap with known confounders.

problem Estimating latent variance components in gene expression data with known confounders.
method Restricted maximum-likelihood method maximizing likelihood on orthogonal subspace.
result Method reduces runtime and attains greater likelihood values than gradient-based optimizers.