A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study uses causal machine learning to assess coupon campaign impact on retailer sales.
This study benchmarks AI agents for personalized retail promotions using simulations.
We consider the problem of identifying current coupons for Agency backed To-be-Announced (TBA) Mortgage Backed Securities. In a doubly stochastic factor based model which allows for prepayment intensities to depend upon current and origination mortgage rates, as well as underlying investment factors, we identify the cu…
Pricing formulae for defaultable corporate bonds with discrete coupons under consideration of the government taxes in the united model of structural and reduced form models are provided. The aim of this paper is to generalize the comprehensive structural model for defaultable fixed income bonds (considered in [1]) into…
In the UK betting market, bookmakers often offer a free coupon to new customers. These free coupons allow the customer to place extra bets, at lower risk, in combination with the usual betting odds. We are interested in whether a customer can exploit these free coupons in order to make a sure gain, and if so, how the c…
The paper analyzes the mathematics of the relationship between the default risk and yield-to-maturity of a coupon bond. It is shown that the yield-to-maturity is driven not only by the default probability and recovery rate of the bond but also by other contractual characteristics of the bond that are not commonly assoc…
Paper analyzes pricing model for bonds with early redemption.
Study uses VIX for zero-coupon Treasury rates, proving long-term stability and returns.
We introduce a bond portfolio management theory based on foundations similar to those of stock portfolio management. A general continuous-time zero-coupon market is considered. The problem of optimal portfolios of zero-coupon bonds is solved for general utility functions, under a condition of no-arbitrage in the zero-c…
Unified framework matches equity and bond yields.
In this paper, we implement a stochastic deflator with five economic and financial risk factors: interest rates, market price of risk, stock prices, default intensities, and convenience yields. We examine the deflator with different financial assets, such as stocks, zero-coupon bonds, vanilla options, and corporate cou…
We derive a closed-form formula for computing bond prices between coupon payments. Our results cover both the `Treasury' and the `Street' pricing methods used by sovereign and corporate issuers. We apply our formulas to two UK gilts, the 8% Treasury Gilt 2015, and the 0.5% Treasury Gilt 2022, and show that we can obtai…
This paper uses advanced math to price special insurance bonds.
In this paper we show how to hedge a zero coupon bond with a smaller amount of initial capital than required by the classical risk neutral paradigm, whose (trivial) hedging strategy does not suggest to invest in the risky assets. Long dated zero coupon bonds we derive, invest first primarily in risky securities and whe…
Conditions of Stability for explicit finite difference scheme and some results of numerical analysis for a unified 2 factor model of structural and reduced form types for corporate bonds with fixed discrete coupon are provided. It seems to be difficult to get solution formula for PDE model which generalizes Agliardi's …
We analyze analytic approximation formulae for pricing zero-coupon bonds in the case when the short-term interest rate is driven by a one-factor mean-reverting process with a volatility nonlinearly depending on the interest rate itself. We derive the order of accuracy of the analytical approximation due to Choi and Wir…
Uplift models support decision-making in marketing campaign planning. Estimating the causal effect of a marketing treatment, an uplift model facilitates targeting communication to responsive customers and efficient allocation of marketing budgets. Research into uplift models focuses on conversion models to maximize inc…
Paper proposes an analytical pricing model for puttable bonds with credit risk.
Modeling longevity bonds with a Vasicek model for better risk management.
The aim of this paper is to present a dual-term structure model of interest rate derivatives in order to solve the two hardest problems in financial modeling: the exact volatility calibration of the entire swaption matrix, and the calculation of bucket vegas for structured products. The model takes a series of long-ter…
In this paper, we establish a market model for the term structure of forward inflation rates based on the risk-neutral dynamics of nominal and real zero-coupon bonds. Under the market model, we can price inflation caplets as well as inflation swaptions with a formula similar to the Black's formula, thus justify the cur…
Extends OPE to evaluate policies using diverse logging data.
The study uses machine learning to predict CAT bond coupons based on climate data.
Study analyzes bond traders' views on equity market dynamics.
We consider a two-factor model for the valuation of a non callable defaultable bond which pays coupons at certain given dates. The model under consideration is the Jump to Default Constant Elasticity of Variance (JDCEV) model. The JDCEV model is an improvement of the reduced form approach, which unifies credit and equi…
Revisits Jarrow & Turnbull model for credit and liquidity risk.
New inflation model captures correlations and skew in interest rates.
The paper shows real market exists free lunches with vanishing risks.
New framework analyzes why more negative samples improve self-supervised learning performance.
Investors choose between bonds and savings accounts based on utility maximization.
In this paper, a finite-state mean-reverting model for the short-rate, based on the continuous time Ehrenfest process, will be examined. Two explicit pricing formulae for zero-coupon bonds will be derived in the general and the special symmetric cases. Its limiting relationship to the Vasicek model will be examined wit…
In this article, we consider a Markov-modulated model with jumps for short rate dynamics. We obtain closed formulas for the term structure and forward rates using the properties of the jump-telegraph process and the expectation hypothesis. The results are compared with the numerical solution of the corresponding partia…
In a market of deterministic cash flows, given as an additive, symmetric relation of exchangeability on the finite signed Borel measures on the non-negative real time axis, it is shown that the only arbitrage-free price functional that fulfills some additional mild requirements is the integral of the unit zero-coupon b…
This paper provides a methodology for fast and accurate pricing of the long-dated contracts that arise as the building blocks of insurance and pension fund agreements. It applies the recursive marginal quantization (RMQ) and joint recursive marginal quantization (JRMQ) algorithms outside the framework of traditional ri…
New sampling bounds improve uniform coverage verification in machine learning.
Gaussian Process Regression improves damage assessment in structural health monitoring.
Develops a bi-variate stochastic framework to model mortality and interest rates with long-range dependence.
We propose an option approach for pricing bond illiquidity that is reminiscent of the celebrated work of Longstaff (1995) on the non-marketability of some non-dividend-paying shares in IPOs. This approach describes a quite common situation in the fixed income market: it is rather usual to find issuers that, besides liq…
The paper calibrates the G2++ model using deep learning for interest rates.
A new method reduces Monte Carlo variance for financial payoffs.
I present the technique which can analyse some interest rate models: Constantinides-Ingersoll, CIR-model, geometric CIR and Geometric Brownian Motion. All these models have the unified structure of Whittaker function. The main focus of this text is closed-form solutions of the zero-coupon bond value in these models. In…
Motivated by the developments in cyber risk treatment in the finance industry, we propose a general framework of cyber bond, whose main purpose is to insure (compensate) losses of a cyber attack. Based on a database of publicly available cyber events, we determine cyber loss distribution parameters and use them to nume…
In this paper we compare two classical one-factor diffusion models which are used to model the term structure of interest rates. One of them is based on the Wiener-Bachelier process while the second one is based on the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We show essential differences between the prices of European call options…
We discuss two numerical methods, based on a path integral approach described in a previous paper (I), for solving the stochastic equations underlying the financial markets: the Monte Carlo approach, and the Green function deterministic numerical method. Then, we apply the latter to some specific financial problems. In…
The well-known theorem of Dybvig, Ingersoll and Ross shows that the long zero-coupon rate can never fall. This result, which, although undoubtedly correct, has been regarded by many as surprising, stems from the implicit assumption that the long-term discount function has an exponential tail. We revisit the problem in …
We determine the price of digital double barrier options with an arbitrary number of barrier periods in the Black-Scholes model. This means that the barriers are active during some time intervals, but are switched off in between. As an application, we calculate the value of a structure floor for structured notes whose …
We construct Zero-Coupon Bond markets driven by a cylindrical Brownian motion in which the notion of generalized portfolio has important flaws: There exist bounded smooth random variables with generalized hedging portfolios for which the price of their risky part is at each time. For these generalized portfol…
In this article, we explore a class of tractable interest rate models that have the property that the price of a zero-coupon bond can be expressed as a polynomial of a state diffusion process. Our results include a classification of all such time-homogeneous single-factor models in the spirit of Filipovic's maximal deg…