A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study infers evolutionary interactions from protein sequences using regularization methods.
Sparse variational approximations allow for principled and scalable inference in Gaussian Process (GP) models. In settings where several GPs are part of the generative model, theses GPs are a posteriori coupled. For many applications such as regression where predictive accuracy is the quantity of interest, this couplin…
Agents learn and control complex mechanical systems through shared memories.
New couplings improve understanding of molecular dynamics convergence.
NSBI approach detects Higgs trilinear coupling with high luminosity upgrade constraints.
I propose a variational approach to maximum pseudolikelihood inference of the Ising model. The variational algorithm is more computationally efficient, and does a better job predicting out-of-sample correlations than regularized maximum pseudolikelihood inference as well as mean field and isolated spin pair appro…
The Black Box Variational Inference (Ranganath et al. (2014)) algorithm provides a universal method for Variational Inference, but taking advantage of special properties of the approximation family or of the target can improve the convergence speed significantly. For example, if the approximation family is a transforma…
We study historical dynamics of joint equilibrium distribution of stock returns in the U.S. stock market using the Boltzmann distribution model being parametrized by external fields and pairwise couplings. Within Boltzmann learning framework for statistical inference, we analyze historical behavior of the parameters in…
We consider the inverse Ising problem, i.e. the inference of network couplings from observed spin trajectories for a model with continuous time Glauber dynamics. By introducing two sets of auxiliary latent random variables we render the likelihood into a form, which allows for simple iterative inference algorithms with…
Vortex induced vibrations of bluff bodies occur when the vortex shedding frequency is close to the natural frequency of the structure. Of interest is the prediction of the lift and drag forces on the structure given some limited and scattered information on the velocity field. This is an inverse problem that is not str…
Compositional diffusion models simulate coupled PDEs efficiently.
Efficiently infers coupled hidden Markov models with noisy discrete observations.
Using methods of statistical physics, we analyse the error of learning couplings in large Ising models from independent data (the inverse Ising problem). We concentrate on learning based on local cost functions, such as the pseudo-likelihood method for which the couplings are inferred independently for each spin. Assum…
We investigate the low-dimensional structure of deterministic transformations between random variables, i.e., transport maps between probability measures. In the context of statistics and machine learning, these transformations can be used to couple a tractable "reference" measure (e.g., a standard Gaussian) with a tar…
New method identifies network structure without regularization for sparse teacher couplings.
Many recent invertible neural architectures are based on coupling block designs where variables are divided in two subsets which serve as inputs of an easily invertible (usually affine) triangular transformation. While such a transformation is invertible, its Jacobian is very sparse and thus may lack expressiveness. Th…
Random features are improved by variance-reducing couplings, enhancing machine learning models.
We present a coupled Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) method that improves the accuracy and robustness of the probabilistic inferences on represented data. The new method models the dependency between input feature vectors (images) and weighs the outliers with a higher penalty by generalizing the original loss function t…
Networks of coupled dynamical systems provide a powerful way to model systems with enormously complex dynamics, such as the human brain. Control of synchronization in such networked systems has far reaching applications in many domains, including engineering and medicine. In this paper, we formulate the synchronization…
Coupled entropy corrects flaws in Tsallis entropy for complex systems.
New normalizing flows in hyperbolic space improve posterior modeling for hierarchical data.
We introduce a novel kernel that models input-dependent couplings across multiple latent processes. The pairwise joint kernel measures covariance along inputs and across different latent signals in a mutually-dependent fashion. A latent correlation Gaussian process (LCGP) model combines these non-stationary latent comp…
ARK improves knockoffs robustness to feature distribution misspecification.
We develop a technique for generalising from data in which models are samplers represented as program text. We establish encouraging empirical results that suggest that Markov chain Monte Carlo probabilistic programming inference techniques coupled with higher-order probabilistic programming languages are now sufficien…
Improved flow-based models capture dependencies better with multi-scale autoregressive priors.
SIMPLE-RC method tests group membership profiles in large networks with weak signals.
Recent work in variational inference (VI) uses ideas from Monte Carlo estimation to tighten the lower bounds on the log-likelihood that are used as objectives. However, there is no systematic understanding of how optimizing different objectives relates to approximating the posterior distribution. Developing such a conn…
We present a general framework, the coupled compound Poisson factorization (CCPF), to capture the missing-data mechanism in extremely sparse data sets by coupling a hierarchical Poisson factorization with an arbitrary data-generating model. We derive a stochastic variational inference algorithm for the resulting model …
A normalizing flow models a complex probability density as an invertible transformation of a simple base density. Flows based on either coupling or autoregressive transforms both offer exact density evaluation and sampling, but rely on the parameterization of an easily invertible elementwise transformation, whose choic…
Probabilistic approaches for tensor factorization aim to extract meaningful structure from incomplete data by postulating low rank constraints. Recently, variational Bayesian (VB) inference techniques have successfully been applied to large scale models. This paper presents full Bayesian inference via VB on both single…
The behaviour of many real-world phenomena can be modelled by nonlinear dynamical systems whereby a latent system state is observed through a filter. We are interested in interacting subsystems of this form, which we model by a set of coupled maps as a synchronous update graph dynamical systems. Specifically, we study …
New method infers viral load from pooled tests.
Study investigates learning performance in inverse Ising problems with sparse teacher couplings.
Patterns of mobile phone communications, coupled with the information of the social network graph and financial behavior, allow us to make inferences of users' socio-economic attributes such as their income level. We present here several methods to extract features from mobile phone usage (calls and messages), and comp…
AIF improves physical AI agents' performance in dynamic environments.
New PG samplers improve inference in coupled state-space models.
Efficiently models tree-like data with coupled branches using HMMs.
This paper studies when particle filtering is efficient for planning in partially observed systems.
Method for initializing Gaussian mixtures for variational inference with multi-modal distributions.
Metabolic flux balance analyses are a standard tool in analysing metabolic reaction rates compatible with measurements, steady-state and the metabolic reaction network stoichiometry. Flux analysis methods commonly place unrealistic assumptions on fluxes due to the convenience of formulating the problem as a linear prog…
Nonlocal Bayesian modeling for continuous spatio-temporal dynamics
Paper tackles causal inference with partially labeled data, introducing robust methods.
Improved VAE models avoid posterior collapse in text modeling.
Researchers analyze inverse optimal transport, deriving theoretical and empirical insights.
We present a novel probabilistic programming framework that couples directly to existing large-scale simulators through a cross-platform probabilistic execution protocol, which allows general-purpose inference engines to record and control random number draws within simulators in a language-agnostic way. The execution …
Extends GP regression to complex Helmholtz problems, improving wavefield inference in brain elastography.
Bayesian inference over admissible histories leads to irreversible kinetics.
Efficiently infers latent SDEs with scalable memory and time costs.