The paper prices a new life insurance policy for couples, considering various contingent benefits.
problem Valuation of life insurance policies for dependent coupled lives.
method Employed the QP-rule combining real-world and risk-neutral measures for pricing. result Explicit pricing expressions for the new insurance policy were derived and analyzed.
PolyBench benchmarks LLMs on real market data, revealing significant performance gaps.
problem Benchmarking LLMs for real-world event prediction from live market signals.
method Multimodal benchmark derived from Polymarket, evaluating 7 LLMs under identical market states.
result Only two models achieve positive financial returns, highlighting the gap between fluency and probabilistic reasoning.
Faster GW alignment for incomparable point clouds via low-rank couplings.
problem Aligning points across incomparable point clouds.
method Low-rank couplings and costs to solve Gromov-Wasserstein framework in linear time.
result Linear-time computation of Gromov-Wasserstein distances.
A recent proposal by Ryu and Takayanagi for a holographic interpretation of entanglement entropy in conformal field theories dual to supergravity on anti-de Sitter (adS) is generalized to include entanglement entropy of black holes living on the boundary of adS. The generalized proposal is verified in boundary dimensio…
Scoping review of EO-ML methods for causal inference in poverty geography.
problem Lack of thorough documentation and best practices for EO-ML methods in causal analysis.
method Comprehensive scoping review cataloging five principal approaches.
result Detailed protocol for integrating EO data into causal analysis.
Study creates a global living index to assess quality of life.
problem Long-term impacts of global economic changes on living conditions.
method Machine learning framework combining socio-economic factors.
result Developed a practical tool for policymakers to identify areas needing improvement.
Living review of ML for particle physics, updated frequently.
problem Keeping up with rapid advancements in ML for particle physics.
method Creating a living document to list and update citations of ML applications.
result Provides a comprehensive list of ML citations for particle physics.
LiveTradeBench evaluates LLMs in live trading environments.
problem Static benchmarks fail to assess real-world trading ability.
method Live data streaming, portfolio management abstraction, multi-market evaluation.
result LLMs show distinct portfolio styles and adapt to live signals.
Backtests of structured strategies lose much of their predictive power in live trading.
problem Uncertainty in how marketed backtests predict live performance of structured strategies.
method Analysis of 1,726 structured strategies from ten global institutions.
result Raw backtests have limited portability into live trading and deteriorate sharply.
Probabilistic matrix factorization (PMF) is a powerful method for modeling data associated with pairwise relationships, finding use in collaborative filtering, computational biology, and document analysis, among other areas. In many domains, there is additional information that can assist in prediction. For example, wh…
Probabilistic matrix factorization (PMF) is a powerful method for modeling data associ- ated with pairwise relationships, Finding use in collaborative Filtering, computational bi- ology, and document analysis, among other areas. In many domains, there are additional covariates that can assist in prediction. For example…
Let (M,g) be a compact, connected and oriented Riemannian manifold. We denote D the space of smooth probability density functions on M. In this paper, we show that the Frechet manifold D is equipped with a Riemannian metric g^{D} and an affine connection \nabla^{D} which are infinite dimensional analogues of the Fisher…
AI-Trader benchmarks LLMs in live financial markets, revealing poor trading performance.
problem Challenges in real-time financial decision-making by autonomous agents.
method Fully automated, live evaluation benchmark with minimal human intervention.
result General intelligence does not translate to effective trading, highlighting limitations.
BiCB combines traffic prediction and bidding optimization for live advertising.
problem Real-time bidding in live advertising with unknown future traffic.
method Binary Constrained Bidding (BiCB) that merges mathematical analysis and statistical traffic estimation.
result BiCB achieves good approximation to optimal bidding results with low complexity.
Model optimal growth strategy in a market with short-lived assets.
problem Investment market with short-lived assets and endogenous prices.
method Formulate stochastic equation for wealth processes and prove existence of optimal strategy.
result Existence of a submartingale strategy ensuring investor's wealth growth asymptotically.
Multi-StyleGAN simulates live cell microscopy imagery.
problem Costly and complex live cell experiments.
method Generative adversarial network (GAN) synthesizing multi-domain time-lapse images.
result Captures biophysical factors and time dependencies in cell imagery.
Insurance and annuity products covering several lives require the modelling of the joint distribution of future lifetimes. In the interest of simplifying calculations, it is common in practice to assume that the future lifetimes among a group of people are independent. However, extensive research over the past decades …
Predict human lives using sequences of life events.
problem Predicting human life outcomes based on detailed event sequences.
method Adapting natural language processing techniques to analyze life events.
result Models predict diverse outcomes with high accuracy, outperforming state-of-the-art models.
We tested in a live setting the use of active learning for selecting text sentences for human annotations used in training a Thai segmentation machine learning model. In our study, two concurrent annotated samples were constructed, one through random sampling of sentences from a text corpus, and the other through model…
A criterion for training-free time-lagged spectral embeddings of multivariate time series
problem Applicability of fixed-length descriptors for multivariate time series
method Using a stationary Gaussian VAR(1) model and cosine similarity to classify descriptors
result D(τ) separates two classes when signals are approximately stationary and cross-channel temporal coupling is present
High-frequency trading models fail due to overfitting and survivor bias.
problem Failure of hybrid DRL-EC trading systems in high-frequency environments.
method Deployed a population of 500 agents in a high-frequency cryptocurrency environment, analyzing failure modes through multi-disciplinary lens.
result Increasing model complexity without information asymmetry exacerbates systemic fragility.
Study finds consumers are more price-sensitive before livestreams than after.
problem Understanding consumer demand during livestreaming lifecycle.
method Examined consumer demand for live events and recorded versions using data from a livestreaming platform.
result Demand is more price-sensitive before livestreams than after.
Proposes GDTW for aligning time series on different, incomparable spaces.
problem Dynamic time warping requires comparable spaces, but time series can live on different, incomparable spaces.
method Gromov dynamic time warping (GDTW) considers intra-relational geometry to avoid comparability requirements.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of GDTW in aligning, combining, and comparing time series on incomparable spaces.
Project forecasts crop prices to help Indian farmers choose optimal crops for better ROI.
problem Indian farmers struggle to choose crops that fetch decent profits due to lack of scientific decision-making.
method Price forecasting to create an optimal portfolio of crops for better ROI.
result Data-driven decision-making for crop selection leads to higher estimated ROI.
YC Bench forecasts startup success in Y Combinator batches with a short-term metric.
problem Difficult forecasting of startup success due to sparse meaningful outcomes and slow evaluation cycles.
method Developed a live benchmark using publicly available traction signals and web visibility metrics.
result Revealed 6 out of 11 top performers at YC Demo Day with a simple proxy for prior brand recognition.
Complex models are commonly used in predictive modeling. In this paper we present R packages that can be used to explain predictions from complex black box models and attribute parts of these predictions to input features. We introduce two new approaches and corresponding packages for such attribution, namely live and …
Future buildings will offer new convenience, comfort, and efficiency possibilities to their residents. Changes will occur to the way people live as technology involves into people's lives and information processing is fully integrated into their daily living activities and objects. The future expectation of smart build…
The emergence of an ageing population is a significant public health concern. This has led to an increase in the number of people living with progressive neurodegenerative disorders like dementia. Consequently, the strain this is places on health and social care services means providing 24-hour monitoring is not sustai…
First I will explain my motivation to introduce the δ-invariants for Riemannian manifolds. I will also recall the notions of ideal immersions and best ways of living. Then I will present a few of the many applications of δ-invariants to several areas in mathematics. Finally, I will present two optimal inequalities …
Deep learning predicts cryptocurrency price movements with 78% accuracy.
problem Predicting price formation in cryptocurrency markets with high volatility and illiquidity.
method Applied deep learning to predict mid-price changes on live tick-level cryptocurrency data.
result Achieved 78% accuracy in predicting mid-price movement of Bitcoin vs USD.
The logarithmic Riemann surface Sigma_{log} is a classical holomorphic 1-manifold. It lives into R^4 and induces a covering space of C - 0 defined by exp. This paper suggests a geometric construction of it, derived as the limit of a sequence of vector fields extending exp suitably to embeddings of C into R^3, which tur…
Neural networks have shown great potential in many applications like speech recognition, drug discovery, image classification, and object detection. Neural network models are inspired by biological neural networks, but they are optimized to perform machine learning tasks on digital computers. The proposed work explores…
Motivated by the study of coupled Kähler-Einstein metrics by Hultgren and Witt Nyström and coupled Kähler-Ricci solitons by Hultgren, we study in this paper coupled Sasaki-Einstein metrics and coupled Sasaki-Ricci solitons. We first show an isomorphism between the Lie algebra of all transverse holomorphic vector fields…
A predictor that is deployed in a live production system may perturb the features it uses to make predictions. Such a feedback loop can occur, for example, when a model that predicts a certain type of behavior ends up causing the behavior it predicts, thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this paper we analyze p…
Defines coupled embeddability for maps on products of spaces, generating examples and nonexamples.
problem Understanding when maps on products of spaces can be embedded.
method Uses known results for nonsingular biskew and bilinear maps, studies genericity properties, extends Whitney embedding theorems, and relates to Z/2-coindex of embedding spaces. result Generates strong obstructions to coupled embeddability in terms of combinatorics of triangulations.
Solves modified conjecture for Fano manifolds using Ding stability.
problem Finding Kähler-Einstein metrics on Fano manifolds.
method Interprets Ding semistability and solves modified conjecture.
result Solves modified conjecture for coupled Kähler-Einstein metrics on Fano manifolds.
UNTIE learns representations of coupled categorical data.
problem Challenges in learning from unlabeled categorical data with complex couplings.
method UNTIE approach for unsupervised representation learning of heterogeneous couplings.
result UNTIE significantly improves categorical data representations on 25 diverse datasets.
Paper discusses conditions for deforming coupled Kähler-Einstein metrics.
problem Conditions for deforming coupled Kähler-Einstein metrics.
method Analyzes deformation of coupled Kähler-Einstein metrics on Fano manifolds.
result Necessary and sufficient condition for deformation of coupled Kähler-Einstein metrics.
Develops non-Markovian couplings for sub-Riemannian Brownian motions.
problem Constructing couplings for sub-Riemannian Brownian motions starting from points on the same vertical fiber.
method Uses global isometries to construct maximal couplings, satisfying a reflection principle.
result Estimates coupling time and applies to inequalities for the heat semigroup.
We address the problem of defining a network graph on a large collection of classes. Each class is comprised of a collection of data points, sampled in a non i.i.d. way, from some unknown underlying distribution. The application we consider in this paper is a large scale high dimensional survey of people living in the …
We introduce a new numerical invariant of knots and links from the descending diagrams. It is considered to live between the unknotting number and the bridge number.
Numerical observations on martingale couplings are confirmed under certain conditions.
problem Understanding the validity of numerical observations on maximizers and minimizers of martingale couplings.
method Investigation of sufficient conditions and counterexamples for the property to hold.
result The non-decreasing property of martingale couplings is preserved for maximizers under specific conditions.
Compositional diffusion models simulate coupled PDEs efficiently.
problem Efficiently simulating long-horizon coupled PDE systems.
method Diffusion models trained on decoupled data are composed at inference time.
result Compositional diffusion models recover coupled trajectories with low error.
The paper studies the question of whether the classical mirror and synchronous couplings of two Brownian motions minimise and maximise, respectively, the coupling time of the corresponding geometric Brownian motions. We establish a characterisation of the optimality of the two couplings over any finite time horizon and…
Unified analytic account of correlation emergence and Epps effect in coupled limit order books
problem Correlation emergence and Epps effect in coupled limit order books
method Discrete random-walk description of order flow with creation, cancellation, and diffusion, coupled reaction-diffusion equations with moving reaction boundary
result Realized correlations as a function of aggregation time
A new policy minimizes loss in high-volume, short-lived multi-armed bandit problems.
problem Minimizing loss in high-volume, short-lived multi-armed bandit problems.
method Proposed a Bayesian policy to minimize loss over a large class of prior distributions.
result Our policy outperforms existing methods by 4.32% in total duration and 7.48% in total number of click-throughs.
Study on kinetic Langevin diffusions and their couplings, showing subtle TV bounds and new non-Markovian couplings.
problem Understanding and quantifying the TV distance between solutions of kinetic Langevin diffusions with different initial values.
method Established new non-Markovian couplings for kinetic Langevin diffusions, derived from optimal coalescence trajectories, and analyzed their TV bounds.
result No Markovian coupling can capture the asymptotic decay rate of the TV distance between solutions of kinetic Langevin diffusions with different initial values.
GenéLive! generates rhythm game commands with musical structure.
problem Generating accurate rhythm commands in music games.
method Deep generative model that considers musical structures.
result Reduced business cost by half at KLab Inc.