Proposes Exogenous Matching for efficient counterfactual estimation.
problem Efficient estimation of counterfactual expressions in general settings.
method Transforms variance minimization into conditional distribution learning.
result Outperforms other importance sampling methods in counterfactual estimation.
MCCE generates realistic counterfactual explanations for tabular data.
problem Creating valid and actionable counterfactual explanations for complex tabular data.
method MCCE models the joint distribution of features and decision using an autoregressive generative model with decision trees. It samples counterfactuals and removes invalid ones.
result MCCE outperforms state-of-the-art methods on various performance metrics and is faster.
ACE improves counterfactual explanations with fewer model queries.
problem Inefficient sampling for counterfactual explanations in machine learning models.
method Adaptive sampling combining Bayesian estimation and stochastic optimization.
result ACE achieves superior evaluation efficiency compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Proposes counterfactual explanations for deep two-sample tests on high-dimensional data.
problem Limited interpretability of deep two-sample tests on high-dimensional data.
method Combines diffusion autoencoder and pretrained deep two-sample test model to generate counterfactuals.
result Counterfactual transformations increase p-values, indicating closer distribution similarity.
Generative adversarial approach for satellite image time series land cover classification.
problem Enhance interpretability of land cover classification models.
method Generative adversarial counterfactual approach for multi-class land cover classification.
result Discovery of interesting information on land cover class relationships and sparser, interpretable solutions.
A new oversampling framework generates minority samples by perturbing majority classes.
problem Oversampling in imbalanced classification often neglects majority classes, leading to samples spread across the minority space.
method Introduces a counterfactual objective to generate new minority samples by perturbing majority samples.
result Generated minority samples are near the decision boundary and significantly outperform state-of-the-art methods.
MultiVerse uses importance sampling for efficient causal reasoning in probabilistic programming.
problem Efficient causal reasoning in probabilistic models, especially counterfactual inference.
method Native implementation of importance sampling in probabilistic programming, optimizing inference through query structure.
result Significant optimisation of inference process through careful design choices and query structure consideration.
A new method generates counterfactual treatment outcomes for time-varying treatments.
problem Estimating counterfactual outcomes for time-varying treatments with high-dimensional outcomes.
method Conditional generative framework with inverse probability re-weighting.
result Our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in generating high-quality counterfactual samples.
ABC method analyzes diffusion model dependence without retraining.
problem Difficulties in characterizing diffusion models' dependence on training data.
method Ablation-based counterfactuals using model components trained on different splits.
result Demonstrates limits of training data attribution and existence of unattributable samples.
DeepBC method computes backtracking counterfactuals in deep causal models.
problem Computing valid counterfactuals in complex causal models.
method DeepBC method using Langevin Monte Carlo or constrained optimization.
result DeepBC provides causally compliant, versatile, and modular counterfactuals.
New framework improves counterfactual predictions using causal inference.
problem Challenges in predicting counterfactual outcomes with limited covariates and high-dimensional outcomes.
method Variational Bayesian causal inference framework for counterfactual generative modeling.
result Framework encourages disentangled exogenous noise and correct identification of causal effects.
CPME embeds counterfactual outcomes in RKHS for flexible policy evaluation.
problem Estimating counterfactual policy outcomes for decision-making.
method Counterfactual Policy Mean Embedding (CPME) framework in RKHS, plug-in and doubly robust estimators, kernel test statistic.
result Doubly robust estimator improves convergence rates and asymptotic normality.
Generates counterfactuals in target domain from source domain observations.
problem Cross-domain learning with domain shifts and lack of parallel datasets.
method Unsupervised, Neural Causal Models, Joint Causal Graphs, Effect-Intrinsic vs Domain-Intrinsic Variables.
result Framework generates counterfactuals that closely match ground truth.
Develops methods to answer counterfactual questions in temporal point processes.
problem Lack of counterfactual analysis in temporal point process models.
method Causal model of thinning based on Gumbel-Max structural causal model, superposition theorem, and sampling algorithm.
result Simulation of counterfactual realizations provides valuable insights for targeted interventions.
Proposes a new method for estimating counterfactual treatment effects.
problem Uncertainty in identifying causal mechanisms from observational data.
method Introduces a parameterized family of causal mechanisms that generalize Gumbel-max, trained to minimize counterfactual effect variance.
result Trained mechanisms yield lower variance estimates of counterfactual treatment effects.
Paper introduces CoD for few-shot task-aware knowledge distillation using counterfactual explanations.
problem Lack of data for task-aware distillation in resource-constrained scenarios.
method Counterfactual-explanation-infused Distillation CoD for few-shot task-aware knowledge distillation.
result CoD achieves superior performance with significantly fewer samples than baseline methods.
This manuscript introduces the idea of using Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) for the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) problem. Tapping into a rich existing literature, we show that DRO is a principled tool for counterfactual decision making. We also show that well-established solutions to the CRM probl…
Study evaluates counterfactual explanations using Pearl's method.
problem Bias in counterfactual explanations generated from machine learning models.
method Evaluates counterfactual explanations using Judea Pearl's counterfactual method.
result Thirty percent of counterfactual explanations conflicted with Pearl's method.
The paper tackles counterfactual inference with multioutput deep kernels in high-dimensional settings.
problem Performing counterfactual inference with observational data in high-dimensional settings with multiple actions and outcomes.
method The paper presents a general class of counterfactual multi-task deep kernels models based on Structural Causal Models (SCM) and Gaussian Processes.
result The models estimate causal effects and learn policies efficiently, scaling well with high dimensions.
Develops a new model for generating counterfactuals using incomplete data.
problem Lack of complete labels and data in medical image analysis.
method Semi-supervised deep causal generative model that infers missing values using causal inference.
result Generates realistic counterfactuals even with incomplete labels.
Learning representations for counterfactual inference from observational data is of high practical relevance for many domains, such as healthcare, public policy and economics. Counterfactual inference enables one to answer "What if...?" questions, such as "What would be the outcome if we gave this patient treatment $t_…
A new method for generating counterfactual explanations in high-dimensional datasets.
problem Creating realistic counterfactual explanations in complex, high-dimensional data.
method A discretized approach using binary search and boundary approximation.
result Our method reduces the distance between counterfactuals by 5% to 50% in terms of the L2 norm.
A new method models continuous-time counterfactual outcomes using neural controlled differential equations.
problem Estimating personalized healthcare outcomes over irregularly sampled data.
method Interpreting data as samples from a continuous-time process, modeling latent trajectory using controlled differential equations, and using adversarial training for time-dependent confounding.
result TE-CDE consistently outperforms existing approaches in irregularly sampled scenarios.
Algorithmic trading systems on DEXs reject most candidate tokens, but the counterfactual outcome of rejected candidates is rarely measured.
problem Measuring the counterfactual outcome of rejected tokens in algorithmic trading systems on decentralized exchanges.
method Post-Rejection Follow-up Sampling (PRFS) introduces a methodology for collecting and analyzing the data needed to evaluate filter precision against actual market outcomes of rejected candidates.
result PRFS produces the data needed to evaluate filter precision against actual market outcomes of rejected candidates, not against synthetic backtest reconstructions.
CEA augments reinforcement learning by generating counterfactual experiences.
problem Challenges in reinforcement learning, especially out-of-distribution and inefficient exploration.
method CEA uses variational autoencoders to model state transitions and introduces randomness for non-stationarity. It expands learning data through counterfactual inference.
result CEA outperforms SOTA algorithms in diverse environments.
New method for fair regression using optimal transport.
problem Learning fair regression models under counterfactual fairness constraints.
method Causal uncertainty view, optimal transport, post-processing method.
result High-probability fairness guarantees with O(n−1/3) decay. DCM uses diffusion models to answer causal queries from observational data.
problem Answering causal queries from observational data alone.
method Diffusion models to learn causal mechanisms and generate latent encodings.
result Significant improvements over existing methods for causal query answering.
Estimates sample size for subgroup analysis in randomized experiments.
problem Determining sample size for accurate subgroup analysis.
method Turns inference problem into simultaneous inference, calculates sample size based on confidence level and margin of error.
result Allows inversion of sample size to feasible number of treatment arms or partition complexity.
MCD automates counterfactual design searches for multi-modal tasks.
problem Designing for multi-objective goals and complex constraints.
method Model-agnostic counterfactual search method for multi-modal design modifications.
result MCD streamlines and automates counterfactual search, recommending effective design modifications.
New framework explains ML credit scoring models using counterfactual examples.
problem Explaining complex ML models in finance for credit scoring.
method Adversarial counterfactual examples for tabular data.
result Proposes a method to generate realistic counterfactual examples for tabular data.
The paper examines challenges in achieving fair predictions using causal counterfactuals.
problem Achieving fair predictions using causal counterfactuals in fairness settings.
method Analyzes the limitations of causal models in fairness settings and the challenges of selecting counterfactuals.
result Causal models that capture counterfactuals are outside the class commonly considered in fairness literature.
Model explanations based on pure observational data cannot compute the effects of features reliably, due to their inability to estimate how each factor alteration could affect the rest. We argue that explanations should be based on the causal model of the data and the derived intervened causal models, that represent th…
Proposes adversarial learning for counterfactual fairness in machine learning.
problem Ensuring fairness at the individual level by simulating counterfactual samples.
method Adversarial neural learning approach to infer counterfactual samples.
result Significant improvements in counterfactual fairness for both discrete and continuous settings.
Model improves CVR estimation in recommender systems by mitigating bias and overlooking causal relationships.
problem Data sparsity and sample selection bias in CVR estimation.
method Entire Space Counterfactual Multitask Model (ESCM2) incorporating counterfactual risk minimizer. result Significantly enhances recommendation performance by effectively mitigating bias and overlooking causal relationships.
Proposes CCME framework for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in complex distributions.
method Embeds conditional distributions into RKHS, develops meta-estimators for CCME.
result Establishes finite-sample convergence rates and double robustness for CCME estimators.
Estimates individual treatment effects using gradient interpolation and kernel smoothing.
problem Estimating individualized continuous treatment effects in observational data.
method Augment training data with independently sampled treatments and inferred counterfactual outcomes using gradient interpolation and kernel smoothing.
result Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods on counterfactual estimation error.
Before A/B testing online a new version of a recommender system, it is usual to perform some offline evaluations on historical data. We focus on evaluation methods that compute an estimator of the potential uplift in revenue that could generate this new technology. It helps to iterate faster and to avoid losing money b…
Extends OPE to evaluate policies using diverse logging data.
problem Evaluate policies using log data from different policies.
method Develops an OPE method for various logging policies.
result Method's predictions converge to true performance as sample size increases.
Proposes a method to improve treatment policies in data-scarce clinical settings.
problem Improving treatment policies in data-scarce clinical settings with unobserved confounding.
method Uses a causal mechanism to model the underlying generative process and augments counterfactual trajectories with source domain priors.
result Significantly improves treatment policy performance in a simulated sepsis treatment task.
Bayesian approach for modeling counterfactual distribution and off-policy evaluation.
problem Modeling the counterfactual distribution and off-policy evaluation.
method Bayesian conditional mean embeddings and novel Bayesian methods for estimating ultimate treatment effect.
result Quantifying epistemic uncertainty in the counterfactual distribution and off-policy evaluation.
Aims to create safe reinforcement learning policies by considering individual harm.
problem Optimal policies for a population may harm certain individuals.
method Formalizes individual harm, proposes a two-stage procedure, and establishes finite-sample properties.
result Learned policies maximize expected return while minimizing harm.
New RL method learns policies from few data using causal models.
problem Limited interaction data and heterogeneous patient responses.
method Exploits structural causal models to model state dynamics and counterfactual reasoning.
result Counterfactual RL algorithms converge to optimal value function.
CoDA augments data with counterfactuals from local causal structures.
problem Improving sample efficiency in RL with complex dynamic processes.
method Local causal models (LCMs) and Counterfactual Data Augmentation (CoDA).
result CoDA significantly improves RL agent performance in locally factored tasks.
The paper detects and identifies bias in data using a counterfactual approach.
problem Detecting and identifying bias in data, especially in medical image classification.
method A global explanation framework using the counterfactual approach to identify bias causing artifacts.
result Black frames significantly influence Convolutional Neural Network's prediction, changing benign to malignant.
Ex ante forecast outcomes should be interpreted as counterfactuals (potential histories), with errors as the spread between outcomes. Reapplying measurements of uncertainty about the estimation errors of the estimation errors of an estimation leads to branching counterfactuals. Such recursions of epistemic uncertainty …
COCOA improves credit assignment in reinforcement learning by measuring contributions to rewards.
problem Improving sample efficiency in reinforcement learning through better credit assignment methods.
method Counterfactual Contribution Analysis (COCOA) for precise credit assignment.
result COCOA achieves lower bias and variance compared to Hindsight Credit Assignment (HCA), improving reinforcement learning performance.
DoubleGen addresses bias in generative modeling of counterfactuals.
problem Bias in generative models for counterfactual outcomes.
method Doubly robust framework that modifies generative modeling training objectives to mitigate confounding and misspecification biases.
result Successfully addresses confounding bias even if only one auxiliary model is correct.
The paper introduces metrics to rank potential outcomes for better decision-making.
problem Optimal action selection in uncertain situations using causal reasoning.
method Introducing two new metrics: probabilities of potential outcome ranking (PoR) and probability of achieving the best potential outcome (PoB). Establishing identification theorems and deriving bounds for these metrics, and presenting estimation methods.
result The estimators' finite-sample properties and their application to a real-world dataset are demonstrated.