This manuscript introduces the idea of using Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) for the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) problem. Tapping into a rich existing literature, we show that DRO is a principled tool for counterfactual decision making. We also show that well-established solutions to the CRM probl…
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48 results for “counterfactual risk minimizer”
We present a Bayesian view of counterfactual risk minimization (CRM) for offline learning from logged bandit feedback. Using PAC-Bayesian analysis, we derive a new generalization bound for the truncated inverse propensity score estimator. We apply the bound to a class of Bayesian policies, which motivates a novel, pote…
The goal of counterfactual learning for statistical machine translation (SMT) is to optimize a target SMT system from logged data that consist of user feedback to translations that were predicted by another, historic SMT system. A challenge arises by the fact that risk-averse commercial SMT systems deterministically lo…
Counterfactual learning from observational data involves learning a classifier on an entire population based on data that is observed conditioned on a selection policy. This work considers this problem in an active setting, where the learner additionally has access to unlabeled examples and can choose to get a subset o…
Proposes a method to generate counterfactuals for ensemble models using entropic risk measures.
problem Finding a single counterfactual explanation for an ensemble of models.
method Incorporates entropic risk measure into a constrained optimization to generate counterfactuals valid for an adjustable fraction of models.
result Entropic risk measure allows generation of counterfactuals valid for all models in the ensemble under a limiting case.
We develop a learning principle and an efficient algorithm for batch learning from logged bandit feedback. This learning setting is ubiquitous in online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation), where an algorithm makes a prediction (e.g., ad ranking) for a given input (e.g., query) and observes bandit …
Model improves CVR estimation in recommender systems by mitigating bias and overlooking causal relationships.
problem Data sparsity and sample selection bias in CVR estimation.
method Entire Space Counterfactual Multitask Model (ESCM) incorporating counterfactual risk minimizer.
result Significantly enhances recommendation performance by effectively mitigating bias and overlooking causal relationships.
New method debiases counterfactual distributions using observational data.
problem Estimating counterfactual distributions under interventions without relying on observational data.
method Flow-matching approach to learn counterfactual distributions from observational data.
result Deconfounding flows outperform existing debiased counterfactual distribution estimators.
GANICE improves GAN-based causal inference by minimizing averaged Wasserstein risk.
problem Estimating interventional outcome distributions and quantiles in causal inference.
method GANICE uses extended Wasserstein distance and a cellwise critic to minimize averaged Wasserstein risk.
result GANICE achieves minimax optimality and consistently outperforms existing methods.
Paper addresses theoretical risks in neural MCCFR, proposing Robust Deep MCCFR for improved performance.
problem Theoretical risks in neural MCCFR, especially in large games.
method Adaptive framework with selective component deployment, including target networks, exploration, and variance-aware training.
result Robust Deep MCCFR achieves significant exploitability improvements in both Kuhn and Leduc Poker.
ADIGen: Automatic, Debiased, and Invariant Counterfactual Generation
problem Generative models for counterfactual outcomes
method ADIGen combines Riesz regression, causal invariance, and orthogonal statistical learning
result ADIGen controls counterfactual risk under general interventions
A method removes treatment-covariate dependence for counterfactual prediction without adversarial training.
problem Counterfactual prediction under assignment bias.
method Information-theoretic approach learning a stochastic representation Z to minimize mutual information with outcomes.
result The method performs favorably in likelihood, counterfactual error, and policy evaluation compared to adversarial baselines.
Develops a method for generating understandable and attainable counterfactual explanations for tabular data.
problem Ensuring counterfactual explanations are both interpretable and attainable for individuals.
method Combines quality measures with manifold learning techniques to generate counterfactuals that are both proximate and connected to regions of high data density.
result Proposes a framework (C-CHVAE) for generating attainable counterfactuals that are also interpretable.
Proposes a robust method for counterfactual classification.
problem Decision-making under hypothetical scenarios.
method Doubly-robust nonparametric estimator for counterfactual classification.
result Robust against nuisance model misspecification, can attain fast rates.
The paper tackles counterfactual learning for stochastic policies with continuous actions.
problem Learning stochastic policies with continuous actions from logged data.
method Introduces a joint kernel embedding of contexts and actions to model continuous actions, and uses proximal point algorithms and smooth estimators for optimization.
result Demonstrates the benefits of using proximal point algorithms and smooth estimators for counterfactual learning.
Unified framework for automatic debiased machine learning for various statistical parameters.
problem Inference on smooth functionals of nonparametric M-estimands.
method Unified framework using gradient, Hessian, and linear approximation; solves two risk minimization problems.
result Efficient autoDML estimators with double robustness and robustness to misspecification.
Post-hoc interpretability approaches have been proven to be powerful tools to generate explanations for the predictions made by a trained black-box model. However, they create the risk of having explanations that are a result of some artifacts learned by the model instead of actual knowledge from the data. This paper f…
Proposes Exogenous Matching for efficient counterfactual estimation.
problem Efficient estimation of counterfactual expressions in general settings.
method Transforms variance minimization into conditional distribution learning.
result Outperforms other importance sampling methods in counterfactual estimation.
Proposes minimal interventions over counterfactual explanations for algorithmic recourse.
problem Lack of actionable recommendations for algorithmic recourse.
method Causal reasoning to shift focus from explanations to recommendations.
result Minimal interventions provide more actionable recommendations for recourse.
New method for fair regression using optimal transport.
problem Learning fair regression models under counterfactual fairness constraints.
method Causal uncertainty view, optimal transport, post-processing method.
result High-probability fairness guarantees with decay.
Proposes a framework to explain KS deterioration in credit risk models.
problem Inconsistent and ad hoc diagnosis of KS decline in credit risk models.
method Counterfactual diagnostic framework attributing KS decline to sampling variability, portfolio composition, covariate shift, and residual deterioration.
result The proposed approach provides more interpretable and governance-relevant explanations than threshold-based review alone.
Differentially private synthetic control estimates treatment effects while protecting privacy.
problem Estimating treatment effects on sensitive data without revealing individual information.
method Combines non-private synthetic control and differentially private empirical risk minimization.
result Private synthetic control produces accurate predictions with minimal privacy cost.
A new framework for robust and coherent counterfactual transports.
problem Estimating joint distributions over counterfactual outcomes in personalized decision-making and treatment risk assessment.
method Counterfactual cocycles that use algebraic structure to provide coherence and identifiability guarantees, bridging the gap between bijective SCMs and OT methods.
result Counterfactual cocycles provide state-of-the-art performance and noise-robustness across synthetic benchmarks and a real-world study.
Proposes a new method for estimating counterfactual treatment effects.
problem Uncertainty in identifying causal mechanisms from observational data.
method Introduces a parameterized family of causal mechanisms that generalize Gumbel-max, trained to minimize counterfactual effect variance.
result Trained mechanisms yield lower variance estimates of counterfactual treatment effects.
The use of machine learning systems to support decision making in healthcare raises questions as to what extent these systems may introduce or exacerbate disparities in care for historically underrepresented and mistreated groups, due to biases implicitly embedded in observational data in electronic health records. To …
Self-Distilled Disentanglement improves counterfactual predictions by separating variables.
problem Improving counterfactual predictions in the presence of confounders and unobserved variables.
method Self-Distilled Disentanglement framework based on information theory.
result Effective counterfactual inference in synthetic and real-world datasets.
Counterfactual learning is a natural scenario to improve web-based machine translation services by offline learning from feedback logged during user interactions. In order to avoid the risk of showing inferior translations to users, in such scenarios mostly exploration-free deterministic logging policies are in place. …
Counterfactual post-hoc interpretability approaches have been proven to be useful tools to generate explanations for the predictions of a trained blackbox classifier. However, the assumptions they make about the data and the classifier make them unreliable in many contexts. In this paper, we discuss three desirable pro…
Develops optimal decision-making framework for uncertain counterfactuals.
problem Ensuring reliability of predictions in high-stakes decisions.
method Policy-Coupled Risk-Averse Conformal Prediction (PC-RACP).
result Optimal prediction sets for counterfactual decisions with valid coverage.
This paper introduces collective counterfactual explanations for groups of instances in classification models.
problem Understanding how classification models make decisions for groups of instances.
method Novel Mathematical Optimization models to find collective counterfactual explanations that minimize total perturbation cost.
result Detects critical features for entire dataset classification and handles outliers.
Algorithmic risk assessments are increasingly used to help humans make decisions in high-stakes settings, such as medicine, criminal justice and education. In each of these cases, the purpose of the risk assessment tool is to inform actions, such as medical treatments or release conditions, often with the aim of reduci…
ACE improves counterfactual explanations with fewer model queries.
problem Inefficient sampling for counterfactual explanations in machine learning models.
method Adaptive sampling combining Bayesian estimation and stochastic optimization.
result ACE achieves superior evaluation efficiency compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Proposes a method to generate realistic counterfactuals by learning relationships.
problem Counterfactual explanations often ignore intrinsic relationships between data attributes.
method Uses a variational auto-encoder to learn relationships and perturb the latent space.
result The model preserves relationships and generates realistic counterfactuals.
New method improves counterfactual distribution learning for high-dimensional outcomes.
problem Counterfactual distribution learning for high-dimensional outcomes with concentrated structure.
method Geometry-adaptive diffusion-guided smoothing estimators combining causal nuisance adjustment and local outcome geometry.
result Geometry-adaptive methods show steeper error decay in semi-synthetic experiments.
Introduces PCG for better counterfactual explanations in vision models.
problem Ambiguity in latent-space optimization methods for counterfactual explanations.
method Constructs counterfactuals by tracing geodesics under a perceptually Riemannian metric.
result PCG outperforms baselines and reveals hidden failure modes.
A new method uses counterfactual learning to improve recommendation system evaluation.
problem Inconsistent results in recommender systems due to exposure mechanisms.
method Proposes a minimax empirical risk formulation with an adversarial game to account for exposure.
result Shows improved learning bounds and effectiveness over various recommendation settings.
Estimation of importance sampling weights for off-policy evaluation of contextual bandits often results in imbalance - a mismatch between the desired and the actual distribution of state-action pairs after weighting. In this work we present balanced off-policy evaluation (B-OPE), a generic method for estimating weights…
Generative deep learning creates counterfactual states to explain Atari agent decisions.
problem Difficulty in explaining deep reinforcement learning agent decisions to humans.
method Generative deep learning to create counterfactual states.
result Counterfactual states help non-expert participants understand Atari agent decision-making.
Develops methods to improve demand counterfactuals from imperfect proxies.
problem Imperfect proxies in demand models lead to biased counterfactuals and invalid inference.
method Practical toolkit for market-level and individual data, requiring minimal computation.
result Improves substitution prediction and counterfactual performance.
A new runtime for AI agents calculates risks in real-time.
problem Managing risks and liabilities in autonomous AI actions.
method A time-consistent counterfactual actuarial layer with explicit underwriting boundaries.
result Establishes a well-defined toll and guarantees executed-action budgets.
Proposes TNCM-VAE for generating causal financial time series.
problem Lack of causal reasoning in market generators.
method Combines VAE with structural causal models, enforcing causal constraints through DAGs and using causal Wasserstein distance.
result Superior performance in counterfactual probability estimation, L1 distances as low as 0.03-0.10.
DECE visualizes machine learning decisions with counterfactual explanations.
problem Making machine learning models transparent and explainable.
method Interactive visualization system supporting counterfactual explanations at instance- and subgroup-levels.
result DECE enables users to explore and understand machine learning model decisions.
Genie: An Open Box Counterfactual Policy Estimator for Optimizing Sponsored Search Marketplacestat.ML
In this paper, we propose an offline counterfactual policy estimation framework called Genie to optimize Sponsored Search Marketplace. Genie employs an open box simulation engine with click calibration model to compute the KPI impact of any modification to the system. From the experimental results on Bing traffic, we s…
G-Net uses deep learning for complex counterfactual outcome prediction.
problem Estimating counterfactual outcomes under dynamic treatment strategies.
method G-Net is a sequential deep learning framework for G-computation.
result G-Net can handle complex temporal data and provide accurate treatment effects.
Unified framework for counterfactual survival analysis improves treatment effect estimation.
problem Limited methods for counterfactual inference with survival outcomes.
method Unified framework for survival outcomes, nonparametric hazard ratio metric.
result Significantly outperforms alternatives in survival-outcome prediction and treatment-effect estimation.
Paper detects biases in medical imaging ML models using counterfactual analysis.
problem Bias in medical imaging ML models negatively impacts generalization performance.
method Counterfactual invariance framework combining conditional latent diffusion models and statistical hypothesis testing.
result The method identifies and quantifies biases without direct access to counterfactual data.
New method predicts outcomes even when some factors are not used in models.
problem Predicting outcomes under runtime confounding where some factors are unavailable.
method Doubly-robust procedure for counterfactual predictions.
result Method often outperforms competing approaches in runtime confounding.
New method for valid prediction intervals in counterfactual outcomes with runtime confounding.
problem Valid prediction intervals for counterfactual outcomes under runtime confounding.
method Debiased machine learning framework grounded in semiparametric efficiency theory.
result Prediction intervals achieve desired coverage rates with faster convergence compared to standard methods.