Counterfactual thinking describes a psychological phenomenon that people re-infer the possible results with different solutions about things that have already happened. It helps people to gain more experience from mistakes and thus to perform better in similar future tasks. This paper investigates the counterfactual th…
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48 results for “counterfactual regret”
RLCFR improves CFR's generalization in imperfect information games.
problem Improving CFR's performance in large-scale, imperfect information games.
method RLCFR integrates CFR with deep reinforcement learning to update strategies dynamically.
result RLCFR significantly enhances CFR's generalization ability in various games.
The CFR framework has been a powerful tool for solving large-scale extensive-form games in practice. However, the theoretical rate at which past CFR-based algorithms converge to the Nash equilibrium is on the order of , where is the number of iterations. In contrast, first-order methods can be used to …
The paper tackles optimal policy learning with asymmetric counterfactual utilities in healthcare decisions.
problem Learning optimal policies from observed data with asymmetric counterfactual utilities.
method The approach involves identifying and minimizing the maximum expected utility loss using statistical decision theory and solving intermediate classification problems.
result One can learn minimax loss decision rules from observed data.
Dual behavior policy improves reinforcement learning across various environments.
problem Challenges in reinforcement learning with inconsistent or unknown environments.
method Dual, advantage-based behavior policy using counterfactual regret minimization.
result Demonstrated improved performance over baseline models in diverse environments.
Paper addresses theoretical risks in neural MCCFR, proposing Robust Deep MCCFR for improved performance.
problem Theoretical risks in neural MCCFR, especially in large games.
method Adaptive framework with selective component deployment, including target networks, exploration, and variance-aware training.
result Robust Deep MCCFR achieves significant exploitability improvements in both Kuhn and Leduc Poker.
Algorithm improves reinforcement learning in MDPs with partial order policies.
problem Improving reinforcement learning in MDPs with partial order policies.
method Epoch-based reinforcement learning algorithm leveraging a partial order over policy class.
result Achieves an regret bound, independent of state and action space sizes.
Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR) has found success in settings like poker which have both terminal states and perfect recall. We seek to understand how to relax these requirements. As a first step, we introduce a simple algorithm, local no-regret learning (LONR), which uses a Q-learning-like update rule to allo…
We study the adversarial multi-armed bandit problem where partial observations are available and where, in addition to the loss incurred for each action, a \emph{switching cost} is incurred for shifting to a new action. All previously known results incur a factor proportional to the independence number of the feedback …
Study on learning strategies in adaptive Markov games with policy regret as metric.
problem Learning in dynamic Markov games with adaptive opponents is challenging.
method Introduced policy regret as a new learning metric and developed algorithms for consistent adaptive adversaries.
result Achieved policy regret against certain adaptive adversaries.
Lazy-CFR: fast and near optimal regret minimization for extensive games with imperfect informationcs.LG
Counterfactual regret minimization (CFR) is the most popular algorithm on solving two-player zero-sum extensive games with imperfect information and achieves state-of-the-art performance in practice. However, the performance of CFR is not fully understood, since empirical results on the regret are much better than the …
ESCHER avoids importance sampling to estimate regret in large games.
problem Estimating Nash equilibria in large games with high variance.
method Computes a history value function to estimate regret without importance sampling.
result ESCHER reduces regret estimation variance significantly compared to existing methods.
AdaptOn achieves logarithmic regret in adaptive control of unknown partially observable linear systems.
problem Adaptive control in partially observable linear dynamical systems.
method AdaptOn algorithm that estimates system dynamics through online learning and gradient descent.
result AdaptOn achieves a logarithmic regret bound of polylog(T) after T steps.
Improved analysis shows Maillard sampling achieves optimal regret bounds.
problem Optimal regret bounds for K-armed bandit problem.
method Improved analysis of Maillard sampling (MS) to achieve asymptotical optimality and minimax regret bound.
result MS achieves both asymptotical optimality and minimax regret bound of √(KT log T).
R package for counterfactual explanation methods.
problem Lack of unified interfaces for counterfactual explanation methods.
method Developed a modular R6-based interface for three existing counterfactual methods and proposed extensions.
result Comparison of implemented methods' quality and runtime behavior.
A new Thompson Sampling framework handles uncertainty by imputing missing data.
problem Handling uncertainty in contextual bandit problems.
method Generative model to impute missing outcomes, fit policy, and select actions.
result Established a state-of-the-art regret bound that depends on generative model quality.
Post-hoc explanations of machine learning models are crucial for people to understand and act on algorithmic predictions. An intriguing class of explanations is through counterfactuals, hypothetical examples that show people how to obtain a different prediction. We posit that effective counterfactual explanations shoul…
New method minimizes decision errors in large treatment spaces.
problem Improving decision-making in large treatment spaces with biased observational data.
method Loss minimizes classification error of actions in large action space.
result Proves improved decision-making performance in large combinatorial action spaces.
New decision support systems use prediction sets to help experts update their predictions, improving performance.
problem Challenges in explaining and updating predictions from decision support systems.
method Developed a methodology leveraging nested structure of prediction sets and counterfactual monotonicity to improve performance.
result Limiting experts' agency leads to better performance in decision support systems based on prediction sets.
DeDUCE efficiently generates realistic counterfactuals for image classifiers.
problem Generating accurate counterfactual explanations for large image classifiers.
method Developed a new algorithm using spectral normalization to efficiently generate counterfactuals.
result Our algorithm consistently produces counterfactuals closer to the original inputs with comparable realism.
We establish a foundation for multivariate counterfactual identification using dynamic optimal transport.
problem Addressing the open question of counterfactual identification for high-dimensional multivariate outcomes from observational data.
method Establish a foundation for multivariate counterfactual identification using continuous-time flows, including non-Markovian settings, with tools from dynamic optimal transport.
result Characterise the conditions under which flow matching yields a unique, monotone, and rank-preserving counterfactual transport map, ensuring consistent inference.
A new framework for robust and coherent counterfactual transports.
problem Estimating joint distributions over counterfactual outcomes in personalized decision-making and treatment risk assessment.
method Counterfactual cocycles that use algebraic structure to provide coherence and identifiability guarantees, bridging the gap between bijective SCMs and OT methods.
result Counterfactual cocycles provide state-of-the-art performance and noise-robustness across synthetic benchmarks and a real-world study.
New approach uses 'forward-looking' counterfactuals for treatment choice.
problem Using traditional 'retrospective' counterfactuals in treatment choice leads to counterintuitive results.
method Introduces 'counterfactual treatment choice' for forward-looking counterfactuals.
result Mismatches between interventional and forward-looking counterfactuals can lead to counterintuitive results.
The paper analyzes counterfactual invariance and its relation to conditional independence.
problem Understanding the relationship between counterfactual invariance and conditional independence.
method Theoretical analysis of existing definitions, graphical implications, and mathematical proofs.
result Counterfactual invariance implies conditional independence, but not the other way around.
New framework improves counterfactual predictions using causal inference.
problem Challenges in predicting counterfactual outcomes with limited covariates and high-dimensional outcomes.
method Variational Bayesian causal inference framework for counterfactual generative modeling.
result Framework encourages disentangled exogenous noise and correct identification of causal effects.
Counterfactual data augmentations may not ensure OOD robustness if performed by a context-guessing machine.
problem Deep learning models lack out-of-distribution robustness due to reliance on spurious features.
method Theoretical analysis and demonstration of counterfactual data augmentations performed by a context-guessing machine.
result Counterfactual data augmentations by a context-guessing machine do not lead to robust OOD classifiers.
New method improves model reconstruction using counterfactuals and polytope theory.
problem Reconstructing models with minimal input changes and avoiding decision boundary shifts.
method Using polytope theory to derive loss functions that treat counterfactuals differently from ordinary instances.
result Improves fidelity between target and surrogate model predictions on multiple datasets.
New method debiases counterfactual distributions using observational data.
problem Estimating counterfactual distributions under interventions without relying on observational data.
method Flow-matching approach to learn counterfactual distributions from observational data.
result Deconfounding flows outperform existing debiased counterfactual distribution estimators.
DeepBC method computes backtracking counterfactuals in deep causal models.
problem Computing valid counterfactuals in complex causal models.
method DeepBC method using Langevin Monte Carlo or constrained optimization.
result DeepBC provides causally compliant, versatile, and modular counterfactuals.
Proposes a method to generate counterfactuals for ensemble models using entropic risk measures.
problem Finding a single counterfactual explanation for an ensemble of models.
method Incorporates entropic risk measure into a constrained optimization to generate counterfactuals valid for an adjustable fraction of models.
result Entropic risk measure allows generation of counterfactuals valid for all models in the ensemble under a limiting case.
We define and compute plausible counterfactual explanations using density constraints.
problem Efficiently compute plausible counterfactual explanations for machine learning models.
method Propose and study a formal definition of plausible counterfactual explanations, use density estimators, and introduce convex density constraints.
result Convex density constraints ensure plausible and feasible counterfactual explanations.
Counterfactual explanations can be obtained by identifying the smallest change made to a feature vector to qualitatively influence a prediction; for example, from 'loan rejected' to 'awarded' or from 'high risk of cardiovascular disease' to 'low risk'. Previous approaches often emphasized that counterfactuals should be…
New method warns of counterfactual non-identifiability in DSCMs.
problem Counterfactual inference from observational data is non-identifiable even without unobserved confounding.
method Prove counterfactual identifiability for monotonic generation mechanisms, provide impossibility result for general mechanisms, propose method for estimating worst-case errors.
result Non-identifiability of counterfactual inference from observational data, even in absence of unobserved confounding.
Develops methods for finding counterfactual explanations in sequential decision making.
problem Finding counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making processes.
method Formal characterization of sequential actions and states using Markov decision processes and Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Introduces a polynomial time algorithm based on dynamic programming.
result Algorithm finds optimal counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making.
New methods create counterfactuals for image regression models.
problem Creating interpretable explanations for regression models in images.
method Two methods using diffusion-based generative models to create counterfactuals.
result Diffusion-based methods produce realistic, semantic, and smooth counterfactuals.
Simulating counterfactualsstat.ML
Algorithm simulates counterfactuals for fairness analysis.
problem Analytical intractability of counterfactuals in conditional distributions.
method Proposes an algorithm using particle filtering for discrete and continuous variables.
result Asymptotically valid inference for counterfactuals.
In this paper, we study counterfactual fairness in text classification, which asks the question: How would the prediction change if the sensitive attribute referenced in the example were different? Toxicity classifiers demonstrate a counterfactual fairness issue by predicting that "Some people are gay" is toxic while "…
This study analyzes counterfactual explanations for student success models.
problem Improving trust in machine learning models for student success prediction.
method Comparison of counterfactual generation methods (WhatIf, Multi-Objective, Nearest Instance) for student success prediction models.
result WhatIf Counterfactual Explanations are more effective for student success prediction models.
New approach to counterfactual reasoning avoids demographic interventions.
problem Limitations of traditional counterfactual reasoning in AI systems.
method Backtracking counterfactual approach instead of interventional.
result Allows addressing social concerns without demographic interventions.
Counterfactual fairness not equivalent to demographic parity, finds study.
problem Equivalence between causal and probabilistic concepts in fairness metrics.
method Close examination of recent claim about counterfactual fairness.
result Counterfactual fairness is not equivalent to demographic parity.
New approach to counterfactual reasoning in AI and psychology.
problem Challenges to conventional counterfactual reasoning in AI and psychology.
method Formalizes a backtracking approach to counterfactuals within the SCM framework.
result First general account and algorithmisation of backtracking counterfactuals.
CVIB uses information theory to learn counterfactuals from MNAR data without RCTs.
problem Debiasing learning from missing-not-at-random (MNAR) data in recommendation systems.
method CVIB, a variational information bottleneck, separates task-aware mutual information into factual and counterfactual parts.
result CVIB significantly enhances both shallow and deep models in recommendation systems.
Counterfactuals help compare different scenarios in CI and XAI.
problem Comparing how counterfactuals are used in causal inference and explainable AI.
method Formal definition and comparison of counterfactuals in CI and XAI.
result Identified opportunities for cross-fertilization between CI and XAI.
The paper connects counterfactual fairness to robust prediction and group fairness using causal context.
problem The challenge of ensuring fairness in AI systems when counterfactuals cannot be directly observed.
method Using causal context to bridge counterfactual fairness, robust prediction, and group fairness.
result Counterfactual fairness is equivalent to group fairness metrics in specific contexts.
Adversarial CBO optimizes under interventions by adversaries and non-stationarities.
problem Optimizing in the presence of adversaries and non-stationary factors.
method Formalizes CBO as ACBO, introduces CBO-MW algorithm combining online learning and causal modeling.
result First algorithm with bounded regret for ACBO, achieving superior performance in synthetic and real-world environments.
ARFs generate plausible counterfactuals for models, improving model understanding.
problem Creating realistic counterfactuals for model analysis.
method Adversarial Random Forests (ARFs) for generating plausible counterfactuals.
result ARFs efficiently generate plausible counterfactuals in a model-agnostic way.
Study uses artificial counterfactuals to show lockdowns reduced US case and death counts.
problem Impact of lockdowns on US case and death counts during the pandemic.
method Artificial counterfactual approach comparing states with and without lockdowns.
result Average two times more cases would have occurred without lockdowns.
EXOC framework uses auxiliary variables for counterfactual fairness in machine learning.
problem Balancing fairness and predictive accuracy in models with sensitive attributes.
method EXOC framework uses auxiliary variables to define an auxiliary node and a control node for counterfactual fairness.
result EXOC framework outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in achieving counterfactual fairness.