We consider Bayesian inference when only a limited number of noisy log-likelihood evaluations can be obtained. This occurs for example when complex simulator-based statistical models are fitted to data, and synthetic likelihood (SL) method is used to form the noisy log-likelihood estimates using computationally costly …
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48 results for “costly simulations”
Bayesian optimization tackles mixed discrete-continuous problems with Gaussian processes.
problem Optimizing problems with both discrete and continuous variables using costly simulations.
method Relaxing discrete variables into continuous latent variables, using Bayesian optimization, and incorporating compatibility constraints with Lagrangians.
result Comparative analysis of different mixed Bayesian optimization approaches.
Lazier ABCstat.CO
ABC algorithms involve a large number of simulations from the model of interest, which can be very computationally costly. This paper summarises the lazy ABC algorithm of Prangle (2015), which reduces the computational demand by abandoning many unpromising simulations before completion. By using a random stopping decis…
Learning To Simulatecs.LG
Simulation is a useful tool in situations where training data for machine learning models is costly to annotate or even hard to acquire. In this work, we propose a reinforcement learning-based method for automatically adjusting the parameters of any (non-differentiable) simulator, thereby controlling the distribution o…
Compressed particle methods for expensive models with application in Astronomy and Remote Sensingcs.CE
Novel method reduces costly model evaluations in inference problems.
problem Efficiently approximating complex, costly model integrals.
method Compressed Monte Carlo (CMC) scheme for selecting model evaluations.
result Empirical evidence of method's performance in astronomy and remote sensing.
SDE Matching: Scalable and Simulation-Free Training of Latent Stochastic Differential Equationsstat.ML
SDE Matching eliminates simulation for training Latent SDEs, achieving similar performance.
problem Training Latent SDEs with adjoint sensitivity methods is computationally expensive and limited.
method SDE Matching, inspired by Score- and Flow Matching, eliminates simulation for training Latent SDEs.
result SDE Matching achieves performance comparable to adjoint sensitivity methods while reducing computational complexity.
The paper proposes a method to learn from both simulation and real-world data.
problem Training autonomous systems in simulation and applying them to real-world environments.
method Balancing samples from simulation and real-world data using a replay buffer.
result The method achieves better performance in real-world tasks compared to training only in simulation.
New method speeds up Bayesian inference for complex simulators.
problem Challenges in Bayesian inference for complex stochastic simulators with intractable likelihood functions.
method Optimization Monte Carlo framework reformulated as deterministic optimization problems with gradient-based methods.
result Accurate posterior inference with reduced runtimes compared to existing methods.
Benchmark of Likelihood-Free Inference Methods based on Neural and Optimal Transport Approachesstat.ME
This study benchmarks likelihood-free inference methods for models with heavy-tailed or discrete data.
problem Comparing likelihood-free inference methods for models with structural features like heavy-tails or discreteness.
method Four approaches: MLE, NBE, EOT, and AW-NBE are evaluated using simulations.
result The choice of evaluation tools is crucial for models with extremes and discrete data.
ConfEviSurrogate improves surrogate model accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in surrogate models hinders reliable analysis.
method Introduces ConfEviSurrogate, a novel model that learns evidential distributions, separates uncertainty sources, and provides reliable prediction intervals.
result Demonstrates accurate predictions and robust uncertainty estimates in various simulations.
PriorGuide adapts diffusion models to new priors at test time.
problem Limited applicability of prior distributions in diffusion-based inference.
method PriorGuide uses a guidance approximation to adapt diffusion models to new priors at test time.
result Enhances the versatility of pre-trained inference models by allowing flexible adaptation to new priors.
New STH distance finds patterns in event timeseries without resampling.
problem Lack of efficient analysis methods for event and state timeseries.
method Define STE-ts, propose STH, leveraging both time and state duration.
result Improved precision and computation time compared to resampled metrics.
Hybrid analytic and machine-learned baryonic property insertion into galactic dark matter haloesastro-ph.GA
Hybrid model speeds up galaxy simulations by incorporating baryonic properties.
problem Inaccurate baryonic properties in dark matter-only simulations.
method Combining analytic models and machine learning for faster, more accurate simulations.
result Hybrid model outperforms machine learning alone for some baryonic properties.
Meta-materials simulation sped up with energy surrogates.
problem Challenging simulation of complex meta-materials due to high-fidelity PDEs.
method Learned component-level surrogates using neural networks to model stored potential energy.
result Surrogates enable accurate macroscopic behavior simulation without full structure simulation.
Can Large Language Models Trade? Testing Financial Theories with LLM Agents in Market Simulationsq-fin.CP
LLMs simulate financial markets, revealing consistent trading strategies and market dynamics.
problem Testing financial theories with AI trading agents.
method Simulated stock market with LLMs using a persistent order book and varied strategies.
result LLMs can simulate different trading strategies and market dynamics.
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a method for Bayesian inference when the likelihood is unavailable but simulating from the model is possible. However, many ABC algorithms require a large number of simulations, which can be costly. To reduce the computational cost, Bayesian optimisation (BO) and surrogate mode…
We analyze a simple asset transfer model in which the transfer amount is a fixed fraction of the giver's wealth. The model is analyzed in a new way by Laplace transforming the master equation, solving it analytically and numerically for the steady-state distribution, and exploring the solutions for various values o…
Validates composite systems using discrepancy propagation.
problem Validation of industrial systems with costly real-world tests.
method Propagates bounds on distributional discrepancy measures through a composite system.
result Derives upper bound on real system failure probability from simulations.
New algorithms reduce costly feature collection in bandits.
problem Costly feature collection in contextual bandits.
method Proposes algorithms avoiding unnecessary feature collection.
result Strong regret guarantees maintained with reduced feature collection.
This paper studies parallelization schemes for stochastic Vector Quantization algorithms in order to obtain time speed-ups using distributed resources. We show that the most intuitive parallelization scheme does not lead to better performances than the sequential algorithm. Another distributed scheme is therefore intro…
Neural network factorization speeds up Vlasov equation simulations.
problem Accelerating simulations of collisionless plasma described by the Vlasov equation.
method Data-driven low-rank matrix factorization using convolutional neural networks.
result The method outperforms standard linear algebra at inference time.
Accurate model selection is a fundamental requirement for statistical analysis. In many real-world applications of graphical modelling, correct model structure identification is the ultimate objective. Standard model validation procedures such as information theoretic scores and cross validation have demonstrated poor …
metabeta uses neural networks to speed up Bayesian mixed-effects regression.
problem Bayesian mixed-effects regression is computationally expensive.
method metabeta is a neural network model that pre-trains to estimate posterior distributions.
result metabeta achieves comparable performance to MCMC at a fraction of the time.
Adversarial RL recovers agent rewards from financial market data simulations.
problem Recovering agent rewards in volatile financial markets with unknown dynamics.
method Adversarial inverse reinforcement learning in latent space simulations.
result Adversarial RL can robustly recover agent rewards from latent space representations of real market data.
AutoSimulate efficiently optimizes synthetic data generation.
problem Optimizing synthetic data generation for machine learning.
method Differentiable approximation of the objective function for efficient optimization.
result Significantly faster (up to 50x) and more efficient (up to 30x) synthetic data generation.
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is typically used when the likelihood is either unavailable or intractable but where data can be simulated under different parameter settings using a forward model. Despite the recent interest in ABC, high-dimensional data and costly simulations still remain a bottleneck in some a…
On the Transfer of Inductive Bias from Simulation to the Real World: a New Disentanglement Datasetstat.ML
Learning meaningful and compact representations with disentangled semantic aspects is considered to be of key importance in representation learning. Since real-world data is notoriously costly to collect, many recent state-of-the-art disentanglement models have heavily relied on synthetic toy data-sets. In this paper, …
New method uses neural networks to efficiently approximate Bayesian inference for complex models.
problem Efficiently approximating Bayesian inference for complex models with varying temperatures.
method Fully amortized neural posterior estimator trained on a single forward pass.
result Achieves competitive posterior approximations across various temperatures and benchmarks.
Optimizes data labeling for causal effect estimation with missing outcomes.
problem Estimating causal effects with missing outcome data and budget constraints.
method Optimizes batch sampling probability to minimize variance of causal inference estimator.
result Achieves lower mean-squared error with fewer labeled data points.
New method speeds up inference for tall data models.
problem Inference for complex models with tall data.
method Diffusion posterior sampling for simulation-based inference.
result Significantly faster and more stable inference.
Multi-StyleGAN simulates live cell microscopy imagery.
problem Costly and complex live cell experiments.
method Generative adversarial network (GAN) synthesizing multi-domain time-lapse images.
result Captures biophysical factors and time dependencies in cell imagery.
Efficient methods estimate concordance probability for big data.
problem Efficiently calculating concordance probability in large datasets.
method Proposes two estimation methods for discrete and continuous settings.
result Estimators are accurate and computationally efficient.
Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithms have achieved great success on many challenging benchmarks (e.g., Computer Go). However, they generally require a large number of rollouts, making their applications costly. Furthermore, it is also extremely challenging to parallelize MCTS due to its inherent sequential nature:…
Paper proposes a machine learning framework for VLSI mask optimization.
problem Costly VLSI mask optimization due to complex processes.
method Heterogeneous OPC framework using machine learning.
result Demonstrates efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed framework.
Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation using Newton's method in nonlinear state space models (SSMs) is a challenging problem due to the analytical intractability of the log-likelihood and its gradient and Hessian. We estimate the gradient and Hessian using Fisher's identity in combination with a smoothing algorithm. We exp…
Regulations impose idiosyncratic capital and funding costs for holding derivatives. Capital requirements are costly because derivatives desks are risky businesses; funding is costly in part because regulations increase the minimum funding tenor. Idiosyncratic costs mean no single measure makes derivatives martingales f…
Validation of Approximate Likelihood and Emulator Models for Computationally Intensive Simulationsstat.ME
Complex phenomena in engineering and the sciences are often modeled with computationally intensive feed-forward simulations for which a tractable analytic likelihood does not exist. In these cases, it is sometimes necessary to estimate an approximate likelihood or fit a fast emulator model for efficient statistical inf…
In this paper, we introduce the first method that (1) can complete kernel matrices with completely missing rows and columns as opposed to individual missing kernel values, (2) does not require any of the kernels to be complete a priori, and (3) can tackle non-linear kernels. These aspects are necessary in practical app…
Physics-constrained GP predicts material states under shockwave conditions.
problem Predicting material states under extreme shockwave conditions.
method Physics-constrained Gaussian Process regression with Rankine-Hugoniot constraints.
result Reproduces Hugoniot curves with satisfactory accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
Active learning speeds up antibody affinity prediction.
problem Challenging to identify mutations enhancing antibody affinity.
method Iterative proposal of promising sequences for simulation.
result Accelerates search for improved binders.
Bridging the Gap Between Layout Pattern Sampling and Hotspot Detection via Batch Active Learningcs.LG
Layout hotpot detection is one of the main steps in modern VLSI design. A typical hotspot detection flow is extremely time consuming due to the computationally expensive mask optimization and lithographic simulation. Recent researches try to facilitate the procedure with a reduced flow including feature extraction, tra…
Achieving faster execution with shorter compilation time can enable further diversity and innovation in neural networks. However, the current paradigm of executing neural networks either relies on hand-optimized libraries, traditional compilation heuristics, or very recently, simulated annealing and genetic algorithms.…
Paper proposes efficient algorithms for bandit problems with costly sampling.
problem Maximizing expectation function over a finite set with high sampling cost.
method Proposes naive and adaptive stochastic bandit algorithms for PAC solution.
result Adaptive algorithm outperforms naive in terms of number of samples.
A novel RL approach learns robotic manipulation without human demonstrations.
problem Learning robotic manipulation policies efficiently and effectively.
method Introducing simulated locomotion demonstration rewards (SLDRs) to enable RL learning.
result The approach achieves higher success rates and faster learning compared to alternatives.
Transferable Generative Models Bridge Femtosecond to Nanosecond Time-Step Molecular Dynamicsphysics.chem-ph
Generative models accelerate molecular dynamics by four orders of magnitude.
problem Femtosecond time steps limit access to slow molecular processes.
method Deep generative modeling framework that accelerates sampling.
result Quantitative characterization of equilibrium ensembles and dynamical relaxation processes.
The personalization of treatment via bio-markers and other risk categories has drawn increasing interest among clinical scientists. Personalized treatment strategies can be learned using data from clinical trials, but such trials are very costly to run. This paper explores the use of active learning techniques to desig…
Paper develops a method to create accurate emulators of expensive computer codes.
problem High cost and complexity of running complex computer codes.
method Active learning with Gaussian processes to construct emulators.
result Accurate and compact emulators created for expensive codes.
Generative AI predicts Arctic sea ice dynamics over decades.
problem Reproducing realistic sea ice dynamics from days to decades is computationally challenging.
method Introduced GenSIM, a generative AI model trained on 20 years of sea-ice-ocean simulation data.
result Generative AI predicts realistic sea ice evolution for 30 years, capturing long-term trends and physical consistency.