We compare observed corporate cumulative default probabilities to those calculated using a stochastic model based on an extension of the work of Black and Cox and find that corporations default as if via diffusive dynamics. The model, based on a contingent-claims analysis of corporate capital structure, is easily calib…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “corporate defaults”
Measuring the corporate default risk is broadly important in economics and finance. Quantitative methods have been developed to predictively assess future corporate default probabilities. However, as a more difficult yet crucial problem, evaluating the uncertainties associated with the default predictions remains littl…
New method estimates corporate default probabilities using indirect data.
problem Lack of direct default rate data for corporate companies.
method Modeling default probability dynamics using Bank of Russia overdue debt data.
result Validated method produces trustworthy default probability series.
According to theoretical models of valuing risky corporate securities, risk of default is primary component in overall yield spread. However, sizable empirical literature considers it otherwise by giving more importance to non-default risk factors. Current study empirically attempts to provide relative solution to this…
Temporal Coarse-Graining of Latent Default-Probability Paths Generates Effective Default Correlationq-fin.ST
Temporal coarse-graining of latent default paths explains effective correlation in corporate defaults.
problem Understanding effective default correlation in corporate defaults.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths, applied to corporate default-count data.
result Temporal coarse-graining provides a scale-consistent baseline that improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
A new method estimates corporate bond defaults in financial networks efficiently.
problem Challenges in valuing corporate bonds in interconnected financial systems.
method Bi-Level Importance Sampling with Splitting
result The method efficiently estimates rare default events in financial networks.
We study the pricing problem for corporate defaultable bond from the viewpoint of the investors outside the firm that could not exactly know about the information of the firm. We consider the problem for pricing of corporate defaultable bond in the case when the firm value is only declared in some fixed discrete time a…
This paper develops a two-dimensional structural framework for valuing credit default swaps and corporate bonds in the presence of default contagion. Modelling the values of related firms as correlated geometric Brownian motions with exponential default barriers, analytical formulae are obtained for both credit default…
Paper forecasts corporate default risk using Particle MCMC with expert opinions.
problem Predicting corporate default risk in the U.S. market.
method Bayesian approach with Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Particle MCMC) algorithm.
result Volatility and mean reversion of hidden factor significantly impact default intensities.
The paper uses daily bond price data to estimate corporate default spreads, improving credit risk assessment.
problem Outdated credit risk information from quarterly accounting items.
method Adapting classic yield curve estimation methods to corporate bonds, using Bayesian estimation.
result High-frequency credit risk proxy via corporate default spreads improves model stability and prediction uncertainty.
Corporate defaults may be triggered by some major market news or events such as financial crises or collapses of major banks or financial institutions. With a view to develop a more realistic model for credit risk analysis, we introduce a new type of reduced-form intensity-based model that can incorporate the impacts o…
We compare two models of corporate default by calculating the Jeffreys-Kullback-Leibler divergence between their predicted default probabilities when asset correlations are either high or low. Our main results show that the divergence between the two models increases in highly correlated, volatile, and large markets, b…
This article deals with the problem of optimal allocation of capital to corporate bonds in fixed income portfolios when there is the possibility of correlated defaults. Using a multivariate normal Copula function for the joint default probabilities we show that retaining the first few moments of the portfolio default l…
Model for corporate bond pricing with credit rating migration, solving a double free boundary problem.
problem Corporate bond pricing with credit rating migration risks.
method Established a pricing model as a double free boundary problem, proving existence, uniqueness, and regularity of the solution.
result Two free boundaries are shown to be smooth and converge to a traveling wave solution as time goes to infinity.
Corporate Bond Yield Curve Modeling: A Rating-Based Regime-Switching Generalized CIR Approachq-fin.PR
Develops a new model to better predict corporate bond yields.
problem Persistent shifts in interest rates undermine single-regime models.
method Regime-switching generalized CIR model with two-state short-rate process and credit factors.
result The model improves joint curve fit and delivers interpretable probabilities.
Paper evaluates different models for predicting credit default swap volatility.
problem Predicting the Implied Volatility of credit default swaps.
method SVM, Gradient Boosting, and Attention-GRU Hybrid model.
result Identifies strengths in classical and SOTA machine learning methods.
The model is aimed to discriminate the 'good' and the 'bad' companies in Russian corporate sector based on their financial statements data based on Russian Accounting Standards. The data sample consists of 126 Russian public companies- issuers of Ruble bonds which represent about 36% of total number of corporate bonds …
This study uses TDA to map corporate failure, revealing distinct regions of risk.
problem Understanding and predicting corporate default risk.
method Topological Data Analysis (TDA) applied to Altman's Z-score model.
result Firms do not cluster neatly along default predictors, suggesting complex risk landscapes.
This article deals with the problem of optimal allocation of capital to corporate bonds in fixed income portfolios when there is the possibility of correlated defaults. Under fairly general assumptions for the distribution of the total net assets of a set of firms we show that retaining the first few moments of the por…
New model estimates corporate defaults using pure jump processes, capturing extreme events.
problem Estimating corporate defaults using standard diffusion models that underestimate short-term probabilities.
method Introduced pure jump processes with negative jumps only, derived formulas, calibrated parameters, and implemented practical tools.
result Models redistribute credit risk towards shorter maturities, improving short-term default probability estimates.
Emerging market hard-currency bonds are an asset class of growing importance, and contain exposure to an EM sovereign and the underlying industry. The authors investigate how to model this as a modification of the well-known first-to-default (FtD) basket, using the structural model, and find the approach feasible.
The existence of asymmetric information has always been a major concern for financial institutions. Financial intermediaries such as commercial banks need to study the quality of potential borrowers in order to make their decision on corporate loans. Classical methods model the default probability by financial ratios u…
We provide analytical pricing formula of corporate defaultable bond with both expected and unexpected default in the case with stochastic default intensity. In the case with constant short rate and exogenous default recovery using PDE method, we gave some pricing formula of the defaultable bond under the conditions tha…
In this paper we formulate a corporate bond (CB) pricing model for deriving the term structure of default probabilities (TSDP) and the recovery rate (RR) for each pair of industry factor and credit rating grade, and these derived TSDP and RR are regarded as what investors imply in forming CB prices in the market at eac…
Default risk significantly affects the corporate policies of a firm. We develop a model in which a limited liability entity subject to Poisson default shock jointly sets its dividend policy and capital structure to maximize the expected lifetime utility from consumption of risk averse equity investors. We give a comple…
New method for valuing and hedging credit risk when defaults cannot be hedged.
problem Valuation and hedging of counterparty credit risk when there's no protection available.
method Local risk-minimization approach via BSDE (Backward Stochastic Differential Equation)
result Optimal strategy computed for valuing and hedging credit risk.
Pricing formulae for defaultable corporate bonds with discrete coupons under consideration of the government taxes in the united model of structural and reduced form models are provided. The aim of this paper is to generalize the comprehensive structural model for defaultable fixed income bonds (considered in [1]) into…
Model predicts default risk based on company's financial forecasts and credit conditions.
problem Estimating the risk of a company defaulting on its financial obligations.
method Developed an equilibrium model linking interest rates to corporate performance and credit supply.
result Estimates idiosyncratic default risk and provides forward-looking probability of default (PD).
Diffusion in a linear potential in the presence of position-dependent killing is used to mimic a default process. Different assumptions regarding transport coefficients, initial conditions, and elasticity of the killing measure lead to diverse models of bankruptcy. One "stylized fact" is fundamental for our considerati…
In this paper, we study an optimal excess-of-loss reinsurance and investment problem for an insurer in defaultable market. The insurer can buy reinsurance and invest in the following securities: a bank account, a risky asset with stochastic volatility and a defaultable corporate bond. We discuss the optimal investment …
Gradient boosted trees outperform other models in predicting corporate bankruptcy.
problem Predicting financial distress of publicly traded U.S. firms.
method Benchmarked various machine learning models using a comprehensive sample of bankruptcies.
result Gradient boosted trees outperform other models in one-year-ahead forecasts.
Temporal Coarse-Graining of Latent Default-Probability Paths Generates Effective Default Correlationq-fin.ST
Temporal aggregation reveals latent default correlation from monthly data.
problem Understanding effective default correlation from monthly default data.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths.
result Temporal coarse-graining improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
We apply Geometric Arbitrage Theory to obtain results in mathematical finance for credit markets, which do not need stochastic differential geometry in their formulation. We obtain closed form equations involving default intensities and loss given defaults characterizing the no-free-lunch-with-vanishing-risk condition …
We develop a generalization of the Black-Cox structural model of default risk. The extended model captures uncertainty related to firm's ability to avoid default even if company's liabilities momentarily exceeding its assets. Diffusion in a linear potential with the radiation boundary condition is used to mimic a compa…
Study compares CDS databases and finds discrepancies due to various factors.
problem Comparing discrepancies among CDS databases.
method Comparing five major sources of corporate CDS prices over 2004-2010.
result CMA quotes lead price discovery and databases disagree on stock-CDS return analysis.
There is empirical evidence that recovery rates tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This has to be taken into account in estimation of the capital against credit risk required by Basel II to cover losses during the adverse economic downturns; the so-called "downturn LGD" requ…
Two firms compete in a financial market, choosing dividend strategies to avoid default and maximize profits.
problem Strategic interaction between two financially constrained firms in a market with default risk.
method Construct Nash equilibria in feedback form for a class of two-person stochastic games of singular control.
result Explicit identification of optimal strategies and equilibrium payoffs for different initial conditions.
Contraction or steady state? An analysis of credit risk management in Italy in the period 2008-2012q-fin.RM
Credit risk management in Italy is characterized, in the period June 2008 to June 2012, by frequent (frequency=0.5 cycles per year) and intense (peak amplitude: mean=39.2 billion Euros, s.e.=2.83 billion Euros) quarterly contractions and expansions around the mean (915.4 billion Euros, s.e.=3.59 billion Euros) of the n…
iConViz: Interactive Visual Exploration of the Default Contagion Risk of Networked-Guarantee Loansq-fin.RM
iConViz helps banks manage default contagion risk in networked loans.
problem Managing default contagion risk in networked loans during economic downturns.
method Developed iConViz, an interactive tool, and a novel metric (contagion effect) to quantify and analyze the risk.
result iConViz facilitates closed-loop analysis and helps avoid ad hoc methods.
The paper addresses dynamic capital structure models with defaultable debt, proving existence and uniqueness.
problem Dynamic capital structure models with an investor break-even condition may not generate a contraction mapping.
method Provided an example and used a dual problem and change of measure to prove existence and uniqueness.
result A unique Markov-perfect equilibrium exists where firm decisions reflect state-dependent targets.
The paper uses option theory to estimate corporate bond liquidity spreads.
problem Estimating liquidity spreads for corporate bonds.
method Option-theoretic approach considering risk-free rate volatility and credit risk.
result The model provides a robust tool for pricing illiquid bonds.
This letter assesses model risk in credit capital requirements and finds substantial tail risk.
problem Uncertainty in the probability of default and loss-given-default parameters in credit capital requirements.
method Models estimation risk in a simple way, analyzing two datasets and testing parameter dependency.
result Parameter dependency significantly increases tail risk in capital requirements, requiring substantial increases in regulatory capital.
In this article, we study the problem of pricing defaultable bond with discrete default intensity and barrier under constant risk free short rate using higher order binary options and their integrals. In our credit risk model, the risk free short rate is a constant and the default event occurs in an expected manner whe…
We propose a simple non-equilibrium model of a financial market as an open system with a possible exchange of money with an outside world and market frictions (trade impacts) incorporated into asset price dynamics via a feedback mechanism. Using a linear market impact model, this produces a non-linear two-parametric ex…
In this paper, we implement a stochastic deflator with five economic and financial risk factors: interest rates, market price of risk, stock prices, default intensities, and convenience yields. We examine the deflator with different financial assets, such as stocks, zero-coupon bonds, vanilla options, and corporate cou…
We consider discrete default intensity based and logit type reduced form models for conditional default probabilities for corporate loans where we develop simple closed form approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) when the underlying covariates follow a stationary Gaussian process. In a practically rea…
Proposes a more robust rating scale for banks.
problem Inconsistent rating scale validation leading to higher capital requirements.
method Develops a new rating scale that is statistically distinguishable and robust.
result Reduces the calibration probability of default, saving capital requirements.
We present two methodologies on the estimation of rating transition probabilities within Markov and non-Markov frameworks. We first estimate a continuous-time Markov chain using discrete (missing) data and derive a simpler expression for the Fisher information matrix, reducing the computational time needed for the Wald…