A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Improved conversion rate prediction in online advertising using self-supervised pre-training.
Predicting conversion rates (CVRs) in display advertising (e.g., predicting the proportion of users who purchase an item (i.e., a conversion) after its corresponding ad is clicked) is important when measuring the effects of ads shown to users and to understanding the interests of the users. There is generally a time de…
DHEN improves CVR prediction for ads with multitask learning and auxiliary loss.
An automated metric to evaluate dialogue quality is vital for optimizing data driven dialogue management. The common approach of relying on explicit user feedback during a conversation is intrusive and sparse. Current models to estimate user satisfaction use limited feature sets and employ annotation schemes with limit…
In digital advertising, Click-Through Rate (CTR) and Conversion Rate (CVR) are very important metrics for evaluating ad performance. As a result, ad event prediction systems are vital and widely used for sponsored search and display advertising as well as Real-Time Bidding (RTB). In this work, we introduce an enhanced …
In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate, that is, the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, such as purchasing goods is fundamental in estimating the value of displaying the advertisement. However, there is a relatively long time delay between a click and its resul…
Study uses time series analysis to predict player churn and conversion in games.
In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate (CVR), meaning the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, is a fundamental task for estimating the value of displaying an advertisement to a user. There are two main challenges in CVR prediction due to delayed feedback. First,…
The DeepSurv model predicts purchase timing better than other survival models.
Conversion prediction plays an important role in online advertising since Cost-Per-Action (CPA) has become one of the primary campaign performance objectives in the industry. Unlike click prediction, conversions have different types in nature, and each type may be associated with different decisive factors. In this pap…
We evaluate how modern outlier detection methods perform in identifying outliers in e-commerce conversion rate data. Based on the limitations identified, we then present a novel method to detect outliers in e-commerce conversion rate. This unsupervised method is made more business relevant by letting it automatically a…
Proposes DenoiseBid to correct uncertain CTR and CVR estimates for autobidding.
Recommender system, as an essential part of modern e-commerce, consists of two fundamental modules, namely Click-Through Rate (CTR) and Conversion Rate (CVR) prediction. While CVR has a direct impact on the purchasing volume, its prediction is well-known challenging due to the Sample Selection Bias (SSB) and Data Spars…
The paper extracts structured data from physician-patient conversations, reducing clerical burden.
Prospective display advertising poses a great challenge for large advertising platforms as the strongest predictive signals of users are not eligible to be used in the conversion prediction systems. To that end efforts are made to collect as much information as possible about each user from various data sources and to …
Developing effective and efficient recommendation methods is very challenging for modern e-commerce platforms. Generally speaking, two essential modules named "Click-Through Rate Prediction" (\textit{CTR}) and "Conversion Rate Prediction" (\textit{CVR}) are included, where \textit{CVR} module is a crucial factor that a…
Nowadays, a lot of scientific efforts are concentrated on the diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) applying deep learning methods to neuroimaging data. Even for 2017, there were published more than a hundred papers dedicated to AD diagnosis, whereas only a few works considered a problem of mild cognitive impairments (…
Study predicts ad conversions based on URL embeddings.
In this paper, we apply neural networks into digital marketing world for the purpose of better targeting the potential customers. To do so, we model the customer online behaviours using dedicated neural network architectures. Starting from user searched keywords in a search engine to the landing page and different foll…
An automated metric to evaluate dialogue quality is vital for optimizing data driven dialogue management. The common approach of relying on explicit user feedback during a conversation is intrusive and sparse. Current models to estimate user satisfaction use limited feature sets and rely on annotation schemes with low …
Predicting keywords performance, such as number of impressions, click-through rate (CTR), conversion rate (CVR), revenue per click (RPC), and cost per click (CPC), is critical for sponsored search in the online advertising industry. An interesting phenomenon is that, despite the size of the overall data, the data are v…
Online purchase decisions in organizations can go through a complex journey with multiple agents involved in the decision making process. Depending on the product being purchased, and the organizational structure, the process may involve employees who first conduct market research, and then influence decision makers wh…
Estimates conversion probabilities from click sequences with privacy constraints.
Optimizes nonconvex optimization by converting it to static regret minimization.
Most machine learning classifiers give predictions for new examples accurately, yet without indicating how trustworthy predictions are. In the medical domain, this hampers their integration in decision support systems, which could be useful in the clinical practice. We use a supervised learning approach that combines E…
Estimating post-click conversion rate (CVR) accurately is crucial for ranking systems in industrial applications such as recommendation and advertising. Conventional CVR modeling applies popular deep learning methods and achieves state-of-the-art performance. However it encounters several task-specific problems in prac…
This paper introduces a Bayesian framework for optimizing online experiments to maximize profit.
Predicting click and conversion probabilities when bidding on ad exchanges is at the core of the programmatic advertising industry. Two separated lines of previous works respectively address i) the prediction of user conversion probability and ii) the attribution of these conversions to advertising events (such as clic…
Recently we see a rising number of methods in the field of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence. To our surprise, their development is driven by model developers rather than a study of needs for human end users. The analysis of needs, if done, takes the form of an A/B test rather than a study of open questions. To answe…
Unified approach for conversational recommendation by integrating attributes and items.
We present the Voice Conversion Challenge 2018, designed as a follow up to the 2016 edition with the aim of providing a common framework for evaluating and comparing different state-of-the-art voice conversion (VC) systems. The objective of the challenge was to perform speaker conversion (i.e. transform the vocal ident…
Building an open-domain conversational agent is a challenging problem. Current evaluation methods, mostly post-hoc judgments of static conversation, do not capture conversation quality in a realistic interactive context. In this paper, we investigate interactive human evaluation and provide evidence for its necessity; …
Study shows diverse data types improve SARS-COV-2 case surge predictions.
New method constructs confidence sets for GLMs via game theory.
The majority of conversations a dialogue agent sees over its lifetime occur after it has already been trained and deployed, leaving a vast store of potential training signal untapped. In this work, we propose the self-feeding chatbot, a dialogue agent with the ability to extract new training examples from the conversat…
In (Yang et al. 2016), a hierarchical attention network (HAN) is created for document classification. The attention layer can be used to visualize text influential in classifying the document, thereby explaining the model's prediction. We successfully applied HAN to a sequential analysis task in the form of real-time m…
In order to port the performance of trained artificial neural networks (ANNs) to spiking neural networks (SNNs), which can be implemented in neuromorphic hardware with a drastically reduced energy consumption, an efficient ANN to SNN conversion is needed. Previous conversion schemes focused on the representation of the…
Hybrid approach combines user feedback and machine learning for predicting user satisfaction.
New algorithms achieve uniform stability for empirical risk minimization.
New method predicts Alzheimer's risk with individual uncertainty estimates.
Click-through rate (CTR) prediction has been one of the most central problems in computational advertising. Lately, embedding techniques that produce low-dimensional representations of ad IDs drastically improve CTR prediction accuracies. However, such learning techniques are data demanding and work poorly on new ads w…
Group discussions are essential for organizing every aspect of modern life, from faculty meetings to senate debates, from grant review panels to papal conclaves. While costly in terms of time and organization effort, group discussions are commonly seen as a way of reaching better decisions compared to solutions that do…
Within the context of the banking-related literature on contingent convertible bonds, we comprehensively formalise the design and features of a relatively new type of insurance-linked security, called a contingent convertible catastrophe bond (CocoCat). We begin with a discussion of its design and compare its relative …
Effective utilization of photovoltaic (PV) plants requires weather variability robust global solar radiation (GSR) forecasting models. Random weather turbulence phenomena coupled with assumptions of clear sky model as suggested by Hottel pose significant challenges to parametric & non-parametric models in GSR conversio…
Empirical risk minimization (ERM) is a fundamental learning rule for statistical learning problems where the data is generated according to some unknown distribution and returns a hypothesis chosen from a fixed class with small loss . In the parametric setting, depending upon $(\ell…
Task-oriented dialog presents a difficult challenge encompassing multiple problems including multi-turn language understanding and generation, knowledge retrieval and reasoning, and action prediction. Modern dialog systems typically begin by converting conversation history to a symbolic object referred to as belief sta…
Ensembling improves performance when classifiers disagree more than average.
This paper proposes a non-parallel many-to-many voice conversion (VC) method using a variant of the conditional variational autoencoder (VAE) called an auxiliary classifier VAE (ACVAE). The proposed method has three key features. First, it adopts fully convolutional architectures to construct the encoder and decoder ne…