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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,181 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for conversion probability

Study proposes a time-aware model to predict user conversion intent.

problem Weak predictive signals from users not suitable for conversion prediction.
method Time-aware approach to model user activities and capture conversion intent signals.
result Approach outperforms other models on real-world datasets.

A method corrects feedback shift in predicting conversion rates with delayed feedback.

problem Delayed feedback leads to mislabeling of positive instances in training data.
method Uses importance weight approach to correct feedback shift.
result Proposed method outperforms existing methods in offline and online experiments.

Estimates conversion probabilities from click sequences with privacy constraints.

problem Training models in advertising with limited direct click-conversion links.
method Formalizes learning from attribution sets, constructs unbiased estimator, applies Empirical Risk Minimization.
result Empirical Risk Minimization achieves generalization guarantees and robustness against prior errors.

Study uses time series analysis to predict player churn and conversion in games.

problem Predicting player churn and conversion in free-to-play games.
method State Space time series approach with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Unobserved Components models.
result Unobserved Components approach fails to detect marketing campaigns and predicts abandonment poorly.

Adaptive policies solve a linear program to maximize rewards while minimizing costs in sales with discounts.

problem Maximizing rewards in sales with discounts while considering costs.
method Solves a linear program based on upper-confidence estimates of conversion probabilities.
result Achieves a regret bound of the typical order (OPT/BB) T\sqrt{T}, where B is the total budget allowed.

Paper proposes RL for efficient MCI diagnosis from dialogue data.

problem Efficiently diagnose MCI from conversational data with minimal interaction.
method Reinforcement learning framework trained on clinical trial transcripts.
result Significantly outperforms supervised learning approaches with minimal conversation turns.

Enhanced transformer converts whispered speech to natural speech.

problem Machine recognition of whispered speech is challenging.
method Proposes an enhanced transformer architecture trained end-to-end using supervised learning.
result Similar formant distributions of converted speech to groundtruth.

This paper uses Gaussian Process and converse Lyapunov function to estimate power system ROA.

problem Estimating the region of attraction (ROA) for power systems with conservative and limited analytical methods.
method Combining converse Lyapunov theorem and Gaussian Process to estimate ROA without needing an analytic Lyapunov function.
result The approach can significantly enlarge the estimated ROA compared to analytical methods.

I prove that if markets are weak-form efficient, meaning current prices fully reflect all information available in past prices, then P = NP, meaning every computational problem whose solution can be verified in polynomial time can also be solved in polynomial time. I also prove the converse by showing how we can "progr…

2010-02-11abs ↗pdf ↗

DHEN improves CVR prediction for ads with multitask learning and auxiliary loss.

problem Predicting conversion rates in ad-recommendation systems.
method DHEN integrates multiple feature-crossing modules and uses a multitask learning framework, ablation studies, and self-supervised auxiliary loss.
result DHEN achieves state-of-the-art performance in CVR prediction.

Wavelet-based online learning adapts to noisy Besov spaces with high probability.

problem Minimizing integrated squared error in Besov spaces with noisy observations.
method Adaptive wavelet-based online learning algorithm that dynamically adjusts to gradient noise.
result Achieves minimax-optimal integrated squared error with high probability.

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework for optimizing online experiments to maximize profit.

problem Statistical flaws and reliance on proxy metrics in A/B tests compromise their effectiveness.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model for estimating conversion probability and monetary value, decision-theoretic stopping rule.
result The framework ensures experiments conclude when no variant offers a significant profit improvement, conserving resources.

Paper improves conversion prediction models for online advertising.

problem Predicting different types of conversions in online advertising.
method Multi-Task Learning with MT-FwFM.
result Improved AUC by 0.74% and 0.84% on two conversion types, and overall AUC by 0.50%.

Study examines cash conversion cycle in manufacturing firms, finding negative relationships with profitability and size.

problem Understanding cash conversion cycle in manufacturing firms and its impact on profitability and size.
method Empirical study of 30 manufacturing firms in Dhaka Stock Exchanges, categorizing them into six industries, analyzing industry averages and relationships with size and profitability.
result Negative relationship between cash conversion cycle and profitability, especially ROE; negative relationship with firm size in terms of net sales.

Framework converts singer identity and vocal technique from non-parallel corpora.

problem Converts singer identity and vocal technique from non-parallel corpora.
method Uses variational autoencoders with separate encoders for singer identity and vocal technique.
result Successfully disentangles and converts singer identity and vocal technique.

Markov networks (MNs) are a powerful way to compactly represent a joint probability distribution, but most MN structure learning methods are very slow, due to the high cost of evaluating candidates structures. Dependency networks (DNs) represent a probability distribution as a set of conditional probability distributio…

2012-10-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Conversational UCB accelerates bandit learning with user feedback.

problem Slow learning speed in traditional contextual bandit algorithms.
method Generalized contextual bandit to conversational contextual bandit, leveraging both behavioral and conversational feedbacks.
result ConUCB achieves a smaller regret upper bound, indicating faster learning speed.

Algorithm recovers spike direction from modulo-reduced measurements in high dimensions.

problem Recovering spike direction from modulo-reduced measurements in high-dimensional space.
method Developed an algorithm for estimating the spike direction using modulo-reduced measurements.
result Algorithm accurately estimates the spike direction with n=poly(k)n=\mathrm{poly}(k) measurements when ΔlogkΔ\gtrsim \sqrt{\log k}.

A new model predicts conversion rates by analyzing post-click actions.

problem Challenges in predicting conversion rates due to sample selection bias and data sparsity.
method Post-click behavior decomposition and multi-task learning.
result The model effectively addresses sample selection bias and data sparsity issues.

Automated system extracts medication regimens from medical conversations.

problem Extract relevant medication information from medical conversations.
method QA task approach, combined QA and Information Extraction, data augmentation, public embeddings, pretraining.
result Improved accuracy in extracting dosage and frequency from 54.28 and 37.13 to 89.57 and 45.94.

The paper shows a phase transition for the existence of MLE in high-dimensional logistic regression.

problem The existence of the maximum likelihood estimate in high-dimensional logistic regression models.
method Established a phase transition boundary curve hextMLEh_{ ext{MLE}} parameterized by scalars measuring the magnitude of regression coefficients.
result The existence of the MLE in high-dimensional logistic regression models undergoes a sharp phase transition.

FedConPE improves conversational recommender systems efficiency and privacy.

problem Efficiently eliciting user preferences in interactive systems with heterogeneous clients.
method Phase elimination-based federated conversational bandit algorithm with adaptive key term construction.
result Minimizes uncertainty across all dimensions in feature space and offers improved efficiency and privacy.

Solution for voice conversion with limited data using hierarchical seq2seq and attention models.

problem Voice conversion between speakers with limited parallel audio pairs.
method Hierarchical sequence to sequence model with attention-based decoder, trained on single speaker dataset.
result Improved voice conversion quality using mel spectrograms and wavenet vocoder.

Proposes a multi-state model for evaluating life insurance conversion options.

problem Evaluating the value of conversion options in life insurance contracts.
method Age-indexed semi-Markov chains to model duration, time non-homogeneity, and ageing effects.
result Validates the model's ability to accurately evaluate conversion option values.

Improved SAR in asynchronous conversations using neural models and unlabeled data.

problem Lack of labeled data for SAR in asynchronous conversations.
method Hierarchical LSTM-CRF model, semi-supervised learning with word embeddings, adversarial training.
result Adversarial training improves SAR performance by leveraging labeled data from synchronous domains.

CycleGAN-VC3 improves CycleGAN-VCs for mel-spectrogram conversion.

problem Ambiguity in CycleGAN-VC/VC2 effectiveness for mel-spectrogram conversion.
method Proposes CycleGAN-VC3 with time-frequency adaptive normalization (TFAN).
result CycleGAN-VC3 outperforms or matches CycleGAN-VC2 for mel-spectrogram conversion.

ConvS2S-VC converts voice characteristics and pitch contour using a fully convolutional seq2seq model.

problem Voice conversion with preservation of pitch contour and duration.
method Fully convolutional seq2seq architecture with conditional batch normalization.
result ConvS2S-VC outperforms baseline methods in sound quality and speaker similarity.

A new algorithm for conversational recommendation systems using dueling bandits in GLMs.

problem Limited user feedback in existing conversational bandit methods.
method Integrates dueling bandits with relative feedback in generalized linear models.
result Theoretical and empirical validation of ConDuel's efficacy.

The paper extracts structured data from physician-patient conversations, reducing clerical burden.

problem Mining insights from physician-patient conversations for electronic health record documentation.
method Created a dataset of transcripts and summaries, extracted noteworthy utterances, and improved model performance.
result Extracting noteworthy utterances significantly boosts model performance for recognizing diagnoses and RoS abnormalities.

Schedule-free SGD is optimal for nonconvex optimization problems.

problem Nonconvex optimization in neural networks.
method Developed a general framework for online-to-nonconvex conversion, which converts schedule-free SGD into an effective nonconvex optimization algorithm.
result Schedule-free SGD achieves optimal iteration complexity for nonsmooth, nonconvex optimization problems.

Bi-Lipschitz flows approximate a wide range of distributions.

problem Characterizing the expressivity of bi-Lipschitz normalizing flows.
method Linking score regularity to transport map bi-Lipschitzness via probability flow ODE.
result Gaussian pullbacks induced by bi-Lipschitz variance-preserving transport maps are L1L^1-dense among all probability densities.

Improved conversion rate prediction in online advertising using self-supervised pre-training.

problem Data sparsity and calibration issues in predicting conversions given clicks.
method Self-supervised pre-training on all conversion events to enrich CVR prediction model without compromising calibration.
result Improvements in offline training and online A/B tests, with full deployment to Yahoo native advertising system.

Study optimizes tree-based models for better alignment of predicted scores and actual probabilities.

problem Traditional calibration metrics fail to align predicted scores with actual probabilities when score distributions deviate from the underlying data.
method Optimizes tree-based models (Random Forest, XGBoost) using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to minimize the difference between predicted and true probability distributions.
result Optimized tree-based models yield superior alignment between predicted scores and actual probabilities without significant performance loss.