Study on NNs for forecasting time series with novel control variable combinations.
problem Forecast future time series with novel combinations of control variables.
method Modular NN architecture with inductive bias for independence of control variables.
result Modular NN architecture improves forecasting of dependent variables up to large horizons.
A new method reduces variance in training discrete latent variable models.
problem High variance in stochastic gradient estimators for discrete latent variable models.
method Double control variates for score function estimators using Taylor expansions.
result Our method can have lower variance compared to other estimators.
New method infers causal effects without knowing control variables.
problem Inference errors when control variables are unknown.
method Proposes a method for inferring causal effects when control variables are unknown.
result Proves method yields asymptotically valid confidence intervals for average causal effects.
Private variable selection method controls FDR with simulations showing reasonable power.
problem Performing variable selection with privacy constraints.
method Private knockoff filter using Gaussian and Laplace mechanisms.
result Achieves controlled false discovery rate (FDR) in variable selection.
Kernel methods identify treatment effects with unobserved confounding using negative controls.
problem Learning causal relationships with unmeasured confounding.
method Kernel ridge regression algorithms for nonparametric treatment effects.
result Uniform consistency and finite sample rates of convergence proved.
Novel framework controls FDR in high-dimensional, dependent data.
problem FDR control failure in high-dimensional, dependent data.
method Dependency-aware T-Rex selector integrating hierarchical graphical models and martingale theory.
result First to control FDR in high-dimensional, dependent data.
A/B testing improves marketing decisions by selecting effective stratification variables.
problem Improving the sensitivity of A/B testing through stratified sampling.
method Designing an algorithm to select a subset of stratification variables for variance reduction.
result The subset selection method outperforms other variance reduction techniques in A/B testing.
T-Rex selector selects variables fast and controls FDR in high-dimensional data.
problem Variable selection in high-dimensional data with FDR control.
method Fused solutions of early terminated random experiments.
result FDR control at target level with high variable selection power.
Big T-Rex solves FDR-controlled sparse regression on laptops with millions of variables.
problem Scalable FDR-controlled variable selection for high-dimensional data.
method Early terminated random experiments with memory-mapping and permutation-based dummy generation.
result Solves FDR-controlled Lasso problems with 5 million variables on a laptop in 30 minutes.
New method controls FDR for sparse GLMs, identifying positive and negative relationships.
problem Sparse GLMs with high-dimensional data and varying sample size.
method Debiased-Lasso estimator and CLIME method for precision matrix estimation.
result Asymptotically controls directional FDR and FDV for sparse GLMs.
We consider a stochastic game of contribution to the common good in which the players have continuous control over the degree of contribution, and we examine the gradualism arising from the free rider effect. This game belongs to the class of variable concession games which generalize wars of attrition. Previously know…
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are famous for their high prediction accuracy, but they are also known for their black-box nature and poor interpretability. We consider the problem of variable selection, that is, selecting the input variables that have significant predictive power on the output, in DNNs. We propose a backw…
Enhances FDR control in variable selection using neural networks.
problem Balancing rigorous error control with statistical power in high-dimensional variable selection.
method Learning-augmented T-Rex Selector framework with a neural network trained on synthetic datasets.
result Achieves superior detection of true variables compared to existing approaches.
Causal effect estimation relies on separating the variation in the outcome into parts due to the treatment and due to the confounders. To achieve this separation, practitioners often use external sources of randomness that only influence the treatment called instrumental variables (IVs). We study variables constructed …
Method interprets GAN latent space via latent variable correlation analysis.
problem Understanding the inner workings of GANs.
method Analyzing correlation between latent variables and semantic contents in generated images.
result A method for controllable semantic content generation in GANs.
Variable speed limits (VSL) control is a flexible way to improve traffic condition,increase safety and reduce emission. There is an emerging trend of using reinforcement learning technique for VSL control and recent studies have shown promising results. Currently, deep learning is enabling reinforcement learning to dev…
Paper uses VAEs to control IVS features for financial modeling.
problem Generating realistic IVSs with desired characteristics.
method Variational autoencoder architecture with controllable latent variables.
result Controlled generation of IVSs with specified features.
New method reduces memory usage for high-dimensional variable selection.
problem Scalability issues in high-dimensional variable selection, especially in genomics.
method Adaptive sampling of null features to eliminate dummy matrix materialization.
result Reduces memory and runtime by several orders of magnitude while preserving FDR control.
Paper introduces multitask neural networks for efficient stochastic control problems.
problem Infeasibility of simulating state variables in some stochastic control problems.
method Multitask neural networks with dynamic task balancing.
result Multitask neural networks outperform state-of-the-art approaches in derivatives pricing problems.
Paper proposes knockoff-based methods to simplify deep neural networks by controlling false discovery rates.
problem High-dimensional deep neural networks with many irrelevant parameters and inputs.
method Knockoff methods combined with regularized neural networks for variable screening.
result Proposed algorithms show satisfactory performance in controlling false discovery rates.
Proposes a two-stage method for testing variable interactions with FDR control.
problem Testing pairwise interactions in high-dimensional data with dependence.
method Two-stage testing procedure with FDR control using Cramér type moderate deviation technique.
result The proposed method controls FDR and has comparable or improved statistical power.
This paper describes Simpson's paradox, and explains its serious implications for randomised control trials. In particular, we show that for any number of variables we can simulate the result of a controlled trial which uniformly points to one conclusion (such as 'drug is effective') for every possible combination of t…
Proposes a new estimator for weak instrumental variables in panel data models.
problem Weak instrumental variables due to ignored nonlinearities in panel data.
method Triangular simultaneous equation model with a nonlinear reduced form equation and a control function approach using Super Learner.
result The proposed SLCF estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal, achieving a parametric rate of convergence.
Improved FDR control for sparse financial index tracking.
problem Maintaining FDR control in high-dimensional financial data with strong variable dependencies.
method Expanding T-Rex framework to handle overlapping groups of correlated variables with nearest neighbors penalization.
result Accurately tracks the S&P 500 index using only a small number of stocks.
Hierarchical-CPI improves variable importance measurement for medical data.
problem Limited interpretability of complex medical models.
method Hierarchical-CPI measures conditional variable importance with statistical control, handling correlated data.
result Hierarchical-CPI outperforms existing methods in medical datasets.
Sparse PCA selects variables with FDR control for improved performance.
problem Sparse PCA selects irrelevant variables when maximizing explained variance.
method Proposes FDR-controlled selection using T-Rex selector.
result Significant performance improvement over traditional sparse PCA.
New method controls false edge detections in Gaussian graphical models.
problem High false edge detections in well-established estimators.
method Nodewise variable selection approach to control false discovery rate.
result Significant gain in performance compared to competing methods.
Assigning significance in high-dimensional regression is challenging. Most computationally efficient selection algorithms cannot guard against inclusion of noise variables. Asymptotically valid p-values are not available. An exception is a recent proposal by Wasserman and Roeder (2008) which splits the data into two pa…
CIB compresses variables causally, preserving key causal interactions.
problem Constructing causal variable abstractions in complex systems.
method Causal Information Bottleneck (CIB) method, extending IB to include causal structures.
result CIB produces causally interpretable abstractions that accurately capture causal relations.
Paper proposes a privacy-preserving knockoff inference method.
problem Ensuring privacy in model-X knockoff inference.
method Differential privacy framework for knockoff inference.
result Guaranteed FDR control with privacy protection.
Paper presents deep LSMC method for efficient variable annuity pricing.
problem Efficiently pricing variable annuities with guarantees using simulation methods.
method Modifies least-squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) algorithm for optimal stochastic control problems.
result Deep LSMC provides more stable and robust pricing performance for higher-dimensional problems.
Proposes a virtual bidding strategy for electricity markets using stochastic control.
problem Optimizing electricity prices in day-ahead and real-time markets.
method Modeling price differences as Brownian motion with meteorological variables, transforming into portfolio management problem.
result Developed a strategy to manage electricity prices efficiently.
New method identifies causal relationships using proxy variables in the presence of unmeasured confounders.
problem Challenges in inferring causal relationships due to unmeasured confounding.
method Develops a general nonparametric approach using a single negative control outcome (NCO) and negative control exposure (NCE).
result Establishes a new identification result and proposes a kernel-based testing procedure.
New algorithm uses control variates to improve multi-armed bandit performance.
problem Stochastic multi-armed bandits with auxiliary reward information.
method Developed UCB-CV algorithm using control variates for mean estimation.
result UCB-CV algorithm provides tighter confidence bounds and smaller variance.
Bayesian optimization adapted for experiments with changing environmental conditions.
problem Optimizing experiments influenced by uncontrollable environmental factors.
method Extends Bayesian optimization to handle both controllable and uncontrollable parameters, fitting a global surrogate model and optimizing only controllable parameters conditionally on measurements of uncontrollable variables.
result The proposed ENVBO algorithm finds solutions for the full domain of the environmental variable more efficiently and cost-effectively than traditional methods.
Industrial process control systems try to keep an output variable within a given tolerance around a target value. PID control systems have been widely used in industry to control input variables in order to reach this goal. However, this kind of Transfer Function based approach cannot be extended to complex processes w…
Bayesian approach controls FDR in high-dimensional models.
problem High-dimensional variable selection and inference.
method Adapted Mirror Statistic to Bayesian framework for FDR control.
result Effective FDR control without data splitting.
New approach to optimal dividend control with mean-variance criterion.
problem Balancing expected dividends and variability in a singular control framework.
method Game-theoretic approach to find time-consistent equilibrium strategies.
result Verification theorem for MV singular dividend control problem.
NICE learns a representation to avoid bad controls in causal inference.
problem Avoiding bad controls in causal inference from observational data.
method Uses invariant risk minimization (IRM) to learn a representation of covariates that avoids bad controls.
result NICE outperforms adjusting for all covariates in cases with unknown collider variables and bad controls.
Novel privatization framework for high-dimensional variable selection with differential privacy.
problem High-dimensional controlled variable selection with rigorous FDR control under differential privacy constraints.
method Gaussian Johnson-Lindenstrauss Transformation for privatizing the knockoff matrix.
result The proposed private variable selection procedure maintains statistical power even under strict privacy budgets.
Develops robust knockoffs for controlling false discoveries in financial data.
problem Challenges in variable selection with highly correlated data in finance and economics.
method Robustified knockoff framework addressing high dependence and time correlation.
result Identifies new important groups of factors on top of known drivers.
Sharp concentration bounds for i.i.d. variables.
problem Controlling the tail probabilities of independent variables.
method Extension of Sanov's theorem using large deviations and information theory.
result Matching concentration and anti-concentration bounds for i.i.d. samples of any size.
New method uses DNN for genetic variant identification, controlling randomness and improving interpretability.
problem Challenges in interpreting deep neural networks for genetic variant identification.
method Interpretable neural network model with controlled variable selection using ensembling, knockoffs, and de-randomization.
result The proposed method leads to more discoveries compared to conventional methods.
Combining causality, control, and reinforcement learning for system control.
problem Learning to control dynamical systems using causal, control, and reinforcement learning approaches.
method Combining causal identification, control strategies, and reinforcement learning to control dynamical systems.
result Combining different learning paradigms for effective system control.
In statistics and machine learning, approximation of an intractable integration is often achieved by using the unbiased Monte Carlo estimator, but the variances of the estimation are generally high in many applications. Control variates approaches are well-known to reduce the variance of the estimation. These control v…
DeepLINK-T uses deep learning and knockoffs for time series data.
problem Interpreting and reproducible deep learning models for high-dimensional time series data.
method Combines deep learning with knockoffs for FDR control in feature selection for time series models.
result DeepLINK-T effectively controls FDR while demonstrating superior feature selection for high-dimensional longitudinal time series data.
Many real-world control problems involve both discrete decision variables - such as the choice of control modes, gear switching or digital outputs - as well as continuous decision variables - such as velocity setpoints, control gains or analogue outputs. However, when defining the corresponding optimal control or reinf…
In variable or graph selection problems, finding a right-sized model or controlling the number of false positives is notoriously difficult. Recently, a meta-algorithm called Stability Selection was proposed that can provide reliable finite-sample control of the number of false positives. Its benefits were demonstrated …