A new method removes biases in data integration by using surrogate control outcomes.
problem Data integration methods can be biased due to data-dependent processes.
method Post-integrated inference method using surrogate control outcomes to account for latent heterogeneity.
result The method provides consistent and efficient estimators under minimal assumptions and potential misspecifications.
This paper proposes a method for estimating the effect of a policy intervention on an outcome over time. We train recurrent neural networks (RNNs) on the history of control unit outcomes to learn a useful representation for predicting future outcomes. The learned representation of control units is then applied to the t…
In a seminal paper Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller [2010] (ADH), see also Abadie and Gardeazabal [2003], Abadie et al. [2014], develop the synthetic control procedure for estimating the effect of a treatment, in the presence of a single treated unit and a number of control units, with pre-treatment outcomes observed f…
A new method models continuous-time counterfactual outcomes using neural controlled differential equations.
problem Estimating personalized healthcare outcomes over irregularly sampled data.
method Interpreting data as samples from a continuous-time process, modeling latent trajectory using controlled differential equations, and using adversarial training for time-dependent confounding.
result TE-CDE consistently outperforms existing approaches in irregularly sampled scenarios.
A new meta-algorithm for estimating the conditional average treatment effects is proposed in the paper. The main idea underlying the algorithm is to consider a new dataset consisting of feature vectors produced by means of concatenation of examples from control and treatment groups, which are close to each other. Outco…
We present a new machine learning approach to estimate personalized treatment effects in the classical potential outcomes framework with binary outcomes. To overcome the problem that both treatment and control outcomes for the same unit are required for supervised learning, we propose surrogate loss functions that inco…
Optimizes experimental design using synthetic controls for better outcomes.
problem Estimating average treatment effects in studies with pre-treatment data.
method Mixed-integer programming for selecting treated and control units and weights.
result Improves mean squared error and statistical power compared to simple alternatives.
Kernel methods identify treatment effects with unobserved confounding using negative controls.
problem Learning causal relationships with unmeasured confounding.
method Kernel ridge regression algorithms for nonparametric treatment effects.
result Uniform consistency and finite sample rates of convergence proved.
In the absence of unobserved confounders, matching and weighting methods are widely used to estimate causal quantities including the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT). Unfortunately, these methods do not necessarily achieve their goal of making the multivariate distribution of covariates for the control gro…
TSC improves causal effect estimation in panel data.
problem Estimating causal effects in panel data with a single treated unit.
method Targeted synthetic control method that refines initial weights through a one-dimensional targeted update.
result TSC consistently improves estimation accuracy over state-of-the-art SCM baselines.
This study evaluates subgroup analysis methods for time-to-event outcomes in randomized controlled trials.
problem Identifying subgroups of good responders in non-significant randomized controlled trials.
method Evaluation of several subgroup analysis algorithms for time-to-event outcomes using synthetic and semi-synthetic data.
result Provides a new synthetic and semi-synthetic data generation process and an open-source Python package for benchmarking.
A new method TNW-CATE estimates treatment effects using neural networks.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with limited controls and many treatments.
method Trainable Nadaraya-Watson regression with shared parameters neural network.
result TNW-CATE outperforms traditional methods in various simulation experiments.
New method uses geometric mean to avoid non-collapsibility in case-control studies.
problem Non-collapsibility of odds ratio under outcome-dependent sampling.
method Proposes geometric mean aggregation to avoid non-collapsibility and provides estimation and inference methods.
result Geometric odds ratio is collapsible under outcome-dependent sampling.
Machine learning reduces variance in online experiment results.
problem Reducing variance in randomized controlled trials.
method Machine learning regression-adjusted treatment effect estimator (MLRATE).
result MLRATE reduces estimator variance by over 70% in A/A tests.
The paper introduces a new algorithm for fair decision-making in outcome control tasks.
problem Fair and equitable automated decision-making in outcome control tasks.
method Causal analysis and optimization to ensure fairness in decision-making.
result Developed an algorithm for maximizing Y while ensuring causal fairness. Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.
problem Timeliness of write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific issues.
method Comparative analysis of write-downs driven by macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific outcomes.
result Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.
Synthetic control method improves policy evaluation in high-dimensional settings.
problem Evaluating the impact of new policies in large-scale applications.
method Two-phase approach: nearest neighbor matching followed by supervised learning.
result The method successfully improves estimate accuracy in large-scale experiments.
Two-stage TMLE reduces bias and improves efficiency in CRTs.
problem Differential outcome measurement and imbalance in baseline predictors in CRTs.
method Two-stage targeted minimum loss-based estimator (TMLE) to adjust for baseline covariates.
result Our approach nearly eliminates bias due to differential outcome measurement.
The paper proposes a neural network method to estimate treatment effects by balancing treated and control distributions.
problem Estimating individual and average treatment effects from observational data.
method Balance regularization of multi-head neural network architectures to reduce confounding effects.
result The approach reduces bias-variance trade-off and improves treatment effect estimation.
A reinforcement learning approach prepares quantum squeezed states in open spin systems.
problem Generating non-classical states in open quantum systems with dissipation and dephasing.
method Reinforcement learning to determine optimal control pulses for spin-squeezing.
result Optimal control sequences enhance collective spin squeezing and entanglement.
Generative AI models improve clinical trial data by generating survival outcomes.
problem Generating valid survival outcomes for clinical trials with synthetic data.
method A variational autoencoder (VAE) that jointly generates mixed-type covariates and survival outcomes.
result The method outperforms GAN baselines on fidelity, utility, and privacy metrics.
Adaptive sequential testing optimizes epidemic control by learning optimal test strategies.
problem Optimizing test allocation in epidemics with network and temporal dependence.
method Adaptive sequential design with Online Super Learner for optimal test strategies.
result Superior performance in simulated university COVID-19 pandemic.
The paper discusses selecting predictive models for causal inference, highlighting the challenges and proposing a solution.
problem Selecting the best predictive models for causal inference from a variety of machine learning models.
method The paper proposes using Rext−risk, flexible estimators, and splitting data to compute risks for model selection. result The proposed method controls both outcome errors for treated and non-treated individuals, addressing the issue of model selection for causal inference.
New method identifies proxies for causal effects on multiple outcomes.
problem Estimating causal effects in scenarios with multiple outcomes and treatments.
method Causal discovery method leveraging multiple outcomes as proxies for each treatment effect.
result Parallel studies of multiple outcomes can assist in causal identification.
New causal measures improve feature selection in AI models.
problem Lack of causal interpretability in AI models.
method Introduces causal entropy and causal information gain to assess feature control.
result Demonstrates superiority of causal information gain in feature selection.
Participants enrolled into randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often do not reflect real-world populations. Previous research in how best to translate RCT results to target populations has focused on weighting RCT data to look like the target data. Simulation work, however, has suggested that an outcome model approach …
TabCF simplifies causal inference for distributional effects.
problem Estimating causal effects with unmeasured confounding.
method Control function regression using tabular foundation models.
result Accurate, fast, and transparent causal estimation of distributional quantities.
New estimator improves ATT estimation efficiency with external controls.
problem Reduced efficiency when incorporating external controls into ATT estimation.
method Proposes a novel doubly robust estimator for ATT that maintains higher efficiency than standard approaches.
result Demonstrates improved efficiency of the new estimator compared to standard approaches, even under model misspecification.
The study uses transfer learning to compare surgical outcomes across racial/ethnic subgroups.
problem Difficulty in comparing surgical outcomes due to racial/ethnic and geographic differences.
method Causal inference framework and transfer learning to incorporate data from multiple populations.
result Racial and ethnic differences in surgical outcomes are found, with non-Hispanic Black patients experiencing wide variability.
Molecular dynamics simulations use statistical mechanics at the atomistic scale to enable both the elucidation of fundamental mechanisms and the engineering of matter for desired tasks. The behavior of molecular systems at the microscale is typically simulated with differential equations parameterized by a Hamiltonian,…
New method controls bias in training data for fair outcomes.
problem Ensuring equal treatment between different groups in machine learning.
method Contrastive information estimation to control mutual information between representations and protected attributes.
result Our method provides strong theoretical guarantees on the parity of any downstream algorithm.
A new method improves treatment effect inferences in RCTs by adjusting for covariates and heteroskedasticity.
problem Improving treatment effect inferences in RCTs with efficient and powerful methods.
method Weighted Prognostic Covariate Adjustment Method (Weighted PROCOVA) for heteroskedasticity.
result The method reduces variance, maintains Type I error rate, and increases test power for treatment effect.
We propose a novel approach for inferring the individualized causal effects of a treatment (intervention) from observational data. Our approach conceptualizes causal inference as a multitask learning problem; we model a subject's potential outcomes using a deep multitask network with a set of shared layers among the fa…
Paper develops an efficient algorithm for experiment design using synthetic controls.
problem Designing optimal experiments for treatment effect estimation.
method Solves a phase synchronization problem via a normalized generalized power method.
result First global optimality guarantee for experiment design with pre-treatment data.
CNN improves causal inference by controlling time-structured covariates.
problem Estimating the effect of early retirement on health outcomes while controlling for time-structured covariates.
method Used CNN to fit nuisance models explaining treatment and outcome, combining them into an augmented inverse probability weighting estimator.
result Uniformly valid inference achieved through CNN, providing rates of convergence and uniformly valid inference guarantees.
Algorithm reduces variance in causal effect estimation from multiple datasets.
problem Unidentifiable average treatment effect in observational data due to selection bias.
method Constructs control variates using datasets where ATE is not identifiable to reduce variance.
result Significant reduction in variance of ATE estimate using control variates.
New method for valid prediction intervals with coarsened data.
problem Handling missing data and censored outcomes in training samples.
method Multiply robust conformal risk control with semiparametric theory.
result Stronger coverage properties under covariate shift.
The paper uses machine learning to find causal rules from business process logs.
problem Discovering causal relationships in business process logs.
method Action rule mining followed by causal machine learning (uplift trees).
result Identifies treatments with high causal effect on outcomes.
Proposes SSC for estimating counterfactual survival trajectories from observational data.
problem Challenges in estimating causal effects on time-to-event outcomes from observational data.
method Synthetic Survival Control (SSC) framework for estimating counterfactual hazard trajectories in panel data settings.
result SSC estimates counterfactual hazard trajectories as a weighted combination of observed trajectories from other units.
Enhances credit card limit adjustments by considering treatment uncertainty and prediction criteria.
problem Optimal treatment selection under multitreatment scenarios.
method Proposes a comprehensive methodology incorporating conditional value-at-risk and prediction criterion for continuous outcomes.
result Significantly improved policy performance in credit card limit adjustments.
New method uses unlabeled data to estimate intercept in case-control logistic regression.
problem Estimating intercept in case-control logistic regression.
method Construct likelihood function, use iterative algorithm to find maximum likelihood estimator.
result Proposed method identifies intercept and improves estimation efficiency.
This chapter covers different approaches to policy evaluation for assessing the causal effect of a treatment or intervention on an outcome of interest. As an introduction to causal inference, the discussion starts with the experimental evaluation of a randomized treatment. It then reviews evaluation methods based on se…
The paper develops methods for causal inference from single-cell RNA sequencing data with multiple outcomes.
problem Causal inference from single-cell RNA sequencing data with multiple heterogeneous outcomes.
method Generic semiparametric inference framework for doubly robust estimation with multiple derived outcomes.
result Demonstrates the use of semiparametric inferential results for estimating causal effects in genomics.
Digital twins improve single-arm trials by providing robust treatment effect estimates.
problem Lack of control arms in single-arm trials limits their gold-standard evidence.
method Outcome-model-based synthetic controls using machine learning models trained on historical data.
result Digital twins offer more robust treatment effect estimates and principled corrections.
Paper improves feature selection for predicting outcomes from observational data.
problem Feature selection for post-intervention outcome prediction from pre-intervention variables in healthcare settings.
method Extends Markov boundary concept to treatment-outcome pairs, uses observational and experimental data.
result Combining observational and experimental data improves feature selection and effect estimation.
A new knockoff statistic using conditional prediction function improves variable selection in complex models.
problem Controlling false discovery rate in complex models with nonlinear relationships.
method Introducing a knockoff statistic based on the conditional prediction function for use with machine learning models.
result The CPF statistics provide superior power in detecting prognostic variables over existing knockoff statistics.
Proposes efficient data acquisition for personalized treatment effects from observational data.
problem Efficiently acquiring outcomes for personalized treatment effects in observational studies.
method Introduces causal, Bayesian acquisition functions to select points with overlapping support.
result Demonstrates improved sample efficiency and accuracy in learning personalized treatment effects.
New method identifies causal relationships using proxy variables in the presence of unmeasured confounders.
problem Challenges in inferring causal relationships due to unmeasured confounding.
method Develops a general nonparametric approach using a single negative control outcome (NCO) and negative control exposure (NCE).
result Establishes a new identification result and proposes a kernel-based testing procedure.