Prediction markets can be manipulated by traders who can move contract settlements, harming price discovery.
problem Manipulation of settlement times in prediction markets leads to unfair wealth transfer and harms price discovery.
method Developed a model showing how settlement manipulation transfers wealth and harms price discovery, and observed real-world effects on Polymarket's Bitcoin contract.
result Manipulators capture significant profits from retail traders, especially when settlement times are short.
Graph learning categorizes DeFi services into similar functionalities.
problem Identifying similar financial services in decentralized finance protocols.
method Graph representation learning (GRL) to categorize smart contract blocks into clusters.
result Purity of clustering reaches .888 in the best-case scenario.
Develops theory of relatively Anosov representations using flow examples.
problem Understanding relatively Anosov representations.
method Uses a contracting flow on a bundle to define Anosov representations and builds examples.
result Builds families of examples of relatively Anosov representations.
Two methods for pricing swing contracts using neural networks or explicit functions.
problem Evaluating optimal energy purchases in swing contracts with firm constraints.
method Two approaches: explicit parametric function and neural network approximation.
result Neural network approach provides better prices in shorter computation time.
Let B be a thick spherical building equipped with its natural CAT(1) metric and let M be a proper, convex subset of B. If M is open or if M is a closed ball of radius pi/2, then the maximal subcomplex supported by the complement of M is spherical and non contractible.
The action dimension of a group G is the minimal dimension of a contractible manifold that G acts on properly discontinuously. We show that if G acts properly and cocompactly on a thick Euclidean building, then the action dimension is bounded below by twice the dimension of the building. We also compute the action dime…
This work studies the contraction coefficients of Schrödinger bridge problems in linear systems.
problem Optimally controlling the evolution of a system's state density over time.
method Analyzes and improves the convergence rates of dynamic Schrödinger systems via geometric and control-theoretic interpretations.
result New insights into improving computation of worst-case contraction coefficients by preconditioning.
In this paper we provide a valuation formula for different classes of actuarial and financial contracts which depend on a general loss process, by using the Malliavin calculus. In analogy with the celebrated Black-Scholes formula, we aim at expressing the expected cash flow in terms of a building block. The former is r…
Paper proposes new Langevin samplers for sampling from log-concave distributions with superlinear gradient growth.
problem Sampling from log-concave distributions with superlinear gradient growth.
method Proposes two novel discretizations of kinetic Langevin SDEs, showing contractivity and log-Sobolev inequality.
result Establishes non-asymptotic bounds in 2-Wasserstein distance between sampled distributions and target measures.
The main purpose of this paper is to formalize the modelling process, analysis and mathematical definition of corruption when entering into a contract between principal agent and producers. The formulation of the problem and the definition of concepts for the general case are considered. For definiteness, all calculati…
This paper introduces a method to improve GNN stability and robustness.
problem Challenges in GNN stability, generalization, and robustness.
method SVD regularization to induce contractive behavior in GNNs.
result SVD regularization enhances the stability and generalization of GNNs.
We propose a general notion of algebraic gauge theory obtained via extracting the main properties of classical gauge theory. Building on a recent work on transferring curved A∞-structures we show that, under certain technical conditions, algebraic gauge theories can be transferred along chain contractions. Sp…
The paper improves energy contract pricing models by incorporating jumps and varying parameters.
problem Inaccurate pricing of energy contracts using the Black-Scholes-Merton model.
method Integrates regime switching and time-changed Levy processes with a two-state Markov chain.
result Improved accuracy in pricing energy contracts through a new model.
Study random walks on CAT(0) spaces with contracting elements, proving limit laws.
problem Analyzing random walks on spaces with non-positive curvature.
method Use of contracting elements and hyperbolic models for CAT(0) spaces.
result Prove almost sure convergence to the boundary without moment assumption.
Develops a Gaussian model to compute the Alexander polynomial of knots.
problem Computing the Alexander polynomial of knots.
method Uses perturbed Gaussian functions, Heisenberg algebra, and tensor-contraction formalism.
result Associates a Gaussian function to a knot whose partition function recovers the Alexander polynomial.
Quantum crypto-economics models price risks in blockchain technology.
problem Quantum technology's potential to undermine blockchain security.
method Building financial models to price quantum risk in blockchain scenarios.
result Quantum crypto-economics models can assess and price quantum risks in blockchain.
Finite type for 3-manifolds with boundary.
problem Finite type for 3-manifolds with boundary.
method Contractible space of reducing spheres, homotopy type of finite CW complex.
result B Diff(M rel boundary) has the homotopy type of a finite CW complex.
Improved AMM protocol supports diverse loan maturities in DeFi.
problem Challenges in designing AMMs for fixed-income lending with time-related complexities.
method Generalized BondMM protocol to support arbitrary maturities.
result BondMM-A protocol demonstrates superior performance in interest rate stability and financial robustness.
We show that if K: P \to R is an autonomous Hamiltonian on a symplectic manifold (P,Ω) which attains 0 as a Morse-Bott nondegenerate minimum along a symplectic submanifold M, and if c_1(TP)|_M vanishes in real cohomology, then the Hamiltonian flow of K has contractible periodic orbits with bounded period on all suffici…
New complex surfaces found with interesting geometric properties.
problem Understanding the structure of shift loci of degree d polynomials.
method Explicit description of shift loci as complex spaces over a contractible building, using combinatorial and algebraic methods.
result Shift loci have the homotopy type of CW complexes and are K(π,1) for d=3,4. Contracts for Difference (CfDs) are forwards on the spread between an area price and the system price. Together with the system price forwards, these products are used to hedge the area price risk in the Nordic electricity market. The CfDs are typically available for the next two months, three quarters and three years.…
This paper studies the stochastic modeling of market drawdown events and the fair valuation of insurance contracts based on drawdowns. We model the asset drawdown process as the current relative distance from the historical maximum of the asset value. We first consider a vanilla insurance contract whereby the protectio…
In this paper we study a model-based approach to calculating approximately optimal policies in Markovian Decision Processes. In particular, we derive novel bounds on the loss of using a policy derived from a factored linear model, a class of models which generalize numerous previous models out of those that come with s…
Tensor CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) decomposition has wide applications in statistical learning of latent variable models and in data mining. In this paper, we propose fast and randomized tensor CP decomposition algorithms based on sketching. We build on the idea of count sketches, but introduce many novel ideas which are un…
We study a stochastic control approach to managed futures portfolios. Building on the Schwartz 97 stochastic convenience yield model for commodity prices, we formulate a utility maximization problem for dynamically trading a single-maturity futures or multiple futures contracts over a finite horizon. By analyzing the a…
The paper explores coalescent contractions in contractible spaces, providing criteria and examples.
problem Existence and absence of coalescent contractions in contractible spaces.
method Analysis of contractible finite simplicial complexes and criteria for coalescent contractions.
result Criteria for contractible finite simplicial complexes that ensure no coalescent contractions.
We will survey the work on the topology of Out(Fn) in the last 20 years or so. Much of the development is driven by the tantalizing analogy with mapping class groups. Unfortunately, Out(Fn) is more complicated and less well-behaved. Culler and Vogtmann constructed Outer Space Xn, the analog of Teichmüller spac…
Paper proposes new methods for improving interatomic potentials.
problem Limitations of conventional SO(2) Linear architectures in MLIPs.
method Direct Cartesian construction, recursive Clebsch-Gordan construction, Edge Complex Product Basis, Radial Rotary Complex Attention.
result TECE-OAM-RRA-1.0 achieves SOTA performance on Matbench Discovery.
Computable contracts simplify financial transactions and reduce legal costs.
problem Difficulty in querying, executing, and analyzing text-based financial contracts.
method Develop a Contract Definition Language and illustrate use cases.
result Substantial improvements in customer experience and cost reduction.
This paper provides a methodology for fast and accurate pricing of the long-dated contracts that arise as the building blocks of insurance and pension fund agreements. It applies the recursive marginal quantization (RMQ) and joint recursive marginal quantization (JRMQ) algorithms outside the framework of traditional ri…
In an online contract selection problem there is a seller which offers a set of contracts to sequentially arriving buyers whose types are drawn from an unknown distribution. If there exists a profitable contract for the buyer in the offered set, i.e., a contract with payoff higher than the payoff of not accepting any c…
Optimal execution strategy for merger & acquisition contracts with price impact.
problem Optimal execution and pricing of financial derivatives in M&A deals.
method Indifference utility arguments, considering linear and nonlinear contracts.
result Linear contracts are more expensive and vulnerable to manipulation.
This paper develops a method to select a reference contract for multi-contract quoting to minimize execution risk.
problem Minimizing execution risk in multi-contract quoting sequences.
method Develops a diagnostic framework using order-flow Hawkes forecasts and CLF to select a stable reference contract.
result Event-history and LOB-state signals offer complementary views for reference-contract selection.
A recurring problem when building probabilistic latent variable models is regularization and model selection, for instance, the choice of the dimensionality of the latent space. In the context of belief networks with latent variables, this problem has been adressed with Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) employing…
Proposes a probabilistic framework for smart contract risk quantification.
problem Quantifying financial risk of smart contract cyber attacks and failures.
method Probabilistic graph-theoretical framework using bond percolation models.
result Analytical results and numerical examples for aggregate loss distribution.
We consider a general framework of optimal mechanism design under adverse selection and ambiguity about the type distribution of agents. We prove the existence of optimal mechanisms under minimal assumptions on the contract space and prove that centralized contracting implemented via mechanisms is equivalent to delegat…
In case of the heat flow on the free loop space of a closed Riemannian manifold non-triviality of Morse homology for semi-flows is established by constructing a natural isomorphism to singular homology of the loop space. The construction is also new in finite dimensions. The main idea is to build a Morse filtration usi…
Improved security of smart contracts by classifying them into four categories.
problem Detecting and classifying vulnerabilities in smart contracts efficiently.
method Used AWD-LSTM for multi-class classification, addressing class imbalance.
result Achieved a weighted average Fbeta score of 90.0%.
Study on contracting maps and their rigidity under curvature constraints.
problem Rigidity of contracting maps between manifolds with positive curvature.
method Analysis of curvature pinching and contracting conditions involving singular values.
result Established the relation between curvature pinching and contracting conditions.
We study locally compact contractive local groups, that is, locally compact local groups with a contractive pseudo-automorphism. We prove that if such an object is locally connected, then it is locally isomorphic to a Lie group. We also prove a related structure theorem for locally compact contractive local groups whic…
Study shows some contractible complexes can't have certain immersions.
problem Understanding non-positive immersions in contractible complexes.
method Provided counterexamples to a conjecture by Wise.
result Some contractible complexes do not have non-positive immersions.
This paper presents some partial answers to the following question. QUESTION. If a normal space X is the union of an increasing sequence of open sets U(1), U(2), U(3) ... such that each U(n) contracts to a point in X, must X be contractible? The main results of the paper are: THEOREM 1. If a normal space X is the union…
The simplicial volume of non-R^3 contractible 3-manifolds is infinite.
problem Characterizing contractible 3-manifolds based on their simplicial volume.
method Analyzing the simplicial volume of contractible 3-manifolds and open 3-manifolds.
result The Euclidean space is the unique contractible 3-manifold with vanishing minimal volume.
Machine learning algorithms learn from data and use data from databases that are mutable; therefore, the data and the results of machine learning cannot be fully trusted. Also, the machine learning process is often difficult to automate. A unified analytical framework for trustable machine learning has been presented i…
Study efficient derivative computation for nondifferentiable maps in machine learning.
problem Efficiently compute derivatives of fixed-point of nondifferentiable contractions.
method Iterative Differentiation (ITD), Approximate Implicit Differentiation (AID), and New Stochastic Implicit Differentiation (NSID).
result Established convergence rates for ITD, AID, and NSID, matching or improving smooth setting rates.
Study on reinsurance decisions using mean-variance criterion with irreversible contracts.
problem Optimizing reinsurance premiums and contracts in a Stackelberg game with irreversible contracts.
method Unified singular control framework applied to both discrete and continuous time reinsurance contracts.
result A single once-for-all reinsurance contract is preferred over multiple contracts, and the signing time is crucial.
Optimal contracts help principals delegate data collection in decentralized ML.
problem Dealing with information asymmetries in decentralized ML.
method Design of optimal and near-optimal contracts addressing uncertainty in model quality and performance.
result Simple linear contracts achieve 1-1/e fraction of optimal utility.
Optimal contracts are found for agents with quadratic effort costs.
problem Finding optimal contracts in principal-agent problems with quadratic effort costs.
method Modeling the problem using Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations and proving the existence of classical solutions.
result Existence of optimal contracts for agents with quadratic effort costs is proven.