Proposes a method for generating prediction intervals in dose-response models using conformal prediction.
problem Uncertainty quantification in continuous treatments for personalized healthcare decisions.
method Causal dose-response problem framed as covariate shift, using weighted conformal prediction with propensity estimation and kernel functions.
result Demonstrates the significance of covariate shift assumptions for robust prediction intervals.
Non-negative matrix factorization models based on a hierarchical Gamma-Poisson structure capture user and item behavior effectively in extremely sparse data sets, making them the ideal choice for collaborative filtering applications. Hierarchical Poisson factorization (HPF) in particular has proved successful for scala…
We propose and analyze sequential design methods for the problem of ranking several response surfaces. Namely, given L≥2 response surfaces over a continuous input space X, the aim is to efficiently find the index of the minimal response across the entire X. The response surfaces are not known and ha…
Treatment effects can be estimated from observational data as the difference in potential outcomes. In this paper, we address the challenge of estimating the potential outcome when treatment-dose levels can vary continuously over time. Further, the outcome variable may not be measured at a regular frequency. Our propos…
Paper develops methods to estimate derivative of dose-response curve for continuous treatments.
problem Estimating the derivative of the dose-response curve for continuous treatments.
method Doubly robust (DR) inference method using kernel smoothing, bias-corrected IPW and DR estimators.
result Proposes novel bias-corrected IPW and DR estimators for continuous treatments.
Proposes a method to estimate causal effects of continuous treatments using instrumental variables.
problem Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments in the presence of unmeasured confounders.
method Introduces a novel framework using instrumental variables and a uniform regular weighting function to identify and estimate average dose-response functions.
result Establishes the asymptotic properties of the proposed methods for estimating average dose-response functions.
Proposes DeepSDRF for continuous treatment recommendation from clinical survival data.
problem Continuous treatment recommendation in medical settings with survival data.
method Deep Survival Dose Response Function (DeepSDRF) for learning conditional average dose response (CADR) function.
result Similar performance of recommender algorithms based on random search and reinforcement learning.
Method bounds continuous-valued treatment effects when confounding variables are hidden.
problem Inferring causal effects of continuous treatments when hidden confounders are present.
method Novel methodology to bound average and conditional average continuous-valued treatment effects.
result Method gives tighter coverage of true dose-response curve than existing methods.
ContiVAE estimates individual dose-response curves from unobserved confounders using observational data.
problem Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments considering unobserved confounders.
method Variational auto-encoder with a Tilted Gaussian prior distribution modeling hidden confounders as latent variables.
result ContiVAE outperforms existing methods by up to 62% in predicting individual dose-response curves.
Estimating the effect of a treatment on a given outcome, conditioned on a vector of covariates, is central in many applications. However, learning the impact of a treatment on a continuous temporal response, when the covariates suffer extensively from measurement error and even the timing of the treatments is uncertain…
Paper introduces new estimator for continuous treatment effects.
problem Estimating the average dose-response function of continuous treatments.
method Utilizes ADML and DML tools, with a novel debiasing method.
result Proves asymptotic normality and shows good performance in simulations.
BART is extended to handle various response variables.
problem Modeling nonlinear regression functions for diverse response types.
method Generalized Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (GBART) for exponential family distributions.
result The posterior concentrates at a minimax rate for certain response distributions.
This paper extends a Kyle model to include price-responsive traders, revealing new dynamics and equilibria.
problem Real-world market dynamics involve price-responsive traders, affecting market equilibrium and insider profits.
method Developed a continuous-time Kyle model with two types of price-responsive traders (momentum and contrarian), leading to a forward-backward Riccati system for equilibrium.
result The model shows that feedback effects can lead to multiple equilibria and amplify price informativeness.
Efficient methods estimate concordance probability for big data.
problem Efficiently calculating concordance probability in large datasets.
method Proposes two estimation methods for discrete and continuous settings.
result Estimators are accurate and computationally efficient.
New neural network models for complex functional data analysis.
problem Complex relations between functional predictors and responses.
method Function-on-Function regression models using neural networks with continuous hidden layers.
result Demonstrated power and flexibility in handling complex functional models.
Estimating what would be an individual's potential response to varying levels of exposure to a treatment is of high practical relevance for several important fields, such as healthcare, economics and public policy. However, existing methods for learning to estimate counterfactual outcomes from observational data are ei…
Method estimates treatment effects with continuous values, correcting for confounding.
problem Estimating treatment effects with continuous values, dealing with confounding.
method Two-stage kernel ridge regression: first stage learns response, second stage corrects for distribution shift.
result Optimal learning bounds achieved without estimating treatment density, adapts to unknown overlap and kernel spectral decay.
A new method for Gaussian Processes handles mixed continuous and categorical inputs.
problem Modeling cross-correlations between continuous and categorical data.
method Low-Rank Correlation (LRC) method for Gaussian Processes with flexible rank approximation.
result LRC outperforms existing methods in estimating cross-correlations and predicting response surfaces.
We propose Dirichlet Process mixtures of Generalized Linear Models (DP-GLM), a new method of nonparametric regression that accommodates continuous and categorical inputs, and responses that can be modeled by a generalized linear model. We prove conditions for the asymptotic unbiasedness of the DP-GLM regression mean fu…
Kernel method estimates long-term effects from short-term data.
problem Estimating long-term effects from short-term data in continuous actions.
method Kernel ridge regression to embed and extrapolate long-term effects.
result Uniform consistency and nonasymptotic error bounds for the estimator.
In this paper, we propose three online algorithms for submodular maximisation. The first one, Mono-Frank-Wolfe, reduces the number of per-function gradient evaluations from T1/2 [Chen2018Online] and T3/2 [chen2018projection] to 1, and achieves a (1−1/e)-regret bound of O(T4/5). The second one, Bandit-F…
We study the problem of estimating the continuous response over time to interventions using observational time series---a retrospective dataset where the policy by which the data are generated is unknown to the learner. We are motivated by applications where response varies by individuals and therefore, estimating resp…
Item response theory (IRT) models are widely used in psychometrics and educational measurement, being deployed in many high stakes tests such as the GRE aptitude test. IRT has largely focused on estimation of a single latent trait (e.g. ability) that remains static through the collection of item responses. However, in …
POTD estimates SDR subspace using optimal transport for binary response.
problem Insufficient performance of existing SDR methods for categorical responses.
method Principal optimal transport direction (POTD) using optimal transport coupling.
result POTD exclusively estimates SDR subspace for error-free class labels.
A new model for latent class analysis with weighted responses.
problem Limitation of latent class model for real-world data with continuous or negative responses.
method Proposed a novel generative model, the weighted latent class model (WLCM).
result The proposed WLCM is more realistic and general than the latent class model.
Proves existence of optimal shallow neural networks with ReLU activation.
problem Proving the existence of optimal shallow feedforward networks with ReLU activation.
method Proves existence of global minima in the loss landscape for continuous target functions using shallow feedforward neural networks with ReLU activation.
result Existence of global minima in the loss landscape for shallow feedforward networks with ReLU activation.
Monitoring physiological responses to hemodynamic stress can help in determining appropriate treatment and ensuring good patient outcomes. Physicians' intuition suggests that the human body has a number of physiological response patterns to hemorrhage which escalate as blood loss continues, however the exact etiology a…
In marketing we are often confronted with a continuous stream of responses to marketing messages. Such streaming data provide invaluable information regarding message effectiveness and segmentation. However, streaming data are hard to analyze using conventional methods: their high volume and the fact that they are cont…
Objects are represented in sensory systems by continuous manifolds due to sensitivity of neuronal responses to changes in physical features such as location, orientation, and intensity. What makes certain sensory representations better suited for invariant decoding of objects by downstream networks? We present a theory…
A new neural network model for ordinal regression.
problem Ordinal regression with non-proportional odds.
method Interpretable neural network for both continuous and discrete responses, training a non-linear neural network as a coefficient function.
result N3POM preserves interpretability while offering flexibility. A new model estimates mixed memberships for categorical data with weighted responses.
problem Limited applicability of existing GoM model to weighted categorical data.
method Proposes Weighted Grade of Membership (WGoM) model, relaxing distribution constraints.
result WGoM can describe any response matrix with finite distinct elements.
In this paper we present a nonparametric method for extending functional regression methodology to the situation where more than one functional covariate is used to predict a functional response. Borrowing the idea from Kadri et al. (2010a), the method, which support mixed discrete and continuous explanatory variables,…
When learning a hidden Markov model (HMM), sequen- tial observations can often be complemented by real-valued summary response variables generated from the path of hid- den states. Such settings arise in numerous domains, includ- ing many applications in biology, like motif discovery and genome annotation. In this pape…
The study uses response theory to understand RNNs processing input signals.
problem Understanding how RNNs process sequential data.
method Deriving a Volterra series representation for SRNNs output using response theory from nonequilibrium statistical mechanics.
result SRNNs can be viewed as kernel machines operating on a reproducing kernel Hilbert space associated with the response feature.
Item Response Theory (IRT) aims to assess latent abilities of respondents based on the correctness of their answers in aptitude test items with different difficulty levels. In this paper, we propose the β3-IRT model, which models continuous responses and can generate a much enriched family of Item Characteristic Cur…
New kernel methods estimate complex causal relationships.
problem Estimating nonparametric causal functions like dose-response curves.
method Kernel ridge regression with decomposition property.
result Uniform consistency with finite sample rates proved.
MSRL learns a representation maximizing mutual info with response variables.
problem Learning sufficient representations for complex, multi-dimensional data.
method Variational mutual information, deep neural networks, generalized Dudley's inequality.
result MSRL achieves consistent and accurate representation learning.
Paper introduces RPWithPrior for efficient label differential privacy in regression.
problem Protecting user privacy in regression tasks with minimal accuracy loss.
method Modeling responses as continuous random variables, avoiding discretization; estimating optimal intervals for randomized responses.
result RPWithPrior algorithm guarantees ε-label differential privacy and outperforms existing methods.
Proposes estimators for complex dose-response curves using kernel methods.
problem Estimating complex dose-response curves with continuous treatments, mediators, and covariates.
method Kernel ridge regression with sequential kernel embedding technique.
result Simple estimators for mediated and time-varying dose response curves with nonasymptotic uniform rates.
We derive an analytic formula for the hydrodynamic Green function and the Robin function on every orientable surface admitting a hydrodynamic Killing vector field. Closed-form expressions are provided for all fourteen canonical Riemann surfaces, covering both compact and non-compact cases; the formulae satisfy the slip…
Bayesian method predicts runtime metrics for fog manufacturing.
problem Accurate prediction of runtime performance metrics in fog manufacturing.
method Bayesian sparse regression for multivariate mixed responses.
result Enhanced prediction and statistical inferences of runtime metrics.
New method selects causal features from diverse data types.
problem Discovering causal relationships from non-continuous data types.
method Transformation-Model (TRAM) based Invariant Causal Prediction (TRAM-ICP) with TRAM-GCM and TRAM-Wald tests.
result Improved power and type I error control for diverse response types.
Develops conformalized prediction intervals for bounded continuous outcomes.
problem Predicting continuous outcomes within bounded ranges, especially when models are misspecified.
method Conformal prediction intervals based on transformation regression models, accounting for heteroscedasticity and asymmetry.
result Valid finite-sample coverage confirmed in simulations and real data applications.
This paper presents a new approach for Gaussian process (GP) regression for large datasets. The approach involves partitioning the regression input domain into multiple local regions with a different local GP model fitted in each region. Unlike existing local partitioned GP approaches, we introduce a technique for patc…
Proposes VCNet for estimating ADRFs of continuous treatments.
problem Estimating ADRFs of continuous treatments from observational data.
method VCNet for improved model expressiveness and continuity; targeted regularization for finite sample performance.
result Improves model expressiveness and continuity of ADRFs.
New Bayesian method for sparse multidimensional item response theory.
problem Sparse interpretable explanations for questionnaire data.
method Bayesian EM algorithm for sparse factor loadings.
result Reliable recovery of factor dimensionality and latent structure.
This paper introduces a novel recalibration method for multivariate forecasts.
problem Multivariate calibration for potentially misspecified models.
method Local mappings between marginal probability integral transform values and observed space, using K-nearest neighbors or normalizing flows.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on currency exchange rate and childhood malnutrition data.
Optimal ability estimation in adaptive testing with binary responses.
problem Estimating a continuous ability parameter from sequential binary responses.
method Adaptive selection of questions to maximize Fisher information, updating estimate using method-of-moments, and deciding accuracy with a test statistic.
result Fisher-tracking strategy achieves optimal performance in fixed-confidence and fixed-budget regimes.