Bayesian approach models match and non-match score distributions over continuous covariates.
problem Complex evaluation of model performance over continuous covariates in biometric verification.
method Generative model of score distributions, mixture models, local basis functions, Bayesian inference.
result Accurate and effective method for studying model performance over continuous covariates.
Solves steering problem with continuous time, Hilbert-Schmidt cost, and matrix ODEs.
problem Fixed horizon linear quadratic covariance steering in continuous time with a specific terminal cost.
method Formulates necessary conditions as a coupled matrix ODE two-point boundary value problem, designs a matricial recursive algorithm, and proves convergence.
result Proposes and proves the convergence of a matricial recursive algorithm for solving the steering problem.
We quantify causal bias in continuous treatment settings.
problem Identifying and quantifying causal bias in continuous treatment scenarios.
method Developed a novel characterization of causal bias in structural causal models, proving conditions for zero bias and efficient estimation.
result Causal bias can be estimated efficiently under certain structural equation restrictions, allowing for causal regularization of predictive models.
New similarity measure for covariate shift improves nonparametric regression rates.
problem Improving nonparametric regression under covariate shift.
method Introducing a new similarity measure based on probability ratios.
result Shows a sharper rate of convergence compared to transfer exponent.
SL(n) covariant valuations on Orlicz spaces are represented and characterized.
problem Representing SL(n) covariant valuations on Orlicz spaces.
method Representation theorem established for continuous, SL(n) covariant vector-valued valuations.
result Unique characterization of SL(n) covariant valuations as moment vectors.
This paper tackles continuous covariate shift by adaptively training predictors.
problem Continuous covariate shift where input distributions change over time.
method Online density ratio estimation method to adaptively train predictors.
result Excess risk guarantee for the predictor through dynamic regret bound.
New model detects communities in networks with signed, continuous weights.
problem Detect communities in networks with signed, continuous weights.
method Heterogeneous Block Covariance Model (HBCM) with variational EM algorithm.
result Provable consistent estimates of group memberships.
Classification of SL(n) covariant valuations on Orlicz spaces.
problem Classifying continuous SL(n) covariant valuations on Orlicz spaces.
method Complete classification without symmetric assumptions, focusing on moment matrix and a new functional in dimension two.
result The moment matrix is the only SL(n) covariant valuation for n≥3, and a new functional appears in dimension two.
We introduce and study covariance fields of distributions on a Riemannian manifold. At each point on the manifold, covariance is defined to be a symmetric and positive definite (2,0)-tensor. Its product with the metric tensor specifies a linear operator on the respected tangent space. Collectively, these operators form…
Motivated by positive energy representations, we classify those continuous central extensions of the compactly supported gauge Lie algebra that are covariant under a 1-parameter group of transformations of the base manifold.
In this paper we present a nonparametric method for extending functional regression methodology to the situation where more than one functional covariate is used to predict a functional response. Borrowing the idea from Kadri et al. (2010a), the method, which support mixed discrete and continuous explanatory variables,…
Many scientific questions require estimating the effects of continuous treatments. Outcome modeling and weighted regression based on the generalized propensity score are the most commonly used methods to evaluate continuous effects. However, these techniques may be sensitive to model misspecification, extreme weights o…
Method estimates treatment effects with continuous values, correcting for confounding.
problem Estimating treatment effects with continuous values, dealing with confounding.
method Two-stage kernel ridge regression: first stage learns response, second stage corrects for distribution shift.
result Optimal learning bounds achieved without estimating treatment density, adapts to unknown overlap and kernel spectral decay.
Method solves Gaussian graphical models on ladder graphs efficiently.
problem Solving Gaussian graphical models on ladder graphs efficiently.
method Proposes a method that depends on the position of zeros in local covariance matrices.
result Efficiently solves Gaussian graphical models on ladder graphs under certain conditions.
Classifies SL(n) covariant matrix-valued valuations on Lp-spaces.
problem Classifying SL(n) covariant matrix-valued valuations on Lp-spaces.
method Established a complete classification for continuous and SL(n) covariant matrix-valued valuations on Lp(Rn,|x|2dx), eliminating matrix symmetry assumption.
result Unique characterization of such valuations by the moment matrix in n>2, rotation matrix in 2D.
Longitudinal study designs are indispensable for studying disease progression. Inferring covariate effects from longitudinal data, however, requires interpretable methods that can model complicated covariance structures and detect nonlinear effects of both categorical and continuous covariates, as well as their interac…
Markets composed of stocks with capitalization processes represented by positive continuous semimartingales are studied under the condition that the market excess growth rate is bounded away from zero. The following examples of these markets are given: i) a market with a singular covariance matrix and instantaneous rel…
Proposes a continuous relaxation for discrete Bayesian optimization.
problem Efficiently optimizing discrete data with limited target observations.
method Continuous relaxation of objective function, incorporating prior knowledge.
result Optimization can be computationally tractable with few observations.
This monograph develops the theory of covariant Schrödinger semigroups acting on sections of vector bundles over noncompact Riemannian manifolds from scratch. Contents: I. Sobolev spaces on vector bundles II. Smooth heat kernels on vector bundles III. Basis differential operators in Riemannian manifolds IV. Some specif…
Graphical models for covariance matrices improve structure learning.
problem Learning structure in graphical models for covariance matrices.
method Structural learning via ℓ1-penalized loss minimization. result Method outperforms alternatives in simulations and real-world applications.
Proposes a method for generating prediction intervals in dose-response models using conformal prediction.
problem Uncertainty quantification in continuous treatments for personalized healthcare decisions.
method Causal dose-response problem framed as covariate shift, using weighted conformal prediction with propensity estimation and kernel functions.
result Demonstrates the significance of covariate shift assumptions for robust prediction intervals.
Neural models learn continuous-time Markov chain transition rates from data.
problem Learning transition rates for complex stochastic systems.
method Neural networks to model nonlinear transition rates from observed data.
result Neural models outperform traditional methods in accuracy.
We focus on the challenge of finding a diverse collection of quality solutions on complex continuous domains. While quality diver-sity (QD) algorithms like Novelty Search with Local Competition (NSLC) and MAP-Elites are designed to generate a diverse range of solutions, these algorithms require a large number of evalua…
Standard models assign disease progression to discrete categories or stages based on well-characterized clinical markers. However, such a system is potentially at odds with our understanding of the underlying biology, which in highly complex systems may support a (near-)continuous evolution of disease from inception to…
The paper explores using historical data to improve clinical trial analysis by optimizing covariate weights.
problem Limited covariates in small clinical trials reduce the effectiveness of analysis.
method Leverage historical data to pre-specify covariate weights as a composite covariate.
result A composite covariate improves the cost/benefit ratio and reduces overfitting in small clinical trials.
Develops a hedging method for multi-asset derivatives with correlation risk.
problem Hedging multi-asset derivatives exposed to correlation and covariance risk.
method Combines dynamic trading with static hedging instruments using Galtchouk--Kunita--Watanabe decomposition.
result Explicit semi-static replication formulas for covariance swaps and geometric dispersion trades.
A complete classification is obtained of continuous, translation invariant, Minkowski valuations on an m-dimensional complex vector space which are covariant under the complex special linear group.
We consider the question of learning in general topological vector spaces. By exploiting known (or parametrized) covariance structures, our Main Theorem demonstrates that any continuous linear map corresponds to a certain isomorphism of embedded Hilbert spaces. By inverting this isomorphism and extending continuously, …
Estimating the effect of a treatment on a given outcome, conditioned on a vector of covariates, is central in many applications. However, learning the impact of a treatment on a continuous temporal response, when the covariates suffer extensively from measurement error and even the timing of the treatments is uncertain…
DPERC efficiently estimates covariance matrices for mixed data with missing values.
problem Estimating covariance matrices for datasets with missing values and mixed features.
method Direct Parameter Estimation for Randomly Missing Data with Categorical Features (DPERC).
result DPERC outperforms other methods in estimating covariance matrices for mixed data with missing values.
This tutorial introduces the CMA Evolution Strategy (ES), where CMA stands for Covariance Matrix Adaptation. The CMA-ES is a stochastic, or randomized, method for real-parameter (continuous domain) optimization of non-linear, non-convex functions. We try to motivate and derive the algorithm from intuitive concepts and …
Study predictive performance of linear regression with random functional covariates.
problem Theoretical predictive performance of linear regression with random functional covariates.
method Theoretical analysis of ridge and ridge-less least-squares regression with random functional covariates.
result Probabilistic bounds on predictive excess risk for random functional covariates.
The paper tackles extrapolation in extreme regions of regression problems.
problem Extrapolation on the tails of covariates in continuous regression problems.
method Statistical regression on a subsample of furthest observations, focusing on their angular components, using multivariate regular variation theory.
result Quantifies predictive performance on tail regions in terms of excess risk, presenting it as a finite sample risk bound with a bias-variance decomposition.
Kernel ridge regression for causal inference with missing data.
problem Estimating treatment effects with missing data in selected samples.
method Kernel ridge regression estimators for nonparametric dose response curves and semiparametric treatment effects.
result Uniform consistency and finite sample rates for continuous treatment, root-n consistency for discrete treatment.
Estimates treatment effects in randomized experiments with non-compliance.
problem Estimating distributional treatment effects in experiments with imperfect compliance.
method Proposes a regression-adjusted estimator based on distribution regression with Neyman-orthogonal moment conditions.
result Achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and demonstrates favorable performance in simulations and real data.
JME continually estimates data moments privately and accurately.
problem Private and accurate continual estimation of data moments.
method Uses matrix mechanism and joint sensitivity analysis.
result Improves accuracy in estimating mean and covariance with reduced noise.
CDRE estimates density ratios in streaming data without historical samples.
problem Online learning with shifting data distributions.
method Iterative estimation of density ratios between initial and current distributions.
result CDRE outperforms standard DRE in estimating divergences between distributions.
We solve continuous-time latent SDE identifiability using diffusion shifts.
problem Identifiability of latent SDEs in continuous-time time series.
method Environment-induced shifts in diffusion covariance for additive-noise latent SDEs.
result Two diagonal diffusion regimes with distinct variance ratios identify latent coordinates up to permutation and scaling.
SGDm with fixed step-size diverges under covariate shift, similar to a parametric oscillator.
problem SGDm with fixed step-size diverges under covariate shift.
method Approximated learning system as a time-varying system of ODEs and characterized divergence/convergence modes.
result SGDm with fixed step-size can diverge under covariate shift, similar to resonance in oscillators.
A novel approach stores encoded images as centroids and covariance matrices to improve classification accuracy with less memory.
problem Catastrophic forgetting and memory limitations in continual learning.
method Trains autoencoders with Neural Style Transfer to encode images, replay encoded episodes to avoid forgetting, and use centroids and covariance matrices for pseudo-images when memory is full.
result Increases classification accuracy by 13-17% over state-of-the-art methods on benchmark datasets, while requiring 78% less storage space.
Efficient method for learning continuous exponential families beyond Gaussian.
problem Learning continuous exponential families with unbounded support.
method Interaction Screening approach for scalable learning of continuous graphical models.
result Our estimator maintains similar accuracy and sample complexity scalings compared to alternative approaches, while improving run-time.
Paper estimates GMMs with unknown covariances using sparse regularization.
problem Estimating GMMs with unknown diagonal covariances from samples.
method Employed Beurling-LASSO (BLASSO) for sparse estimation of component means, covariances, and weights.
result Established non-asymptotic recovery guarantees with nearly parametric convergence rates.
When estimating high-frequency covariance (quadratic covariation) of two arbitrary assets observed asynchronously, simple assumptions, such as independence, are usually imposed on the relationship between the prices process and the observation times. In this paper, we introduce a general endogenous two-dimensional nonp…
Active data collection improves convergence rates in operator learning.
problem Improving convergence rates in operator learning with linear target and stochastic input.
method Active data collection strategies with mean-zero stochastic process and continuous covariance kernels.
result Achieves arbitrarily fast error convergence rates with eigenvalue decay of covariance kernels.
Estimates the effect of time-varying treatments using machine learning.
problem Estimating the impact of time-varying treatments over multiple periods.
method Difference-in-Differences framework with double/debiased machine learning.
result Higher vaccination rates reduce COVID-19 mortality after several weeks.
The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a generative model with continuous latent variables where a pair of probabilistic encoder (bottom-up) and decoder (top-down) is jointly learned by stochastic gradient variational Bayes. We first elaborate Gaussian VAE, approximating the local covariance matrix of the decoder as an o…
Analog method solves portfolio optimization problems faster and more efficiently.
problem Accurate covariance matrix estimation and fast optimal portfolio selection for financial applications.
method Two-step process using equilibrium propagation and analog Hopfield networks.
result Fully analog pipeline calculates optimal portfolios in energy-efficient manner.
We prove an explicit residue formula for a meromorphic continuation of conformally covariant integral operators between differential forms on Rn and on its hyperplane. The results provide a simple and new construction of the conformally covariant differential symmetry breaking operators between differential fo…