Develops analysis of Hölder continuous mappings on Heisenberg groups.
problem Analyzing Hölder continuous mappings on Heisenberg groups.
method Theory of distributional Jacobians and pullbacks of differential forms.
result Simple proof of a generalization of the Gromov non-embedding theorem and new results about Hölder homotopy groups.
Neural Manifold ODEs improve manifold data modeling.
problem Adapting deep generative models to non-Euclidean spaces.
method Introducing Neural Manifold ODEs for manifold generalization and continuous probability computation.
result Improves density estimation and downstream tasks on arbitrary manifolds.
Develops a new method to measure causal effects in continuous and discrete settings.
problem Measuring direct causal effects in complex scenarios with continuous and interventionally changing variables.
method Probabilistic Easy Variational Causal Effect (PEACE) method, developed for both continuous and discrete cases.
result PEACE can measure causal effects under various conditions and is stable under small changes.
We propose to meta-learn causal structures based on how fast a learner adapts to new distributions arising from sparse distributional changes, e.g. due to interventions, actions of agents and other sources of non-stationarities. We show that under this assumption, the correct causal structural choices lead to faster ad…
New framework predicts 5-year glucose values with missing data.
problem Significant missing data in longitudinal glucose studies.
method Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS) with missing responses analysis.
result Identifies new factors affecting long-term glucose evolution.
Change detection involves segmenting sequential data such that observations in the same segment share some desired properties. Multivariate change detection continues to be a challenging problem due to the variety of ways change points can be correlated across channels and the potentially poor signal-to-noise ratio on …
Paper detects hierarchical changes in latent variable models from data streams.
problem Detecting changes at three levels: data distribution, latent variables, and number of latent variables.
method Information-theoretic framework using MDL and DNML for change detection.
result Effective in detecting changes with good interpretability.
In this paper we propose a general derivative pricing framework which employs decoupled time-changed (DTC) Lévy processes to model the underlying asset of contingent claims. A DTC Lévy process is a generalized time-changed Lévy process whose continuous and pure jump parts are allowed to follow separate random time scal…
We study the stability of several no-arbitrage conditions with respect to absolutely continuous, but not necessarily equivalent, changes of measure. We first consider models based on continuous semimartingales and show that no-arbitrage conditions weaker than NA and NFLVR are always stable. Then, in the context of gene…
A crucial challenge in image-based modeling of biomedical data is to identify trends and features that separate normality and pathology. In many cases, the morphology of the imaged object exhibits continuous change as it deviates from normality, and thus a generative model can be trained to model this morphological con…
Modeling business cycles via collective risk fluctuations in economic agents' risk space.
problem Understanding and predicting business cycles through economic agents' risk dynamics.
method Continuous numerical risk grades for economic agents, modeling collective economic variables and flows as functions of risk coordinates, deriving equations for their evolution.
result Business and credit cycles are explained as fluctuations of collective economic variables and their mean risks in the risk space of economic agents.
CRN learns causal models using neural networks, scaling with variables and leveraging prior knowledge.
problem Challenges in learning causal models, especially scalability and leveraging prior knowledge.
method Causal Relational Networks (CRN) using continuous representations and previously learned information.
result CRN achieves high accuracy and quick adaptation to new causal models on synthetic data.
Acute kidney injury (AKI) commonly occurs in hospitalized patients and can lead to serious medical complications. In order to optimally predict AKI before it develops at any time during a hospital stay, we present a novel framework in which AKI is continually predicted automatically from EHR data over the entire hospit…
Estimates causal effect using proxies in multi-domain settings.
problem Estimating causal effect in settings with unobserved confounders across domains.
method Proposes estimation techniques using proxy variables for discrete or categorical data.
result Proves identifiability and consistency of causal effect estimation.
PDD detects concept drift using explainable AI, improving model performance in dynamic environments.
problem Detecting and adapting to concept drift in predictive models.
method Profile Drift Detection (PDD) using Partial Dependence Profiles (PDPs).
result PDD outperforms existing methods in detecting concept drift and maintaining high predictive performance.
Making inferences from data streams is a pervasive problem in many modern data analysis applications. But it requires to address the problem of continuous model updating and adapt to changes or drifts in the underlying data generating distribution. In this paper, we approach these problems from a Bayesian perspective c…
We introduce a new class of processes for the evaluation of multivariate equity derivatives. The proposed setting is well suited for the application of the standard copula function theory to processes, rather than variables, and easily enables to enforce the martingale pricing requirement. The martingale condition is i…
Extends Neural ODEs to model discrete changes in continuous systems.
problem Lack of explicit termination time in existing Neural ODE formulations.
method Introduces neural event functions to implicitly define termination criteria.
result Models discrete changes in continuous systems without prior knowledge.
Objects are represented in sensory systems by continuous manifolds due to sensitivity of neuronal responses to changes in physical features such as location, orientation, and intensity. What makes certain sensory representations better suited for invariant decoding of objects by downstream networks? We present a theory…
New method combines domain changes and sparse mixing for better latent variable learning.
problem Challenges in identifying latent variables due to insufficient domain changes and violated sparsity constraints.
method Combines sufficient changes and sparse mixing constraints, using domain encoding networks and variational autoencoders.
result Identifiability of latent variables achieved with less restrictive constraints.
Sustainability became the most important component of world development, as countries worldwide fight the battle against the climate change. To understand the effects of climate change, the ecological footprint, along with the biocapacity should be observed. The big part of the ecological footprint, the carbon footprin…
OSAMD adapts online to changing distributions with limited labels.
problem Models struggle with continual distribution shifts and expensive labeling in changing environments.
method Online Active Continual Adaptation with OSAMD, an online teacher-student structure and margin-based criterion.
result OSAMD achieves favorable dynamic regret bounds under changing environments with limited labels.
Jones polynomial coincidences explored for rational knots.
problem Identifying coincidences in Jones polynomial of rational knots.
method Moves on continued fraction expansion of rational knots, conjectured to generate all coincidences.
result Conjectured moves are sufficient to generate all Jones rational coincidences.
Adapts to shifts in latent subgroup distributions without labeled target data.
problem Adapting to domain shifts when latent subgroup distributions differ.
method Uses concept and proxy variables from source domain, and unlabeled target data.
result Optimal target predictor can be identified and estimated.
Trading strategy uses Hoeffding's Inequality to predict financial regime change.
problem Predicting financial regime change for trading strategies.
method Applies Hoeffding's Inequality to trading performance data.
result Early warning of financial regime change can be detected.
Novel optimization method detects change points in Gaussian data.
problem Detecting change points in univariate Gaussian data sequences.
method Continuous optimization for best subset selection (COMBSS) applied to a reformulated statistical inverse problem.
result Adaptation and evaluation of COMBSS for offline normal mean multiple change-point detection.
Unified Bayesian Optimisation for mixed variables improves performance.
problem Efficient optimisation of problems with both categorical and continuous variables.
method Derive value proposals from the Expected Improvement criterion to optimise both categorical and continuous variables under a single acquisition metric.
result Unified approach significantly outperforms existing methods across mixed-variable tasks.
Paper develops an efficient method for conformal prediction in sparse linear models.
problem Computing conformal prediction sets for sparse linear models is computationally infeasible.
method Numerical continuation techniques to approximate the solution path efficiently.
result The method accurately approximates conformal prediction sets for sparse linear models.
Improves change-point detection for high-dimensional time-series.
problem Uncertainty in latent variable estimation affects change-point detection.
method Proposes multinomial sampling to improve detection rate and reduce delay.
result Results outperform baseline method in experiments.
Discond-VAE separates continuous and discrete factors in data.
problem Separating shared and class-specific variations in real-world data.
method Introduces private and public latent variables to represent continuous and discrete factors, respectively.
result Discond-VAE successfully disentangles class-dependent continuous factors from discrete factors.
Sparse model selection by structural risk minimization leads to a set of a few predictors, ideally a subset of the true predictors. This selection clearly depends on the underlying loss function L~. For linear regression with square loss, the particular (functional) Gradient Boosting variant L2−Boosting exce…
Improves risk and variability measures continuity and consistency.
problem Improving the continuity and consistency of risk and variability measures.
method Analyzes convex and order bounded above functionals on Frechet lattices and Orlicz spaces.
result Order-continuous, law-invariant functionals on Orlicz spaces are strongly consistent everywhere.
This paper extends results of Mortimer and Williams (1991) about changes of probability measure up to a random time under the assumptions that all martingales are continuous and that the random time avoids stopping times. We consider locally absolutely continuous measure changes up to a random time, changes of probabil…
The study tackles modeling high-frequency financial data using continuous distributions, finding them inadequate.
problem Challenges in modeling high-frequency integer price changes with continuous distributions.
method Proposed a modified maximum likelihood estimation procedure to account for the discreteness of high-frequency price changes.
result Traditional GARCH models are not suitable for high-frequency data due to the discreteness of price changes.
In many physical, social or economical phenomena we observe changes of a studied quantity only in discrete, irregularly distributed points in time. The stochastic process used by physicists to describe this kind of variables is the Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW). Despite the popularity of this type of stochastic pr…
A new buffer system improves continual learning in RL agents by adapting to changing environments.
problem Improving RL agents' ability to learn from changing environments over time.
method Multi-timescale replay buffer combined with invariant risk minimization.
result The method shows improvement over baselines in continual learning settings.
Study develops method for estimating causal effects in continuous variables.
problem Lack of methods for estimating causal effects in continuous variables.
method Develops a method independent of data generating models for continuous variable interventions.
result Preserves identifiability of data and applies to any generating models.
CIPNN model tackles continuous latent variables, solving intractable posterior problems.
problem Solving intractable posterior calculation for continuous latent variables.
method Derives analytical solution for posterior of continuous latent variables, proposes CIPNN and CIPAE.
result CIPNN model demonstrates great classification capability, solving problems for continuous latent variables.
We consider the exact path sampling of the squared Bessel process and some other continuous-time Markov processes, such as the CIR model, constant elasticity of variance diffusion model, and hypergeometric diffusions, which can all be obtained from a squared Bessel process by using a change of variable, time and scale …
Detects model changes in data streams using Ddim.
problem Early detection of model changes in data streams.
method Continuous model selection based on Ddim.
result Early warning signals of model changes.
Bayesian optimization tackles mixed discrete-continuous problems with Gaussian processes.
problem Optimizing problems with both discrete and continuous variables using costly simulations.
method Relaxing discrete variables into continuous latent variables, using Bayesian optimization, and incorporating compatibility constraints with Lagrangians.
result Comparative analysis of different mixed Bayesian optimization approaches.
New online imputation method for mixed data improves accuracy and speed.
problem Missing value imputation in online settings for mixed data types.
method Online Gaussian copula model for imputation and change point detection.
result The model improves accuracy and speed, especially on large datasets.
Octagon map accelerates diagonal changes algorithm.
problem Improving the efficiency of diagonal changes algorithm.
method Octagon Farey map as an acceleration.
result Octagon map accelerates diagonal changes algorithm.
Hybrid quantum neural networks predict continuous variables.
problem Predicting continuous variables using quantum computing.
method Quantum classical hybrid neural networks for continuous variable prediction.
result Quantum neural networks outperform classical methods in continuous variable prediction.
The increasing complexity of mobility plus the growing population in cities, together with the importance of privacy when sharing data from vehicles or any device, makes traffic forecasting that uses data from infrastructure and citizens an open and challenging task. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to deal…
Estimating causal models from observational data is a crucial task in data analysis. For continuous-valued data, Shimizu et al. have proposed a linear acyclic non-Gaussian model to understand the data generating process, and have shown that their model is identifiable when the number of data is sufficiently large. Howe…
Framework LiLY recovers latent causal variables from time-series data under distribution shifts.
problem Learning and correcting models under unknown distribution shifts in time-series data.
method LiLY framework that recovers latent causal variables and identifies their relations from temporal data under different distribution shifts.
result The framework reliably identifies time-delayed latent causal influences from observed variables under different distribution changes.
Tree-based regularization improves latent variable inference from related datasets.
problem Inferring latent variables from multiple related datasets in causal systems.
method Tree-Based Regularization (TBR) for sparse changes across environments.
result TBR identifies true latent variables up to simple transformations under sparse changes.