A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper examines how CoCo bonds can enhance financial stability in interconnected banking systems.
CoCos can increase financial fragility in certain network structures.
We develop a pricing model for Sovereign Contingent Convertible bonds (S-CoCo) with payment standstills triggered by a sovereign's Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread. We model CDS spread regime switching, which is prevalent during crises, as a hidden Markov process, coupled with a mean-reverting stochastic process of spr…
Within the context of the banking-related literature on contingent convertible bonds, we comprehensively formalise the design and features of a relatively new type of insurance-linked security, called a contingent convertible catastrophe bond (CocoCat). We begin with a discussion of its design and compare its relative …
The paper introduces CoCoCat bonds for multi-region natural catastrophes, accounting for complex dependencies.
Contingent Convertible bonds (CoCos) are debt instruments that convert into equity or are written down in times of distress. Existing pricing models assume conversion triggers based on market prices and on the assumption that markets can always observe all relevant firm information. But all Cocos issued so far have tri…
After the beginning of the credit and liquidity crisis, financial institutions have been considering creating a convertible-bond type contract focusing on Capital. Under the terms of this contract, a bond is converted into equity if the authorities deem the institution to be under-capitalized. This paper discusses this…
We consider in this paper some structured financial products, known as reverse convertible notes, that resulted in substantial losses to certain buyers of these notes in recent years. We shall focus on specific reverse convertible notes known as "Autocallable Optimization Securities with Contingent Protection Linked to…
Paper introduces EEMs for pricing contingent claim returns.
We characterize the small-time asymptotic behavior of the exit probability of a Lévy process out of a two-sided interval and of the law of its overshoot, conditionally on the terminal value of the process. The asymptotic expansions are given in the form of a first-order term and a precise computable error bound. As an …
Sensorimotor contingency theory offers a promising account of the nature of perception, a topic rarely addressed in the robotics community. We propose a developmental framework to address the problem of the autonomous acquisition of sensorimotor contingencies by a naive robot. While exploring the world, the robot inter…
The paper revisits and applies FTAP to life insurance and annuities pricing.
Study stability of contingent claim solutions under probabilistic perturbations.
When applied to high-dimensional datasets, feature selection algorithms might still leave dozens of irrelevant variables in the dataset. Therefore, even after feature selection has been applied, classifiers must be prepared to the presence of irrelevant variables. This paper investigates a new training method called Co…
Paper proposes a method to estimate project cost contingency reserves considering various types of uncertainty.
We develop theory for using heuristics to solve computationally hard problems in differential privacy. Heuristic approaches have enjoyed tremendous success in machine learning, for which performance can be empirically evaluated. However, privacy guarantees cannot be evaluated empirically, and must be proven --- without…
Closed-form pricing method for multi-asset options.
We price a contingent claim liability using the utility indifference argument. We consider an agent with exponential utility, who invests in a stock and a money market account with the goal of maximizing the utility of his investment at the final time T in the presence of positive proportional transaction cost in two c…
Motivated by applications to perverse sheaves, we study combinatorics of two cell decompositions of the symmetric product of the complex line, refining the complex stratification by multiplicities. Contingency matrices, appearing in classical statistics, parametrize the cells of one such decomposition, which has the pr…
The paper defines and implements risk-indifference pricing for American-style contingent claims.
In this paper, we study the pricing of contingent claims under G-expectation. In order to accomodate volatility uncertainty, the price of the risky security is supposed to governed by a general linear stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven by G-Brownian motion. Utilizing the recently developed results of Backwar…
We propose a new definition for tameness within the model of security prices as Itô processes that is risk-aware. We give a new definition for arbitrage and characterize it. We then prove a theorem that can be seen as an extension of the second fundamental theorem of asset pricing, and a theorem for valuation of contin…
Study upper hedging prices for contingent claims in models with various types of arbitrage.
Improved method for encoding contingency tables reduces mutual information bias.
In the present paper we show that the Binomial-tree approach for pricing, hedging, and risk assessment of Convertible bonds in the framework of the Tsiveriotis-Fernandes model has serious drawbacks. Key words: Convertible bonds, Binomial tree, Tsiveriotis-Fernandes model, Convertible bond pricing, Convertible bond Gree…
The paper extends portfolio theory to include contingent claim functions for option pricing.
The target of this paper is to establish the bid-ask pricing frame work for the American contingent claims against risky assets with G-asset price systems (see \cite{Chen2013b}) on the financial market under Knight uncertainty. First, we prove G-Dooby-Meyer decomposition for G-supermartingale. Furthermore, we consider …
We price weather-contingent options by use of Monte Carlo simulations. After calibrating the models to fit quoted prices, we analyze bid-ask spreads in terms of correlations across markets. Results are presented for a double-trigger Weather vs. Natural Gas call option.
In this work we study the price-hedge issue for general defaultable contracts characterized by the presence of a contingent CSA of switching type. This is a contingent risk mitigation mechanism that allow the counterparties of a defaultable contract to switch from zero to full/perfect collateralization and switch back …
New pricing framework allocates costs of operating reserves and transmission.
This article focuses on the mathematical problem of existence and uniqueness of BSDE with a random terminal time which is a general random variable but not a stopping time, as it has been usually the case in the previous literature of BSDE with random terminal time. The main motivation of this work is a financial or ac…
The paper prices a new life insurance policy for couples, considering various contingent benefits.
Paper introduces benchmark-neutral pricing for long-term contracts.
Paper compares ML models for fast power system contingency case identification.
Consider a financial market in which an agent trades with utility-induced restrictions on wealth. For a utility function which satisfies the condition of reasonable asymptotic elasticity at we prove that the utility-based super-replication price of an unbounded (but sufficiently integrable) contingent claim i…
We consider an American contingent claim on a financial market where the buyer has additional information. Both agents (seller and buyer) observe the same prices, while the information available to them may differ due to some extra exogenous knowledge the buyer has. The buyer's information flow is modeled by an initial…
Modelling stock prices via jump processes is common in financial markets. In practice, to hedge a contingent claim one typically uses the so-called delta-hedging strategy. This strategy stems from the Black--Merton--Scholes model where it perfectly replicates contingent claims. From the theoretical viewpoint, there is …
This paper investigates whether learning contingency-awareness and controllable aspects of an environment can lead to better exploration in reinforcement learning. To investigate this question, we consider an instantiation of this hypothesis evaluated on the Arcade Learning Element (ALE). In this study, we develop an a…
Extends model uncertainty framework to non-linear affine processes for longevity bonds and contingent claims.
In a discrete-time financial market, a generalized duality is established for model-free superhedging, given marginal distributions of the underlying asset. Contrary to prior studies, we do not require contingent claims to be upper semicontinuous, allowing for upper semi-analytic ones. The generalized duality stipulate…
This paper studies the valuation of European contingent claims with short selling bans under the equal risk pricing (ERP) framework proposed in Guo and Zhu (2017) where analytical pricing formulae were derived in the case of monotonic payoffs under risk-neutral measures. We establish a unified framework for this new pr…
Deep learning models price convertible bonds with complex reset and call features.
We derive a backward and forward nonlinear PDEs that govern the implied volatility of a contingent claim whenever the latter is well-defined. This would include at least any contingent claim written on a positive stock price whose payoff at a possibly random time is convex. We also discuss suitable initial and boundary…
In this paper we study mean-variance hedging under the G-expectation framework. Our analysis is carried out by exploiting the G-martingale representation theorem and the related probabilistic tools, in a contin- uous financial market with two assets, where the discounted risky one is modeled as a symmetric G-martingale…
Game contingent claims (GCCs) generalize American contingent claims by allowing the writer to recall the option as long as it is not exercised, at the price of paying some penalty. In incomplete markets, an appealing approach is to analyze GCCs like their European and American counterparts by solving option holder's an…
In this paper we study dynamic pricing mechanism of contingent claims. A typical model of such pricing mechanism is the so-called g-expectation defined by the solution of the backward stochastic differential equation with generator g and with the contingent claim X as terminal condition. The generating f…
In an incomplete market setting, we consider two financial agents, who wish to price and trade a non-replicable contingent claim. Assuming that the agents are utility maximizers, we propose a transaction price which is a result of the minimization of a convex combination of their utility differences. We call this price…
Study callable convertible bonds with liquidity constraints, generalizing previous work.