A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper tackles pandemic resource allocation challenges.
Paper compares ML models for fast power system contingency case identification.
Study upper hedging prices for contingent claims in models with various types of arbitrage.
This paper proposes a real-time signal plan recommendation system for traffic incidents.
This paper analyzes a novel type of mortality contingent-claim called a ruin-contingent life annuity (RCLA). This product fuses together a path-dependent equity put option with a "personal longevity" call option. The annuitant's (i.e. long position) payoff from a generic RCLA is \$1 of income per year for life, akin to…
Paper identifies a shared toolkit of strategies for risk management across fields.
The paper assesses fairness in AI for financial services, using statistical methods.
Paper introduces EEMs for pricing contingent claim returns.
Sensorimotor contingency theory offers a promising account of the nature of perception, a topic rarely addressed in the robotics community. We propose a developmental framework to address the problem of the autonomous acquisition of sensorimotor contingencies by a naive robot. While exploring the world, the robot inter…
The paper revisits and applies FTAP to life insurance and annuities pricing.
Study stability of contingent claim solutions under probabilistic perturbations.
When applied to high-dimensional datasets, feature selection algorithms might still leave dozens of irrelevant variables in the dataset. Therefore, even after feature selection has been applied, classifiers must be prepared to the presence of irrelevant variables. This paper investigates a new training method called Co…
Paper proposes a method to estimate project cost contingency reserves considering various types of uncertainty.
Closed-form pricing method for multi-asset options.
We price a contingent claim liability using the utility indifference argument. We consider an agent with exponential utility, who invests in a stock and a money market account with the goal of maximizing the utility of his investment at the final time T in the presence of positive proportional transaction cost in two c…
Motivated by applications to perverse sheaves, we study combinatorics of two cell decompositions of the symmetric product of the complex line, refining the complex stratification by multiplicities. Contingency matrices, appearing in classical statistics, parametrize the cells of one such decomposition, which has the pr…
The paper defines and implements risk-indifference pricing for American-style contingent claims.
In this paper, we study the pricing of contingent claims under G-expectation. In order to accomodate volatility uncertainty, the price of the risky security is supposed to governed by a general linear stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven by G-Brownian motion. Utilizing the recently developed results of Backwar…
We develop a pricing model for Sovereign Contingent Convertible bonds (S-CoCo) with payment standstills triggered by a sovereign's Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread. We model CDS spread regime switching, which is prevalent during crises, as a hidden Markov process, coupled with a mean-reverting stochastic process of spr…
We propose a new definition for tameness within the model of security prices as Itô processes that is risk-aware. We give a new definition for arbitrage and characterize it. We then prove a theorem that can be seen as an extension of the second fundamental theorem of asset pricing, and a theorem for valuation of contin…
Improved method for encoding contingency tables reduces mutual information bias.
The paper extends portfolio theory to include contingent claim functions for option pricing.
The target of this paper is to establish the bid-ask pricing frame work for the American contingent claims against risky assets with G-asset price systems (see \cite{Chen2013b}) on the financial market under Knight uncertainty. First, we prove G-Dooby-Meyer decomposition for G-supermartingale. Furthermore, we consider …
The paper examines how CoCo bonds can enhance financial stability in interconnected banking systems.
We price weather-contingent options by use of Monte Carlo simulations. After calibrating the models to fit quoted prices, we analyze bid-ask spreads in terms of correlations across markets. Results are presented for a double-trigger Weather vs. Natural Gas call option.
In this work we study the price-hedge issue for general defaultable contracts characterized by the presence of a contingent CSA of switching type. This is a contingent risk mitigation mechanism that allow the counterparties of a defaultable contract to switch from zero to full/perfect collateralization and switch back …
New pricing framework allocates costs of operating reserves and transmission.
This article focuses on the mathematical problem of existence and uniqueness of BSDE with a random terminal time which is a general random variable but not a stopping time, as it has been usually the case in the previous literature of BSDE with random terminal time. The main motivation of this work is a financial or ac…
The paper prices a new life insurance policy for couples, considering various contingent benefits.
Paper introduces benchmark-neutral pricing for long-term contracts.
Bayesian method improves grid admittance matrix estimation from noisy data.
Consider a financial market in which an agent trades with utility-induced restrictions on wealth. For a utility function which satisfies the condition of reasonable asymptotic elasticity at we prove that the utility-based super-replication price of an unbounded (but sufficiently integrable) contingent claim i…
We consider an American contingent claim on a financial market where the buyer has additional information. Both agents (seller and buyer) observe the same prices, while the information available to them may differ due to some extra exogenous knowledge the buyer has. The buyer's information flow is modeled by an initial…
Modelling stock prices via jump processes is common in financial markets. In practice, to hedge a contingent claim one typically uses the so-called delta-hedging strategy. This strategy stems from the Black--Merton--Scholes model where it perfectly replicates contingent claims. From the theoretical viewpoint, there is …
This paper investigates whether learning contingency-awareness and controllable aspects of an environment can lead to better exploration in reinforcement learning. To investigate this question, we consider an instantiation of this hypothesis evaluated on the Arcade Learning Element (ALE). In this study, we develop an a…
Extends model uncertainty framework to non-linear affine processes for longevity bonds and contingent claims.
In a discrete-time financial market, a generalized duality is established for model-free superhedging, given marginal distributions of the underlying asset. Contrary to prior studies, we do not require contingent claims to be upper semicontinuous, allowing for upper semi-analytic ones. The generalized duality stipulate…
This paper studies the valuation of European contingent claims with short selling bans under the equal risk pricing (ERP) framework proposed in Guo and Zhu (2017) where analytical pricing formulae were derived in the case of monotonic payoffs under risk-neutral measures. We establish a unified framework for this new pr…
CoCos can increase financial fragility in certain network structures.
DPpack offers R tools for private data analysis and machine learning.
We derive a backward and forward nonlinear PDEs that govern the implied volatility of a contingent claim whenever the latter is well-defined. This would include at least any contingent claim written on a positive stock price whose payoff at a possibly random time is convex. We also discuss suitable initial and boundary…
In this paper we study mean-variance hedging under the G-expectation framework. Our analysis is carried out by exploiting the G-martingale representation theorem and the related probabilistic tools, in a contin- uous financial market with two assets, where the discounted risky one is modeled as a symmetric G-martingale…
This paper examines the optimal annuitization, investment and consumption strategies of a utility-maximizing retiree facing a stochastic time of death under a variety of institutional restrictions. We focus on the impact of aging on the optimal purchase of life annuities which form the basis of most Defined Benefit pen…
Game contingent claims (GCCs) generalize American contingent claims by allowing the writer to recall the option as long as it is not exercised, at the price of paying some penalty. In incomplete markets, an appealing approach is to analyze GCCs like their European and American counterparts by solving option holder's an…
In this paper we study dynamic pricing mechanism of contingent claims. A typical model of such pricing mechanism is the so-called g-expectation defined by the solution of the backward stochastic differential equation with generator g and with the contingent claim X as terminal condition. The generating f…
In an incomplete market setting, we consider two financial agents, who wish to price and trade a non-replicable contingent claim. Assuming that the agents are utility maximizers, we propose a transaction price which is a result of the minimization of a convex combination of their utility differences. We call this price…
Pari-mutuel markets are trading platforms through which the common market maker simultaneously clears multiple contingent claims markets. This market has several distinctive properties that began attracting the attention of the financial industry in the 2000s. For example, the platform aggregates liquidity from the ind…
We consider indifference pricing of contingent claims consisting of payment flows in a discrete time model with proportional transaction costs and under exponential disutility. This setting covers utility maximisation as a special case. A dual representation is obtained for the associated disutility minimisation proble…