A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Analyzes new economic paradigm for non-independent consumer choices.
GBS uses machine learning to design products based on consumer preferences.
Paper characterizes MDM for consumer choice modeling and prediction.
We develop a probabilistic consumer choice framework based on information asymmetry between consumers and firms. This framework makes it possible to study market competition of several firms by both quality and price of their products. We find Nash market equilibria and other optimal strategies in various situations ra…
Active learning recovers choice model from noisy data.
Study uses EEG and ML to predict movie ratings with 72% accuracy.
We introduce a fully probabilistic framework of consumer product choice based on quality assessment. It allows us to capture many aspects of marketing such as partial information asymmetry, quality differentiation, and product placement in a supermarket.
There are clear benefits associated with a particular consumer choice for many current markets. For example, as we consider here, some products might carry environmental or `green' benefits. Some consumers might value these benefits while others do not. However, as evidenced by myriad failed attempts of environmental p…
Predicts next item in sequential bundles using Transformers.
This paper proposes a method for estimating consumer preferences among discrete choices, where the consumer chooses at most one product in a category, but selects from multiple categories in parallel. The consumer's utility is additive in the different categories. Her preferences about product attributes as well as her…
Novel method CHPCA simplifies complex market dynamics.
The paper sorts big data by revealed preferences, improving consumer and policy decisions.
PsychFM predicts individual gambling choices using psychological and machine learning models.
Paper proposes a method to estimate consumer valuations from bundle sales data.
Paper uses GANs to simulate consumer transactions with SKU constraints.
This paper analyzes consumer choices over lunchtime restaurants using data from a sample of several thousand anonymous mobile phone users in the San Francisco Bay Area. The data is used to identify users' approximate typical morning location, as well as their choices of lunchtime restaurants. We build a model where res…
A bipartite producer-consumer network is constructed to describe the industrial structure. The edges from consumer to producer represent the choices of the consumer for the final products and the degree of producer can represent its market share. So the size distribution of firms can be characterized by producer's degr…
Bayesian model estimates feature values of premium products.
Specifying utility functions is a key step towards applying the discrete choice framework for understanding the behaviour processes that govern user choices. However, identifying the utility function specifications that best model and explain the observed choices can be a very challenging and time-consuming task. This …
The paper develops a method to estimate consumer preferences from observed rankings.
In economics literature, it is accepted that all people are rational and they try to maximize their utilities as possible as they can. In addition, economic theories are formed with the assumptions not suitable to real life. For instance, indifference curves are drawn with the assumptions that there are two goods, peop…
Bayesian DL model improves DCMs for better predictive and inferential performance.
This study compares logistic regression and XGBoost for predicting credit risk.
Newly available data on the spatial distribution of retail activities in cities makes it possible to build models formalized at the level of the single retailer. Current models tackle consumer location choices at an aggregate level and the opportunity new data offers for modeling at the retail unit level lacks a theore…
The performance of deep neural networks is highly sensitive to the choice of the hyperparameters that define the structure of the network and the learning process. When facing a new application, tuning a deep neural network is a tedious and time consuming process that is often described as a "dark art". This explains t…
Investment and consumption strategies with luxury goods for retirement age.
This paper introduces TDA and TSI for better business analytics.
New algorithm improves stability of optimization algorithms by adapting step-size.
We develop SHOPPER, a sequential probabilistic model of shopping data. SHOPPER uses interpretable components to model the forces that drive how a customer chooses products; in particular, we designed SHOPPER to capture how items interact with other items. We develop an efficient posterior inference algorithm to estimat…
New algorithm reduces regret in dynamic assortment selection.
We consider the problem of identifying the most profitable product design from a finite set of candidates under unknown consumer preference. A standard approach to this problem follows a two-step strategy: First, estimate the preference of the consumer population, represented as a point in part-worth space, using an ad…
A text mining approach is proposed based on latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) to analyze the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) consumer complaints. The proposed approach aims to extract latent topics in the CFPB complaint narratives, and explores their associated trends over time. The time trends will then be…
In natural language processing, a lot of the tasks are successfully solved with recurrent neural networks, but such models have a huge number of parameters. The majority of these parameters are often concentrated in the embedding layer, which size grows proportionally to the vocabulary length. We propose a Bayesian spa…
In this paper I present an extended implementation of the Random ferns algorithm contained in the R package rFerns. It differs from the original by the ability of consuming categorical and numerical attributes instead of only binary ones. Also, instead of using simple attribute subspace ensemble it employs bagging and …
This study examines how fashion consumption affects self-confidence and buying behavior in Iranian consumers.
Method detects multi-timescale consumer spending patterns from receipts.
We study consumption behaviour in systems with heterogeneous interacting agents. Two different models are introduced, respectively with long and short range interactions among agents. At any time step an agent decides whether or not to consume a good, doing so if this provides positive utility. Utility is affected by i…
Detects systematic anomalies in consumer complaints using NLP.
Consumer Demand Response (DR) is an important research and industry problem, which seeks to categorize, predict and modify consumer's energy consumption. Unfortunately, traditional clustering methods have resulted in many hundreds of clusters, with a given consumer often associated with several clusters, making it diff…
Study finds consumers are more price-sensitive before livestreams than after.
A new ride-hailing subsidy system uses deep causal networks to estimate consumer elasticity.
CROCS clusters consumer behaviour from smart meters, capturing variability and robustness.
While a wide range of interpretable generative procedures for graphs exist, matching observed graph topologies with such procedures and choices for its parameters remains an open problem. Devising generative models that closely reproduce real-world graphs requires domain knowledge and time-consuming simulation. While e…
A simple and widely adopted approach to extend Gaussian processes (GPs) to multiple outputs is to model each output as a linear combination of a collection of shared, unobserved latent GPs. An issue with this approach is choosing the number of latent processes and their kernels. These choices are typically done manuall…
In coming years residential consumers will face real-time electricity tariffs with energy prices varying day to day, and effective energy saving will require automation - a recommender system, which learns consumer's preferences from her actions. A consumer chooses a scenario of home appliance use to balance her comfor…
New method learns credit prices offline without interaction.
Study improves retail demand forecasting by integrating macroeconomic data.
We discuss the relevance of the recent Machine Learning (ML) literature for economics and econometrics. First we discuss the differences in goals, methods and settings between the ML literature and the traditional econometrics and statistics literatures. Then we discuss some specific methods from the machine learning l…