Gini index needs auto-calibration for consistent decision-making.
problem Gini index's inconsistency in decision-making.
method Restrict Gini index to auto-calibrated regression models.
result Gini index becomes strictly consistent with auto-calibration.
In the practice of point prediction, it is desirable that forecasters receive a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. When evaluating and comparing competing forecasts, it is then critical that the scoring function used for these purposes be co…
A framework for sensitivity measures using scoring functions.
problem Constructing sensitivity measures for any elicitable functional.
method Score-based sensitivities constructed via consistent scoring functions.
result Demonstrated intuitive and desirable properties of score-based sensitivities.
MAS scores cluster size consistency from points, robust to label changes.
problem Desired uniformity in cluster sizes, stability under label perturbations.
method Mass Agreement Score (MAS) measures point-centric cluster size consistency, robust to label changes.
result MAS yields similar scores for partitions with similar bulk structure, sensitive to genuine redistribution of cluster mass.
Classifies intrinsically linked tournaments by their score sequences.
problem Classifying intrinsically linked tournaments using their score sequences.
method Examining the score sequences of tournaments and identifying linkless sequences.
result The vast majority of score sequences for 8-vertex tournaments are linkless.
Score matching fails for general point processes, a new estimator improves accuracy.
problem Score matching estimators fail for general point processes.
method Introduced a weighted score matching estimator for point processes.
result The weighted score matching estimator accurately estimates model parameters on synthetic and real data.
Observational cohort studies with oversampled exposed subjects are typically implemented to understand the causal effect of a rare exposure. Because the distribution of exposed subjects in the sample differs from the source population, estimation of a propensity score function (i.e., probability of exposure given basel…
The paper examines the consistency of item embeddings in recommendation systems.
problem The relevance of averaging item embeddings for user or concept representation.
method Proposes an expected precision score to measure consistency and analyzes it theoretically and empirically.
result Real-world averages are less consistent for recommendation compared to theoretical assumptions.
Knowing when a classifier's prediction can be trusted is useful in many applications and critical for safely using AI. While the bulk of the effort in machine learning research has been towards improving classifier performance, understanding when a classifier's predictions should and should not be trusted has received …
CCE improves anomaly detection metrics by measuring both confidence and consistency.
problem Existing anomaly detection metrics lack discriminative power, hyperparameter dependency, and robustness to perturbations.
method CCE uses Bayesian estimation to quantify uncertainty and constructs global and event-level confidence and consistency scores.
result CCE demonstrates strict boundedness, robustness, and linear time complexity.
CTM improves diffusion model sampling quality with efficient ODE traversal.
problem Lack of natural trade-off between sample quality and speed in consistency models.
method CTM trains a neural network to output scores and traverse ODE trajectories efficiently.
result CTM achieves state-of-the-art FIDs and improves sample quality with increased computational budget.
In statistical analysis, measuring a score of predictive performance is an important task. In many scientific fields, appropriate scores were tailored to tackle the problems at hand. A proper score is a popular tool to obtain statistically consistent forecasts. Furthermore, a mathematical characterization of the proper…
Recent work has increased the performance of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) by enforcing a consistency cost on the discriminator. We improve on this technique in several ways. We first show that consistency regularization can introduce artifacts into the GAN samples and explain how to fix this issue. We then pr…
This paper considers fair probabilistic binary classification where the outputs of primary interest are predicted probabilities, commonly referred to as scores. We formulate the problem of transforming scores to satisfy fairness constraints that are linear in conditional means of scores while minimizing a cross-entropy…
Predictions are issued on the basis of certain information. If the forecasting mechanisms are correctly specified, a larger amount of available information should lead to better forecasts. For point forecasts, we show how the effect of increasing the information set can be quantified by using strictly consistent scorin…
Identification and scoring functions are statistical tools to assess the calibration and the relative performance of risk measure estimates, e.g., in backtesting. A risk measures is called identifiable (elicitable) it it admits a strict identification function (strictly consistent scoring function). We consider measure…
Humans are accustomed to environments that contain both regularities and exceptions. For example, at most gas stations, one pays prior to pumping, but the occasional rural station does not accept payment in advance. Likewise, deep neural networks can generalize across instances that share common patterns or structures,…
This paper addresses the problem of inferring sparse causal networks modeled by multivariate auto-regressive (MAR) processes. Conditions are derived under which the Group Lasso (gLasso) procedure consistently estimates sparse network structure. The key condition involves a "false connection score." In particular, we sh…
Energy-based diffusion models improve molecular sampling and simulation.
problem Inconsistency between diffusion model scores and equilibrium distributions.
method Fokker-Planck regularization to enforce consistency.
result Improved consistency and efficient sampling of biomolecular systems.
Improved continuous-time consistency models for large-scale image generation.
problem Training instability and discretization errors in existing diffusion models.
method Unified theoretical framework, improved diffusion process, and network architecture.
result Trained continuous-time CMs at 1.5B parameters, achieving state-of-the-art FID scores.
EnScale learns to downscale climate models efficiently, capturing both spatial and temporal consistency.
problem Downscaling climate models from coarse to high-resolution data is computationally expensive and challenging.
method EnScale uses generative models and proper scoring rules to map GCM data to RCM data, reducing computational cost.
result EnScale achieves competitive performance and computational efficiency in downscaling multiple climate variables.
Score matching is a popular method for estimating unnormalized statistical models. However, it has been so far limited to simple, shallow models or low-dimensional data, due to the difficulty of computing the Hessian of log-density functions. We show this difficulty can be mitigated by projecting the scores onto random…
ChatGPT scores corporate investment plans, predicting future spending and returns.
problem Measuring and predicting corporate investment plans.
method Created a firm-level ChatGPT investment score based on conference calls.
result The investment score predicts future capital expenditures and returns.
ScoreMatchingRiesz improves debiased machine learning and policy effects estimation.
problem Improving debiased machine learning and policy effects estimation.
method Score matching and Riesz representer estimation.
result Estimates policy path for continuous treatments, improving interpretability.
Unified score and distance-based GoF tests for model adequacy.
problem Difficulty in extending score-based GoF tests to nonparametric alternatives.
method Introducing semiparametric kernelized Stein discrepancy (SKSD) test.
result SKSD test is computationally efficient and universally consistent.
A statistical functional, such as the mean or the median, is called elicitable if there is a scoring function or loss function such that the correct forecast of the functional is the unique minimizer of the expected score. Such scoring functions are called strictly consistent for the functional. The elicitability of a …
SMT trains generative models by estimating mixture scores, outperforming existing methods.
problem Training one-step generative models efficiently and effectively.
method Score-of-Mixture Training (SMT) estimates the score of mixture distributions between real and fake samples.
result SMT/SMD outperform existing methods on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet 64x64 datasets.
New scoring rules improve probabilistic classification model evaluation.
problem Traditional scoring rules misalign with the preference for correct classifications.
method Introduces Penalized Brier Score (PBS) and Penalized Logarithmic Loss (PLL) to modify proper scoring rules.
result PBS and PLL better identify optimal checkpoints and early stopping points, leading to superior F1 scores.
Unified model for prediction and deferral selects top-k entities efficiently.
problem Efficiently selecting top-k entities for deferral in machine learning.
method One-stage Top-k Learning-to-Defer framework with a convex surrogate. result Unified model achieves superior accuracy-cost trade-offs.
New method evaluates language model forecasters by checking consistency of predictions.
problem Evaluating the performance of language model forecasters is difficult due to lack of ground truth.
method Developed a consistency check framework based on arbitrage to evaluate forecasters.
result Consistency metrics correlate with ground truth performance of LLM forecasters.
Improves conformal prediction by combining multiple score functions and optimizing weights.
problem Limitations of single-score conformal predictors in multi-class classification.
method Combines multiple score functions and optimizes weights to minimize prediction set size.
result Consistently outperforms single-score conformal predictors while maintaining valid coverage.
In this paper, we propose a robust method to estimate the average treatment effects in observational studies when the number of potential confounders is possibly much greater than the sample size. We first use a class of penalized M-estimators for the propensity score and outcome models. We then calibrate the initial e…
We address the problem of learning vector representations for entities and relations in Knowledge Graphs (KGs) for Knowledge Base Completion (KBC). This problem has received significant attention in the past few years and multiple methods have been proposed. Most of the existing methods in the literature use a predefin…
Maximum likelihood training improves the performance of score-based diffusion models.
problem Training score-based diffusion models with maximum likelihood.
method Trained by minimizing a weighted combination of score matching losses, with a specific weighting scheme that bounds negative log-likelihood.
result Maximum likelihood training improves the log-likelihood of score-based diffusion models across multiple datasets.
Score matching method improves image generation quality.
problem Score matching method underperforms GANs in metrics like Fréchet Inception Distance.
method DSM-ALS with denoising and improved sampling techniques.
result Score matching methods can match GANs in image generation quality.
The debate of what quantitative risk measure to choose in practice has mainly focused on the dichotomy between Value at Risk (VaR) -- a quantile -- and Expected Shortfall (ES) -- a tail expectation. Range Value at Risk (RVaR) is a natural interpolation between these two prominent risk measures, which constitutes a trad…
Novel estimator reduces diffusion model variance.
problem High variance in score function estimation for diffusion models.
method Uses nearest neighbour samples to estimate the score function.
result Significant decrease in variance, leading to improved model performance.
Estimates proper calibration errors and refinement terms in probabilistic predictions.
problem Lack of a general estimator for proper calibration errors and refinement terms with known statistical properties.
method Proposes a method for consistent, asymptotically unbiased estimation of proper calibration errors and refinement terms.
result Proves the relation between refinement and f-divergences, implying information monotonicity in neural networks.
Paper develops a consistent algorithm for learning graph structure from continuous-time stochastic differential equations.
problem Learning structure from continuous-time stochastic differential equations.
method Score-based structure learning using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations with adaptive regularization.
result The method consistently recovers directed graphs of local independencies in systems of stochastic differential equations.
Robustifies elicitable functionals to handle small distribution misspecifications.
problem Determining uniquely optimal forecasts under distributional misspecification.
method Integrates statistical robustness into elicitable functionals using Kullback-Leibler divergence.
result Robust elicitable functionals admit unique solutions at the boundary of uncertainty regions.
Robust score matching improves parameter estimation in contaminated data.
problem Parameter estimation in data contaminated by outliers.
method Geometric median of means to develop a robust score matching procedure.
result Consistent parameter estimates in contaminated data settings.
A new method for training diffusion models using likelihood matching.
problem Training efficient and accurate diffusion models.
method Likelihood Matching approach, quasi-likelihood approximation, score and Hessian estimation.
result Consistent matching of first two transitional moments between diffusion steps.
Enhances learning of structured distributions using nonlinear denoising score matching.
problem Learning structured distributions from noisy data.
method Latent Nonlinear Denoising Score Matching (LNDSM) integrating nonlinear dynamics with VAE-based latent score matching.
result LNDSM achieves superior sample quality and variability compared to structure-agnostic methods.
New scoring rules compare probabilistic top lists in classification.
problem Evaluation of probabilistic top lists in classification.
method Elicitability through symmetric proper scoring rules.
result Brier score provides a well-suited metric for comparison.
WS diffusion models handle anisotropic Gaussian noise better than conventional methods.
problem Handling anisotropic Gaussian noise in imaging inverse problems.
method Whitened Score (WS) diffusion models based on stochastic differential equations.
result WS DMs outperform conventional DMs on anisotropic Gaussian noise.
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are known to be difficult to train, despite considerable research effort. Several regularization techniques for stabilizing training have been proposed, but they introduce non-trivial computational overheads and interact poorly with existing techniques like spectral normalization.…
A faster method for density estimation using denoising score matching with random Fourier features.
problem Intractability of normalizing constant in density estimation.
method Denoising Score Matching with Random Fourier Features.
result The method is computationally faster and scalable to complex high-dimensional data.
Improved assessment of knee osteoarthritis using geodesic B-score.
problem Need for automatic, reader-independent measures of osteoarthritis clinical outcomes.
method Derive a geodesic B-score for Riemannian shape spaces, develop efficient algorithm for large shape populations.
result Geodesic B-score exhibits improved discrimination ability over Euclidean B-score.