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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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75150225300 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for consistent answers

The paper optimizes LLM accuracy by stopping early based on consistent answers.

problem Improving LLM accuracy in math and reasoning problems.
method Bayesian stopping policy to save on sampling costs, tracking only the L-1 most frequent answer counts.
result The L=3 stopping policy is sufficient for asymptotic optimality and significantly reduces inference costs.

Prefix consistency improves model reliability by weighting answers based on their reproducibility.

problem Improving the reliability of large language models' reasoning traces.
method Use prefix consistency to weight candidate answers based on their reproducibility during regeneration.
result Prefix consistency is the best correctness predictor, reaching Standard MV plateau accuracy with up to 21x fewer tokens.

CITE algorithm provides anytime-valid certification of model outputs.

problem Challenges in controlling error levels in LLM self-consistency.
method Certification by Intersection-union Testing with E-processes (CITE) algorithm.
result Provable control of false certification at any prescribed level under arbitrary stopping rules.

We introduce the new task of Acoustic Question Answering (AQA) to promote research in acoustic reasoning. The AQA task consists of analyzing an acoustic scene composed by a combination of elementary sounds and answering questions that relate the position and properties of these sounds. The kind of relational questions …

2019-02-28abs ↗pdf ↗

REALFIN benchmarks financial reasoning by removing implicit assumptions, revealing model weaknesses.

problem Models struggle when implicit assumptions are missing, leading to incorrect answers.
method Developed a bilingual benchmark that systematically removes essential premises from financial questions.
result General-purpose models over-commit, while finance-specialized models fail to identify missing premises.

Unified framework for certifying LLM reliability without extra supervision.

problem Improving reliability of large language models without additional supervision.
method Unified framework using majority voting and Martingale Majority Certificate (MMC).
result Certifiable inference in LLMs with statistical guarantees and adaptive stopping rules.

The paper certifies AI reliability via sampling and calibration, providing exact guarantees.

problem Ensuring trust in black-box AI systems' outputs.
method Self-consistency sampling and conformal calibration.
result Reliability levels derived from these methods offer finite-sample guarantees.

Deep learning techniques are rapidly advanced recently, and becoming a necessity component for widespread systems. However, the inference process of deep learning is black-box, and not very suitable to safety-critical systems which must exhibit high transparency. In this paper, to address this black-box limitation, we …

2019-03-13abs ↗pdf ↗

The nearest neighbor rule is proven consistent in a broad setting.

problem Proving consistency of the nearest neighbor rule in various settings.
method Proving online consistency for all measurable functions in doubling metric spaces under mild assumptions.
result The nearest neighbor rule is online consistent in all measurable functions in doubling metric spaces.

Consistency of the kernel density estimator requires that the kernel bandwidth tends to zero as the sample size grows. In this paper we investigate the question of whether consistency is possible when the bandwidth is fixed, if we consider a more general class of weighted KDEs. To answer this question in the affirmativ…

2017-05-24abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper presents the current state of a work in progress, whose objective is to better understand the effects of factors that significantly influence the performance of Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA). A difficult task, which consists in answering (French) biology Multiple Choice Questions, is used to test the semant…

2008-11-02abs ↗pdf ↗

We investigate the geometry of word metrics on fundamental groups of manifolds associated with the generating sets consisting of elements represented by closed geodesics. We ask whether the diameter of such a metric is finite or infinite. The first answer we interpret as an abundance of closed geodesics, while the seco…

2019-04-25abs ↗pdf ↗

ForecastQA creates a new QA task for event forecasting from text data.

problem Forecasting future events from unstructured text data.
method Formulated a restricted-domain, multiple-choice QA task for event forecasting.
result Best model achieves 60.1% accuracy, lagging behind human performance by about 19%

In this paper we investigate the following existence problem for rational functions: for a given collection ΠΠ of partitions of a number nn to define whether there exists a rational function ff of degree nn for which ΠΠ is the branch datum. An important particular case when the answer to this problem is known is t…

2006-11-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Motivated by the study in Morse theory and Smale's work in dynamics, the following questions are studied and answered: (1) When does a 3-manifold admit an automorphism having a knotted Smale solenoid as an attractor? (2) When does a 3-manifold admit an automorphism whose non-wandering set consists of Smale solenoids? T…

2004-03-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops PLL methods that are provably consistent and compatible with any deep network.

problem Lack of theoretical understanding and consistency in partial-label learning methods.
method Proposes a generation model for candidate label sets and develops two PLL methods that are risk- and classifier-consistent.
result Two novel PLL methods are guaranteed to be provably consistent.

Spectral clustering achieves strong consistency in the stochastic block model under certain conditions.

problem Achieving strong consistency in spectral clustering for the stochastic block model.
method Entrywise analysis of the Fielder eigenvector of graph Laplacians.
result Spectral clustering achieves exact recovery of hidden communities under matching information-theoretic limits.

This work explores test-time scaling strategies for LLMs, improving sample efficiency and expressiveness.

problem Understanding the sample efficiency and expressiveness of test-time scaling strategies for LLMs.
method Established separation and expressiveness results for self-consistency, best-of-nn, and self-correction strategies.
result Self-correction enables Transformers to simulate online learning over multiple tasks without prior knowledge.

The paper defines and characterizes conditional nonlinear expectations.

problem Defining and characterizing conditional nonlinear expectations.
method Embedding in decision theory, using state-dependent preferences, and continuous utility representation.
result Consistent backward conditional projections are characterized by the Sure-Thing Principle.

We construct two infinite families of algebraic minimal cones in RnR^{n}. The first family consists of minimal cubics given explicitly in terms of the Clifford systems. We show that the classes of congruent minimal cubics are in one to one correspondence with those of geometrically equivalent Clifford systems. As a byp…

2010-02-28abs ↗pdf ↗

LLMs generate answers under incomplete context, and their uncertainty should scale with missing information.

problem Evaluating the quality of LLM answers under incomplete context.
method A controlled framework with varying context availability, and two uncertainty measures (sampling-based confidence and response entropy) evaluated on SQuAD.
result Response entropy increases with context removal and explains more variance in accuracy than confidence, suggesting it is a more responsive uncertainty measure.

A subset of a group is characteristic if it is invariant under every automorphism of the group. We study word length in fundamental groups of closed hyperbolic surfaces with respect to characteristic generating sets consisting of a finite union of orbits of the automorphism group, and show that the translation length o…

2007-04-29abs ↗pdf ↗

A conformal procedure improves CoT reasoning by aggregating reasoning paths and calibrating abstention rules.

problem Aggregation uncertainty in chain-of-thought reasoning makes correct answers less reliable.
method Introduces a conformal procedure for CoT reasoning that uses weighted score aggregation and abstention rules.
result Achieves higher selective accuracy with abstention, reducing confident-error rate.

Blend-ASC improves self-consistency efficiency by dynamically allocating samples, reducing costs.

problem Efficiently applying self-consistency to large datasets is computationally expensive.
method Blend-ASC dynamically allocates samples during inference, improving efficiency.
result Blend-ASC reduces sample usage by 6.8x on average compared to vanilla self-consistency.

A new framework evaluates LLM calibration in open-ended QA.

problem Evaluating LLM calibration in open-ended QA settings.
method Sem-ECE framework: sampling answers, grouping by semantic classes, and using frequencies as confidence.
result Sem-ECE estimators are unbiased and Sem2_2 achieves smaller calibration error.

Researchers have used from 30 days to several years of daily returns as source data for clustering financial time series based on their correlations. This paper sets up a statistical framework to study the validity of such practices. We first show that clustering correlated random variables from their observed values i…

2016-03-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified framework for ranking-and-selection with multiple correct answers and non-answerable estimates

problem Fixed-precision ranking-and-selection in structured settings with non-unique answers and non-answerable estimates
method Unified framework based on answer-wise acceptance sets, restricted generalized likelihood ratio stopping, and answer-pitfall decomposition
result Unified recipe performs well across a broad range of pure-exploration problems

Nonconvex optimization algorithms with random initialization have attracted increasing attention recently. It has been showed that many first-order methods always avoid saddle points with random starting points. In this paper, we answer a question: can the nonconvex heavy-ball algorithms with random initialization avoi…

2019-07-23abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper uses LLMs and cycle consistency for better machine translation evaluation.

problem Evaluating translation quality and LLM capabilities without ground truth.
method Generate translation candidates, back-translate, and evaluate cycle consistency.
result Larger LLMs or more inference passes improve cycle consistency.

The paper explores how LLMs with CoT improve performance on complex tasks.

problem Understanding the mechanisms behind LLMs' improved performance with CoT.
method Using circuit complexity theory, the paper examines LLMs' expressivity in solving mathematical and decision-making problems.
result LLMs with CoT can generate correct solutions step-by-step, even for complex tasks.

Paper introduces SDM for detecting LLM hallucinations, improving on entropy tests.

problem Challenges of Large Language Models (LLMs) with non-factual, nonsensical responses.
method Joint clustering on sentence embeddings to measure semantic divergence between prompts and responses.
result SDM framework detects deeper form of arbitrariness in LLM responses.

A new algorithm identifies one of several nearly optimal arms in linear bandits.

problem Identifying one arm that is close to the best arm in linear bandits.
method Developed a procedure to adapt best-arm identification algorithms for ε\varepsilon-best-answer identification in transductive linear stochastic bandits.
result Proposed an asymptotically optimal algorithm for ε\varepsilon-best-answer identification.