A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method uses cycle consistency to enforce invariance in latent space.
The paper concerns primal and dual representations as well as time consistency of set-valued dynamic risk measures. Set-valued risk measures appear naturally when markets with transaction costs are considered and capital requirements can be made in a basket of currencies or assets. Time consistency of scalar risk measu…
Kleinberg introduced three natural clustering properties, or axioms, and showed they cannot be simultaneously satisfied by any clustering algorithm. We present a new clustering property, Monotonic Consistency, which avoids the well-known problematic behaviour of Kleinberg's Consistency axiom, and the impossibility resu…
The paper introduces risk consistency properties for credit ratings.
Empirical study shows consistent meta-RL algorithms adapt to OOD tasks.
A one-to-one correspondence is drawn between law invariant risk measures and divergences, which we define as functionals of pairs of probability measures on arbitrary standard Borel spaces satisfying a few natural properties. Divergences include many classical information divergence measures, such as relative entropy a…
Proposes a method for explaining black-box models with nested feature attributions.
Localized SVMs maintain SVM's consistency properties for large datasets.
We extend a recently proposed 1-nearest-neighbor based multiclass learning algorithm and prove that our modification is universally strongly Bayes-consistent in all metric spaces admitting any such learner, making it an "optimistically universal" Bayes-consistent learner. This is the first learning algorithm known to e…
Recently, financial industry and regulators have enhanced the debate on the good properties of a risk measure. A fundamental issue is the evaluation of the quality of a risk estimation. On the one hand, a backtesting procedure is desirable for assessing the accuracy of such an estimation and this can be naturally achie…
Framework for quantifying uncertainty in dynamic processes.
Symbolic grounding in causal dynamics achieves near-infinite temporal consistency.
We formulate a sufficient condition for the existence of a consistent price system (CPS), which is weaker than the conditional full support condition (CFS) introduced by Guasoni, Rasonyi, and Schachermayer [Ann. Appl. Probab., 18(2008), pp. 491-520] . We use the new condition to show the existence of CPSs for certain p…
Although consistency is a minimum requirement of any estimator, little is known about consistency of the mean partition approach in consensus clustering. This contribution studies the asymptotic behavior of mean partitions. We show that under normal assumptions, the mean partition approach is consistent and asymptotic …
A new family of penalty functions, adaptive to likelihood, is introduced for model selection in general regression models. It arises naturally through assuming certain types of prior distribution on the regression parameters. To study stability properties of the penalized maximum likelihood estimator, two types of asym…
This technical report proves components consistency for the Doubly Stochastic Dirichlet Process with exponential convergence of posterior probability. We also present the fundamental properties for DSDP as well as inference algorithms. Simulation toy experiment and real-world experiment results for single and multi-clu…
Adversarial consistency depends on the uniqueness of adversarial Bayes classifiers.
Study geometric properties of surfaces with specific formulae.
In this work we give a comprehensive overview of the time consistency property of dynamic risk and performance measures, focusing on a the discrete time setup. The two key operational concepts used throughout are the notion of the LM-measure and the notion of the update rule that, we believe, are the key tools for stud…
Working in a continuous time setting, we extend to the general case of dynamic risk measures continuous from above the characterization of time consistency in terms of ``cocycle condition'' of the minimal penalty function. We prove also the supermartingale property for general time consistent dynamic risk measures. Whe…
We introduce Fisher consistency in the sense of unbiasedness as a desirable property for estimators of class prior probabilities. Lack of Fisher consistency could be used as a criterion to dismiss estimators that are unlikely to deliver precise estimates in test datasets under prior probability and more general dataset…
We study consistency properties of machine learning methods based on minimizing convex surrogates. We extend the recent framework of Osokin et al. (2017) for the quantitative analysis of consistency properties to the case of inconsistent surrogates. Our key technical contribution consists in a new lower bound on the ca…
Paper connects risk consistency to L_p consistency for broader loss functions.
Convex clustering can only learn convex clusters, with significant gaps between clusters.
Regularized M-estimators are used in diverse areas of science and engineering to fit high-dimensional models with some low-dimensional structure. Usually the low-dimensional structure is encoded by the presence of the (unknown) parameters in some low-dimensional model subspace. In such settings, it is desirable for est…
Graph-based semi-supervised learning is one of the most popular methods in machine learning. Some of its theoretical properties such as bounds for the generalization error and the convergence of the graph Laplacian regularizer have been studied in computer science and statistics literatures. However, a fundamental stat…
Uniform consistency proven for spatial distribution and depth estimators in any dimension.
We improve random forest consistency and performance with DMRF, a new variant.
Study of loss functions for learning to defer, proving consistency.
RLHF performs well despite violating social choice theory axioms.
Hierarchical clustering is a popular method for analyzing data which associates a tree to a dataset. Hartigan consistency has been used extensively as a framework to analyze such clustering algorithms from a statistical point of view. Still, as we show in the paper, a tree which is Hartigan consistent with a given dens…
Physics-consistent method improves seismic inversion accuracy.
Enhances random forest consistency and introduces DMRF for improved performance.
Label aggregation makes learning robust to noisy labels.
Study shows how discrete graph curvature relates to manifold curvature.
We consider a jump-type Cox--Ingersoll--Ross (CIR) process driven by a standard Wiener process and a subordinator, and we study asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for its growth rate. We distinguish three cases: subcritical, critical and supercritical. In the subcritical case we prove weak …
We consider evaluation methods for payoffs with an inherent financial risk as encountered for instance for portfolios held by pension funds and insurance companies. Pricing such payoffs in a way consistent to market prices typically involves combining actuarial techniques with methods from mathematical finance. We prop…
New method filters large networks from financial data to reveal key subnetworks.
Bitcoin returns exhibit a distinct inverse cubic law scaling behavior.
This paper gives an overview of the theory of dynamic convex risk measures for random variables in discrete time setting. We summarize robust representation results of conditional convex risk measures, and we characterize various time consistency properties of dynamic risk measures in terms of acceptance sets, penalty …
A family of Markov blankets in a faithful Bayesian network satisfies the symmetry and consistency properties. In this paper, we draw a bijection between families of consistent Markov blankets and moral graphs. We define the new concepts of weak recursive simpliciality and perfect elimination kits. We prove that they ar…
Proves Congruence Subgroup Property for two types of groups.
We study the asymptotic consistency properties of -Rényi approximate posteriors, a class of variational Bayesian methods that approximate an intractable Bayesian posterior with a member of a tractable family of distributions, the member chosen to minimize the -Rényi divergence from the true posterior. Unique to o…
The sample mean is among the most well studied estimators in statistics, having many desirable properties such as unbiasedness and consistency. However, when analyzing data collected using a multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiment, the sample mean is biased and much remains to be understood about its properties. For exampl…
Paper proposes efficient algorithm for recovering sparsity pattern from deterministic missing data.
The paper examines the consistency of Lasso regression applied to signature analysis of time series data.
The tangential map is a map on the set of smooth planar curves. It satisfies the 3D-consistency property and is closely related to some well-known integrable equations.
This paper investigates Frequentist consistency properties of the posterior distributions constructed via Generalized Variational Inference (GVI). A number of generic and novel strategies are given for proving consistency, relying on the theory of -convergence. Specifically, this paper shows that under minimal regul…