This work extends balancing to various simulation-based inference algorithms for more conservative posterior approximations.
problem Overconfident posterior approximations in simulation-based inference.
method Introduces a balanced version of neural posterior estimation and contrastive neural ratio estimation.
result Balanced versions tend to produce conservative posterior approximations on various benchmarks.
BNRE improves simulation-based inference by producing more conservative posteriors.
problem Overconfident posteriors from current simulation-based inference algorithms risk false inferences.
method Balanced Neural Ratio Estimation (BNRE) that produces more conservative posterior approximations.
result BNRE produces more conservative posterior surrogates on all tested benchmarks and simulation budgets.
Conservation laws improve diffusion model training by optimizing likelihood.
problem Training diffusion models with denoising objectives.
method Developed conservation laws based on GEXIT functions for memoryless noise processes.
result Unified characterization of diffusion model likelihood, reducing training to learning marginal posteriors.
Bayesian deep ensembles improve prediction accuracy in various settings.
problem Improving prediction accuracy of deep ensembles in out-of-distribution settings.
method Introducing a randomised, untrainable function to each ensemble member, enabling a posterior predictive distribution interpretation.
result Bayesian deep ensembles make more conservative predictions and outperform standard ensembles in various tasks.
Simulation-based inference methods can produce unreliable posterior approximations.
problem Reliability of simulation-based inference methods for scientific use cases.
method Benchmarked algorithms including Neural Posterior Estimation, Neural Ratio Estimation, Sequential Neural Likelihood, and Approximate Bayesian Computation.
result Ensembling posterior surrogates provides more reliable approximations.
DRO-NPE improves neural posterior estimation by reducing overconfidence and overfitting.
problem Overconfident and unreliable posteriors in simulation-based inference with limited simulation budgets.
method Distributionally robust approach using Wasserstein ambiguity set and KL-based metrics.
result Consistently improves coverage and calibration across benchmark tasks.
BCPO optimizes offline RL policies by converting uncertainty into conservative bounds.
problem Offline RL's fragility under distribution shifts and model errors.
method Bayesian approach with credible lower bounds and KL regularization.
result BCPO yields an uncertainty-calibrated policy that avoids exploiting model errors.
We quantify predictive uncertainty using the posterior predictive variance.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in predictive models.
method Using the law of total variance, we generate expansions for the posterior predictive variance.
result Identify the main contributors to prediction intervals and quantify term-wise uncertainty.
S-VBMC improves VBMC's exploration of complex posterior distributions.
problem Efficient inference for computationally expensive models with complex posterior distributions.
method Stacking multiple independent VBMC runs to create a robust global posterior approximation.
result Significant improvements in posterior approximation quality across various applications.
Bayesian design improves accuracy without extra cost.
problem Nested inference in complex systems limits BED accuracy and efficiency.
method Grouped geometric pooled posterior with EKI formulation.
result Improved accuracy and stable estimators at comparable cost.
The paper improves ODE solvers by integrating diverse information types.
problem Improving accuracy and physical meaningfulness of ODE solutions.
method Leveraging probabilistic solvers to include second-order information and physical conservation laws.
result Solutions become more accurate and physically meaningful with additional information.
The estimation of probabilities of default (PDs) for low default portfolios by means of upper confidence bounds is a well established procedure in many financial institutions. However, there are often discussions within the institutions or between institutions and supervisors about which confidence level to use for the…
Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful interpolation technique due to its flexibility in capturing non-linearity. In this paper, we provide a general framework for understanding the frequentist coverage of point-wise and simultaneous Bayesian credible sets in GP regression. As an intermediate result, we develop…
Two methods improve Gaussian process predictive distributions' calibration.
problem Improving the reliability of Gaussian process predictive intervals.
method Introduces two methods: cps-gp and bcr-gp, both adapting conformal predictive systems to GP interpolation.
result Both methods provide finite-sample marginal calibration and smooth predictive distributions.
Most bandit algorithm designs are purely theoretical. Therefore, they have strong regret guarantees, but also are often too conservative in practice. In this work, we pioneer the idea of algorithm design by minimizing the empirical Bayes regret, the average regret over problem instances sampled from a known distributio…
Theoretical analysis confirms non-conservative algorithms can converge to optimal policies.
problem Theoretical guarantees for non-conservative reinforcement learning algorithms.
method Theoretical analysis of Peng's Q(λ) algorithm. result Peng's Q(λ) converges to an optimal policy under certain conditions. Study finds conserved quantities for two types of curves on conformal sphere.
problem Identifying conserved quantities for specific types of curves on a conformal sphere.
method Used parallel tractor and Lagrangian formalism to compute conserved quantities.
result Found relation between conserved quantities of two curve types.
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) samples efficiently from high-dimensional posterior distributions with proposed parameter draws obtained by iterating on a discretized version of the Hamiltonian dynamics. The iterations make HMC computationally costly, especially in problems with large datasets, since it is necessary to c…
Survey on conservation laws for geometric PDEs.
problem Modeling polyharmonic maps.
method Conservation law approach.
result Overview of conservation laws in geometric PDEs.
New CAGP-GS framework improves Gaussian process uncertainty quantification.
problem Scaling issue in Gaussian processes for large datasets.
method Calibrated probabilistic linear solvers for reduced complexity.
result CAGP-GS framework provides more realistic uncertainty quantification.
The article discusses conservation laws for polyharmonic maps and their applications.
problem Understanding conservation laws for polyharmonic maps.
method Recalling the stress-energy tensor and showing conservation laws with Killing vector fields.
result Conservation laws for polyharmonic maps and their applications.
Paper presents a reduction-based framework for conservative bandits and RL with improved lower and upper bounds.
problem Conservative bandits and reinforcement learning problems.
method Reduction technique to calculate necessary and sufficient budget from baseline policy.
result Improved lower and upper bounds for various conservative settings.
I consider the existence and structure of conservation laws for the general class of evolutionary scalar second-order differential equations with parabolic symbol. First I calculate the linearized characteristic cohomology for such equations. This provides an auxiliary differential equation satisfied by the conservatio…
Non-trivial conservation law found for a specific system.
problem Conservation law for a specific system with a vanishing characteristic.
method Analyzing overdetermined system with given characteristics.
result Non-trivial conservation law despite vanishing characteristic.
The paper analyzes recalibration methods for binary classifiers under distribution shift.
problem Recalibrating binary classifiers to match a target prior probability.
method Analysis of distribution shift assumptions and proposal of new recalibration methods.
result QMM methods provide conservative results for risk weights functions.
This work connects symmetries and conserved quantities in machine learning.
problem Improving machine learning models by learning conserved quantities.
method Using Noether's theorem, learn symmetries and conserved quantities directly from data.
result Correctly identifies conserved quantities and improves model performance.
Proposes a conservative exploration method for RL agents.
problem Guaranteeing performance of exploratory policies in RL.
method Importance sampling for off-policy policy evaluation.
result Derives a regret bound ensuring no conservative constraint violation.
Conservation law for weakly harmonic mappings in high dimensions.
problem Conservation law for harmonic mappings in supercritical dimensions.
method Partial extension of Rivière's conservation law with Lorentz integrability condition.
result Conservation law for weakly harmonic mappings in supercritical dimensions.
The conservation laws of the third order quasilinear scalar evolution equations are considered via differential system and characteristic cohomology. We find a subspace of 2 forms in the infinite prolonged space in which every conservation law has a unique representative. The structure of this subspace naturally gives …
Given a vector field on a manifold M, we define a globally conserved quantity to be a differential form whose Lie derivative is exact. Integrals of conserved quantities over suitable submanifolds are constant under time evolution, the Kelvin circulation theorem being a well-known special case. More generally, conserved…
We study higher-order conservation laws of the non-linearizable elliptic Poisson equation ∂z∂zˉ∂2u=−f(u) as elements of the characteristic cohomology of the associated exterior differential system. The theory of characteristic cohomology determines a normal form for diffe…
New conservation laws found for polyharmonic maps in critical dimension.
problem Existence of conservation laws for polyharmonic maps in critical dimension.
method Small perturbation of Uhlenbeck's gauge fixing matrix.
result Existence of conservation laws for elliptic systems of even order in critical dimension.
Gene regulatory networks play a crucial role in controlling an organism's biological processes, which is why there is significant interest in developing computational methods that are able to extract their structure from high-throughput genetic data. Many of these computational methods are designed to infer individual …
A challenging problem in complex networks is the network reconstruction problem from data. This work deals with a class of networks denoted as conserved networks, in which a flow associated with every edge and the flows are conserved at all non-source and non-sink nodes. We propose a novel polynomial time algorithm to …
MC-LSTM extends LSTM to conserve mass in neural networks.
problem Conservation laws in real-world systems.
method Extending LSTM's inductive bias to conserve mass.
result MC-LSTM sets new state-of-the-art for predicting peak flows.
The paper studies symmetries and conservation laws of non-diagonalisable hydrodynamic systems.
problem Integrating non-diagonalisable hydrodynamic systems of partial differential equations.
method Analysis of gl-regular Nijenhuis operators, splitting Theorem for symmetries and conservation laws, relationship between symmetries and conservation laws.
result The system of partial differential equations is integrable in quadratures.
We present a connection between the Killing fields that arise in the loop-group approach to integrable systems and conservation laws viewed as elements of the characteristic cohomology. We use the connection to generate the complete set of conservation laws (as elements of the characteristic cohomology) for the Tzitzei…
Improves DRO with Bayesian Ambiguity Sets for model misspecification.
problem Overly conservative decisions due to misspecified models in DRO.
method Introduces DRO-RoBAS with robust posterior predictive distribution.
result Outperforms other Bayesian and empirical DRO approaches in out-of-sample performance.
A new algorithm balances exploration and exploitation in online decision-making.
problem Balancing exploration and exploitation in online decision-making.
method Proposed C4-UCB algorithm incorporating conservative mechanism. result Proved n-step upper regret bound for two situations.
We obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of "conservation laws" on null hypersurfaces for the wave equation on general four-dimensional Lorentzian manifolds. Examples of null hypersurfaces exhibiting such conservation laws include the standard null cones of Minkowski spacetime and the degenerate …
New neural network enforces mass conservation for better ice flow predictions.
problem Reliably project future sea level rise by improving ice sheet model inputs.
method Proposes divergence-free neural networks (dfNNs) enforcing local mass conservation.
result dfNNs yield more reliable ice flux estimates compared to other models.
The study finds resonance points in polarised curves with polynomial conserved quantities.
problem Finding resonance points in polarised curves with polynomial conserved quantities.
method Using the non-orthogonality assumption on the conserved quantity, the study deduces the existence of resonance points.
result Every finite type polarised curve in the conformal 2-sphere with a polynomial conserved quantity admits a resonance point.
Following an approach of the second author for conformally invariant variational problems in two dimensions, we show in four dimensions the existence of a conservation law for fourth order systems, which includes both intrinsic and extrinsic biharmonic maps. With the help of this conservation law we prove the continuit…
New method for accurate uncertainty estimation in deep learning predictions.
problem Insufficient methods for assessing prediction uncertainty in deep learning.
method Valid non-parametric bootstrap method for deep neural networks.
result Accurate confidence intervals and simultaneous confidence bands for survival data.
Develops neural networks for learning physics of complex systems by enforcing thermodynamics principles.
problem Learning physics of complex systems from incomplete experimental data.
method Integrates port-metriplectic formalism with neural networks to enforce thermodynamics principles.
result Neural networks can learn physics of complex systems by parts, reducing learning burden.
There is a well-known example of integrable conservative system on S2, the case of Kovalevskaya in the dynamics of a rigid body, possessing an integral of fourth degree in momenta. Goryachev proposed a one-parameter family of examples of conservative systems on S2 possessing an integral of fourth degree in moment…
Data symmetries in neural networks can generate conserved quantities.
problem Conservation laws in neural networks
method Using tensorizable networks
result Data augmentation can induce conserved quantities
RORL improves offline RL robustness with conservative smoothing.
problem Distribution shift and robustness issues in offline RL.
method RORL introduces regularization and conservative smoothing for robustness.
result RORL achieves state-of-the-art performance and robustness to adversarial perturbations.