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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

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48 results for confounder detection

KRCD detects unobserved confounders in nonlinear observational data.

problem Detecting unobserved confounders in nonlinear observational studies.
method Kernel Regression Confounder Detection (KRCD) using reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
result KRCD outperforms existing methods and achieves superior computational efficiency.

Method detects confounders in high-dimensional linear models using spectral measure first moments.

problem Detecting confounders in high-dimensional linear models.
method Uses the first moment of the spectral measure of the regression coefficient vector.
result Statistical asymmetry in first moments of spectral measures indicates the presence of confounders.

Detect hidden confounding in observational data using multiple environments.

problem Detect hidden confounding in observational data.
method Theoretical framework and simulation studies to test for hidden confounding.
result The proposed procedure correctly predicts hidden confounding, especially when bias is large.

DECAT framework evaluates multimodal models for shared biology, detecting confounders and false positives.

problem Determining if multimodal models learn shared biology or just confounders.
method DECAT framework classifies multimodal representations into four diagnostic scenarios using null-referenced metrics.
result DECAT detects confounders and false positives in multimodal models, improving with larger cohorts and stronger representations.

Algorithm detects unmeasured confounding in observational data.

problem Estimating treatment effects in observational studies with untestable conditions.
method Two-stage procedure that detects dependencies between causal mechanisms.
result Algorithm efficiently detects confounding on simulated and semi-synthetic data.

Method detects confounding in multivariate models using spectral analysis.

problem Detecting confounding in multivariate linear models.
method Spectral analysis of covariance matrix and regression coefficients.
result Confounding typically spoils the generic orientation of regression coefficients, allowing quantification of confounding.

A new method uses randomized trials to estimate the strength of unobserved confounding.

problem Unobserved confounding compromises causal conclusions from non-randomized studies.
method Designs a statistical test to detect unobserved confounding strength and estimates a lower bound.
result Estimates an asymptotically valid lower bound on unobserved confounding strength.

Detects non-causal artifacts in multivariate regression models.

problem Identifying non-causal associations in multivariate linear regression models.
method Uses ICA-based model to distinguish between causal and artifact associations by analyzing the orientation of regression coefficients relative to the covariance matrix.
result Regression vectors concentrate in low eigenvalue space for confounding and overfitting, distinguishing them from causal relationships.

We consider learning a causal ordering of variables in a linear non-Gaussian acyclic model called LiNGAM. Several existing methods have been shown to consistently estimate a causal ordering assuming that all the model assumptions are correct. But, the estimation results could be distorted if some assumptions actually a…

2013-03-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Simulation study evaluates causal ML models under confounding violations.

problem Assessing conditional exchangeability in causal machine learning models.
method Simulation study with varying confounding, sample size, and NCO structures.
result Causal ML models fail to recover true treatment effect heterogeneity under violations of conditional exchangeability.

Paper tackles treatment leakage in text-based causal inference, proposing methods to mitigate bias.

problem Treatment leakage in text-as-confounder applications introduces bias in causal estimates.
method Formal definitions, four text distillation methods (passage removal, classification, salient feature removal, nullspace projection).
result Moderate distillation optimally balances bias reduction against confounder retention.

New monitoring method detects ML risk models' performance changes in medical interventions.

problem Monitoring ML risk models in healthcare is complicated by confounding medical interventions.
method Developed a new score-based CUSUM monitoring procedure with dynamic control limits.
result Valid inference is possible if conditional exchangeability or time-constant selection bias hold.

New deep architecture models uncertainty by sharing neural connectivity patterns.

problem Uncertainty modeling in deep neural networks remains challenging.
method Proposes a new deep architecture that shares neural connectivity patterns between generative and discriminative networks to model a confounder.
result Demonstrates significant improvement in uncertainty estimation compared to state-of-the-art methods.

New method estimates latent gene expression factors without overlap with known confounders.

problem Estimating latent variance components in gene expression data with known confounders.
method Restricted maximum-likelihood method maximizing likelihood on orthogonal subspace.
result Method reduces runtime and attains greater likelihood values than gradient-based optimizers.

The paper proposes a method to precisely decompose confounders and estimate treatment effects.

problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data with confounder identification and balancing.
method Learning decomposed representations to identify and balance confounders and non-confounders.
result The method achieves more precise treatment effect estimation than existing methods.

A new method detects interactions in machine learning models.

problem Interpreting non-linear and interaction effects in machine learning models.
method Regional effect plots with implicit interaction detection.
result The method quantifies and interprets feature effects reliably, less confounded by interactions.

Develops a deep survival model for causal inference in longitudinal studies.

problem Estimating treatment effects on time-to-event outcomes in observational studies with time-dependent covariates.
method TCS model using potential outcomes framework and ensemble of recurrent subnetworks.
result Identifies conditional average treatment effects and individual treatment effect heterogeneity over time.

Improves prediction performance on biological data by controlling confounding factors.

problem Challenges in statistical learning due to confounding variables in biological data.
method ONION for removing confounding covariates and DANN for penalizing confounder information.
result Significant improvements in generalization performance on simulated and empirical patient data.

Develops methods for estimating effects of multiple treatments with latent confounding.

problem Estimating effects of multiple treatments in the presence of unobserved confounding.
method Two assumptions based on shared confounding and independence of treatments given the confounder. Regularization by mutual information. Tractable lower bound for treatment effects.
result Validated on simulations and clinical medicine example, demonstrating estimation of treatment effects.

Paper tackles confounding bias in estimating individual treatment effects.

problem Estimating ITE from observational data with latent confounders.
method Adversarial learning framework using noisy proxies for latent confounders.
result Unbiased estimates of ITE achieved using noisy proxies.

Deconfounds neural network representation similarity metrics to improve consistency and accuracy.

problem Confounding by population structure in similarity metrics like RSA and CKA.
method Covariate adjustment regression to adjust for confounders.
result Improves detection of semantically similar neural networks and consistency in transfer learning.

Machine learning confound removal biases results, leading to misleading predictions.

problem Common confound removal methods in machine learning lead to misleading predictions.
method Featurewise removal of confound variance by linear regression before applying ML.
result This common deconfounding approach can leak information, amplifying null or moderate effects.

Causal relationships in time series with latent variables are discovered using LPCMCI.

problem Discovering causal relationships in complex, time-series data with hidden variables.
method Evaluated LPCMCI algorithm for finding generators compatible with multi-dimensional, autocorrelated time series with latent variables.
result LPCMCI performs better than random guessing but is not optimal.

Paper proposes RCD method to discover causal structure with latent confounders.

problem Causal discovery from data with latent confounders.
method Repetitive causal discovery (RCD) method to infer causal directions between observed variables.
result RCD effectively identifies latent confounders and causal directions between observed variables.

New method estimates policy performance under unobserved confounding.

problem Estimating policy performance when decisions depend on unobserved variables.
method Developed worst-case bounds for robust OPE under unobserved confounding.
result Efficient procedure for computing worst-case bounds, proving statistical consistency.

Study identifies conditions for proxy adjustment in confounded binary treatment outcomes.

problem Average causal effect estimation with a non-differentially mismeasured binary confounder.
method Identifies conditions for proxy adjustment in the presence of a non-differentially mismeasured binary confounder.
result Adjusting for a non-differentially mismeasured binary proxy can improve estimation of the average causal effect.

New algorithm learns causal graph to minimize regret in bandits without full structure.

problem Learning optimal decisions in bandits with unknown causal graph and latent confounders.
method Two-stage approach: first learns ancestors and necessary confounders, second applies standard bandit algorithm.
result No full causal structure needed for optimal decisions; only necessary confounders are crucial.

Consistent estimator derived for confounding strength in observational data.

problem Estimating confounding strength in observational data is challenging due to unobserved confounders.
method Derived and adapted a consistent estimator using tools from random matrix theory.
result The original estimator is not consistent, but an adapted one is.

Proposes tests to control confounding bias in predictive models.

problem Lack of non-parametric tests for confounding bias in predictive modeling.
method Partial and full confounder tests for probing null hypotheses of unconfounded and fully confounded models.
result Reveals previously unreported or hard-to-correct confounders in machine learning models.

New method tackles confounded bandit problems with dual instrumental variables.

problem Confounded contextual bandit problems where noise affects both contexts and rewards.
method Dual instrumental variable regression applied to reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
result Near-optimal convergence rate and computationally efficient algorithms proved.

CLOUD method detects causal relationships in various data types without latent variable assumptions.

problem Detecting causal relationships in the presence of unobserved common causes.
method CLOUD method using Normalized Maximum Likelihood (NML) Code for various data types (discrete, mixed, continuous).
result CLOUD method is more effective than existing methods in inferring causal relationships.

New methods prioritize acquiring confounding features for efficient treatment effect estimation.

problem Efficient treatment effect estimation from observational data with missing confounding information.
method Proposes two acquisition strategies: covariate balancing and reducing factual outcome error.
result Our proposed methods, especially reducing factual outcome error, improve sample efficiency for treatment effect estimation.

Valid causal inference with unobserved confounding in high-dimensional settings.

problem Estimating causal effects with unobserved confounders in high-dimensional data.
method Proposes methods to estimate causal effects with valid confidence intervals in the presence of unobserved confounders and high-dimensional nuisance models.
result Valid semiparametric inference can be obtained with unobserved confounding, and uncertainty intervals are proposed.

Spectral deconfounding improves machine learning models by reducing hidden confounding effects.

problem Machine learning models can be misled by hidden confounders, leading to unreliable predictions.
method Develops a nonlinear spectral deconfounding framework for gradient boosting that modifies boosting dynamics to slow down in confounding-aligned directions.
result Spectrally deconfounded boosting improves estimation of the target function under hidden confounding and is more scalable.

We propose a method for inferring the existence of a latent common cause ('confounder') of two observed random variables. The method assumes that the two effects of the confounder are (possibly nonlinear) functions of the confounder plus independent, additive noise. We discuss under which conditions the model is identi…

2012-05-09abs ↗pdf ↗