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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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326495127 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for confounded shift

Paper tackles backwards-compatible data adaptation for confounded covariate and label shifts.

problem Adapt covariates to predict labels confounded with covariate shifts.
method Proposes confounded shift framework based on minimizing divergence between source and target conditional distributions, conditioning on confounders.
result Demonstrates approach on synthetic and real datasets, achieving backwards-compatible data adaptation.

Paper tackles distribution shifts in prediction models with unobserved confounding.

problem Distribution shifts in prediction models with unobserved confounding.
method Linear structural causal model, invariant covariate representations, data-driven representation learning method.
result Optimizes for a lower-dimensional linear subspace and a prediction model confined to that subspace, achieving nearly ideal gap between target and source risk.

Boosted Control Functions improve prediction under distributional shifts.

problem Prediction under distributional shifts in the presence of hidden confounding.
method Boosted Control Function (BCF) and ControlTwicing algorithm.
result BCF allows for distribution generalization and invariance under nonlinear, non-identifiable structural functions.

Causality-aware methods outperform linear residualization in confounding adjustment for anticausal prediction.

problem Adjusting for confounding in anticausal prediction tasks.
method Causality-aware counterfactual confounding adjustment.
result Causality-aware methods asymptotically outperform linear residualization in predictive performance.

PESCAL uses mediators to learn from confounded offline data.

problem Learning from confounded observational data in reinforcement learning.
method PESCAL uses mediator variables and the pessimistic principle to address confounding bias and distributional shift.
result It is sufficient to learn a lower bound of the mediator distribution function to mitigate distributional shift.

New approach predicts under latent shifts using high-dimensional images.

problem Prediction under latent subgroup shifts with high-dimensional observations.
method Recognition-parametrised model (RPM) for identifying causal latent structure.
result Successfully adapts predictions for high-dimensional image data.

Framework uses human annotations to make models robust to spurious correlations.

problem Machine learning models fail when unmeasured variables change test distributions.
method Human annotations to augment training examples, UV-DRO objective for robustness.
result Improvements of 5-10% on digit recognition task and 1.5-5% on NYPD Police Stops analysis.

Method improves treatment effect prediction robust to unknown covariate shifts.

problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects for different populations.
method Post-processing CATE T-learners with multi-accurate predictors to handle unknown covariate shifts.
result Improves bias and mean squared error in simulations with covariate shifts.

NeuralCSA uses neural networks to analyze causal effects under unobserved confounding.

problem Challenges in causal inference from observational data due to unobserved confounding.
method Proposes a neural framework (NeuralCSA) for generalized causal sensitivity analysis.
result Demonstrates theoretical and empirical validity of NeuralCSA for causal inference.

New method deconfounds deep learning feature representations using counterfactual approach.

problem Improving model stability in deep learning models under dataset shifts.
method Adopting last layer features of DNNs trained with softmax activation for logistic regression, and applying counterfactual deconfounding.
result Counterfactual deconfounding can be applied to DNN feature representations, improving model stability.

New algorithm tackles confounding in offline RL for partially observable MDPs.

problem Confounding in offline reinforcement learning for partially observable MDPs.
method P3O algorithm using proximal causal inference and pessimistic confidence regions.
result Achieves n1/2n^{-1/2}-suboptimality for offline RL in POMDPs with confounded data.

New method exploits independence in instrumental variable models for better causal inference.

problem Identify causal functions in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method HSIC-X method that exploits independence between response, hidden confounders, and instruments.
result The method provides better finite sample results and is invariant to distributional shifts.

A new protocol corrects confounding effects to measure alignment-induced activation shifts accurately.

problem Confounding effects in measuring alignment-induced activation shifts using naive methods.
method Introduces a four-variant decomposition to separate alignment shift from template effects.
result Correctly measures alignment-induced activation shifts, recovering behaviorally active subspace.

Kernel methods identify treatment effects with unobserved confounding using negative controls.

problem Learning causal relationships with unmeasured confounding.
method Kernel ridge regression algorithms for nonparametric treatment effects.
result Uniform consistency and finite sample rates of convergence proved.

Proposes a method to improve treatment policies in data-scarce clinical settings.

problem Improving treatment policies in data-scarce clinical settings with unobserved confounding.
method Uses a causal mechanism to model the underlying generative process and augments counterfactual trajectories with source domain priors.
result Significantly improves treatment policy performance in a simulated sepsis treatment task.

Deep learning models can learn confounding factors instead of device fingerprints in wireless signals.

problem Learning device fingerprints from complex-valued deep neural networks in the presence of confounding factors.
method Investigating complex-valued deep neural networks (DNNs) to distinguish between wireless transmitters, focusing on clock drift and channel variations.
result DNNs learn confounding features rather than device-specific characteristics, requiring strategies to promote generalization.

CRL improves recommendation systems by reducing distribution shift.

problem Offline metrics fail to predict online performance due to distribution shift in recommender systems.
method Proposes an information-theoretic disentanglement criterion and a variational lower bound for better generalisation under distribution shift.
result CRL variants deliver substantial online gains in listener engagement compared to baseline models.

Stable health predictions need deconfounding test set features.

problem Stability of predictions in health machine learning is compromised by selection biases.
method Deconfounding the test set features improves prediction stability across different environments.
result Improved stability achieved by deconfounding test set features.

Study evaluates how changes in mobility affect COVID-19 case rates.

problem Mixed evidence on mobility-COVID-19 case rate associations.
method Modified treatment policy (MTP) approach with TMLE and Super Learner ensemble.
result Shifts in mobility do not consistently affect subsequent case rates after adjusting for confounders.

Method estimates treatment effects with continuous values, correcting for confounding.

problem Estimating treatment effects with continuous values, dealing with confounding.
method Two-stage kernel ridge regression: first stage learns response, second stage corrects for distribution shift.
result Optimal learning bounds achieved without estimating treatment density, adapts to unknown overlap and kernel spectral decay.

This work analyzes IRM and ERM from sample complexity perspective, revealing different behaviors under various distribution shifts.

problem Choosing between IRM and ERM for OOD generalization.
method Sample complexity analysis comparing IRM and ERM under different data generation mechanisms.
result IRM is preferred over ERM for certain distribution shifts, leading to better OOD generalization.

Study highlights robustness issues in healthcare diagnostic models due to distribution shifts.

problem Robustness of diagnostic models in healthcare is compromised by distribution shifts.
method Theoretical analysis and simulation studies to understand and mitigate shortcuts learned by models.
result Ignoring covariates or using invariant learning approaches leads to non-robust predictors.

New approach mitigates feedback divergence in imitation learning.

problem Divergence between held-out error and learner performance in imitation learning.
method Identifies covariate shift as the root cause and proposes a simulator-based solution.
result Naive behavioral cloning performs well in real-world decision making problems.

The paper proposes a method to precisely decompose confounders and estimate treatment effects.

problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data with confounder identification and balancing.
method Learning decomposed representations to identify and balance confounders and non-confounders.
result The method achieves more precise treatment effect estimation than existing methods.

SurvITE learns treatment effects from time-to-event data, addressing unique challenges.

problem Inferring heterogeneous treatment effects from time-to-event data.
method Proposes a novel deep learning method for treatment-specific hazard estimation.
result Method outperforms baselines by addressing covariate shifts from various sources.

Causal inference from observational data requires assumptions. These assumptions range from measuring confounders to identifying instruments. Traditionally, causal inference assumptions have focused on estimation of effects for a single treatment. In this work, we construct techniques for estimation with multiple treat…

2018-05-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Detect hidden confounding in observational data using multiple environments.

problem Detect hidden confounding in observational data.
method Theoretical framework and simulation studies to test for hidden confounding.
result The proposed procedure correctly predicts hidden confounding, especially when bias is large.

Machine learning confound removal biases results, leading to misleading predictions.

problem Common confound removal methods in machine learning lead to misleading predictions.
method Featurewise removal of confound variance by linear regression before applying ML.
result This common deconfounding approach can leak information, amplifying null or moderate effects.

KRCD detects unobserved confounders in nonlinear observational data.

problem Detecting unobserved confounders in nonlinear observational studies.
method Kernel Regression Confounder Detection (KRCD) using reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
result KRCD outperforms existing methods and achieves superior computational efficiency.

Study identifies conditions for proxy adjustment in confounded binary treatment outcomes.

problem Average causal effect estimation with a non-differentially mismeasured binary confounder.
method Identifies conditions for proxy adjustment in the presence of a non-differentially mismeasured binary confounder.
result Adjusting for a non-differentially mismeasured binary proxy can improve estimation of the average causal effect.

New method estimates policy performance under unobserved confounding.

problem Estimating policy performance when decisions depend on unobserved variables.
method Developed worst-case bounds for robust OPE under unobserved confounding.
result Efficient procedure for computing worst-case bounds, proving statistical consistency.

Consistent estimator derived for confounding strength in observational data.

problem Estimating confounding strength in observational data is challenging due to unobserved confounders.
method Derived and adapted a consistent estimator using tools from random matrix theory.
result The original estimator is not consistent, but an adapted one is.

A new method uses randomized trials to estimate the strength of unobserved confounding.

problem Unobserved confounding compromises causal conclusions from non-randomized studies.
method Designs a statistical test to detect unobserved confounding strength and estimates a lower bound.
result Estimates an asymptotically valid lower bound on unobserved confounding strength.