CPA framework assesses conditional validity of conformal prediction.
problem Challenges in evaluating conditional validity of conformal prediction.
method Reframes conditional coverage evaluation as a supervised learning task.
result Establishes convergence rates and proves CVI consistency.
Paper uses conformal prediction sets to make criminal justice risk assessments fairer.
problem Fairness issues in criminal justice risk assessment algorithms.
method Adopting conformal prediction sets to remove unfairness from algorithms and covariates.
result Constructs confusion tables and measures fairness effectively free of racial differences.
The paper introduces a method to assess machine translation quality with confidence intervals.
problem Evaluating the uncertainty and quality of machine translation.
method Utilizes conformal predictive distributions to produce prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage.
result The method outperforms a baseline on six language pairs in terms of coverage and sharpness.
Bayesian quadrature improves conformal prediction for better risk assessment.
problem Improving risk assessment for machine learning models.
method Revisiting conformal prediction from a Bayesian perspective and proposing Bayesian quadrature.
result Provides interpretable guarantees and a richer representation of likely losses.
AI systems need reliable testing to ensure safety and trustworthiness.
problem Current AI Act lacks functional trustworthiness for AI systems.
method Define technical application distribution, set risk-based performance, and conduct statistically valid testing.
result Reliable functional trustworthiness is essential for AI systems.
Advances rule-based multi-label classification using conformal prediction.
problem Improving accuracy and decision making in multi-label classification.
method Combines conformal prediction with rule-based learning to provide natural conformity scores and calibrate rule assessments.
result Calibrated conformity scores enhance prediction accuracy and decision making.
This work improves multi-task regression performance using approximations of full-conformal prediction.
problem Jointly solve multiple regression tasks with better performance than individual tasks.
method Design an approximating prediction region in RKHS for full-conformal multi-task regression.
result The approximating prediction region improves upon split-conformal prediction on synthetic data.
CREDO assesses decision optimality under uncertainty without assuming a model.
problem Uncertainty in decision-making without reliable quantification of optimality.
method CREDO uses the inverse feasible region and conformal prediction balls to estimate decision optimality probability.
result CREDO provides accurate, efficient, and reliable evaluations of decision optimality.
E-scores assess LLM outputs for correctness, addressing p-hacking issues.
problem Limited principled mechanisms to assess generative model correctness.
method Use e-values to complement LLM outputs with e-scores, providing flexibility in tolerance levels.
result Achieves guarantees of correctness assessment and upper bounds size distortion.
CE improves climate uncertainty quantification using GCM ensembles and observational data.
problem Uncertainty in climate projections due to model inadequacies and variability.
method Conformal ensembles integrating GCM ensembles and observational data.
result CE generates statistically rigorous, easy-to-interpret uncertainty estimates.
Anomalies (unusual patterns) in time-series data give essential, and often actionable information in critical situations. Examples can be found in such fields as healthcare, intrusion detection, finance, security and flight safety. In this paper we propose new conformalized density- and distance-based anomaly detection…
Proposes a synthesis algorithm using Conformal Prediction for improved Deep Learning performance.
problem Assessing the quality of synthesised data for high-stake domains.
method Conformal Prediction framework for generating data from high-confidence feature space regions.
result Training sets extended with confident synthesised data improved Deep Learning performance by up to 61 percentage points F1-score.
COLoKe adapts Koopman embeddings online, reducing overfitting and improving long-term predictions.
problem Online adaptation of Koopman embeddings to avoid overfitting and maintain long-term predictive accuracy.
method Combines deep feature learning with multistep prediction consistency in a lifted space, using a conformal-style mechanism for selective updates.
result Empirically effective in reducing overfitting and maintaining long-term predictive accuracy.
New methods control false discoveries near the boundary in conformal novelty detection.
problem Over-optimistic assessments near the rejection threshold in conformal novelty detection.
method Support line (SL) correction and alternative procedures to control boundary false discovery rate (bFDR).
result New procedures control the boundary false discovery rate (bFDR) in the conformal setting.
Study online conformal prediction for non-stationary data with optimal training-conditional regret.
problem Online prediction for non-stationary data streams with unknown distribution drift.
method Proposes split-conformal and full-conformal algorithms that adapt to drift detection and incorporate stability for online learning.
result Proves minimax-optimal regret for online full conformal algorithm under appropriate restrictions.
New method improves predictive systems with better theoretical guarantees.
problem Constructing predictive systems with out-of-sample calibration guarantees.
method Residual Distribution Predictive Systems (RDPs) that nest conformal predictive systems and offer flexibility.
result Empirically, RDPs perform competitively with conformal predictive systems and can be implemented with various regression methods.
ECI improves time series prediction uncertainty quantification by smoothing miscoverage error.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification for time series prediction due to temporal dependence and distribution shift.
method Error-quantified Conformal Inference (ECI) by smoothing quantile loss function and introducing adaptive feedback scale.
result ECI achieves valid miscoverage control and tighter prediction sets than existing methods.
PersonalizedUS assesses breast cancer risk with local coverage guarantees.
problem Manual BI-RADS scoring leads to unnecessary biopsies and mental health burden.
method Conformal prediction for precise, personalized risk estimates.
result Local coverage guarantees with high sensitivity and specificity.
Paper introduces a method to improve survival model calibration without sacrificing discrimination.
problem Survival models struggle to balance accurate ranking and event prediction.
method Uses conformal regression to enhance calibration without compromising discrimination.
result The approach improves model calibration across 11 real-world datasets.
New approach to fairness in machine learning models using conformal prediction.
problem Fairness in machine learning models' downstream decision-making.
method Theoretical derivation and empirical evaluation of label-clustered conformal prediction.
result Label-clustered conformal prediction often provides a favorable balance between utility and substantive fairness.
This work proposes using Conformal Prediction to improve OOD detection scores and vice versa.
problem Improper evaluation of OOD detection scores due to finite sample size.
method Defining new conformal AUROC and FRP@TPR95 metrics and using OOD scores as non-conformity scores.
result Improved evaluation metrics and better interpretation of OOD scores.
In this work we present a clustering technique called \textit{multi-level conformal clustering (MLCC)}. The technique is hierarchical in nature because it can be performed at multiple significance levels which yields greater insight into the data than performing it at just one level. We describe the theoretical underpi…
Paper tightens optimization bounds using conformal prediction.
problem Lack of practical informiveness in dual bounds from optimization solvers.
method Introduces conformal prediction framework to tighten loose primal and dual bounds.
result Proposed method produces tighter, more informative prediction intervals.
New methods for quantifying insurance claim cost uncertainty using LightGBM and GLMs.
problem Quantifying prediction uncertainty in insurance claim costs.
method Proposed non-conformity measures for GLMs and GBMs with Tweedie loss.
result Locally weighted Pearson residuals outperform other methods in maintaining nominal coverage with smallest average width.
New method combines HQR and WACI for better time series prediction intervals.
problem Challenges in creating reliable prediction intervals for time series forecasting.
method Combining Heteroscedastic Quantile Regression (HQR) with Width-Adaptive Conformal Inference (WACI).
result Combined approach meets or surpasses typical benchmarks for validity and efficiency.
This paper evaluates conformal prediction for aerial image classification in challenging environments.
problem Challenging aerial image classification in data-scarce, unconstrained environments.
method Conformal prediction applied to pretrained models (MobileNet, DenseNet, ResNet) with limited labeled data.
result Conformal prediction can provide valuable uncertainty estimates even with small labeled samples.
GeoConformal predicts spatial uncertainty without relying on specific models.
problem Measuring uncertainty in spatial predictions to enhance model credibility.
method GeoConformal Prediction integrates geographical weighting into conformal prediction.
result GeoConformal achieves higher coverage rates in uncertainty assessment compared to Bootstrap methods.
This study compares two methods for uncertainty estimation in CNNs, finding Conformal Prediction more reliable.
problem CNNs often overestimate uncertainty, leading to unreliable predictions.
method Bayesian approximation via Monte Carlo Dropout and Conformal Prediction.
result Conformal Prediction produces more reliable uncertainty estimates than Monte Carlo Dropout.
One of the fundamental questions of cultural evolutionary research is how individual-level processes scale up to generate population-level patterns. Previous studies in music have revealed that frequency-based bias (e.g. conformity and novelty) drives large-scale cultural diversity in different ways across domains and …
Seismic inversion method uses GAN to improve efficiency and accuracy.
problem Difficulty in combining geological knowledge with seismic data and assessing uncertainty.
method Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) for seismic inversion.
result GAN-generated models conform to observation data with low uncertainty.
New metrics improve understanding of predictive system reliability.
problem Evaluating conditional coverage of predictive systems.
method Casting conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem, using excess risk of the target coverage (ERT) metrics.
result Modern classifiers provide higher statistical power for estimating conditional coverage.
MAPIE provides uncertainty quantification for ML models.
problem Estimating uncertainties in ML model predictions.
method Conformal prediction methods for single-output regression and multi-class classification.
result Strong theoretical guarantees on marginal coverages.
Unified theoretical guarantees for distribution-free changepoint detection and testing.
problem Distribution-free changepoint inference with finite-sample validity and consistency.
method Distribution-free changepoint localization using conformal p-values with theoretical guarantees.
result Unified distribution-free guarantees for changepoint detection, localization, and testing.
New methods improve confidence set calibration in complex models.
problem Challenges in maintaining confidence set coverage in complex models.
method TRUST and TRUST++ methods using simulated data for calibration.
result Methods achieve distribution-free conditional coverage and robust inference.
CoDrug uses KDE to create valid prediction sets for drug molecules under covariate shift.
problem Creating reliable uncertainty estimates for drug properties from computational models.
method CoDrug employs an energy-based model and KDE to assess and rectify distribution shift.
result CoDrug reduces the coverage gap by over 35% compared to non-adjusted conformal prediction sets.
A new method detects distribution shifts faster than existing CTMs.
problem Detecting distribution shifts in data streams with contamination issues.
method Uses a fixed reference dataset to compare each new sample, avoiding contamination.
result Detects distribution shifts faster and more reliably than standard CTMs.
Two-stage risk control for ranked retrieval systems.
problem Assessing prediction uncertainty and risk control in sequential machine learning systems.
method Developed two-stage risk control methods based on LTT and CRC frameworks, leveraging sequential nature of retrieval and ranking phases.
result The proposed methods provide theoretical guarantees and reduce computational burden compared to prior work.
New method predicts spatial events like hurricanes and earthquakes with uncertainty.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in natural hazard predictions.
method Representing spatial point clouds as empirical measures, constraining prediction sets to spatial data manifold, using Wasserstein distance.
result Achieves near-nominal coverage and lower energy/manifold distances compared to baselines.
The paper introduces CPICFs for better counterfactual explanations in high-dimensional spaces.
problem Creating useful counterfactual explanations for complex machine learning models.
method Modeling individual knowledge and using conformal prediction intervals to identify informative counterfactuals.
result CPICFs provide more informative counterfactuals by considering individual knowledge and prediction uncertainty.
New neural network solves Nirenberg problem for curvature on sphere.
problem Prescribing Gaussian curvature on S2 for metrics conformal to the round metric. method Mesh-free physics-informed neural network (PINN) that directly parametrises the conformal factor.
result Neural network achieves very low losses for realisable curvatures, distinguishing them from non-realisable ones.
Proposes a new method for reliable treatment effect interval estimates.
problem Uncertainty quantification in treatment effect estimation.
method Conformal inference for counterfactuals and individual treatment effects.
result Achieves desired coverage with short intervals in various settings.
We develop a method to estimate the time to unsafe responses in LLMs.
problem Estimating the time to unsafe responses in large language models is challenging due to the rarity of unsafe outputs.
method We frame the problem as survival analysis and propose a calibration technique for constructing a lower predictive bound (LPB).
result Our method provides rigorous coverage guarantees and improves sample efficiency.
Deployment-complete benchmarking assesses if evidence leads to consistent deployment actions.
problem Lack of clear evidence leading to consistent deployment actions.
method Introduces deployment-complete benchmarking to test if benchmark evidence determines deployment actions.
result Benchmark evidence must be complete for a claim to lead to a consistent deployment action.
iQRA improves probabilistic forecasts of electricity prices.
problem Lack of uncertainty estimates in machine learning forecasts for volatile markets.
method Isotonic Quantile Regression Averaging (iQRA) with stochastic order constraints.
result iQRA outperforms state-of-the-art methods in reliability and sharpness.
Enhances ocean floor mapping with adaptive uncertainty estimates.
problem Inaccurate bathymetric data for precise ocean modeling.
method Block-based conformal prediction with VQ-VAE architecture.
result Significant improvements in reconstruction quality and uncertainty estimation reliability.
New methods improve robust decision-making under uncertainty in off-policy evaluation.
problem Statistical uncertainty and causal considerations in off-policy evaluation.
method Marginal Ratio (MR) estimator, Conformal Off-Policy Prediction (COPP), causal bounds.
result Improved robustness and uncertainty quantification in off-policy decision-making.
Protein structure prediction has been a grand challenge problem in the structure biology over the last few decades. Protein quality assessment plays a very important role in protein structure prediction. In the paper, we propose a new protein quality assessment method which can predict both local and global quality of …
New compact examples of pseudo-Kähler manifolds with essential conformal transformations found.
problem Existence of essential conformal transformations in pseudo-Riemannian manifolds.
method Construction of compact locally conformally pseudo-Kähler manifolds with essential conformal transformations.
result Found compact examples of pseudo-Kähler manifolds with essential conformal transformations that are not conformally flat.