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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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3569104138 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for conformal trajectories

The paper defines and analyzes conformal trajectories in 3D space forms.

problem Understanding trajectories in curved 3D spaces.
method Defined conformal trajectories and studied their properties in R3{\mathbb{R}}^3, S3{\mathbb{S}}^3, and H3{\mathbb{H}}^3.
result Conformal trajectories in S3{\mathbb{S}}^3 and H3{\mathbb{H}}^3 have constant curvature and torsion.

The paper extends conformal prediction to MDP trajectories for autonomous systems.

problem Ensuring reliability of autonomous systems by providing probabilistic guarantees.
method Applying conformal corrections to quantile regression prediction intervals.
result Conformal prediction intervals ensure the observed trajectory lies inside with high probability.

New method for predicting paths of unpredictable objects with high confidence.

problem Need for dependable uncertainty estimates in motion planning with diverse unpredictable objects.
method Blend online conformal prediction, multiple time series techniques, and heteroscedasticity addressing.
result Simultaneous forecasting bands that cover entire paths with high probability.

Method predicts biomarker trajectories with uncertainty bands for Alzheimer's disease.

problem Uncertainty in biomarker predictions poses risks in clinical deployment.
method Conformal prediction for randomly-timed biomarker trajectories.
result Conformal bands achieve desired coverage and are tighter than baseline.

Study risk-controlling prediction sets for single trajectory data from dynamical systems.

problem Performance guarantees for risk-controlling prediction sets in single trajectory data from unknown stochastic dynamical systems.
method Used blocking and decoupling techniques to analyze performance guarantees under different data generating processes.
result Performance guarantees similar to iid setting when data is stationary and contractive, with graceful degradation otherwise.

Efficiently samples conformal boundaries in high dimensions using flows.

problem Difficulty in interpreting and using prediction sets in high-dimensional or structured output spaces.
method Flow-based approach using differentiable nonconformity scores to induce deterministic flows on the output space.
result Sampling conformal boundaries in arbitrary dimensions becomes computationally efficient and training-free.

ToolChain-CRC addresses the risk-control problem for retrieval-augmented and tool-using agents under drift.

problem Risk-control problem for retrieval-augmented and tool-using agents under drift.
method ToolChain-CRC uses conformal risk-control under exchangeable calibration runs.
result Trajectory-level risk control keeps accepted-trajectory risk below the target.

MA-COPP predicts multi-agent system outcomes using data from a different policy, with probabilistic guarantees.

problem Predicting outcomes in multi-agent systems using data from a different policy.
method Conformal prediction framework applied to multi-agent systems, avoiding exhaustive search.
result Achieves probabilistic guarantees for multi-agent system predictions.

We study the conformal geometry of timelike curves in the (1+2)-Einstein universe, the conformal compactification of Minkowski 3-space defined as the quotient of the null cone of R2,3\mathbb{R}^{2,3} by the action by positive scalar multiplications. The purpose is to describe local and global conformal invariants of time…

2016-03-03abs ↗pdf ↗

New method predicts Alzheimer's risk with individual uncertainty estimates.

problem Predicting conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease.
method Persistent homology of clinical trajectories combined with stacking ensemble.
result Pipeline achieves high accuracy and individual-level uncertainty quantification.

Robot motions in the presence of humans should not only be feasible and safe, but also conform to human preferences. This, however, requires user feedback on the robot's behavior. In this work, we propose a novel approach to leverage the user's brain signals as a feedback modality in order to decode the judgment of rob…

2019-09-03abs ↗pdf ↗

By a conformal string in Euclidean space is meant a closed critical curve with non-constant conformal curvatures of the conformal arclength functional. We prove that (1) the set of conformal classes of conformal strings is in 1-1 correspondence with the rational points of the complex domain $\{q\in \mathbb{C} \,:\, 1/2…

2015-01-16abs ↗pdf ↗

New approach constructs symplectic structure on pseudo-Riemannian geodesics.

problem Dimensional mismatch in classical symplectic structure construction for pseudo-Riemannian geodesics.
method Directly constructs geodesic space as quotient, introduces conformal co-symplectic structure.
result Conformal co-symplectic structure globally describes geometric distribution of geodesics.

Proposes a recursive MPC scheme with probabilistic safety guarantees for uncertain dynamic systems.

problem Probabilistic safety guarantees for MPC in dynamic environments with unknown stochastic agents.
method Uses conformal prediction to derive high-confidence prediction regions and gradually relax safety constraints online.
result Ensures recursive feasibility of MPC schemes by relaxing safety constraints over time.

Projective geodesic extensions for nonholonomic systems are derived under conformal transformations.

problem Deriving conditions for projective geodesic extensions in nonholonomic mechanics.
method Analyzing necessary and sufficient conditions for existence under conformal modifications.
result Conditions for existence of projective geodesic extensions in nonholonomic systems under conformal transformations.

New dataset abla2 abla^2DFT for drug-like molecules benchmarks neural network potentials.

problem Lack of large, diverse datasets for training neural network potentials in quantum chemistry.
method Developed a new dataset abla2 abla^2DFT containing energies, forces, and molecular properties for drug-like molecules.
result First dataset with relaxation trajectories for drug-like molecules.

TRACE improves conformal prediction for multi-dimensional outputs.

problem Challenges in constructing valid and informative conformal prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs.
method TRACE uses transport alignment in diffusion and flow matching models to define nonconformity scores.
result TRACE yields valid and adaptive conformal prediction regions for multimodal and non-convex distributions.

SPLICE generates accurate time-series imputations with reliable prediction intervals.

problem Lack of reliability guarantees in time-series imputation models.
method Modular framework combining latent generative imputation with distribution-free prediction intervals.
result SPLICE achieves lowest mean Load-only MSE and best CRPS on various datasets.

A new framework uses stochastic optimal control to estimate rare events more accurately.

problem Estimating rare events like chemical reactions in biomolecules is computationally challenging.
method The approach casts committor estimation as a stochastic optimal control problem, developing direct and off-policy Value Matching losses.
result The framework yields more accurate committor estimates, reaction rates, and equilibrium constants.

We study the problem of discriminative sub-trajectory mining. Given two groups of trajectories, the goal of this problem is to extract moving patterns in the form of sub-trajectories which are more similar to sub-trajectories of one group and less similar to those of the other. We propose a new method called Statistica…

2019-05-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper uses deep imitation learning to predict aircraft trajectories accurately.

problem Inefficient and costly Air Traffic Management system limits predictability.
method Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning framework with trajectory clustering and classification.
result Accurate predictions for entire trajectory stages, pre- and tactical.

CSP improves time-series forecasting without training, outperforming DeepNPTS in speed and accuracy.

problem Improving probabilistic time-series forecasting without training.
method Mixing empirical and residual draws around a seasonal naive forecast.
result CSP significantly outperforms DeepNPTS on CRPS, normalized mean quantile loss, and coverage metrics.

CoNBONet improves reliability analysis of complex systems with fast, energy-efficient predictions.

problem Time-dependent reliability analysis of nonlinear systems under stochastic excitations is computationally demanding.
method CoNBONet combines deep operator networks with neuroscience-inspired neuron models for fast, energy-efficient inference.
result CoNBONet provides reliable coverage of failure probabilities with theoretical guarantees.

Generative model learns vehicle trajectory distributions for better data generalization.

problem Data sparsity and privacy issues in urban vehicle trajectory analysis.
method Generative adversarial imitation learning framework for urban vehicle trajectory generation.
result TrajGAIL model produces synthetic trajectories similar to real ones, achieving significant performance gains.

Analyzing the urban trajectory in cities has become an important topic in data mining. How can we model the human mobility consisting of stay and travel from the raw trajectory data? How can we infer such a mobility model from the single trajectory information? How can we further generalize the mobility inference to ac…

2020-01-21abs ↗pdf ↗

We address the problem of abnormal event detection from trajectory data. In this paper, a new adversarial approach is proposed for building a deep neural network binary classifier, trained in an unsupervised fashion, that can distinguish normal from abnormal trajectory-based events without the need for setting manual d…

2019-03-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops MENT for interpreting and detecting changes in network trajectories.

problem Distortion of network geometry and invalidation of temporal comparisons in dynamic network analysis.
method Develops Multiscale Euclidean Network Trajectories (MENT) framework based on second-moment geometry.
result Validates and interprets network trajectories through isotropic normalization and orthogonal transformations.

Trajectory owner prediction is the basis for many applications such as personalized recommendation, urban planning. Although much effort has been put on this topic, the results archived are still not good enough. Existing methods mainly employ RNNs to model trajectories semantically due to the inherent sequential attri…

2020-01-05abs ↗pdf ↗

We present CoverNet, a new method for multimodal, probabilistic trajectory prediction for urban driving. Previous work has employed a variety of methods, including multimodal regression, occupancy maps, and 1-step stochastic policies. We instead frame the trajectory prediction problem as classification over a diverse s…

2019-11-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Algorithm learns mixtures of Markov chains and MDPs from short trajectories.

problem Learning mixtures of Markov chains and MDPs from short unlabeled trajectories.
method Subspace estimation, spectral clustering, EM algorithm, model estimation, classification.
result 96.6% average accuracy on a mixture of two MDPs in gridworld, outperforming EM algorithm with random initialization.