Extends conformal prediction for controlling expected risk of monotone loss functions.
problem Controlling expected risk of monotone loss functions.
method Generalizes split conformal prediction with coverage guarantee, extending to distribution shift, quantile risk, multiple, adversarial, and expectations of U-statistics.
result Tight up to an O ( 1 / n ) \mathcal{O}(1/n) O ( 1/ n ) factor, with worked examples in computer vision and natural language processing. Develops methods to control risk in ordinal classification tasks.
problem Controlling risk in ordinal classification tasks.
method Formulated ordinal classification in conformal risk control framework, proposed loss functions and algorithms.
result Demonstrated effectiveness and analyzed differences in risk control methods.
This paper improves risk control for financial markets by calibrating VaR forecasts using conformal methods.
problem Nonstationary and regime-dependent losses in financial markets.
method Regime-weighted conformal risk control (RWC) for VaR forecasting.
result RWC improves regime-conditional stability in some settings with modest conservativeness changes.
New risk control method for non-monotonic losses in complex parameters.
problem Controlling risk for non-monotonic losses with multidimensional parameters.
method Stability-based guarantees for generic algorithms applied to non-monotonic losses.
result Guarantees depend on algorithm stability, with looser guarantees for unstable algorithms.
Develops PromptShift-CRC for drift-aware conformal risk control in foundation models under prompt and domain shift.
problem Fixed calibration risk in foundation models due to prompt and domain shift.
method Embeds prompts and responses, measures drift, gives more weight to recent examples, and updates risk online.
result Develops method to control risk up to terms for distribution mismatch and weighted quantile uncertainty.
The paper extends conformal risk control to be valid with high probability over a growing calibration dataset.
problem Valid risk control over a growing calibration dataset.
method Quantile-based arguments for anytime-valid control.
result Guarantees remain valid with high probability over a cumulatively growing calibration dataset.
A new method controls risk for set predictors using cross-validation.
problem Inefficient set predictors when data limited.
method Cross-validation conformal risk control (CV-CRC).
result CV-CRC offers theoretical guarantees and reduces set size.
SCoRE provides risk control for selective prediction models.
problem Enforcing strict error control in selective prediction models.
method SCoRE framework based on conformal inference and hypothesis testing.
result SCoRE offers binary trust decisions with finite-sample error control.
New method improves reliability of object detection models.
problem Lack of reliability in neural networks for safety-critical applications.
method Sequential Conformal Risk Control (SeqCRC) for object detection.
result Valid statistical guarantees for any dataset size without prior knowledge.
Two-stage risk control for ranked retrieval systems.
problem Assessing prediction uncertainty and risk control in sequential machine learning systems.
method Developed two-stage risk control methods based on LTT and CRC frameworks, leveraging sequential nature of retrieval and ranking phases.
result The proposed methods provide theoretical guarantees and reduce computational burden compared to prior work.
New method calibrates diffusion models for image regression tasks.
problem Ensuring reliability of diffusion models for critical applications.
method Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets (RCPS) with convex optimization.
result Calibrated entrywise intervals and risk control with minimal mean interval length.
Proposes non-exchangeable conformal risk control for better uncertainty bounds.
problem Handling non-exchangeable data in black-box models for better risk control.
method Leverages and extends split conformal prediction and monotone loss function approaches.
result Allows controlling expected value of any monotone loss function for non-exchangeable data.
ToolChain-CRC addresses the risk-control problem for retrieval-augmented and tool-using agents under drift.
problem Risk-control problem for retrieval-augmented and tool-using agents under drift.
method ToolChain-CRC uses conformal risk-control under exchangeable calibration runs.
result Trajectory-level risk control keeps accepted-trajectory risk below the target.
Study risk-controlling prediction sets for single trajectory data from dynamical systems.
problem Performance guarantees for risk-controlling prediction sets in single trajectory data from unknown stochastic dynamical systems.
method Used blocking and decoupling techniques to analyze performance guarantees under different data generating processes.
result Performance guarantees similar to iid setting when data is stationary and contractive, with graceful degradation otherwise.
The paper proposes a method to align AI models using conformal risk control.
problem Aligning AI models to meet end-user requirements in non-generative settings.
method Post-processing a pre-trained model to better align with a subset of functions using conformal risk control.
result A probabilistic guarantee that the resulting conformal interval around a model contains a function approximately satisfying a desired property.
Develops a framework to control risk in online learning models.
problem Rigorous uncertainty quantification for online learning models.
method A framework for constructing uncertainty sets that provably control risk.
result Guarantees risk control at any user-specified level even with distribution shifts.
The paper uses conformal prediction to detect railway signals with confidence.
problem Deploying deep learning models in certified systems requires accurate uncertainty estimates.
method The paper uses conformal prediction and risk control to detect railway signals.
result The conformal prediction framework provides reliable and trustworthy uncertainty estimates for model performance.
Study robustness of conformal prediction to label noise in regression and classification.
problem Robustness of conformal prediction to label noise in regression and classification.
method Characterized robustness of conformal prediction for both regression and classification problems, extending theory to control general loss functions.
result Conformal prediction and risk-controlling techniques can achieve conservative risk over clean ground truth labels with noisy labels.
Framework ensures alignment between humans and machines in LLMs.
problem Human-machine misalignment in LLMs scoring mechanisms.
method Lightweight calibration framework for blackbox models.
result Provably guarantees alignment between humans and machines.
Paper introduces novel model selection for CRO to balance robustness and decision risk.
problem Balancing robustness and decision risk in CRO.
method Conformalized Robust Optimization with Model Selection (CROMS) framework.
result Significant improvements in decision efficiency across various applications.
Adapts safe policies for exploration in high-risk settings.
problem Balancing safety and exploration in high-risk environments.
method Uses conformal calibration on a safe reference policy to determine aggressive action limits.
result Safe exploration improves performance without requiring model class identification or hyperparameter tuning.
Paper proposes real-time VaR estimation using quantile regression forest with conformal calibration.
problem Real-time estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) in rapidly changing markets.
method Quantile regression forest trained offline, real-time VaR estimates via observed risk factors, conformalized estimator for reliability.
result The proposed method provides reliable real-time VaR estimates.
A new framework improves VaR recalibration by balancing reliance on imperfect volatility proxies.
problem How to balance reliance on imperfect volatility proxies in one-sided VaR recalibration.
method Proxy-reliance control framework that interpolates between constant-shift and proxy-scaled corrections.
result Lower or intermediate proxy reliance can outperform fully proxy-scaled recalibration in stressed left-tail VaR control.
CSA fills a gap in RLVR-trained LLM deployment by providing anytime-valid selective risk control.
problem Deployment of RLVR-trained LLMs in regulated organizations requires a safety certificate for every round without waiting for long-run averages.
method CSA uses a (test statistic, validity guarantee, deployment rule) framework to fill the gap, maintaining a Ville-type e-process per threshold on a Bonferroni grid.
result CSA provides the first anytime-valid selective risk control for RLVR-trained LLMs, matching the long-run average certification rate and satisfying pathwise validity and non-refusing deployment on every cell.
New framework calibrates decision robustness using inverse conformal risk control.
problem Inadequate robustness levels in decision-making due to ad hoc choices.
method Constructs valid estimators to trace miscoverage-regret Pareto frontier.
result Provides distribution-free, finite-sample guarantees on robustness levels.
A new conformal prediction framework for two-stage models identifies stage-wise uncertainty.
problem Limited coverage guarantees and lack of modular structure understanding in existing conformal prediction methods.
method Decomposes prediction residuals into stage-specific components, calibrates parameters using FWER control, and adapts to non-stationary settings.
result Improves coverage and identifies stage-wise error contributions compared to standard conformal methods.
Study non-monotonic loss functions in CRC, achieving valid risk control with large calibration samples.
problem Non-monotonic loss functions in CRC, violating existing theory's monotonicity assumption.
method Finite grid selection, calibration sample size analysis, Lipschitz continuity, monotonicity, distribution shift.
result Valid CRC achieved with large calibration samples, optimal excess risk rate of log ( m ) / n \sqrt{\log(m)/n} log ( m ) / n . A mechanism to share risks and costs with guarantees against extreme outcomes.
problem Softening extreme individual burdens in risk sharing schemes.
method Formalizes Certified Allocation Problem; uses Conformal Risk Sharing with interpretable sharing policy and split conformal calibration.
result Reduces extreme obligations for high-risk agents while controlling harm to others.
Proposes methods for online conformal prediction with nested prediction sets across multiple confidence levels.
problem Need for uncertainty quantification with multiple confidence levels in diverse applications.
method Online optimization perspective to enforce nestedness of prediction sets while controlling quantile estimation error.
result Achieves stable coverage across all levels, strictly nested prediction sets, and improved efficiency.
CRC method provides tighter uncertainty intervals for CT images.
problem Expressing uncertainty in CT images in clinically meaningful terms.
method Semantically adaptive CRC procedure leveraging length minimization.
result Valid coverage of ground-truth images with tighter uncertainty intervals.
Paper proves conformal prediction works for any data distribution.
problem Quantifying risk in AI systems with non-exchangeable data.
method Developed a method to extend conformal prediction to any data distribution.
result Valid conformal prediction guarantees for any data distribution.
Generative AI reduces IR evaluation costs but introduces errors; this work provides reliable CIs.
problem Generating relevance annotations using AI introduces errors that affect IR evaluation metrics.
method Proposes two methods: prediction-powered inference and conformal risk control to place reliable CIs around IR metrics.
result Proposed methods accurately capture both variance and bias in evaluation based on AI-generated annotations.
Max-rank improves multiple testing in conformal prediction.
problem Simultaneous testing of multiple hypotheses in scientific inquiries.
method Introduces max-rank, a novel correction for positive dependencies in simultaneous testing.
result Max-rank efficiently controls family-wise error rate and improves predictive uncertainty estimates.
Optimal controls for conformal Laplacian obstacle problems on spheres and manifolds.
problem Optimal control of conformal metrics with constant scalar curvature.
method Analysis of optimal control problem on Riemannian manifolds with positive Yamabe invariant.
result Existence of smooth optimal controls inducing metrics with constant scalar curvature.
Conf-Gen applies uncertainty quantification to generative models.
problem Uncertainty quantification for unsupervised generative models.
method Adapts CRC to generative tasks, relaxing theoretical assumptions.
result Demonstrates flexibility and correctness of AI agent outputs.
Enhances statistical inference using synthetic data.
problem Limited labeled data for statistical inference.
method GESPI framework that combines synthetic and real data.
result Error rate remains below a user-specified bound and decreases with synthetic data quality.
The paper analyzes how conformal prediction works with contaminated reference data.
problem The impact of contamination on the validity and power of conformal prediction methods.
method The paper analyzes the impact of contamination on the validity of conformal methods and proposes a data-cleaning framework to enhance power.
result The proposed data-cleaning framework can effectively enhance power while maintaining type-I error control.
New methods control false discoveries near the boundary in conformal novelty detection.
problem Over-optimistic assessments near the rejection threshold in conformal novelty detection.
method Support line (SL) correction and alternative procedures to control boundary false discovery rate (bFDR).
result New procedures control the boundary false discovery rate (bFDR) in the conformal setting.
New method for valid prediction intervals with coarsened data.
problem Handling missing data and censored outcomes in training samples.
method Multiply robust conformal risk control with semiparametric theory.
result Stronger coverage properties under covariate shift.
New boundary and point constraints for controlling conformal surfaces.
problem Controlling the geometry of surfaces defined by minimizers of conformal variational problems.
method Introducing new boundary conditions, point constraints, and flux constraints to control the metric and conformal scale factor.
result Introduces intuitive controls for exploring a subspace of conformal immersions.
Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample guarantees for black-box models without distributional assumptions.
problem Weak performance guarantees for modern predictive models under minimal assumptions.
method Develops finite-sample guarantees for split conformal prediction, a method that uses nested prediction sets and order statistics.
result The coverage of prediction sets based on order statistics stochastically dominates the Beta distribution.
New methods adapt conformal prediction to unknown subpopulation shifts.
problem Failure of conformal prediction under unknown subpopulation shifts.
method Proposes new methods that adapt conformal prediction to unknown subpopulation shifts without explicit subpopulation labels.
result Ensures valid coverage guarantees without explicit knowledge of subpopulation structure.
We enhance conformal prediction for risk-averse decisions with action-conditional guarantees.
problem Uncertainty quantification and safety guarantees for machine learning decisions.
method Action-conditional conformal prediction, pinball-loss minimization.
result Action-conditional prediction sets optimize risk-averse decision-making.
Decision-calibrated prediction sets improve power system operations by reducing unnecessary costs.
problem Balancing operating costs and reliability in power systems with renewable uncertainty.
method Learn conditional prediction sets as sub-level sets of norm-based score functions, calibrate uncertainty sets based on reliability of downstream decisions.
result Decision-calibrated sets lead to more efficient operations with smaller uncertainty sets and lower costs compared to standard coverage-based calibration.
The paper proposes methods to control errors in language generation models using textual entailment.
problem The lack of a correctness metric hinders applying principled methods to language generation tasks.
method The paper leverages textual entailment to evaluate correctness and proposes two selective generation algorithms: SGen^Sup and SGen^Semi.
result The proposed algorithms control the false discovery rate with respect to textual entailment and achieve comparable selection efficiency to baselines.
Develops a two-stage conformal prediction method for Parkinson's disease medication needs.
problem Heterogeneous disease progression and treatment response in Parkinson's Disease.
method Two-stage conformal prediction framework with statistical guarantees.
result Quantifies uncertainty in medication needs predictions, improving clinical trust and quality of life.
PH-CS selects test inputs with reliability guarantees, adapting FDR to data.
problem Fixed FDR limits adaptability to downstream needs.
method Post-hoc conformal selection with e-variables, e-BH procedure.
result PH-CS provides reliable FDP estimates and competitive FDR control.
Paper studies optimal control for a specific geometric problem.
problem Optimal control problem associated with the Paneitz obstacle problem.
method Existence and regularity results for optimal controls.
result Existence of optimal controls and their properties.