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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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96192287383 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for confidence weighted majority voting

The paper improves confidence regions for band-limited functions using tighter norm bounds and majority voting.

problem Constructing reliable confidence regions for band-limited functions from noisy data.
method Improved norm bounds using Hoeffding's inequality and empirical Bernstein bound, majority voting to aggregate intervals.
result Confidence intervals retain their simultaneous coverage guarantee even when aggregated from random subsamples.

Novel analysis improves weighted majority vote in multiclass classification.

problem Improving the performance of weighted majority vote in multiclass classification.
method Analyzes expected risk of weighted majority vote, considering prediction correlations and provides a bound for efficient minimization.
result Minimization of the new bound typically does not degrade the test error of the ensemble.

Specialists outperform generalists in ensemble classification.

problem Determining the accuracy of an ensemble of classifiers when individual classifier accuracies are known.
method Proved upper and lower bounds on ensemble accuracy, constructed specialist and generalist classifiers.
result Upper and lower bounds on ensemble accuracy, practical implications for classifier construction.

Majority Vote is optimal for reliable data labeling under certain conditions.

problem Reliable data labeling requires aggregating multiple annotators' labels, but the optimality of Majority Vote is not well understood.
method Characterized conditions under which Majority Vote achieves the optimal label estimation error.
result Majority Vote optimally recovers labels for a given class distribution under tolerable annotation noise limits.

A conformal procedure improves CoT reasoning by aggregating reasoning paths and calibrating abstention rules.

problem Aggregation uncertainty in chain-of-thought reasoning makes correct answers less reliable.
method Introduces a conformal procedure for CoT reasoning that uses weighted score aggregation and abstention rules.
result Achieves higher selective accuracy with abstention, reducing confident-error rate.

RCAM-based ensemble combines binary classifiers using similarity and vote scheme.

problem Improving binary classification accuracy through ensemble methods.
method RCAM-based ensemble combining classifiers using similarity and recurrent consult-vote scheme.
result RCAM-based ensemble outperforms individual classifiers and majority voting.

We revisit the classical decision-theoretic problem of weighted expert voting from a statistical learning perspective. In particular, we examine the consistency (both asymptotic and finitary) of the optimal Nitzan-Paroush weighted majority and related rules. In the case of known expert competence levels, we give sharp …

2013-12-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Aggregates diverse zero-shot LLM outputs for better corporate disclosure classification.

problem Combining varied zero-shot LLM predictions for improved stock return prediction.
method Multi-prompt framework with three fixed zero-shot LLM classifiers, logistic meta-classifier aggregation.
result Aggregated model outperforms single classifiers and baseline models, increasing balanced accuracy from 0.566 to 0.606.

New method improves LLM judge accuracy by accounting for dependencies in aggregated binary labels.

problem Classical label aggregation methods fail to account for dependencies among LLM judges, leading to miscalibrated predictions.
method Dependence-aware models based on Ising graphical models and latent factors.
result The proposed method outperforms classical methods on real-world datasets, reducing excess risk.

In machine learning, Domain Adaptation (DA) arises when the distribution gen- erating the test (target) data differs from the one generating the learning (source) data. It is well known that DA is an hard task even under strong assumptions, among which the covariate-shift where the source and target distributions diver…

2012-12-11abs ↗pdf ↗

For classifying time series, a nearest-neighbor approach is widely used in practice with performance often competitive with or better than more elaborate methods such as neural networks, decision trees, and support vector machines. We develop theoretical justification for the effectiveness of nearest-neighbor-like clas…

2013-02-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Crowdsourcing is an effective tool for human-powered computation on many tasks challenging for computers. In this paper, we provide finite-sample exponential bounds on the error rate (in probability and in expectation) of hyperplane binary labeling rules under the Dawid-Skene crowdsourcing model. The bounds can be appl…

2013-07-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Prefix consistency improves model reliability by weighting answers based on their reproducibility.

problem Improving the reliability of large language models' reasoning traces.
method Use prefix consistency to weight candidate answers based on their reproducibility during regeneration.
result Prefix consistency is the best correctness predictor, reaching Standard MV plateau accuracy with up to 21x fewer tokens.

New algorithms minimize PAC-Bayesian C-Bound for majority voting, leading to scalable and accurate predictors.

problem Improving majority vote classifiers using PAC-Bayesian bounds.
method Directly optimizing PAC-Bayesian guarantees on the C-Bound with gradient descent.
result Self-bounding majority vote learning algorithms with scalable and accurate predictors.

In his seminal work, Schapire (1990) proved that weak classifiers could be improved to achieve arbitrarily high accuracy, but he never implied that a simple majority-vote mechanism could always do the trick. By comparing the asymptotic misclassification error of the majority-vote classifier with the average individual …

2013-07-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Boosting improves accuracy by combining weak learners into a voting classifier.

problem Boosting's theoretical performance is sub-optimal, especially for voting classifiers.
method Proposes a randomized boosting algorithm that outputs voting classifiers with a single logarithmic dependency on sample size.
result Randomized boosting achieves a generalization error with a single logarithmic dependency on the sample size.

Best-of-Majority improves inference performance in Pass@kk settings.

problem Inference in difficult tasks often underperforms with single-shot selection methods.
method Combining majority voting and Best-of-N, Best-of-Majority restricts candidates to high-frequency responses.
result Best-of-Majority achieves minimax optimal regret and outperforms other methods.

QAlign improves language model alignment with less compute, outperforming existing methods.

problem Improving language model performance with limited test-time computation.
method QAlign: sampling from optimal aligned distribution using Markov chain Monte Carlo.
result Consistent improvements over existing methods on various benchmarks.

Unified framework for certifying LLM reliability without extra supervision.

problem Improving reliability of large language models without additional supervision.
method Unified framework using majority voting and Martingale Majority Certificate (MMC).
result Certifiable inference in LLMs with statistical guarantees and adaptive stopping rules.

New PAC-Bayesian bounds for multi-view learning using Rényi divergence.

problem Applying PAC-Bayesian theory to multi-view learning.
method Introducing novel PAC-Bayesian bounds based on Rényi divergence for multi-view learning.
result Efficient optimization algorithms that align with theoretical bounds.

Wisdom of the crowd revealed a striking fact that the majority answer from a crowd is often more accurate than any individual expert. We observed the same story in machine learning--ensemble methods leverage this idea to combine multiple learning algorithms to obtain better classification performance. Among many popula…

2019-09-28abs ↗pdf ↗

New bounds on majority voting's accuracy for multi-class classification problems.

problem Determining the accuracy of majority voting for multi-class classification.
method Analyzing the majority voting function under different voter conditions and distributions.
result The error rate of majority voting exponentially decays or grows with the number of voters under certain conditions.

Ensemble methods are arguably the most trustworthy techniques for boosting the performance of machine learning models. Popular independent ensembles (IE) relying on naive averaging/voting scheme have been of typical choice for most applications involving deep neural networks, but they do not consider advanced collabora…

2017-06-12abs ↗pdf ↗

DAMVI algorithm improves imbalanced binary classification by adjusting weights of examples and classifiers.

problem Imbalanced binary classification tasks where minority class is underrepresented.
method DAMVI algorithm increases positive example weights and optimizes classifier weights using PAC-Bayesian C-Bound.
result DAMVI outperforms state-of-the-art models on various imbalanced datasets.

Optimal number of voters for a voting ensemble can be estimated from the distribution of classifier errors.

problem Finding the optimal number of voters for a voting ensemble to minimize error rate.
method Estimate the distribution of classifier errors and infer error rates for different numbers of voters.
result Lower-variance estimates of error rates can be obtained by inferring them for different numbers of voters.