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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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51102153204 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for confidence maximization

BestChanID identifies the channel with maximal capacity using training sequences.

problem Identifying the channel with maximal capacity among several discrete memoryless channels.
method Formulated as a multi-armed bandit problem, proposed a capacity estimator, and developed gap-elimination algorithms.
result Guaranteed to output the DMC with the largest capacity with a desired confidence.

Hypothesis testing is an important problem with applications in target localization, clinical trials etc. Many active hypothesis testing strategies operate in two phases: an exploration phase and a verification phase. In the exploration phase, selection of experiments is such that a moderate level of confidence on the …

2018-12-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Algorithm maximizes rewards with a budget and giving up option.

problem Sequential decision-making with stochastic rewards and resource consumption.
method Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithm for maximizing cumulative reward.
result Logarithmic regret bound with improved dependence on problem parameters.

This paper improves test-time adaptation for distribution shifts using confidence maximization and input transformation.

problem Improving deep networks' performance on data shifted from the training distribution.
method Proposes a novel loss function combining confidence maximization and batch-wise entropy maximization with an input transformation module.
result Significantly improves robustness of pretrained networks to corruptions on benchmarks like ImageNet-C.

Inexact acquisition solutions in BO lead to sublinear cumulative regret.

problem Inexact maximization of acquisition functions in Bayesian optimization.
method Define inaccuracy measure, establish cumulative regret bounds for GP-UCB and GP-TS.
result Inexact BO algorithms can achieve sublinear cumulative regret under appropriate inaccuracy conditions.

Adversarial training yields robust models against a specific threat model, e.g., LL_\infty adversarial examples. Typically robustness does not generalize to previously unseen threat models, e.g., other LpL_p norms, or larger perturbations. Our confidence-calibrated adversarial training (CCAT) tackles this problem by b…

2019-10-14abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper shows over-confidence in models isn't just due to over-parametrization.

problem Over-confidence in machine learning models, especially in binary classification.
method Theoretical analysis of logistic regression and other binary classification problems.
result Logistic regression is inherently over-confident in certain settings, but over-confidence is not always the case.

The paper identifies the best treatment to maximize NDPO, a key outcome in causal mediation analysis.

problem Identifying the treatment that maximizes the expected natural direct potential outcome (NDPO) in causal mediation analysis.
method Developed a fixed-confidence best-arm identification (BAI) algorithm based on the Track-and-Stop (TaS) framework, using a cutting-set method to solve a semi-infinite optimization problem.
result The proposed algorithm achieves sample-efficient identification with a high-probability correctness guarantee and asymptotic optimality.

Discriminatively trained neural classifiers can be trusted, only when the input data comes from the training distribution (in-distribution). Therefore, detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples is very important to avoid classification errors. In the context of OOD detection for image classification, one of the recen…

2019-04-27abs ↗pdf ↗

We describe Information Forests, an approach to classification that generalizes Random Forests by replacing the splitting criterion of non-leaf nodes from a discriminative one -- based on the entropy of the label distribution -- to a generative one -- based on maximizing the information divergence between the class-con…

2012-02-07abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper improves multi-class calibration methods using mutual information maximization-based binning.

problem Calibration of deep neural network predictions, especially for small prior classes.
method I-Max concept for binning, shared class-wise calibration strategy.
result Improves multi-class ranking and calibration performance using a small calibration set.

Optimizes energy efficiency in wireless sensor networks with limited information.

problem Maximizing energy efficiency in energy harvesting wireless sensor networks with limited channel state information.
method Modeling as a Multi-Armed Bandits problem and developing an Upper Confidence Bound algorithm.
result Significant gains in energy efficiency compared to benchmark schemes.

The ultimate goal of a supervised learning algorithm is to produce models constructed on the training data that can generalize well to new examples. In classification, functional margin maximization -- correctly classifying as many training examples as possible with maximal confidence --has been known to construct mode…

2020-01-28abs ↗pdf ↗

New approach to multi-armed bandit problem aims to maximize highest total reward.

problem Traditional multi-armed bandit problem objective of maximizing total reward is not suitable in certain applications.
method Adaptive explore-then-commit policy with confidence bounds and adaptive stopping criterion.
result Achieves asymptotic and worst-case regret bounds for the new objective.

We study the problem of online influence maximization in social networks. In this problem, a learner aims to identify the set of "best influencers" in a network by interacting with it, i.e., repeatedly selecting seed nodes and observing activation feedback in the network. We capitalize on an important property of the i…

2019-06-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Study optimizes dynamic product selection and pricing using censored preference feedback.

problem Maximizing revenue from dynamic assortment and pricing decisions.
method Proposes a censored multinomial logit model and LCB pricing strategy combined with UCB or TS product selection.
result Achieves optimal regret bounds for dynamic pricing and selection.

We discuss the problem of risk estimation in the classification problem, with specific focus on finding distributions that maximize the confidence intervals of risk estimation. We derived simple analytic approximations for the maximum bias of empirical risk for histogram classifier. We carry out a detailed study on usi…

2014-08-14abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method for semi-supervised learning with missing data using GMM and margin confidence.

problem Handling missing data in semi-supervised learning with classification uncertainty.
method Explicitly models missingness mechanism, uses margin confidence and Aranda Ordaz function, develops ECM algorithm.
result Effective reduction of bias and robustness in semi-supervised learning with substantial missing labels.

SMURF-THP improves Transformer Hawkes process models by providing uncertainty quantification.

problem Uncertainty quantification for Transformer Hawkes process predictions.
method Score matching for learning the score function of event arrival times.
result SMURF-THP outperforms likelihood-based methods in confidence calibration.

New method estimates animal density using acoustic data, accounting for unknown call identities.

problem Estimating animal density or call density from acoustic data with unknown call identities.
method Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization (MCEM) method to resolve unknown call identities.
result Estimates are within 15% of expert-constructed estimates and incorporate uncertainty about call identities.

Measuring mutual information from finite data is difficult. Recent work has considered variational methods maximizing a lower bound. In this paper, we prove that serious statistical limitations are inherent to any method of measuring mutual information. More specifically, we show that any distribution-free high-confide…

2018-11-10abs ↗pdf ↗

A new online learning problem, CAB, tackles matching platforms to maximize user satisfaction.

problem Maximizing matches in a matching platform can lead to dissatisfaction and churn.
method Developed CAB, an online learning problem that maximizes arm satisfaction, and analyzed algorithms like UCB and Thompson sampling.
result CAB-UCB achieves higher cumulative satisfaction than baselines in experiments.

Much recent research has been conducted in the area of Bayesian learning, particularly with regard to the optimization of hyper-parameters via Gaussian process regression. The methodologies rely chiefly on the method of maximizing the expected improvement of a score function with respect to adjustments in the hyper-par…

2014-05-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a new sampling method for online learning with cumulative oversampling.

problem Budgeted Influence Maximization in online learning.
method Cumulative Oversampling (CO) method for online learning.
result CO-based algorithm achieves comparable regret to UCB-based algorithms and performs similarly to Thompson Sampling.

The paper addresses uncertainty in demand prediction for dynamic pricing.

problem Uncertainty quantification in the demand function for dynamic pricing.
method Developed a debiased approach to construct accurate confidence intervals for the demand function.
result Asymptotic normality guarantee of the debiased estimator for the demand function.

In this paper, we study the stochastic combinatorial multi-armed bandit (CMAB) framework that allows a general nonlinear reward function, whose expected value may not depend only on the means of the input random variables but possibly on the entire distributions of these variables. Our framework enables a much larger c…

2016-10-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper aims to ensure reliable detection of out-of-distribution data with certifiable worst-case guarantees.

problem Deep neural networks are overconfident with OOD inputs, posing safety risks.
method Enforces low confidence and bounds in an ll_\infty-ball around OOD points using interval bound propagation (IBP).
result Certifiable worst-case guarantees for OOD detection are possible without significant loss in accuracy.

The paper tackles multi-armed bandits with vector losses, focusing on minimizing the \ell^\infty-norm of relative losses.

problem Minimizing the \ell^\infty-norm of relative losses in multi-armed bandits with multiple losses.
method Defines relative loss vector, derives lower bounds, and provides matching algorithms for both fixed-confidence best-arm identification and regret minimization.
result Derives problem-dependent sample complexity lower bound and matching algorithms for fixed-confidence best-arm identification.

Proposes a novel graph self-training method with EM regularization for semi-supervised node classification.

problem Handles noisy graph structures and feature spaces in semi-supervised node classification.
method Introduces an Expectation-Maximization (EM) regularization scheme for uncertainty-aware pseudo-label generation and model retraining.
result Significantly outperforms strong baselines by up to 2.5% in accuracy.

In this paper we describe a new algorithm called Fast Adaptive Sequencing Technique (FAST) for maximizing a monotone submodular function under a cardinality constraint kk whose approximation ratio is arbitrarily close to 11/e1-1/e, is O(log(n)log2(logk))O(\log(n) \log^2(\log k)) adaptive, and uses a total of O(nloglog(k))O(n \log\log(k)) queries. …

2019-07-14abs ↗pdf ↗

New pricing algorithm learns demand curves and optimizes prices in dynamic markets.

problem Dynamic pricing in markets with incomplete demand information and shifting conditions.
method Actor-Critic Information-Directed Pricing (ACIDP) using IDS algorithms and auditing procedures.
result ACIDP outperforms UCB and TS in market environment shifts.

Maximin UCB algorithm optimizes energy harvesting for sensor networks.

problem Optimizing energy harvesting for sensor nodes in varying environments.
method Modeling as Maximin Multi-Armed Bandits and proposing Maximin UCB algorithm.
result Maximin UCB algorithm achieves performance guarantees similar to UCB1.

We study an extension of the classic stochastic multi-armed bandit problem which involves multiple plays and Markovian rewards in the rested bandits setting. In order to tackle this problem we consider an adaptive allocation rule which at each stage combines the information from the sample means of all the arms, with t…

2020-01-30abs ↗pdf ↗