A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This study examines how fashion consumption affects self-confidence and buying behavior in Iranian consumers.
problem Understanding the role of self-confidence in fashion buying behavior.
method A questionnaire was used to collect data from 400 consumers in Tehran's clothing market. Structural equations and factor analysis were employed to test the model.
result Interest in fashion, personal taste, utilitarianism, and new products positively impact self-confidence, and self-confidence positively impacts fashion buying behavior.
In many countries information on expectations collected through consumer confidence surveys are used in macroeconomic policy formulation. Unfortunately, before doing so, the consistency of responses is often not taken into account, leading to biases creeping in and affecting the reliability of the indices hence created…
The age of big data has produced data sets that are computationally expensive to analyze and store. Algorithmic leveraging proposes that we sample observations from the original data set to generate a representative data set and then perform analysis on the representative data set. In this paper, we present efficient a…
We consider using an ensemble of binary classifiers for transductive prediction, when unlabeled test data are known in advance. We derive minimax optimal rules for confidence-rated prediction in this setting. By using PAC-Bayes analysis on these rules, we obtain data-dependent performance guarantees without distributio…
In this paper we study leveraging confidence information induced by adversarial training to reinforce adversarial robustness of a given adversarially trained model. A natural measure of confidence is ∥F(x)∥∞ (i.e. how confident F is about its prediction?). We start by analyzing an adversarial training…
Decision tree classifiers are a widely used tool in data stream mining. The use of confidence intervals to estimate the gain associated with each split leads to very effective methods, like the popular Hoeffding tree algorithm. From a statistical viewpoint, the analysis of decision tree classifiers in a streaming setti…
The paper identifies the best treatment to maximize NDPO, a key outcome in causal mediation analysis.
problem Identifying the treatment that maximizes the expected natural direct potential outcome (NDPO) in causal mediation analysis.
method Developed a fixed-confidence best-arm identification (BAI) algorithm based on the Track-and-Stop (TaS) framework, using a cutting-set method to solve a semi-infinite optimization problem.
result The proposed algorithm achieves sample-efficient identification with a high-probability correctness guarantee and asymptotic optimality.
Robust MDPs (RMDPs) can be used to compute policies with provable worst-case guarantees in reinforcement learning. The quality and robustness of an RMDP solution are determined by the ambiguity set---the set of plausible transition probabilities---which is usually constructed as a multi-dimensional confidence region. E…
Paper bridges statistical inference for DP-SGD, a privacy-preserving machine learning method.
problem Asymptotic statistical inference for Differentially Private Stochastic Gradient Descent (DP-SGD).
method Established asymptotic properties of SGD under randomized subsampling, extended to DP-SGD, proposed methods for constructing valid confidence intervals.
result Valid confidence intervals for DP-SGD output achieve nominal coverage rates while maintaining privacy.
Discriminatively trained neural classifiers can be trusted, only when the input data comes from the training distribution (in-distribution). Therefore, detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples is very important to avoid classification errors. In the context of OOD detection for image classification, one of the recen…
I introduce and analyse an anytime version of the Optimally Confident UCB (OCUCB) algorithm designed for minimising the cumulative regret in finite-armed stochastic bandits with subgaussian noise. The new algorithm is simple, intuitive (in hindsight) and comes with the strongest finite-time regret guarantees for a hori…
This paper presents approximate confidence intervals for each function of parameters in a Banach space based on a bootstrap algorithm. We apply kernel density approach to estimate the persistence landscape. In addition, we evaluate the quality distribution function estimator of random variables using integrated mean sq…
The paper proposes a method to construct confidence sets using likelihood ratios for sequential decision-making.
problem Constructing valid uncertainty estimates for unknown quantities in sequential decision-making.
method The method uses likelihood ratios to create any-time valid confidence sequences without specialized treatment for each application.
result The proposed confidence sets maintain the prescribed coverage in a model-agnostic manner and their size depends on the choice of estimator sequence.
We propose a new inferential framework for constructing confidence regions and testing hypotheses in statistical models specified by a system of high dimensional estimating equations. We construct an influence function by projecting the fitted estimating equations to a sparse direction obtained by solving a large-scale…
Predicting properties of nodes in a graph is an important problem with applications in a variety of domains. Graph-based Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL) methods aim to address this problem by labeling a small subset of the nodes as seeds and then utilizing the graph structure to predict label scores for the rest of the …
We design a general framework for answering adaptive statistical queries that focuses on providing explicit confidence intervals along with point estimates. Prior work in this area has either focused on providing tight confidence intervals for specific analyses, or providing general worst-case bounds for point estimate…
GPT-4 assesses its confidence in answering USMLE questions with and without feedback.
problem Understanding AI's performance in healthcare applications, especially in sensitive areas like medical education.
method Used a prompting technique to evaluate GPT-4's confidence scores before and after answering USMLE questions, categorized into with and without feedback.
result Feedback influences relative confidence but doesn't consistently increase or decrease it.