A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Bayesian method improves EEG source imaging accuracy by estimating skull conductivity.
Paper proposes a neural network for estimating brain conductivity without segmentation.
Physics-informed neural networks improve subsurface transport parameter estimation from sparse data.
Bayesian method improves EEG source localization and estimates skull conductivity.
In this paper, we propose a random projection approach to estimate variance in kernel ridge regression. Our approach leads to a consistent estimator of the true variance, while being computationally more efficient. Our variance estimator is optimal for a large family of kernels, including cubic splines and Gaussian ker…
DIN framework directly models hydraulic conductivity and uncertainty.
Inverse modeling for the estimation of non-Gaussian hydraulic conductivity fields in subsurface flow and solute transport models remains a challenging problem. This is mainly due to the non-Gaussian property, the non-linear physics, and the fact that many repeated evaluations of the forward model are often required. In…
The paper provides an algorithm for the risk estimation when a company selects an outsourcing service provider for innovation product. Calculations are based on expert surveys conducted among customers and among providers of outsourcing. The surveys assessed the degree of materiality of species at risk.
Improved locally private sparse estimation with multiple samples per user.
Density ratio estimation is a vital tool in both machine learning and statistical community. However, due to the unbounded nature of density ratio, the estimation procedure can be vulnerable to corrupted data points, which often pushes the estimated ratio toward infinity. In this paper, we present a robust estimator wh…
For purposes of Value-at-Risk estimation, we consider several multivariate families of heavy-tailed distributions, which can be seen as multidimensional versions of Paretian stable and Student's t distributions allowing different marginals to have different tail thickness. After a discussion of relevant estimation and …
In this paper we study nonconvex penalization using Bernstein functions whose first-order derivatives are completely monotone. The Bernstein function can induce a class of nonconvex penalty functions for high-dimensional sparse estimation problems. We derive a thresholding function based on the Bernstein penalty and di…
There is an increasing interest in estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in randomized and observational studies. However, little research has been conducted to understand heterogeneity in an instrumental variables study. In this work, we present a method to estimate heterogeneous causal effects using an instrumen…
New method estimates mutual information using normalizing flows.
New method estimates active subspaces for jump-discontinuous functions.
Develops asymptotic analysis for RandNLA sampling estimators in least-squares problems.
DACE estimates covariance from compressed data, improving accuracy.
Proposes a method to optimize budget allocation for collecting and analyzing streaming data.
Develops a method to estimate optimal policy value in online learning.
Polynomial mixing times for simulated tempering in mixture sampling problems.
In the present paper, a fuzzy logic based method is combined with wavelet decomposition to develop a step-by-step dynamic hybrid model for the estimation of financial time series. Empirical tests on fuzzy regression, wavelet decomposition as well as the new hybrid model are conducted on the well known index fin…
We propose a novel approach to parameter estimation for simulator-based statistical models with intractable likelihood. Our proposed method involves recursive application of kernel ABC and kernel herding to the same observed data. We provide a theoretical explanation regarding why the approach works, showing (for the p…
New framework estimates staged tree models using hierarchical clustering on the probability simplex.
Improves training GANs by escaping limit cycles.
Paper improves risk estimation for extreme events.
According to the definition of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), contributing banks should give fair estimates of their own borrowing costs in the interbank market. Between 2007 and 2009, several banks made inappropriate submissions of LIBOR, sometimes motivated by profit-seeking from their trading positions. …
We conduct an axiomatic study of the problem of estimating the strength of a known causal relationship between a pair of variables. We propose that an estimate of causal strength should be based on the conditional distribution of the effect given the cause (and not on the driving distribution of the cause), and study d…
Study estimates treatment effect on survival outcomes using targeted maximum likelihood estimation.
Risk management is an important practice in the banking industry. In this paper we develop a new methodology to estimate and predict the probability of default (PD) based on the rating transition matrices, which relates the rating transition matrices to the macroeconomic variables. Our method can overcome the shortcomi…
Two tests identify heterogeneous components in distributed learning.
Develops a new density ratio estimator for causal inference.
Selective inference framework for CART trees to control error rates and coverage.
New method improves estimation of neural network aleatoric uncertainty.
Bayesian modeling predicts hydroxide ion conductivity in polymer membranes.
Paper characterizes DLN distribution, its properties, and estimation methods.
To analyse a very large data set containing lengthy variables, we adopt a sequential estimation idea and propose a parallel divide-and-conquer method. We conduct several conventional sequential estimation procedures separately, and properly integrate their results while maintaining the desired statistical properties. A…
The paper analyzes risk estimation methods and derives bounds for OCE risk.
Under Markovian assumptions, we leverage a Central Limit Theorem (CLT) for the empirical measure in the test statistic of the composite hypothesis Hoeffding test so as to establish weak convergence results for the test statistic, and, thereby, derive a new estimator for the threshold needed by the test. We first show t…
Local network community detection is the task of finding a single community of nodes concentrated around few given seed nodes in a localized way. Conductance is a popular objective function used in many algorithms for local community detection. This paper studies a continuous relaxation of conductance. We show that con…
We propose a novel, efficient approach for distributed sparse learning in high-dimensions, where observations are randomly partitioned across machines. Computationally, at each round our method only requires the master machine to solve a shifted ell_1 regularized M-estimation problem, and other workers to compute the g…
A new estimator for evaluating policies in unknown environments.
Hidden Markov Models analyze mobile health data to identify APNS states.
Study models forest transitions with deep learning for parameter estimation.
Extended Gauss-Markov theorem for linear estimation with bounded bias.
We introduce Graphical TREX (GTREX), a novel method for graph estimation in high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models. By conducting neighborhood selection with TREX, GTREX avoids tuning parameters and is adaptive to the graph topology. We compare GTREX with standard methods on a new simulation set-up that is designed…
We study the parameter estimation problem for a varying index coefficient model in high dimensions. Unlike the most existing works that iteratively estimate the parameters and link functions, based on the generalized Stein's identity, we propose computationally efficient estimators for the high-dimensional parameters w…
Paper analyzes high-dimensional GMM for SSL, showing RMLE near-optimal performance.
The modified Cholesky decomposition is commonly used for precision matrix estimation given a specified order of random variables. However, the order of variables is often not available or cannot be pre-determined. In this work, we propose to address the variable order issue in the modified Cholesky decomposition for sp…